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Post by babaoriley on Jun 8, 2015 1:16:49 GMT -5
Pretty exciting stuff last week, and weekend. Stock doing great Tuesday through Friday, shorts potentially showing weakness, Matt's presentation on Wednesday, with some good news regarding progress on TS, with pulmonary and pain being first and second out of the gate, in whichever order, and, of course, what seemed like a great splash at the ADA. People being very upbeat on this board.
Wait, what was that last? Uh, oh. Tomorrow and possibly Tuesday are going to be interesting. Can we break what I see as a pretty long standing "habit?" Good stuff happens, excitement here, and then the fall. If the price action from the AdCom to the present is a guide, I would look for a green morning, and then... If we can sustain green tomorrow, then possibly Tuesday would be the key day, just speculating here.
But, putting Tuesday aside, the pattern would be strong first half hour to hour, then a strong pull back. I would love to see our stock break out of that pattern and just be green all day, with little to no pullback from early highs.
The above are just some thoughts, has the board reached the giddiness level which nearly always signals an intermediate top, not sure, but it's getting there. Again, I think it's important to break out of the pattern, and let justifiable giddiness usher in further justifiable share price increases and even more justifiable giddiness. The short interest has been strong enough to rob us of that in the past, let's see if they continue to hold such sway.
Good luck everyone!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 5:40:02 GMT -5
NRx and TRx growth should start to accelerate. Formal announcement that lines 2/3 are producing salable product along with 12u? Would hope by now that things like this would get announced. More good news should help share price and put a bit more pressure on shorts. Shake off the shackles of the shorts, or a portion thereof, and MNKD should start to run at least a little faster.
I wonder how many more patients have to be singing the praises of Afrezza to make up that critical mass that accelerates awareness, trial and adherence.
Side note, at shareholders meeting, the guy in charge of manufacturing said FDA did not have to come back out to plant to certify 2/3 but MNKD just had to have paperwork available to demonstrate quality of product coming off new lines - at least this is what I heard when he spoke to our group during the plant tour.
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Post by ezrasfund on Jun 8, 2015 8:10:17 GMT -5
Yes, Baba, it has been buy the rumor and sell the news for a long time.
The view from this morning's vantage point? I think that the rumor (and the truth) is that February 3rd was the "soft opening" and ADA marks the beginning of the real push to doctors, with the DTC advertising starting September. So we are headed up unless and until the scrip numbers do not get better.
I wonder if GS didn't know this. After all they more or less achieved their $3 price target, albeit a bit early. As Bette Davis and others have said, fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night.
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Post by harryx1 on Jun 8, 2015 8:35:49 GMT -5
Think about this, how many Docs, nurses, researchers are on this board and like to invest? We saw a huge increase in volume after JDRF gala, so how many of those that attended ADA will look at this and buy as an investment?
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Post by vaijon on Jun 8, 2015 8:46:46 GMT -5
Pretty exciting stuff last week, and weekend. Stock doing great Tuesday through Friday, shorts potentially showing weakness, Matt's presentation on Wednesday, with some good news regarding progress on TS, with pulmonary and pain being first and second out of the gate, in whichever order, and, of course, what seemed like a great splash at the ADA. People being very upbeat on this board. Wait, what was that last? Uh, oh. Tomorrow and possibly Tuesday are going to be interesting. Can we break what I see as a pretty long standing "habit?" Good stuff happens, excitement here, and then the fall. If the price action from the AdCom to the present is a guide, I would look for a green morning, and then... If we can sustain green tomorrow, then possibly Tuesday would be the key day, just speculating here. But, putting Tuesday aside, the pattern would be strong first half hour to hour, then a strong pull back. I would love to see our stock break out of that pattern and just be green all day, with little to no pullback from early highs. The above are just some thoughts, has the board reached the giddiness level which nearly always signals an intermediate top, not sure, but it's getting there. Again, I think it's important to break out of the pattern, and let justifiable giddiness usher in further justifiable share price increases and even more justifiable giddiness. The short interest has been strong enough to rob us of that in the past, let's see if they continue to hold such sway. Good luck everyone! And here we go this morning. Up more than 8% and 2.8 million shares already traded by 6:45 AM PST. That large a volume is institutional in nature (and not those little nasty day trader shorts).
Today is going to be an interesting day.
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Post by dstevenson on Jun 8, 2015 8:48:07 GMT -5
It got dropped real quick, but I don't think it's over. I hope we can cross $7 today
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Post by ezrasfund on Jun 8, 2015 8:54:34 GMT -5
$6.80 is the conversion price for the B of A notes coming due on August 15th. That may become an important threshold.
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Post by kball on Jun 8, 2015 9:06:34 GMT -5
Total round trip from GS call 3/3 at 6.64. 3 months of pain. I kept buying. And not sleeping tbh
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Post by kc on Jun 8, 2015 9:30:19 GMT -5
This tells they tale of where the share price will be heading. Nothing like seeing foot traffic at a convention with 15,000 attendees. Time is on our side. You know the more we show up in trends on Social media the more that we will gain with the consumer who needs Afrezza. it's only a matter of time. I would not worry about the short time PPS as it will be a bumpy ride until we get some positive script numbers. You can bet that a show like the 2015 ADA will help increase scripts but it will take about 6 or more months. Doctors are not early adaptors. The patients will drive the demand. But at least the Doctors know its out there and available to prescribe it.
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Post by boomboom on Jun 8, 2015 10:12:48 GMT -5
Question for those that are investing in this from both a short-term and long-term perspective (i.e. holding a core position for investing and a few shares for trading)...When do you feel a pull-back will occur?
It seems to me after the dust has settled from ADA conference, our next big positives will be lines 2/3 opening up and DTC starting (so sometime in July). My game plan was to sell my trading shares sometime this week after the conference is done and the hype has faded, wait for negative articles to harp on script numbers again (as that will have to be their strategy since it is the short positions only hope for devaluing the current market cap) and re-enter at any significant pull-backs.
Any thoughts on how you guys think the stock price will react from end of conference till the next big milestone events? Historically, what I said before has been accurate regarding price action for MNKD. I am curious to know if anyone feels that trend has changed.
Thanks
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Post by _neil on Jun 8, 2015 10:13:17 GMT -5
Is there a word to describe the feeling of unease over current good news since in the recent past bad news always followed good news? I am geeting close to my average purchase price and this feeling is creeping up on me. I will take baba's advice and not sell as soon as I cross over into green but sell puts instead (fingers crossed I will be able to break through this week)
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 8, 2015 10:18:01 GMT -5
The above are just some thoughts, has the board reached the giddiness level which nearly always signals an intermediate top, not sure, but it's getting there. Again, I think it's important to break out of the pattern, and let justifiable giddiness usher in further justifiable share price increases and even more justifiable giddiness. The short interest has been strong enough to rob us of that in the past, let's see if they continue to hold such sway. I was giddy this morning even before coffee... so yes, it is certainly reaching dangerous levels. Part of it was Schwab bumping lending rate.
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Post by brentie on Jun 8, 2015 10:23:21 GMT -5
Question for those that are investing in this from both a short-term and long-term perspective (i.e. holding a core position for investing and a few shares for trading)...When do you feel a pull-back will occur? It seems to me after the dust has settled from ADA conference, our next big positives will be lines 2/3 opening up and DTC starting (so sometime in July). My game plan was to sell my trading shares sometime this week after the conference is done and the hype has faded, wait for negative articles to harp on script numbers again (as that will have to be their strategy since it is the short positions only hope for devaluing the current market cap) and re-enter at any significant pull-backs. Any thoughts on how you guys think the stock price will react from end of conference till the next big milestone events? Historically, what I said before has been accurate regarding price action for MNKD. I am curious to know if anyone feels that trend has changed. Thanks Matt: So a few little minor updates here and there, mostly because people ask about this all the time. We are increasing the manufacturing capacity. We started out with just one line in operation and we now have three lines in operation and the 12-unit cartridge which was recently approved will be the first thing that’s coming off the two new lines. So those would be, starting to be produced shortly if they aren’t today, I’m not sure if they are today but they aren’t, they will be any moment, and Sanofi says they will launch them into the market next quarter. seekingalpha.com/article/3234406-mannkinds-mnkd-management-presents-at-jefferies-global-healthcare-conference-transcript?find=lines&all=false
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 8, 2015 10:24:03 GMT -5
Any thoughts on how you guys think the stock price will react from end of conference till the next big milestone events? Historically, what I said before has been accurate regarding price action for MNKD. I am curious to know if anyone feels that trend has changed. History would seem to indicate potential for a pullback as you state. But things only repeat until they do something different. If there are institutional longs that are accumulating and shorts getting margin calls, that may swamped out any attempts to talk it down by saying the same thing about script numbers that have already been said.
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Post by alethea on Jun 8, 2015 10:28:39 GMT -5
regarding today's price action.........
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