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Post by kc on Jun 8, 2015 10:33:13 GMT -5
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Post by mnholdem on Jun 8, 2015 10:36:51 GMT -5
More to the original question than anything else, I suspect that MNKD is in a "Buy the Rumor" phase right now, in anticipation of the Direct-to-Consumer marketing campaign RUMORED to begin in July (the 1st, according to some optimists).
I suspect the share price will slowly migrate into the low $7's ($7.00-$7.40) and hang around that level until DTC campaign begins if there is no news of any significance. What news could propel it higher?
- Price Target upgrade(s) by investment analysts following the MannKind presentation at this week's GS Investor Conference
- A large jump in weekly IMS / Symphony sales data
- Pipeline API announcement
- Sanofi announcement of 5% MNKD equity interest
Of these bullet points, the upgrades are most likely IMHO.
That's my 2 cents... which I hope will be worth 4 cents by August 2015.
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Post by dudley on Jun 8, 2015 11:02:10 GMT -5
I still firmly believe the CURRENT script count (Trx 329 as of 5/29) dramatically understates the true demand in the pipeline. We know almost indisputably that right now it is AT LEAST a 2-month process to get a prescription for an average patient. That is from when the lightbulb goes off and the interest is sparked, set up the initial appointment, arrange the FEV1 test, get those results, get the insurance stuff ironed out and finally get the prescription at the pharmacy where presumably the data is captured in Symphony. Many of the early adopters such as Sam already had doctors who were familiar with Afrezza and their patients in the trials so those went through pretty quickly - almost ALL others would be subject to the delay as described. Hakan also stated clearly they were about 8 weeks behind where they thought they would be.
So the simplest of math tells you to take the current date of 5/29 and back out 2 months to see where the script count really is for what point in time. In other words the 5/29 data only reflects ACTUAL demand up to 3/29, and even that is probably optimistic. I'm not saying this as a bad thing, what I am saying is the REAL demand is still in the pipeline waiting to show up in the Symphony data. Minimal chance that ANY of the demand from April and May have hit the Symphony data yet. Those are the 2 months where demand should have been kicking in pretty strongly - the great results from Sam et al were becoming known, Amy T's article and others as well as just the normal increases one would expect from word getting around.
So I submit that we will be seeing some truly significant growth numbers coming in over the summer months as those "pent-up" script numbers kick in. The current script numbers almost certainly are seriously understating the actual picture.
Now with 15,000 influential persons at the ADA exposed to Afrezza and DTC beginning to enter the scenario, demand will enter an entirely new dimension. I think the script counts by the end of July-August will be showing some spectacular growth. Of course by then the convertible bond issue will also be resolved, as well as any time around then a new TS deal announced. Lovely catalysts coming over the next few months.
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Post by goodby1 on Jun 8, 2015 12:08:47 GMT -5
OK... it is midday Monday and WOW!
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Post by nemzter on Jun 8, 2015 12:10:03 GMT -5
Wall up at $7.00 - think we break past it?
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Post by ezrasfund on Jun 8, 2015 12:12:27 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 8, 2015 12:24:36 GMT -5
You can "say" that again, alethea! Gotta love it, so far. poorneil, $7 seems like a good place for you to exit, you're clearly not meant to stay long here. Nice double entendre, if I do say so myself.  |
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Post by patryn on Jun 8, 2015 12:28:31 GMT -5
You can "say" that again, alethea! Gotta love it, so far. poorneil, $7 seems like a good place for you to exit, you're clearly not meant to stay long here. Nice double entendre, if I do say so myself. Everyone, even the most optimistic longs has a price at which they believe the share value is out of line with current financial performance and discounted present value of future unknowns. It's not crazy for someone unable to sleep at night to exit with a small profit. Personally though, I am waiting until at least we see some resolution to this ridiculous short interest and how the shorts unwind their positions from here. |
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Post by ezrasfund on Jun 8, 2015 12:35:22 GMT -5
it seem that this is buying not short covering, as Interactive Brokers does not even list MNKD as a shortable stock today. Someday things might get irrational.
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Post by patryn on Jun 8, 2015 12:38:52 GMT -5
it seem that this is buying not short covering, as Interactive Brokers does not even list MNKD as a shortable stock today. Someday things might get irrational. The only reason I think some short covering is happening is that I had multiple different tranches of MNKD stock and while the main block has remained loaned out, new shares I made available for borrowing are sitting there on Fidelity looking for a short to nibble  |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 8, 2015 12:40:18 GMT -5
it seem that this is buying not short covering, as Interactive Brokers does not even list MNKD as a shortable stock today. Someday things might get irrational. It may not be shortable, exra, but it certainly is short-coverable. Perhaps the some houses feel that shorting a currently hot stock like MNKD is a bit riskier than they care to be involved with, and the fact that they said it's not shortable doesn't mean there are no shares available. |
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Post by ezrasfund on Jun 8, 2015 13:41:03 GMT -5
it seem that this is buying not short covering, as Interactive Brokers does not even list MNKD as a shortable stock today. Someday things might get irrational. It may not be shortable, exra, but it certainly is short-coverable. Perhaps the some houses feel that shorting a currently hot stock like MNKD is a bit riskier than they care to be involved with, and the fact that they said it's not shortable doesn't mean there are no shares available. It was shortable earlier this morning at IB. I have to believe that they are agnostic about the risks their clients take as long as they have the collateral to cover the losses. And if you could sell at $5 or $6 it would seem safer to sell short at $7. We shall see. |
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Post by seanismorris on Jun 8, 2015 14:21:50 GMT -5
I'm more in the 'Buying' than 'Short Covering' camp. I think the docs are likely what they are hearing, which will result in increased scripts a month or two from now. The increased Institutional ownership also looks good. www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/institutional-holdingsThe problem with safety of the competing products to Afrezza (as reported by the FDA) seems to be the catalyst that started this move up. MNKD is no longer the low hanging fruit for the shorts...at least until the technicals say it's time to reload. |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 8, 2015 15:17:14 GMT -5
Sean, interesting information, of course, the best that info can tell us is a snapshot as of 3/31/2105. Much may have happened since. I find it interesting that apparently Jefferies (our buddies, I thought), sold out of their position, their entire position, I believe. And, of course, Goldman (never our buddies, irrespective of what they do or say) increased their position significantly percentage wise, although they are not a huge holder.
Thanks for posting, I think that's one of Spiro's favorite sites for due diligence.
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Post by 4Balance on Jun 8, 2015 15:23:03 GMT -5
I'm more in the 'Buying' than 'Short Covering' camp. I think the docs are likely what they are hearing, which will result in increased scripts a month or two from now. The increased Institutional ownership also looks good. www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/institutional-holdingsIf I'm reading this correctly, the data are VERY old...3/31/2015. Hopefully we'll seen an update in a month...anyone know how long it takes after end of quarter to post results...? --4Balance |
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