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Post by trenddiver on May 8, 2015 13:37:26 GMT -5
I hope you shareholders going to the ASM hold management's feet to the fire regarding all of the comments expressed on this thread. Questioners should not be lobbing any softball questions and should back off until we get the answers we deserve as investors.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 13:37:42 GMT -5
I've been in the industry for a long time. The numbers suck, soft launch or no. W/W Trx for the past few weeks as follows with 224 reported this am. 178 , 177, 173, 210, 226, 224 Maybe Sanofi will start to push hard in the next 2-3 months but 224 NRx / Wk doesn't mean squat for a company the size of Sanofi unless it is one datapoint on a progression of consistent growth which so far has not been the case. And yes, I am long since 2009 Maybe other forces at play or time / effort being invested in label change, approval in another country and a sales / marketing reload in US after but for now, I have not seen anything concrete that is giving me confidence from MNKD management. I have not abandoned the ship but by fall, if we are singing the same tune then it is over. Brandencourt has a big ship to sail, phucking around with 5HP dingy is not going to influence the direction of an ocean going freighter. Impediments? Go tell a Sanofi Jr. Product manager to get bids from 25 spiro manufacturers for 500 units. Go on web, print out 500 copies of the 2015 FEV reimbursement schedule w/HCPCs codes and hand them out. Prior authorization: Software programs handle this now at pharmacy so process can be automated to some extent. Not perfect but not impediment it once was. The monthly numbers dont look too bad. Considering the impediments to prescribe that were explained, what would you expect? Its still growing. If you're in the business, then you should know that early numbers are pretty meaningless. You'd also know that week over week numbers are equally meaningless. Follow the mo/mo trend.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 13:50:27 GMT -5
I've been in the industry for a long time. The numbers suck, soft launch or no. W/W Trx for the past few weeks as follows with 224 reported this am. 178 , 177, 173, 210, 226, 224 Maybe Sanofi will start to push hard in the next 2-3 months but 224 NRx / Wk doesn't mean squat for a company the size of Sanofi unless it is one datapoint on a progression of consistent growth which so far has not been the case. And yes, I am long since 2009 Maybe other forces at play or time / effort being invested in label change, approval in another country and a sales / marketing reload in US after but for now, I have not seen anything concrete that is giving me confidence from MNKD management. I have not abandoned the ship but by fall, if we are singing the same tune then it is over. Brandencourt has a big ship to sail, phucking around with 5HP dingy is not going to influence the direction of an ocean going freighter. Impediments? Go tell a Sanofi Jr. Product manager to get bids from 25 spiro manufacturers for 500 units. Go on web, print out 500 copies of the 2015 FEV reimbursement schedule w/HCPCs codes and hand them out. Prior authorization: Software programs handle this now at pharmacy so process can be automated to some extent. Not perfect but not impediment it once was. If you're in the business, then you should know that early numbers are pretty meaningless. You'd also know that week over week numbers are equally meaningless. Follow the mo/mo trend. Benchmark against Exubera on a week by week basis with my perspective that Afrezza is in a whole different league (like way better in all the ways you already know about with a compact, no cleaning needed inhaler). April over March was +8%. We are, in my opinion, not where we should be nor are we moving forward at an adequate rate and yes, I believe in properly informing / educating docs because of Afrezza's unique properties. A strong enough groundwork has been laid and while still work to be done, it's time to push the throttles forward a bit.
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Post by compound26 on May 8, 2015 13:50:33 GMT -5
I've been in the industry for a long time. The numbers suck, soft launch or no. W/W Trx for the past few weeks as follows with 224 reported this am. 178 , 177, 173, 210, 226, 224 Maybe Sanofi will start to push hard in the next 2-3 months but 224 NRx / Wk doesn't mean squat for a company the size of Sanofi unless it is one datapoint on a progression of consistent growth which so far has not been the case. And yes, I am long since 2009 Maybe other forces at play or time / effort being invested in label change, approval in another country and a sales / marketing reload in US after but for now, I have not seen anything concrete that is giving me confidence from MNKD management. I have not abandoned the ship but by fall, if we are singing the same tune then it is over. Brandencourt has a big ship to sail, phucking around with 5HP dingy is not going to influence the direction of an ocean going freighter. Impediments? Go tell a Sanofi Jr. Product manager to get bids from 25 spiro manufacturers for 500 units. Go on web, print out 500 copies of the 2015 FEV reimbursement schedule w/HCPCs codes and hand them out. Prior authorization: Software programs handle this now at pharmacy so process can be automated to some extent. Not perfect but not impediment it once was. If you're in the business, then you should know that early numbers are pretty meaningless. You'd also know that week over week numbers are equally meaningless. Follow the mo/mo trend. We need to give context to the numbers. How much efforts Sanofi have spent on the marketing and how many Endos they have marketed to. As the WDBJ7 news piece indicated, "at the busy Endocrinology Associates office in Roanoke, the inhaler became available to patients less than a month ago". So it appears Afrezza was only available to this Endo office for less than 4 weeks ago. Given this is a totally new drug, Endos will like test it on one or two patients first and observe their feedback first. Endos will also likely to first give out samples to patients before fill out any prescriptions. Therefore, it is impossible to see any significant script number right now.
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Post by factspls88 on May 8, 2015 13:52:37 GMT -5
the $7.1M deferred sales is interesting... they confirmed it was at MNKD cost. question is how much does it translate to SNY sales to the retail market? I would think at least 4X or more? does anyone know how much of the $450-500 average per 1 month supply is the cost to produce? I also like Hakan cancel his planned sales and said no dilution. I didn't like that the TS pipeline products will not be viable until 12-18 months later Can't wait to see how sales ramp up in Q3 when DTC ads start... Someone correct me if I'm wrong but it looks to me like the $7.1MM is finished goods inventory, likely based on SNY's forecasted need. If we assume that none of it is samples, and if we also assume that COG is 50% of WHOLESALE revenues (conservative I think), then that would translate to $14.2MM of expected wholesale revenue ($7.1MM divided by .50). If we assume that half of the inventory was samples, and the samples represent $0 of deferred revenue, then expected sales based on 50% COG would be $7.1MM. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. I would like to think that that inventory was built based on forecasts by the salesforce, having been in the field to gauge interest, but perhaps they were overly optimistic. Hopefully we can get an answer at the shareholder meeting. All in all I was not happy about the tone of the conference call.
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Post by seanismorris on May 8, 2015 14:08:28 GMT -5
Part of the problem I'm having is when the partnership announcement came out, I thought it wasn't a great deal (I expected 50/50). But, then I rationalized it by saying to myself "Afrezza is just a test case for Techosphere" and we need the cash flow to develop those other opportunities that are much bigger than Afrezza. Al himself said PAIN would be as big as Afrezza. On that CC and others they've stated there has been a lot of interest but they couldn't go into details because of NDAs (which seemed reasonable).
Now we find out that the promising work done with Torrey Pines has essentially been thrown out and they will be targeting off patent pain drugs with projected revenues of 500M-1B. And, we probably won't hear about the progress for another 1.5 years.
As you can see, my faith in this management is being severely tested. When everyone is discussing script numbers, its like going to a doctor and he's worried (stressing) about the hang nail and ignoring one of the guys arms is blown off.
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 14:10:10 GMT -5
Part of the problem I'm having is when the partnership announcement came out, I thought it wasn't a great deal (I expected 50/50). But, then I rationalized it by saying to myself "Afrezza is just a test case for Techosphere" and we need the cash flow to develop those other opportunities that are much bigger than Afrezza. Al himself said PAIN would be as big as Afrezza. On that CC and others they've stated there has been a lot of interest but they couldn't go into details because of NDAs (which seemed reasonable). Now we find out that the promising work done with Torrey Pines has essentially been thrown out and they will be targeting off patent pain drugs with projected revenues of 500M-1B. And, we probably won't hear about the progress for another 1.5 years. As you can see, my faith in this management is being severely tested. When everyone is discussing script numbers, its like going to a doctor and he's worried (stressing) about the hang nail and ignoring one of the guys arms is blown off. It is 50/50 when you factor in milestone payments.
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Post by dstevenson on May 8, 2015 14:18:19 GMT -5
Lol this leads me to believe the partnership is not disclosed due to the fact another seal is already in plave
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Post by shortslaver on May 8, 2015 15:07:11 GMT -5
They need to sell the company and that might be what's up if they won't need financing and the CEO has pulled his stock selling . They won't get much as they've done a lousy job with just about everything so far. But the technology is worth something and Afrezza is worth something in the right hands. But doubt they'd get a large bid from anyone - maybe 6-7/share.
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Post by jimo on May 8, 2015 15:08:44 GMT -5
I'm not sure we should be blaming Matt, he seems to be the most coherent of the bunch. I would characterize the companies finances as muddled. The problem is we really need a copy of the partnership agreement. There are so many things that Matt's is unable to explain because of some restrictions we are unaware of. Keeping it from investors should be illegal! There is no 'competitive edge' from keeping it secret. We need to know the finances of the deal...like I said earlier, keeping the terms of the milestone payments from us is ridiculous. I put a copy of the partnership agreement on the right hand side of the -***-, just above the -***-. You can find it there for a good read. They trained 1200 reps in January for a Feb launch. We're adding new 5 scripts a week per state on average. That to me is bad. I've corresponded with 4 Sanofi reps over the past two months and I've gotten the company line from all of them "slow start due to...but lots of excitement". A few weeks ago I pinged them for an update on priority vs Toujeo and one rep responded "Toujeo is now the future of Sanofi that's all I can say, good luck". I should have sold then. I fully believe they are refocusing the 1200 reps on Toujeo and this was done after the new CEO started. He knows the difficulties of this monumental change for docs & patients and must back-fill the Lantus revenue. Mannkind has no clear picture of the Sanofi strategy and absolutely no influence to change it.
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Post by ezmit on May 8, 2015 15:33:21 GMT -5
I really hope management knows investors are pissed and rightfully so. Maybe this will light a fire under their asses. If I were short that cc would have been everything I wanted to hear. Nothing material and zero energy.
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Post by biotec on May 8, 2015 16:01:42 GMT -5
If this gets even close to $3 Im pulling all the equity out of my house and buying all I can.There is no doudt in my mind will be at $6 before the year ends!I dont know of any stock that I can say that about.No foreseen dilution, talking with people no one heard of Afrezza yet. The DTC roll out will tell the world. JMO
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Post by mnholdem on May 8, 2015 16:20:41 GMT -5
The real culprit here is the FDA, who for years has put up road blocks. A mandatory lung test? I think I'd know if I have COPD or asthma.
With the ADCOM vote near unanimous, they had to come up with something to slow down a disruptive tech that will reshape the diabetes industry.
Neither MannKind nor Sanofi were prepared for what the FDA pulled and they dare not object.
IMO nothing has changed. That is not necessarily bad, as we know know the testing is a bigger impediment than we realize and we're told Sanofi is working to remove this unanticipated roadblock to sales.
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Post by mnkdorbust on May 8, 2015 16:35:52 GMT -5
While i agree fundamentally nothing has changed my faith in MNKD management is bottoming out. The way they handled the call this morning left a lot to be desired (not sure why i'm surprised or upset as they generally always do). I was excited to hear Al but he was just reading a script. I picked up another 500 today but starting to question if i've drank too much of the Koolaid. I believe in the science but we've all been beat down a lot over the years and especially today. It's Beer thirty. Cheers
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on May 8, 2015 16:46:11 GMT -5
The real culprit here is the FDA, who for years has put up road blocks. A mandatory lung test? I think I'd know if I have COPD or asthma. With the ADCOM vote near unanimous, they had to come up with something to slow down a disruptive tech that will reshape the diabetes industry. Neither MannKind nor Sanofi were prepared for what the FDA pulled and they dare not object. IMO nothing has changed. That is not necessarily bad, as we know know the testing is a bigger impediment than we realize and we're told Sanofi is working to remove this unanticipated roadblock to sales. I respectfully disagree. Spirometry was required of patients going on Exubera, if I remember correctly, and it was already a problem back then. This could/should have been anticipated by MNKD and SNY. I see that the company is very slowly moving in the right direction, but I can only conclude that either management is hiding something with their silence or, simply, trying to awkwardly let us know that this might not end up being the success story we were all counting on. I am a patient person and I will patiently wait for a clearer picture, but I was extremely disappointed on the tone and substance of the cc this morning.
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