jim
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Post by jim on May 8, 2015 18:55:15 GMT -5
If it wasn't for this forum I would have sold. Guess I've become part of the cult. I figure that whether this thing turns out good or bad, it will have provided me with a tough lesson either way.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 18:56:19 GMT -5
In some quick reads of others regarding the tone of MNKD today, I picked up on their voices, their apparent mood, and their tone. With alfred stating how awesome afrezza is (and, it is) but did we really need to hear him remind us yet again today what he's already said over and over during the last few years? As if we don't already know all that in triplicate?
I also thought the demeanor and tone of hakan was dejection. Pure outright dejection. His tone to me was depressed. I don't believe they actually thought they would be having this type of conversation at this stage. I took it as a "holy shrt, I can't beleive I have to say this" type of tone.
The other bombshell was technosphere. It absolutely blows my mind to put two comments from last fall (one being the embarrassment of riches comment, the other being that they'll announce a technosphere deal by feb) - those two comments together suggested they were much farther along the process of getting another pharma on board than it appears they actually are. It now seems that they have a narrative, a story, but so far nobody is biting on it. Today, when asked, he sheeply responded with "12 to 18 months"....and it was sheepish. They should all be fired for creating this story with no results. Embarrassing.
Other comments - I could personally care less that hakan stopped his stock selling program. While it'll make some happy, it won't have any effect whatsoever on the sales of afrezza.
At this point, is anyone confused at the reality that this is and always has been (since fda approval) about sales of afrezza? I've been berated and belittled for making such arrogant statements in the past.
1. exubera didn't sell due to the high costs and size of the bong, insurance coverage issues, and endo acceptance. Al is on record saying they understood all that yet what did we hear today? afrezza is still priced at a premium. That's probably SNY making that decision, but, it's the wrong decision. We heard that there's insurance hurdles, spiro hurdles, simple getting the medication hurdles.....for the love of pudding, nobody could see that coming and went forward without a plan? Can anyone say "we thought this would sell itself, again?!!"
2. everyone talks about needles but when the financial reality comes knocking, people make decisions with their wallets. Yes, some will do whatever it takes to get off needles, most will do the cheaper options when push comes to shove. People eat at mickey d's even though it's terrible food and they get fat off of it....why? because it's cheap.
3. afrezza will not sell itself. Wow....just get over it.
4. the ACA is a bigger issue than people are acknowledging. The cost of medical care is squarely on the consumers shoulders up until annual deductibles/thresholds are met. That means out of pocket for afrezza for many users.
5. patients may care about needles, but docs don't. That's a huge hurdle to get over. If docs aren't excited about the prospect of no needles, they aren't going to get their patients excited. Docs are used to needles and there's plenty of ancedotal evidence out there in literature indicating they don't see needles as a barrier. I personally disagree, but, who cares what we think. Will 30 million diabetics pony up the price? So far, apparently not.
6. the common topic of buyouts. Can forget any buyouts. Nobody is going to pony up 5, 10 or more billion dollars for a product that's having this much challenge out of the gate. MNKD/SNY will have to work out the kinks and produce great sales before anyone will get serious about wanting to buy mnkd/afrezza, if ever.
While I have my eye on the prize, I'm always evaluating my risks in getting there. What is MNKD doing? Not much apparently. They appear blindsided by the slow uptake, the slow adoption by endo's, the issue of spiro testing, ACA impacts, insurance impacts....none of that is new to those that aren't blinded by the kool aid. Sounded to me today mnkd management was drinking it in mass and apparently the spigot ran dry.
There's a common concept about startups. The folks that start up a company, come up with the idea, develop a new product....those folks are wonderful as idea folks but they are not the people to take it commercial. It's not like that always, but, common enough. At this point I would rather see these guys sell out and let the gorden gecko's of the world take it to the next level. That's what's needed. These guys are acting like freshman at the senior ball.
However, even with all that happened and didn't happen today, I can say that I will stick with my position till at least a few quarters. I may add to my position to bring down my cost average if this gets low enough. SNY is in charge of sales, not MNKD, so who cares what MNKD says about sales. What matters is what SNY DOES, not what MNKD SAYS. That's what I'll be looking for over the next few quarters. I take advair and it was an amazing medical shift when I did. I absolutely believe that afrezza will be similar to diabetics once they get used to it. I, unlike the fda and others like them, believe that afrezza is perfect in the sense that it does the job without doing it so well that people might die at night. It's flexible, no needles, and quick acting. Evidence from early adopters is exciting (although I take that with a grain of salt at this point while at the same time I'm hopeful and estatic for the successes we're hearing about, assuming they are true and accurate). We'll know where this stands by the end of the year. If we're still hearing/making excuses why sales haven't taken off by then, I'll take my losses and move on.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on May 8, 2015 19:03:22 GMT -5
Wow, this was 5 pages of tough reading...... I too am doubting myself and wondering if I had too much Kool aid..... We all hope for that moment as investors where the blood is in the street and yet we're not shaken, have a clear vision, and are able to make the move..... It's the only way to hit it big........ Pass the Kool Aid!!!!!! One other interesting comment from Matt,,,,, he said something along the lines of,,,, if we explained the $25mil milestone, then it would give everything else away,,,,,, there's no doubt they're hiding EVERYTHING!!! And they're not hiding it!!! As per transcript Matt said, " I actually want to answer that question. We – it's not so difficult because, we haven't disclose what that milestone is, which makes it little awkward to project when it would be because, it become sort of circular. So, I think we're not comfortable, because we're not sure we can answer that question, I think the answer is we probably can't."Which I interpret it as the key to know what that milestone was about, not of giving everything else away. Yes, they are obviously hiding lot of stuff from investors, the real question is why. Mannkind will blame Sanofi and Sanofi has no responsibility toward Mannkind's shareholders, so here we are, still in the dark. I am curious as to know if anybody has a viable theory, other than competitor issues and BO (please no more talk of BO) as to why all the mystery. I mean, some of the things I clearly understand, but if anything it would seem that from the last cc to this one things have only gotten worst in terms of the amount of secretism going on.
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Post by kball on May 8, 2015 19:07:45 GMT -5
I will say that nothing i heard on the CC can't be fixed with time, dedication and ingenuity of Sanofi. Just not convinced they/we have all three
Doubt we see the next T/S product if Afrezza doesn't succeed
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 19:13:46 GMT -5
Wow, this was 5 pages of tough reading...... I too am doubting myself and wondering if I had too much Kool aid..... We all hope for that moment as investors where the blood is in the street and yet we're not shaken, have a clear vision, and are able to make the move..... It's the only way to hit it big........ Pass the Kool Aid!!!!!! One other interesting comment from Matt,,,,, he said something along the lines of,,,, if we explained the $25mil milestone, then it would give everything else away,,,,,, there's no doubt they're hiding EVERYTHING!!! And they're not hiding it!!! As per transcript Matt said, " I actually want to answer that question. We – it's not so difficult because, we haven't disclose what that milestone is, which makes it little awkward to project when it would be because, it become sort of circular. So, I think we're not comfortable, because we're not sure we can answer that question, I think the answer is we probably can't."Which I interpret it as the key to know what that milestone was about, not of giving everything else away. Yes, they are obviously hiding lot of stuff from investors, the real question is why. Mannkind will blame Sanofi and Sanofi has no responsibility toward Mannkind's shareholders, so here we are, still in the dark. I am curious as to know if anybody has a viable theory, other than competitor issues and BO (please no more talk of BO) as to why all the mystery. I mean, some of the things I clearly understand, but if anything it would seem that from the last cc to this one things have only gotten worst in terms of the amount of secretism going on. Nothing significant is being hidden imho. That was hopeful thinking by those looking for the holy grail of amazing surprises that would propel the stock and burn the shorts. How many theories are there about the december CTO? Or the deletions in the 10Q regarding the deal between SNY and MNKD? It's just contractual. Nothing else. Legalities around the agreement between the two companies. MNKD is excited about the loan agreement because it provides them financial flexibility. Are any of us that excited about it? I know I'm not. MNKD is excited about the milestones from SNY but there's contractual issues that aren't public and so they are being careful of what they say. Too many are taking that careful tone and turning it into a bigger theme while adding their own desires and spin to it. MNKD has contractual requirements, SNY has contractual requirements. And much of it isn't public. What we view as super secret amazing events about to happen is more likely just boring contractual agreement concerns and not divulging various aspects of the contract during CCs like today.
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 19:17:11 GMT -5
I will say that nothing i heard on the CC can't be fixed with time, dedication and ingenuity of Sanofi. Just not convinced they/we have all three Doubt we see the next T/S product if Afrezza doesn't succeed This is the key... Does Sanofi want to move this forward? In my mind there is absolutely nothing for Sanofi to lose by getting Afrezza to succeed and everything to gain. At worst this will be a nice niche product and at best a big deal. I certainly agree there is no other Technosphere application that will be partnered till Afrezza proves it can be accepted as a therapeutic category. That was certainly not a surprise to me.
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Post by biotec on May 8, 2015 19:22:54 GMT -5
I will say that nothing i heard on the CC can't be fixed with time, dedication and ingenuity of Sanofi. Just not convinced they/we have all three Doubt we see the next T/S product if Afrezza doesn't succeed No shit Kball. Why would MNKD spend money they dont have on T/S trials ? We need Afrezza to get the money for that! Thats why 12-18 months is a minimum if Afrezza sells!
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Post by kball on May 8, 2015 19:26:03 GMT -5
I'm still very excited for diabetics to discover this product. The 2 things i'm looking forward to in the next 6-12 months are the DTC and GP's having enough confidence to start prescribing rather than relying on only endos.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 19:31:29 GMT -5
I'm still very excited for diabetics to discover this product. The 2 things i'm looking forward to in the next 6-12 months are the DTC and GP's having enough confidence to start prescribing rather than relying on only endos. That about says it all. DTC and doing an end run around the endo's. Someone said from MNKD's side on the CC today that this is going to happen from the consumer side not the doc side. I believe it was phrased in the pull verbage.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 19:38:30 GMT -5
I will say that nothing i heard on the CC can't be fixed with time, dedication and ingenuity of Sanofi. Just not convinced they/we have all three Doubt we see the next T/S product if Afrezza doesn't succeed No shit Kball. Why would MNKD spend money they dont have on T/S trials ? We need Afrezza to get the money for that! Thats why 12-18 months is a minimum if Afrezza sells! warning - a negative comment coming. Don't read if you're on the edge! That comment about 12 to 18 months - I jumped out of my chair and threw some paper across my desk. Why? Because that's B...S to the max. 12 to 18 months? It'll take that long just to negotiate a deal following some success with afrezza and once all the science has been reviewed. It'll take that long just to get enough attorney's in the same room. It'll take that long just to order the food for the meetings. I mean, seriously??!! 12- 18 months? Based on what experience? I hope not the experience MNKD has provided us so far in this journey?!! How many times has MNKD management came out in the past with that kind of projection only to be delayed and delayed over and over, years and years?!! Ugh.....I went nuts over that outright lie. And the way they answered it....shaky voice and all. Freshman. Very freshman.
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Post by mannmade on May 8, 2015 19:40:44 GMT -5
The irony in all of this is that as I recall the target audience is supposed to be T2's (the so called low hanging fruit, with no disrespect intended to any T2) and yet we are focused onthe T1 population and their endo's who don't generally see T2's. Where are the PCP's in all this targeting of doctors, 1200 reps right?
One of my close friends is a PCP w a diabetes specialty to his practice I have mentioned him before) and he has 15 patients on Afrezza, however he did not know too much about Afrezza until we started talking about it. This is not to say he would not have got their eventually... Hopefully (and I do realize "hope is not a strategy") the DTC campaign will be directed at T2's and their PCP's who should mostly have spirometers.
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Post by spiro on May 8, 2015 19:53:14 GMT -5
nemzter,
This is what cheers Spiro up.
42+ carb dinner today
Pre-dinner BG 94 1 hour BG 87 Until recently this number was always the highest ??
2 hour BG 115
3 hour BG 104 Pinwheels (mallomar substitute) can linger around a little
Spiro here, just waiting for the world to find out how great Afrezza works
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 19:53:58 GMT -5
I obviously agree T2s are a much bigger patient population but the anchor is type 1s who have no other options but to take mealtime insulin in one form or another.
That is maybe what so shocked me by the 'casual comments' made in an email by management to someone on this board when discussing the 2 unit dose. It would be ironic if type 1s eventually went to see PCPs to get Afrezza! It could and might happen...
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Post by biotec on May 8, 2015 19:56:35 GMT -5
If it wasn't for this forum I would have sold. Guess I've become part of the cult. I figure that whether this thing turns out good or bad, it will have provided me with a tough lesson either way. Hello Jim, Ive been investing in biotechs for years, Its not for the faint of hearts. Dont trade from a forum, analysis from a pro, the street,Do you own DD and yes this forum has some great DD info! But only play with what you can loss. Early small cap biotechs are very speculative in nature!Ive been at it for 20 yrs and lost my shirt on CLSN 2 yrs ago!! But its also a very exciting and rewarding market when all goes well.I got on EXAC at $6 JMO. Good luck to you!!
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Post by kdaddyfresh2000 on May 8, 2015 20:01:38 GMT -5
You know it is bad when there are allegations of a conspiracy to look bad when they were, unfortunately, just simply that bad. I am worried that we now have to see in real life Warren Buffett's axiom, "Invest in a company idiots could run because sooner or later, they will." I believe this is where we are. My onky consolation is that Afrezza is maybe that good of a product that an idiot could sell it. We will see.
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