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Post by dstevenson on Apr 20, 2015 9:58:08 GMT -5
They've added zero value to investors since the partnership, we are at a 50 percent cut. Say something to attract new investors and keep current ones happy.
For the people who got in at iPo price, in 10 years they are down 60%
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Post by bradleysbest on Apr 20, 2015 10:01:56 GMT -5
I know a few who bought in at the high teens! OUCH
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Apr 20, 2015 10:14:08 GMT -5
They've added zero value to investors since the partnership, we are at a 50 percent cut. Say something to attract new investors and keep current ones happy. For the people who got in at iPo price, in 10 years they are down 60% Watch, you'll see a rash of Form 4 filings after the close!  |
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Post by dstevenson on Apr 20, 2015 10:14:29 GMT -5
I been long and keep everyone to calm down, not gonna lie but I am starting to be concerned to be honest
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Post by nugjuice on Apr 20, 2015 10:21:10 GMT -5
I been long and keep everyone to calm down, not gonna lie but I am starting to be concerned to be honest Yes, we are heading into maximum pain territory. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like there's going to be any reason for the pain to stop over the next few months. Once even the most bullish on these boards starts questioning their sanity you'll know the time in near. |
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Post by benh on Apr 20, 2015 11:43:13 GMT -5
I am questioning my sanity.
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Post by _neil on Apr 20, 2015 12:53:02 GMT -5
I am starting to question the science too on this. Maybe the 'embarassment of riches' was a completely deluded, false statement. I don't know enough about the science at the molecular level but maybe technosphere is only good for insulin and nothing else. I believe Afrezza is make or break and the management has nothing up its sleeve. I thought they would have enough customers to support their valuation at a reasonable multiple to sales but now I am quite sure my theory is wrong. Al Mann doesn't care about returns and the current management is all too happy to gorge while they still can. My DD indicated a conservative $3B valuation but that assumed the management has the ability and motivation to make the company succeed. I no longer think that's true.
I have zero hopes of closing my position in the green now. My only indecision is about what loss I will forgive myself. This board has been helpful source of info for me in the past but with the lack of any concrete information from the company, it's starting to become a cheerleading squad.
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Post by bradleysbest on Apr 20, 2015 13:00:32 GMT -5
Don't agree with your assumption but do FEEL your pain as a shareholder! Hopefully we get into our 2 minute offense (DTC) & MNKD announces a TS partnership or plan that will get us into the Red Zone!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2015 13:00:34 GMT -5
Funny. People hit their first "rough patch" with this stock, and then criticize the entire board for being a cheerleading squad. When I suspect people are either bears in wolves clothing or otherwise weak hands, I write their names down. Looks like I'm checking off quite a few names today, with my own DD.
Sish Boom Ba!
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Post by cubonwallstreet on Apr 20, 2015 13:03:49 GMT -5
So Friday, most everything was okay. Most were still okay about soft launch, current script numbers, and upcoming adverts, with the always looming possibility of Technosphere news. Now, down 2% today, and the earth is coming to an end. I understand the $5 barrier and that it did provide a significant resistance. But, nothing else has changed. What is management supposed to say today--or 3 weeks ago or 3 months ago-- to help this stock moving forward? Nothing. The only thing moving this stock up will be positive sales and/or Technosphere news. Nothing else. Nothing has changed.
You have two options: Quit being so shortsighted or quit whining and sell your shares. This is the stock market. No promises are made. Nobody is going to hold your hand.
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Post by bradleysbest on Apr 20, 2015 13:06:57 GMT -5
Cub... some feel the kid on your avatar is running MNKD & the picture is an actual photo from the MNKD offices in Valencia!
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Post by cubonwallstreet on Apr 20, 2015 13:13:49 GMT -5
Their management's scrutiny reminds me that of a professional coach. They get very little praise when good things happen; and get all the criticism when things go badly.
If Afrezza/MNKD does fail in the future, we can look at their management and conclude they could have done better. But as of now, they have done everything they have said they would do.
Either way, Afrezza is in SNY's hands now. It is their launch. I am not sure what so many are looking for MNKD to do or say.
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Post by mnholdem on Apr 20, 2015 13:21:10 GMT -5
I am starting to question the science too on this. Maybe the 'embarassment of riches' was a completely deluded, false statement. I don't know enough about the science at the molecular level but maybe technosphere is only good for insulin and nothing else. I believe Afrezza is make or break and the management has nothing up its sleeve...... I have zero hopes of closing my position in the green now. My only indecision is about what loss I will forgive myself. This board has been helpful source of info for me in the past but with the lack of any concrete information from the company, it's starting to become a cheerleading squad. If I had them available, I would post the graphs that MannKind's scientists produced showing the effectiveness of using Technosphere for at least four different peptides/API - all showed a similar PK/PD profile to Afrezza. If you no longer believe in the science, it would appear that you did not conduct as much DD as you should have.
Also, if you have been paying attention to the anecdotal evidence being published by first adopters, by now you will have heard the phrase "dialed in". It's used in regard to dosing. Each patient will have different needs and will require different dosing. Sales isn't slow because of lack of demand - it's because endocronologists and PCP's (perhaps even Sanofi) first want to FULLY understand how Afrezza works and how to accurately determine patient dosing before they'll begin writing a lot of prescriptions.
I cannot emphasize enough how important the educational phase of this launch is in relation to the long-term success of Afrezza. I also think that once physicians realize its low risk related to hypoglycemic excursions, they'll begin prescribing Afrezza en masse.
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Regarding the pipeline and further news on oncology, pulmonary and pain medications, Hakan gave you a reasonable timeline at the last earnings conference. Any announcement of a new pipeline partner should be considered a welcome surprise at best. If you are EXPECTING partnership announcement(s) then you haven't been paying attention to company guidance.
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The science hasn't changed. The only thing that has is your sentiment toward management. While that is understandable, it is short-sighted in my opinion.
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Post by tripoley on Apr 20, 2015 13:29:23 GMT -5
Funny. People hit their first "rough patch" with this stock, and then criticize the entire board for being a cheerleading squad. When I suspect people are either bears in wolves clothing or otherwise weak hands, I write their names down. Looks like I'm checking off quite a few names today, with my own DD. Sish Boom Ba! This town needs an enema. ;-) |
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Post by BlueCat on Apr 20, 2015 13:35:03 GMT -5
I don't like the stock price. While buying high and selling low would make me an idiot, holding to an EOY at $8, or worse, paying opportunity cost to hold 2 or more years just for even exit would make me a consummate idiot. Especially in this market where a sold loss can be written off against gains. Opportunity cost? Priceless.
IMHO the reality here is that its coming. And a brief announcement on EU or line 2/3 approval now will do nothing but rinse and repeat initial launch dynamic. Shorts pump up expectation on sales, and then walk it back down. Cha-ching. Why? Cause there won't be anything to sustain the price (even if I think it was actually a more fair price.) An announcement would have to be something of perpetual significance (e.g. BO, sales deal with small mideast or asian country, etc)
So what's the short thesis here? Its a more advanced one. Every person, every company can and does make stupid mistakes. Poor execution. Due to ignorance, hubris, different motivations, etc. While I do think there's some case on different motivates (Old Mann doesn't need the dough, and other guys with their bonuses don't need to watch the daily like we are), I think they are executing according to plan, and with intent to succeed.
But most importantly, I still believe SNY really needs this to succeed. And fast. Not in like, 2 years. MNKD brought vision, disruption, technology. SNY brought GTM. And they are doing it correctly - preparing production, channel and providers before unleashing the Blitz Krieg. They are in it to win. And they will.
Its cooking. Its coming. !@#$ "patience". But I wait anyway.
(If I actually had patience, I wouldn't be long and on social media every day. I'd trust in my account alerts and check in once every few weeks instead.)
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