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Post by bioexec25 on Jul 22, 2015 17:01:05 GMT -5
That's about as plausible as anything at this point. My goodness I seen many launches and market positioning but this one is one of a (mann) kind".
Whoever is still standing at this point, might as well wait and see the "Call".
I smile thinking about the recent retail buy sides, like walking into a saloon and everybody turns to stare. The newbie stops and turns and says "What? What is everyone looking at? All is still good right? I was told I got in at a great time." Everyone nods and goes about their business. :-))
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 22, 2015 17:03:34 GMT -5
WHY AUGUST?
Because there are some critical deadlines to be met with the outstand debt. Sanofi knows that Afrezza will be a winner and they don't want MannKind to fail financially. The test drive is over and Sanofi has laid the ground work for DTC and Global expansion / approval. So they will BUY IN.
KC, In case you forgot, this is business not charity. I think Sanofi could care less about whether Mannkind fails financially. I'm sure they are well protected in their agreement in that event. All this speculation about Sanofi investing in or buying Mannkind is nothing more than that, speculation and some wishful hope. If they choose to invest (which I would be very surprised at this time), it would be on the basis that Mannkind and its technology will be a huge hit. How could they believe that based on the results so far? How could anyone believe that except a bunch risk taking longs (me included  ?)? As for these critical deadlines regarding the debt, I am not concerned about them in the least. Big Al has the debt covered (aka Al Mann put). For he and his charities have the most to lose and as such he will be the one to prevent any failing of Mannkind financially. Trend Not that I have any reason to believe they plan to invest in MNKD, but I certainly think they have visibility and insight into future success of Afrezza that we investors do not. |
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Post by BlueCat on Jul 22, 2015 17:26:32 GMT -5
KC, In case you forgot, this is business not charity. I think Sanofi could care less about whether Mannkind fails financially. I'm sure they are well protected in their agreement in that event. All this speculation about Sanofi investing in or buying Mannkind is nothing more than that, speculation and some wishful hope. If they choose to invest (which I would be very surprised at this time), it would be on the basis that Mannkind and its technology will be a huge hit. How could they believe that based on the results so far? How could anyone believe that except a bunch risk taking longs (me included ?)? As for these critical deadlines regarding the debt, I am not concerned about them in the least. Big Al has the debt covered (aka Al Mann put). For he and his charities have the most to lose and as such he will be the one to prevent any failing of Mannkind financially. Trend Not that I have any reason to believe they plan to invest in MNKD, but I certainly think they have visibility and insight into future success of Afrezza that we investors do not. Trend - I would suggest that true - business is not a charity, and SNY will only look out for their bottom line. But that's just it. If they believe Afrezza is the goods and fills a critical part of their portfolio and strategy, they not only want it to succeed for that 65%, but also, for their overall competitive stance in the diabetic market that they are in a war with now, especially with Lantus status, etc. Thus, I don't think they will be 'penny wise-pound foolish'. They need Afrezza to succeed and won't nickle-dime MNKD when they need money to ramp manufacturing, etc because they will just hinder their own success. In addition, SNY would qualify as 'smart money' as they have the inside scoop on just how good this is. At some point, being stock owners/investors will also make them a pile o cash. Why miss out and give it to GS, etc.? I think the key here for SNY is simply one of timing. They all know it can still be bought on the cheap. |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 22, 2015 17:30:51 GMT -5
That's about as plausible as anything at this point. My goodness I seen many launches and market positioning but this one is one of a (mann) kind". Whoever is still standing at this point, might as well wait and see the "Call". I smile thinking about the recent retail buy sides, like walking into a saloon and everybody turns to stare. The newbie stops and turns and says "What? What is everyone looking at? All is still good right? I was told I got in at a great time." Everyone nods and goes about their business. :-)) From one Lab Rat to another, I hope nobody in the saloon says "Reach for your gun you good fur nuthin newbie!" |
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Post by trenddiver on Jul 22, 2015 18:08:35 GMT -5
Not that I have any reason to believe they plan to invest in MNKD, but I certainly think they have visibility and insight into future success of Afrezza that we investors do not. Trend - I would suggest that true - business is not a charity, and SNY will only look out for their bottom line. But that's just it. If they believe Afrezza is the goods and fills a critical part of their portfolio and strategy, they not only want it to succeed for that 65%, but also, for their overall competitive stance in the diabetic market that they are in a war with now, especially with Lantus status, etc. Thus, I don't think they will be 'penny wise-pound foolish'. They need Afrezza to succeed and won't nickle-dime MNKD when they need money to ramp manufacturing, etc because they will just hinder their own success. In addition, SNY would qualify as 'smart money' as they have the inside scoop on just how good this is. At some point, being stock owners/investors will also make them a pile o cash. Why miss out and give it to GS, etc.? I think the key here for SNY is simply one of timing. They all know it can still be bought on the cheap. Q, i dont one want to get into a long back and forth about Sanofi. I'll just say, yes Sanofi knows much more than we do and could be a potential buyer of shares or even the company at some point (but at this point, I don't think so). Also Sanofi doesn't need Afrezza to succeed, Mannkind needs Afrezza to succeed. Sanofi will do just fine even if Afrezza fails. They have a lot of other drugs that are ringing the register. trend |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Jul 22, 2015 18:50:26 GMT -5
i dont one want to get into a long back and forth about Sanofi. I'll just say, yes Sanofi knows much more than we do and could be a potential buyer of shares or even the company at some point (but at this point, I don't think so). Also Sanofi doesn't need Afrezza to succeed, Mannkind needs Afrezza to succeed. Sanofi will do just fine even if Afrezza fails. They have a lot of other drugs that are ringing the register. trend While technically it might be true that Sanofi does not need Afrezza because it has many other drugs, it is also more than clear that they do want Afrezza because it fits neatly in their overall strategy. Same way that Novo and Lilly have gone after Lantus, Sanofi is not only trying to protect that competitive advantage by bringing in Toujeo, but also going directly after the meal time insulin market. I happen to think they believe that Afrezza will do for them what Apidra has not. Therefore, I would argue that Sanofi sees Afrezza as a key component of their global strategy in the diabetes market. A very different thing is that their interest should be aligned with those of Mannkind shareholders, which obviously are not. Sanofi will move at a rhythm that makes sense to them and knowing that, as Q2U very well said, they simply know they have time. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2015 19:06:31 GMT -5
Afrezza offers better glucose control than any other insulin on the market by a long shot. It vastly reduces incidences of hypoglycemia and A1C and subsequently, the long term health complications that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to treat. The potential market for Afrezza makes it potentially the motherland of motherloads. Combine this with the fact that SNY will no doubt bundle Afrezza and Toujeo so it will be less expensive than Afrezza and a competing Basal insulin. Camelot is SNY saving their $7B Lantus franchise and then building their share of the Basal market so when the Toujeo replacement comes along in a few years, SNY can easily transition their patients over to new drug. Think competitive moat.
The cost of Afrezza is insignificant when compared to the cost of treating the long term health complications people with diabetes suffer when they cannot control their blood glucose levels. The other item of interest is how many patients using insulin pumps will switch to a single daily injection of Toujeo and Afrezza. The potential for better control, much simpler compliance than dealing with a pump and a base of customers who are very engaged in monitoring and managing their diabetes and a health insurance company that does not have the $6800 outlay for a new pump every few years.
We have not even begun to talk about the potential of reversing pre-diabetes with Afrezza.
PS - what about the value of a GLP1 delivered via Technosphere? Not my area of expertise but my guess is that if the product has legs, chances for SNY to market it successfully are much greater if MNKD is financially healthy.
So how many more Afrezzausers do we need singing the praises of Afrezza before enough doctors and insurance companies see that it should become the standard of care?
Different question: SNY gets first right of refusal to buy MNKD correct? Is there a point at which Afrezza gets enough traction that a SNY competitor takes a position in MNKD to force SNY's hand and make it more costly for SNY to do the acquisition? Common to have competitors bid up a price of target company even if they don't really want it to make it hurt a bit more for the competitor that really wants to do the deal, No?
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Post by robsacher on Jul 22, 2015 19:06:37 GMT -5
trenddiver,
I am in agreement with you in that I doubt that any positive rally associated with financial news related to the convertibles or the Q2 report will be long lasting. After all, if the company's price per share could not hold gains after FDA approval, after partnership with Sanofi, and after Afrezza's launch, I find it very difficult to see any reason why the scenario will now be any different.
That being said, there is always the possibility of some positive news about some big player buying in with a large stake, be it Sanofi or Santa Claus, but to me this possibility is about as realistic as hoping to win when you put your money down on 00 in roulette. Yet, there is always that possibility and there is always someone who wins the lottery, eventually.
Assuming that no big player does buy into MannKind this year, I very much believe that the p/s will continue to be pumped and dumped between $5 and $6 for the next few months and probably through the end of the year. Traders make a lot of money in this process and, with a $5 stock, it only takes $20 million dollars to move the p/s up or down several points in an hour.
MannKind is a company with a technology that will create a brand new paradigm not only with Afrezza but with additional inhaled drugs. But, this new paradigm will take a few years to manifest. It will not happen this August and until MNKD actually sees substantial money coming in from sales, the p/s will continue to meander between traders who push one way and then another.
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Post by obamayoumama on Jul 22, 2015 19:24:43 GMT -5
KC, In case you forgot, this is business not charity. I think Sanofi could care less about whether Mannkind fails financially. I'm sure they are well protected in their agreement in that event. All this speculation about Sanofi investing in or buying Mannkind is nothing more than that, speculation and some wishful hope. If they choose to invest (which I would be very surprised at this time), it would be on the basis that Mannkind and its technology will be a huge hit. How could they believe that based on the results so far? How could anyone believe that except a bunch risk taking longs (me included ?)? As for these critical deadlines regarding the debt, I am not concerned about them in the least. Big Al has the debt covered (aka Al Mann put). For he and his charities have the most to lose and as such he will be the one to prevent any failing of Mannkind financially. Trend Not that I have any reason to believe they plan to invest in MNKD, but I certainly think they have visibility and insight into future success of Afrezza that we investors do not. Because SNY would be considered an "insider" with there knowledge of Afrezza sales, I would not be surprised if they were waiting till MNKD reports before buying up the 5% of the shares they can. SNY has a history of buying shares in the companies they partner with. Maybe that is why Matt is waiting till SNY does their buy of 5% before completing a deal with the convertible holders. I believe that SNY buying up 5% of the outstanding shares or about 10% of the float should moved the stock higher. News of them buying 5% would be nice boost as well. |
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 22, 2015 19:35:21 GMT -5
I think it would be hilarious if it comes out at the earnings call that some large order of Afrezza was sold to Saudi Arabia or Israel, shocking the hell out of everyone (chuckle). Although some might argue that ex-U.S. sales of Afrezza would constitute a material event and would have been filed. It could also be that MannKind has secured a partner for one of its pipeline drugs. Could be anything, and (call this a mean streak) I would really luv to watch short interests really start squirming during the next couple of weeks trying to figure out why Matt is so confident that share price will be much better in August.  |
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Post by mannmade on Jul 22, 2015 19:50:26 GMT -5
If I recall Matt said pps would be higher than where it was at the time of the cc. Don't remember exact date of last call but on May 5 (around time of the last cc ) stk was at $4.20. Think we are higher so all relative...
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Post by yossarian on Jul 22, 2015 19:55:31 GMT -5
Does anyone know if the convertible debt is selling at a discount?
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 22, 2015 22:32:02 GMT -5
Q2U, "They need Afrezza to succeed and won't nickle-dime MNKD when they need money to ramp manufacturing, etc because they will just hinder their own success. LOL, I remember worrying about that very thing around late January, shows you that you shouldn't worry about things too early, as you often find out there was not a damn thing to worry about!  I will say European approval will be a biggie; I see this product going over better in Europe, don't ask me why, just a feeling the Euros will love the Dreamboat, it's cool, just ask Spiro! MN, nice tee shirt! |
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Post by blakjak on Jul 22, 2015 23:45:55 GMT -5
Good post.
Regarding Matt saying he expects PSS to increase in August, lets remember its much easier to lose trust, than to earn it. What Matt said should be a strong positive the PSS will move up.
Now, he cant predict Rx growth, it shouldnt be as obvious as extending the loan, its still a bit early for EU, Japan approval, or improved labeling. This makes me think it has to be something internal with SNY and/or MNKD.
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Post by BlueCat on Jul 23, 2015 1:17:14 GMT -5
Q2U, "They need Afrezza to succeed and won't nickle-dime MNKD when they need money to ramp manufacturing, etc because they will just hinder their own success. LOL, I remember worrying about that very thing around late January, shows you that you shouldn't worry about things too early, as you often find out there was not a damn thing to worry about! I will say European approval will be a biggie; I see this product going over better in Europe, don't ask me why, just a feeling the Euros will love the Dreamboat, it's cool, just ask Spiro! MN, nice tee shirt! Ay-yuh. Not worrying. I don't think there is a problem at this point with funding or managing the debt. At some point, do think that SNY will buy in simply because it will ultimately be in their best interest. I think you are onto something there with the Euros. |
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