|
Post by savzak on Apr 20, 2015 13:51:37 GMT -5
I am starting to question the science too on this. Maybe the 'embarassment of riches' was a completely deluded, false statement. I don't know enough about the science at the molecular level but maybe technosphere is only good for insulin and nothing else. I believe Afrezza is make or break and the management has nothing up its sleeve. I thought they would have enough customers to support their valuation at a reasonable multiple to sales but now I am quite sure my theory is wrong. Al Mann doesn't care about returns and the current management is all too happy to gorge while they still can. My DD indicated a conservative $3B valuation but that assumed the management has the ability and motivation to make the company succeed. I no longer think that's true. I have zero hopes of closing my position in the green now. My only indecision is about what loss I will forgive myself. This board has been helpful source of info for me in the past but with the lack of any concrete information from the company, it's starting to become a cheerleading squad. poorneil,
This is what you said on Feb. 10:
All I know is I am not repeating a mistake. I did not buy more in the low 5s (it would have at the very least brought down my average price). If the shorts do stage a big attack, I will keep adding to my position. I might not agree with the general estimate of the PPS on this board but I am certain this company deserves far greater valuation than the paltry 3B
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/user/703/recent#ixzz3XsO32zos
What has happened since then to make you "question the science"? Is it the fact that no Technosphere applications have been announced yet? Is it the slow uptake in scripts on the slow launch? What happened since Feb. 10 to make you "quite sure" your theory was wrong? The additional insider selling? You have "zero hopes of closing" your position at a profit? Why? If I believed there was "zero chance" of getting out at a profit, I'd sell today because the obvious implication of that belief is that MNKD can go nowhere but down from here.
What I actually believe is that the lack of news coupled with the slow uptake in scripts and the fact that SNY is committed to keeping a lid on its plans all combine to make for nervous longs and shorts eager to take advantage of that anxiety. But I see nothing that has definitively changed, though I must once again admit that I've been surprised by the PPS. However, I still have every reason to hope that every long on this board will be able to close their respective positions at a nice profit, regardless of their current cost basis. That being said, I'd sell some (and may) if I become convinced that the PPS is likely to trend substantially lower from here, just for the trade.
|
|
|
Post by mrhaigs on Apr 20, 2015 14:02:08 GMT -5
Don't agree with your assumption but do FEEL your pain as a shareholder! Hopefully we get into our 2 minute offense (DTC) & MNKD announces a TS partnership or plan that will get us into the Red Zone! They already made the announcement that was supposed to get us into the END ZONE last summer. Not happening with this current rollout
|
|
|
Post by gamblerjag on Apr 20, 2015 14:07:59 GMT -5
I guess i understand the frustration ... but look at everything that has taken place all the timelines that were met.. kind of silly to doubt them otherwise!
|
|
|
Post by gomnkd on Apr 20, 2015 14:08:06 GMT -5
I earlier believed 100% in the science. Now it is 110%. This is a great time to add if you are underweight and spread it out until Aug. It is just hard to know what catalysts will show up. This stock can go up $5 in 5 days. It is a bipolar stock.
I thought MNKD holders are no stranger to volatility.
|
|
|
Post by coco on Apr 20, 2015 14:16:45 GMT -5
Just look at Regeneron's history. Enough said.
|
|
|
Post by dstevenson on Apr 20, 2015 14:21:21 GMT -5
I see what some people are saying, it's true nothing has changed since Friday but seeing it dip 2% and seeing it below $5 is painful. I am not rich and don't portray myself as rich so whatever I have invested to me Is s lot of money.
With that said, if you guys noticed it's the same sad song playing time after time, it really is. Which is why I am asking, where is the shareholder confidence?
When we kept getting all the crl, that dropped prices, give it time we'll get it together When we got positive adcom, it jumped huge, the only time When we got approved, stock went down. Give it time we'll get a partners s this thing will explode When we got partner, it went down. Give it time we'll explode once it launches It's launched, now we need to wait for people to get educated
Granted, this is about a 1 year time frame, I been in this for s few years but not in this since ipo like some. Just this year I've lost about 15% in my portfolio due to this. I believe in the science and seen how happy people are with it, but seriously enough with the excuses from the company and let's start selling this damn thing. I hope it doesn't turn into a niche product and becomes a must have for diabetics as I am readying great results and great life changing expierences for patients.
I am only an investor and not a patient, so when we invest, we all want to see our money GROW, with things lined up the way it is, I just don't understand why it's not moving
|
|
|
Post by als57 on Apr 20, 2015 14:27:08 GMT -5
We might want to take into consideration that the company is in the mandated 6 week quite period prior to the CC.
|
|
|
Post by als57 on Apr 20, 2015 14:28:30 GMT -5
And I neglected to state that is when a company is most vulnerable to shorts, when there cannot be news releases!
|
|
|
Post by gamblerjag on Apr 20, 2015 14:38:50 GMT -5
That would be the best news yet. quiet period!!
|
|
|
Post by thsloppy on Apr 20, 2015 14:43:12 GMT -5
they are always in a quiet period
|
|
|
Post by newmnkdinvestor on Apr 20, 2015 14:56:34 GMT -5
I am too green (rookie in investing) to understand why exactly the stock price is where it is. I only can read whats out there and then take its for what its worth. I do feel lucky to be getting in at these levels and have put cash a side for each price dip I am willing to purchase at. I know a lot of you have been through thick and thin with this stock and feel for you.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2015 15:01:18 GMT -5
Afrezza has only been on the market a few months. Way too early to deem it a failure (or success for that matter). Proof ultimately is in the performance. We see the results early adopters are having and at this point in the game, albeit with a small sample size, comparing Afrezza to RAAs is an insult to Afrezza. The results are not in the same league. For those who invested before FDA approval, ask yourself why you bought stock in Mannkind. Determining an even moderately accurate valuation for Mannkind pre-FDA approval would have been a back of the napkin or dartboard guess at best. I can think of only two reasons why one would have bought the stock pre-FDA approval: 1- Al Mann 2- Afrezza's potential to change the lives of people with diabetes in a way NO other product has since Banting & Best discovered insulin 1921 Here is a link from an interview Amy Tenderich did with Al in 2009. Good article because He speaks to why Afrezza is unique and why it is so effective. www.healthline.com/diabetesmine/the-truth-about-afresa-inhalable-insulin-a-chat-with-al-mann#2Between now and late fall, here are some things that should happen to help turn the tide: * Key physicians (KOLs as they are know in pharma industry) receiving training via off site meetings (dinner programs and other events NOT in their office) * Lines 2&3 approved * 12 unit approved * ADA Scientific Sessions in June * DCT advertising * Convertible debt addressed / resolved * Real growth in NRx
|
|
|
Post by liane on Apr 20, 2015 15:09:15 GMT -5
On days like this, I keep reminding myself that in 5 years or so, the current diabetes treatment protocol will be totally unrecognizable to me. That will be the impact of this drug. So as joey would have you do, turn off the computer and come back in a few years. (Apologies to the short term traders).
|
|
|
Post by kball on Apr 20, 2015 15:21:32 GMT -5
I am starting to question the science too on this. Maybe the 'embarassment of riches' was a completely deluded, false statement. I don't know enough about the science at the molecular level but maybe technosphere is only good for insulin and nothing else. I believe Afrezza is make or break and the management has nothing up its sleeve...... I have zero hopes of closing my position in the green now. My only indecision is about what loss I will forgive myself. This board has been helpful source of info for me in the past but with the lack of any concrete information from the company, it's starting to become a cheerleading squad. If I had them available, I would post the graphs...
----
Regarding the pipeline and further news on oncology, pulmonary and pain medications,
----
The science hasn't changed. The only thing that has is your sentiment toward management. While that is understandable, it is short-sighted in my opinion.
I think it may be useful to point out the area wasnt so much "oncology", as it was meds to minimize discomfort from symptoms related to cancer drugs IIRC
|
|
|
Post by _neil on Apr 20, 2015 15:55:26 GMT -5
I have no doubt about the science for Afrezza's effectiveness for Insulin delivery. I am questioning my own assumption that Technosphere has potential applications outside Afrezza and more importatntly feel that the enthusiasm in the general market is way below my expectations. I was assuming a 5% penetration in the potential market for a year but that seems like too high a target going by how little even the diabetics I know are informed about the product and by the relentless insider selling.
I am grown up enough to recognize that all this is 'whining' since that's all I can do cos I can't stomach the loss as of now.
|
|