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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 8, 2015 16:51:27 GMT -5
The real culprit here is the FDA, who for years has put up road blocks. A mandatory lung test? I think I'd know if I have COPD or asthma. With the ADCOM vote near unanimous, they had to come up with something to slow down a disruptive tech that will reshape the diabetes industry. Neither MannKind nor Sanofi were prepared for what the FDA pulled and they dare not object. IMO nothing has changed. That is not necessarily bad, as we know know the testing is a bigger impediment than we realize and we're told Sanofi is working to remove this unanticipated roadblock to sales. MN, Sanofi went in with their eyes wide open and knew exactly what they were getting. They could have backed out of the final deal if they thought it was an achilles heel. Instead, they know what they currently have, we knew what they were getting and nothing has changed except the SI...and judging from the day we had today, I doubt it has changed significantly for the hole they are still in (other than Matt pointing out specifically about the no dilution). Actually, I think someone maybe not happy about that statement said something like it bordered on criminal? Should Matt be speaking the truth and I have no reason to think otherwise at this point (in fact quite the opposite as AF thinks otherwise and he's been saying for what 4 yrs or so that he doesn't think they will be an ongoing concern in the next "whatever" mos.) so in contrarian fashion with AF et al. probably the time to be backing up the truck again so to speak. The last comment I made to DBC in the TA thread said specifically if and once the 4.56 area went by the wayside the next watermark would be 3.80 and most likely on a decent amount of volume...look at the closing print today, trust me it had nothing to do with spirometers ...days like today are to be expected whence stepping on giants toes, don't believe for one second they (BP ie., Novo,etc.) don't catch wind of the social media and live interviews such as Sams yesterday. I didn't hear Sam or any of the others in the chat room complaining about a spirometry test. Btw, I think you can stomp a little harder on those voodoo dolls
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 16:55:58 GMT -5
While i am not surprised i can say i am highly disappointed. So many reasons to have expected a better outcome today, my views on the risks are holding weight. I didnt expect mnkd to be so lame at this stage.
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 17:02:13 GMT -5
As was stated this will be patient driven. At least for the beginning of the uptake. Do type 1 diabetics want other/ better/ more options than tradition injections? I am rather certain that the answer to this is yes.
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Post by babaoriley on May 8, 2015 17:18:01 GMT -5
If this gets even close to $3 Im pulling all the equity out of my house and buying all I can.There is no doudt in my mind will be at $6 before the year ends!I dont know of any stock that I can say that about.No foreseen dilution, talking with people no one heard of Afrezza yet. The DTC roll out will tell the world. JMO Sorry, biotech, I recommended your post and realized that was stupid. I don't want to endorse anyone going into debt to buy any stock!!! But you are on the money about hardly anyone knowing about it!
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Post by biotec on May 8, 2015 17:38:39 GMT -5
If this gets even close to $3 Im pulling all the equity out of my house and buying all I can.There is no doudt in my mind will be at $6 before the year ends!I dont know of any stock that I can say that about.No foreseen dilution, talking with people no one heard of Afrezza yet. The DTC roll out will tell the world. JMO Sorry, biotech, I recommended your post and realized that was stupid. I don't want to endorse anyone going into debt to buy any stock!!! But you are on the money about hardly anyone knowing about it! I would never recommend buying on margin , But I already have a home equity line of credit, 80% value so you can call it going into debt per say.But after 2 yrs maybe I can burn the morgage papers? Will find out!
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Post by goyocafe on May 8, 2015 17:38:41 GMT -5
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Post by goyocafe on May 8, 2015 17:40:20 GMT -5
I wouldn't say MannKinds management 'tanked it' on purpose, but from the tone they knew it would be poorly received. With the Sanofi partnership, I think management just figured out that Sanofi put them in a chastity belt and told them to sit in the corner.I think they misunderstood and assumed a bent over position.
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Post by spiro on May 8, 2015 17:45:21 GMT -5
If it goes to $3. Spiro would much rather baba mortgage his house, then loan Spiro some unsecured money at 12%. Spiro walked around with his empty pockets out of his pants all day today. This was Spiro's reply to the Seeking Alpha transcript article earlier today. Unfortunately, Spiro was telling the truth in his reply.
Spiro thinks the entire conference call was [indiscernible]. He also thinks that management is [indiscernible]. The only thing that Spiro is absolutely positive of at the moment, is that Afrezza is a fantastic product and the only way it can fail is if MNKD [indiscernible] it up.
Spiro here, [indiscernible] at this time
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Post by goyocafe on May 8, 2015 17:46:16 GMT -5
I'm not sure we should be blaming Matt, he seems to be the most coherent of the bunch. I would characterize the companies finances as muddled. The problem is we really need a copy of the partnership agreement. There are so many things that Matt's is unable to explain because of some restrictions we are unaware of. Keeping it from investors should be illegal! There is no 'competitive edge' from keeping it secret. We need to know the finances of the deal...like I said earlier, keeping the terms of the milestone payments from us is ridiculous. I put a copy of the partnership agreement on the right hand side of the -***-, just above the -***-. You can find it there for a good read. Still chuckling. Thanks for the comic relief.
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Post by goyocafe on May 8, 2015 17:51:06 GMT -5
If this gets even close to $3 Im pulling all the equity out of my house and buying all I can.There is no doudt in my mind will be at $6 before the year ends!I dont know of any stock that I can say that about.No foreseen dilution, talking with people no one heard of Afrezza yet. The DTC roll out will tell the world. JMO I would not trust their statements about dilution. We've been around that block before and it was not pretty.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on May 8, 2015 18:01:23 GMT -5
If this gets even close to $3 Im pulling all the equity out of my house and buying all I can.There is no doudt in my mind will be at $6 before the year ends!I dont know of any stock that I can say that about.No foreseen dilution, talking with people no one heard of Afrezza yet. The DTC roll out will tell the world. JMO I would not trust their statements about dilution. We've been around that block before and it was not pretty. Yeah well... the past might be one thing, but regarding this, Matt has been completely clear, not only today, in the fact that dilution is not coming. He has not even brought it up as a possibility depending on where sp is. There is enough fumbling regarding, pretty much, any other aspects of the company, but on this he has been as cristal clear as one can be. Unless he is an excellent liar, I have to conclude that the company is simply not considering that option at all.
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Post by afrizzle on May 8, 2015 18:05:43 GMT -5
The value proposition has not changed so my investment strategy hasn't changed either. I'm in for a 10 banger or zero or when Al sells maybe.
I've survived the roller coaster of the NDA, adcom, approval, partnership, soft launch. etc. We haven't even seen the effect of DTC which is only 1/2 quarter away. If squeamish, my advice is to stop checking the stock price for a bit. Don't let being mad at management cloud your financial assessment of the most probable long term outcome.
I've been "involved" with MannKind in one way or the other since 2005 and I want to see this effort through to fruition.
Management may be frustrating at times but in the big picture, they've shared info like they've been in the witness protection program for years. How can we be surprised they're still only telling us the minimum. I can somewhat agree the style could be polished up a but I don't think management has much affect on outcome provided they continue to produce a good product and meet Sanofi's needs.
Good luck to all longs, and I hope the shorts eat some bad Mallomars. I tried to buy another 10k today but missed the price. I'm still moving things around so Im in a position to strike during the next bear raid,
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 18:33:20 GMT -5
It has been a strange ride. I agree it's a great product and that nothing has changed today except for a CC that was, to me anyway, as expected.
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Post by cjc04 on May 8, 2015 18:33:37 GMT -5
Wow, this was 5 pages of tough reading...... I too am doubting myself and wondering if I had too much Kool aid.....
We all hope for that moment as investors where the blood is in the street and yet we're not shaken, have a clear vision, and are able to make the move..... It's the only way to hit it big........ Pass the Kool Aid!!!!!!
One other interesting comment from Matt,,,,, he said something along the lines of,,,, if we explained the $25mil milestone, then it would give everything else away,,,,,, there's no doubt they're hiding EVERYTHING!!! And they're not hiding it!!!
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Post by nemzter on May 8, 2015 18:49:46 GMT -5
If it goes to $3. Spiro would much rather baba mortgage his house, then loan Spiro some unsecured money at 12%. Spiro walked around with his empty pockets out of his pants all day today. This was Spiro's reply to the Seeking Alpha transcript article earlier today. Unfortunately, Spiro was telling the truth in his reply. Spiro thinks the entire conference call was [indiscernible]. He also thinks that management is [indiscernible]. The only thing that Spiro is absolutely positive of at the moment, is that Afrezza is a fantastic product and the only way it can fail is if MNKD [indiscernible] it up. Spiro here, [indiscernible] at this time After a full day of disappointment, this cheer'd me up, thanks Spiro!
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