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Post by kc on Aug 24, 2015 21:28:31 GMT -5
My view on today's share price. Just posted this to YMB to see what the goonies there were thinking. We all know that the current agreement gives Sanofi the right to buy 5% of MannKind. But I am sure there wouldcbe no issue and the board of Mannkind would approve a larger interest. So 10% is not out of the question and fits Sanofi's past with REGN and ALNY.
Extreme value alert at $3.56 per share Something will happens SHORTLY
We all might be very disappointed in the current PPS but it won't last much longer. At $3.56 a share Sanofi would be crazy not to go ahead and buy into Mannkind. 10% is about 41,000,000 shares . At $3.56 that is $145,000,000 They might as well pull the trigger. Or go ahead and buy the entire company for about 5 billion $10.00 per share.
Buy into the entire company saves them about $925,000,000 in future milestones. So eith buy in or buy out by Sanofi will happen SHORTLY.
THUMBS UP if you agree.
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Post by coco on Aug 24, 2015 22:19:02 GMT -5
It makes sense for Sanofi to buy in at this point. If buyout happens sure hope it's not 10.00 a share, I've been in too long for such a small return. May consider buying at this price. Coco
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Post by mannmade on Aug 24, 2015 22:22:42 GMT -5
Remember there is a 5 year "Stand Still" clause in the partnership agreement so any buyout would have to be approved by Al and I seriously doubt he would approve at this point.
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Post by kball on Aug 25, 2015 5:55:18 GMT -5
If i had just been made aware of Mannkind at these prices, along with Afrezza's current script numbers, and Al's age, I'd like to think I'd make it a meaningful position in my portfolio (i keep things concentrated at 11-15 positions).
But i honestly can't say if it would crack the top 5 under these circumstances. But i'm also almost positive i'd make room for it.
The one good thing about the entire market melting down over the past week is at least for once i'm not exclusively obsessing over my red headed step child (Mannkind). -see Sanofi's last CC with not a mention-
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Post by tchalaa on Aug 25, 2015 6:51:18 GMT -5
My view on today's share price. Just posted this to YMB to see what the goonies there were thinking. We all know that the current agreement gives Sanofi the right to buy 5% of MannKind. But I am sure there wouldcbe no issue and the board of Mannkind would approve a larger interest. So 10% is not out of the question and fits Sanofi's past with REGN and ALNY. Extreme value alert at $3.56 per share Something will happens SHORTLYWe all might be very disappointed in the current PPS but it won't last much longer. At $3.56 a share Sanofi would be crazy not to go ahead and buy into Mannkind. 10% is about 41,000,000 shares . At $3.56 that is $145,000,000 They might as well pull the trigger. Or go ahead and buy the entire company for about 5 billion $10.00 per share. Buy into the entire company saves them about $925,000,000 in future milestones. So eith buy in or buy out by Sanofi will happen SHORTLY. THUMBS UP if you agree. KC, I don't think mannkind is worth less than $35 a share, even Jefferies mentioned "Jefferies reiterated their Buy recommendation with price targets of $9 going on to $37 by 2017." Although I wish for a buyout, if any has to happen this week or coming weeks, it should be a least 10x bagger, simply because, when jefferies e.g speaks of the peak at $37, i.e there will certainly be as much sales revenues on the other side of the peak: $0....$peak....$flat....$0
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Post by ezrasfund on Aug 25, 2015 7:09:44 GMT -5
“In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could,” Mr. Rogoff said on Monday from Cambridge, Mass., repeating a favorite line from Rudi Dornbusch, the German economist. (Mr. Rogoff sat in on Mr. Dornbusch’s class at M.I.T. in 1977.)
I just hope this applies to MNKD as well.
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Post by spiro on Aug 25, 2015 7:32:38 GMT -5
Spiro always enjoys reading threads like this one, particularly because he didn't start the thread. However Spiro is now a reformed irrational pumper and has lowered his expectations so much that he would now be OK, not happy, just OK, with a buyout of $15 a share. In light of what Spiro personally knows about the effectiveness of Afrezza, he believes that anything less than $15 per should be considered criminal activity.
Spiro here, still one of the few Type 2 diabetics enjoying the life changing benefits of Afrezza
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 25, 2015 7:54:35 GMT -5
If SNY believes Afrezza will be a block buster now would be the right time to buyout MNKD. At under $4 a share SNY could /should initiate talks as I don't believe the price will go much lower. This is an FDA approved drug, with a global partner that specializes in diabetes, with a paradigm shifting process (inhalable) & by the way it's BETTER insulin....As for me "NO BUYOUT"! Let the launch continue ( dr education, better insurance coverage, global markets & DTC) & our patience will be rewarded in a much higher price.
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Post by bioexec25 on Aug 25, 2015 7:59:47 GMT -5
If SNY believes Afrezza will be a block buster now would be the right time to buyout MNKD. At under $4 a share SNY could /should initiate talks as I don't believe the price will go much lower. This is an FDA approved drug, with a global partner that specializes in diabetes, with a paradigm shifting process (inhalable) & by the way it's BETTER insulin....As for me "NO BUYOUT"! Let the launch continue ( dr education, better insurance coverage, global markets & DTC) & our patience will be rewarded in a much higher price. I'm with you on no BO to wait for higher price. But it is an "And" not an "Or". If they are convinced and want to save future cash and still wait and see, Sny can easily buy 10-20% now at this price. They have the precedence to do so as folks have stated.
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 25, 2015 8:11:03 GMT -5
Spiro always enjoys reading threads like this one, particularly because he didn't start the thread. However Spiro is now a reformed irrational pumper and has lowered his expectations so much that he would now be OK, not happy, just OK, with a buyout of $15 a share. In light of what Spiro personally knows about the effectiveness of Afrezza, he believes that anything less than $15 per should be considered criminal activity. Spiro here, still one of the few Type 2 diabetics enjoying the life changing benefits of Afrezza The interesting thing is that if SNY were to announce purchase of even a 5% stake, (an incredible bargain at these prices), it's possible they would create sufficient upward momentum to recoup half of their investment in the first two days, IMO. I'd be sad for a $15 dollar buyout, but at least it would stop the bleeding and the seemingly endless drumbeat of criticism and doomsday predictions by bought anal-ysts. The plight of this stock reads like a novel about the dark side of the market. Perhaps someday the true story will be revealed, but I doubt it will be announced by the SEC. Chris C
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Post by sf1981 on Aug 25, 2015 9:08:14 GMT -5
Let me pour some cold water on the idea of a SNY buyout (disclosure: I am LONG and really hope I am wrong on this call. Still it strikes me as just plain delusional). Here are some reasons:
- Sanofi could have easily purchased an equity stake in the partnership negotiations
- Sanofi could have easily purchased an equity stake in today's convertible refi
- Sanofi actually "owns" 65% of MNKD through the partnership (yes, I know, TI exists, too, but we are years away from any revenue).
- Building up a position slowly through open market purchases is not even possible. Due to the massive ensuing short squeeze if SNY stepped in, which admittedly would be a lot of fun to watch (too bad), the price for anything but the first 3% of shares or so would be hugely higher within probably the same trading day of the announcement - not good... but even more importantly:
- For Sanofi, a few % of the shares are irrelevant, just too small to matter. They have strategic say about Afrezza, MNKD's only real asset today, anyway! Daily share price movements, i.e. "recouping their investment in 2 days" is totally irrelevant. They might care about buying 100%, but then they have Al Mann to deal with, who, for bad or worse, probably does not like the idea to sell his massive stake at anything not a significant multiple of the USD 900m or so that he has invested. My guess (just pure gut feeling) would be Al is not selling below at least USD 25-30 per share. I do not think he puts any importance on the current share price that a bunch of mainly retail fools (under which I proudly include myself) have created with their panicky short term trading. Bottom line: Al is not selling at these levels. So a buyout is an illusion.
- Lastly: Sanofi undoubtedly sees the opportunity in Afrezza. And I agree: saving the milestones would be real money, just not for SNY: saving USD 700m, for example, amount to a staggering 0.55% of SNY market cap. Why spend a multiple of that for acquiring MNKD if there is a real chance, albeit I hope not, that Afrezza goes bust?
- How much does SNY know about the chance of Afrezza becoming a blockbuster compared to folks like us? Well, mainly one crucial factor: they know the real motivation of their sales force and they know the roll-out strategy, and can evaluate better than we can if pathetic scripts so far are merely an accident or part of the longer term game plan. I sincerely believe in the latter, in SNY putting the brakes on until they can make better marketing claims, all bottlenecks in the referral/insurance systems are eliminated etc until turning up the heat. But they can't know at this point if their game plan is going to work! Pfizer didn't know either! They will know only a few months before we do.
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 25, 2015 9:13:30 GMT -5
www.a1cchampions.com/ It seems pretty clear to me that Sanofi has picked up on the social media buzz and ready to expand. Remember, the 12u cartridges have just been rolled out, this is a complicated launch and any mistakes would have been more fuel for some borderline (or worse) misanthropic hedge types.
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Post by newmnkdinvestor on Aug 25, 2015 9:23:21 GMT -5
My view on today's share price. Just posted this to YMB to see what the goonies there were thinking. We all know that the current agreement gives Sanofi the right to buy 5% of MannKind. But I am sure there wouldcbe no issue and the board of Mannkind would approve a larger interest. So 10% is not out of the question and fits Sanofi's past with REGN and ALNY. Extreme value alert at $3.56 per share Something will happens SHORTLYWe all might be very disappointed in the current PPS but it won't last much longer. At $3.56 a share Sanofi would be crazy not to go ahead and buy into Mannkind. 10% is about 41,000,000 shares . At $3.56 that is $145,000,000 They might as well pull the trigger. Or go ahead and buy the entire company for about 5 billion $10.00 per share. Buy into the entire company saves them about $925,000,000 in future milestones. So eith buy in or buy out by Sanofi will happen SHORTLY. THUMBS UP if you agree. KC, I don't think mannkind is worth less than $35 a share, even Jefferies mentioned "Jefferies reiterated their Buy recommendation with price targets of $9 going on to $37 by 2017." Although I wish for a buyout, if any has to happen this week or coming weeks, it should be a least 10x bagger, simply because, when jefferies e.g speaks of the peak at $37, i.e there will certainly be as much sales revenues on the other side of the peak: $0....$peak....$flat....$0 This price as of today is delusional. I am sorry. You have putrid script numbers (slow launch or not), insurance and Dr road blocks. Go look at the rating for that analyst. No board is going to approve the purchase of a drug based on 30-40 social media user reviews. We all want the drug to succeed and maybe one day it gets there but a buy out as of today at $35. Its ridiculous.
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Post by newmnkdinvestor on Aug 25, 2015 9:30:50 GMT -5
Let me pour some cold water on the idea of a SNY buyout (disclosure: I am LONG and really hope I am wrong on this call. Still it strikes me as just plain delusional). Here are some reasons: - Sanofi could have easily purchased an equity stake in the partnership negotiations - Sanofi could have easily purchased an equity stake in today's convertible refi - Sanofi actually "owns" 65% of MNKD through the partnership (yes, I know, TI exists, too, but we are years away from any revenue). - Building up a position slowly through open market purchases is not even possible. Due to the massive ensuing short squeeze if SNY stepped in, which admittedly would be a lot of fun to watch (too bad), the price for anything but the first 3% of shares or so would be hugely higher within probably the same trading day of the announcement - not good... but even more importantly: - For Sanofi, a few % of the shares are irrelevant, just too small to matter. They have strategic say about Afrezza, MNKD's only real asset today, anyway! Daily share price movements, i.e. "recouping their investment in 2 days" is totally irrelevant. They might care about buying 100%, but then they have Al Mann to deal with, who, for bad or worse, probably does not like the idea to sell his massive stake at anything not a significant multiple of the USD 900m or so that he has invested. My guess (just pure gut feeling) would be Al is not selling below at least USD 25-30 per share. I do not think he puts any importance on the current share price that a bunch of mainly retail fools (under which I proudly include myself) have created with their panicky short term trading. Bottom line: Al is not selling at these levels. So a buyout is an illusion. - Lastly: Sanofi undoubtedly sees the opportunity in Afrezza. And I agree: saving the milestones would be real money, just not for SNY: saving USD 700m, for example, amount to a staggering 0.55% of SNY market cap. Why spend a multiple of that for acquiring MNKD if there is a real chance, albeit I hope not, that Afrezza goes bust? - How much does SNY know about the chance of Afrezza becoming a blockbuster compared to folks like us? Well, mainly one crucial factor: they know the real motivation of their sales force and they know the roll-out strategy, and can evaluate better than we can if pathetic scripts so far are merely an accident or part of the longer term game plan. I sincerely believe in the latter, in SNY putting the brakes on until they can make better marketing claims, all bottlenecks in the referral/insurance systems are eliminated etc until turning up the heat. But they can't know at this point if their game plan is going to work! Pfizer didn't know either! They will know only a few months before we do. All logical points. Nice post.
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Post by kball on Aug 25, 2015 10:00:58 GMT -5
What i am HOPING for is something on the order of 2 triples in 4 years. So about $10-12 Summer 2017. And $30-36 Summer 2019
Then 2020-2022 Sanofi acquires. Perhaps achievable. Perhaps still optimistic.
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