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Post by kc on May 8, 2015 12:50:22 GMT -5
Personally I think that management has checked out on us. I was very disappointed with the call and the lack of excitement from all three management members. I like Al Mann Great guy and a genius but he has lost a step and shouldn't have been addressing the group if we have new leadership. Yes he is the chairman but still he should have just been there to say hello and turn things over to Hakan. I really want to believe in MannKind but you don't even get reply responses back to emails you write to Matt. They lack for their communication skills to the shareholders.
I still think the product wins in the end even with the crappy management team. Something good will happen for all of us who have stayed long. Sometimes you wonder if its the other shoe to drop and they are just waiting for the right time for it to happen. Lack of details is either on purpose or they are disorganized. I think its on purpose and perhaps we will learn more when they hold the meeting at the Danbury facility.
My thoughts: 1) First lets give credit to where it is due. MNKD mgmt is responsible for production, inventory etc. So far we've not heard of any quality issues, plant shut down or products returned as defective etc. This they have it in their control and have done a great job. 2) Sales and mktg are outside of their control, they might have given inputs to SNY. SNY has to work with the current system to get it moving. I don't know what prevented them from doing a lease of spiro with payment due when it is used. Issue is Afrezza is life and death for MNKD and just a rounding error for Sanofi. Even for AL Mann this is the first mass market product he has developed. I'm glad Hakan mentioned about Afrezza being a pull product, not a push one. DTC will validate this and I agree with him. The French wont be taking advice from a start-up outfit. 3) Matt's non-dilution comment without giving specifics is borderline criminal. 4) MNKD still has no sense of urgency about controlling cash burn outside partnership. Hiring CMO is boneheaded move when nothing was accomplished regarding TS platform for last several years. Only thing going good for us is current set of patients: Sam Finta, Amy T and others. We'll bottom out (don't know at what price) prior to DTC. Forget the 10 bagger. I'll happy to exit major portion at post-approval highs sometime in next 3 years. There still lot of downside left. This board appears only 50% bearish and trending down, we need that sentiment to bottom out first.
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Post by kc on May 8, 2015 12:52:52 GMT -5
I've been in business a long time and when you present as a leader, you state the issue and confidently state how you are addressing it. Then you execute. I get no sense of urgency. It was clear things are slower than expected. Scripts in the 200's this many weeks into launch with the size of Sanofi's sales force is not good. I don't mind stating why but the "We are exploring this, exploring that"... gives nothing of substance. The best statement of the call was when Matt emphatically declared there would be no dilution and basically stated he had plenty of options for the financing . It was strong, stood out and gave confidence. Hakan worries me as a CEO. I felt like the analysts left without their questions completely answered. There is more to the story they are not telling us? Perhaps we will learn the day of the shareholders meeting. Maybe they are holding back or know that plan today. Today's call seemed like the tanked it on purpose.
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Post by seanismorris on May 8, 2015 12:59:45 GMT -5
I wouldn't say MannKinds management 'tanked it' on purpose, but from the tone they knew it would be poorly received.
With the Sanofi partnership, I think management just figured out that Sanofi put them in a chastity belt and told them to sit in the corner.
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 13:02:20 GMT -5
It all about sales. With good numbers management could have done no wrong. With bad numbers they could do no right.
The bright spot in all this is that sales will eventually increase. Hopefully!
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Post by seanismorris on May 8, 2015 13:08:10 GMT -5
Yes, Mannkinds management used the word 'hope' a lot also. That's not speaking from a position of strength...
We have a long wait ahead of us to get back to $10. It will interesting to see what the new bullish price targets are...my guess $7 (from 10$? from the currently most bullish analysts)
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Post by nemzter on May 8, 2015 13:08:41 GMT -5
It all about sales. With good numbers management could have done no wrong. With bad numbers they could do no right. The bright spot in all this is that sales will eventually increase. Hopefully! This ^^^ We just all need to be a little patient (I keep telling myself this everyday) We already have proof that it works, thanks to all the early adopters. But this management team needs to be replaced, I really hope this happens sooner rather than later via a buyout or something that ensures that us shareholders benefit.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 13:09:32 GMT -5
Curious why they even agreed to speak at the BoA event. What else can they talk about at this point?
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 13:11:01 GMT -5
Sales have to start to increase. Sanofi is a big company with big overhead and 220 NRx / week for now might be OK but that # needs to start to grow. If Sanofi is putting Afrezza on the back burner in favor of Toujeo then Afrezza becomes less and less relevant with time which would be too bad as it appears to me that it is a once in a lifetime product.
Management on the call this morning could have communicated all the same information in a much more professional manner. No idea if they tanked it on purpose but personally from a pride and integrity standpoint, I would not have wanted my name tied to their performance as it did not even qualify as bush-league.
I do wonder if analysts left the call scratching their heads as the responses left them with nothing more than thinking management was incompetent, lying or hiding something which should fuel the rumor mill.
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Post by trenddiver on May 8, 2015 13:11:16 GMT -5
My takeaways,
1. I've been saying for a longtime that Matt is way past his level of competency, as the CFO of a public company. He gave no answers or clarity regarding the company's finances (he couldn't or wouldn't even give a forecast for end of the year cash). Any investor would have to walk away shaking his head after hearing what Matt had to say. 2. The reasons given for the slow run up of scripts is an example of how ill-prepared both Sanofi and Mannkind were for the launch. Someone at Sanofi needs to take responsibility for leading the effort to remove the impediments, whatever it takes. 3. The information given about Technosphere's next focus was basically the same info given at the last CC. Wondering why not one analyst asked any questions about the $9 million spent on R&D in the last quarter. Just what the heck are they doing? 4. Hakan's presentation was empty of any important strategic insight about Mannkind. He had nothing to say. Not one piece of info for investors to feel optimistic about the future of the company or any rational to justify MNKD's current market cap of $1.6 billion and dropping every week. Just wonder whether Hakan has what it takes to be the CEO of a multi billion dollar company.
A disappointed TREND
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Post by mnkdorbust on May 8, 2015 13:14:53 GMT -5
The management team at best is amateurish. They are out of their league and better step up soon.
Long, Frustrated and in the red.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 13:18:10 GMT -5
Sales have to start to increase. Sanofi is a big company with big overhead and 220 NRx / week for now might be OK but that # needs to start to grow. If Sanofi is putting Afrezza on the back burner in favor of Toujeo then Afrezza becomes less and less relevant with time which would be too bad as it appears to me that it is a once in a lifetime product. Management on the call this morning could have communicated all the same information in a much more professional manner. No idea if they tanked it on purpose but personally from a pride and integrity standpoint, I would not have wanted my name tied to their performance as it did not even qualify as bush-league. I do wonder if analysts left the call scratching their heads as the responses left them with nothing more than thinking management was incompetent, lying or hiding something which should fuel the rumor mill. The monthly numbers dont look too bad. Considering the impediments to prescribe that were explained, what would you expect? Its still growing.
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Post by kc on May 8, 2015 13:26:27 GMT -5
I hope they do a crash course on Dale Carnegie as the didn't win any friends or influence any people today. No excitement or charisma from them today. I hope they read this board on a regular basis but suspect they don't even know it exists. Sales have to start to increase. Sanofi is a big company with big overhead and 220 NRx / week for now might be OK but that # needs to start to grow. If Sanofi is putting Afrezza on the back burner in favor of Toujeo then Afrezza becomes less and less relevant with time which would be too bad as it appears to me that it is a once in a lifetime product. Management on the call this morning could have communicated all the same information in a much more professional manner. No idea if they tanked it on purpose but personally from a pride and integrity standpoint, I would not have wanted my name tied to their performance as it did not even qualify as bush-league. I do wonder if analysts left the call scratching their heads as the responses left them with nothing more than thinking management was incompetent, lying or hiding something which should fuel the rumor mill.
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Post by seanismorris on May 8, 2015 13:26:37 GMT -5
I'm not sure we should be blaming Matt, he seems to be the most coherent of the bunch. I would characterize the companies finances as muddled.
The problem is we really need a copy of the partnership agreement. There are so many things that Matt's is unable to explain because of some restrictions we are unaware of. Keeping it from investors should be illegal! There is no 'competitive edge' from keeping it secret. We need to know the finances of the deal...like I said earlier, keeping the terms of the milestone payments from us is ridiculous.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 13:31:31 GMT -5
I've been in the industry for a long time. The numbers suck, soft launch or no. W/W Trx for the past few weeks as follows with 224 reported this am. 178 , 177, 173, 210, 226, 224 Maybe Sanofi will start to push hard in the next 2-3 months but 224 NRx / Wk doesn't mean squat for a company the size of Sanofi unless it is one datapoint on a progression of consistent growth which so far has not been the case. And yes, I am long since 2009 Maybe other forces at play or time / effort being invested in label change, approval in another country and a sales / marketing reload in US after but for now, I have not seen anything concrete that is giving me confidence from MNKD management. I have not abandoned the ship but by fall, if we are singing the same tune then it is over. Brandencourt has a big ship to sail, phucking around with 5HP dingy is not going to influence the direction of an ocean going freighter. Impediments? Go tell a Sanofi Jr. Product manager to get bids from 25 spiro manufacturers for 500 units. Go on web, print out 500 copies of the 2015 FEV reimbursement schedule w/HCPCs codes and hand them out. Prior authorization: Software programs handle this now at pharmacy so process can be automated to some extent. Not perfect but not impediment it once was. Sales have to start to increase. Sanofi is a big company with big overhead and 220 NRx / week for now might be OK but that # needs to start to grow. If Sanofi is putting Afrezza on the back burner in favor of Toujeo then Afrezza becomes less and less relevant with time which would be too bad as it appears to me that it is a once in a lifetime product. Management on the call this morning could have communicated all the same information in a much more professional manner. No idea if they tanked it on purpose but personally from a pride and integrity standpoint, I would not have wanted my name tied to their performance as it did not even qualify as bush-league. I do wonder if analysts left the call scratching their heads as the responses left them with nothing more than thinking management was incompetent, lying or hiding something which should fuel the rumor mill. The monthly numbers dont look too bad. Considering the impediments to prescribe that were explained, what would you expect? Its still growing.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 13:36:32 GMT -5
I'm not sure we should be blaming Matt, he seems to be the most coherent of the bunch. I would characterize the companies finances as muddled. The problem is we really need a copy of the partnership agreement. There are so many things that Matt's is unable to explain because of some restrictions we are unaware of. Keeping it from investors should be illegal! There is no 'competitive edge' from keeping it secret. We need to know the finances of the deal...like I said earlier, keeping the terms of the milestone payments from us is ridiculous. I put a copy of the partnership agreement on the right hand side of the -***-, just above the -***-. You can find it there for a good read.
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