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Post by cjc04 on Nov 9, 2015 19:52:49 GMT -5
I'm not so sure the shorts are our biggest concern. We all know they're already over extended, and maybe (hopefully) even more so over the last few days.... It's how much long selling is going on right now. If the Institutional % remains the same, and they're not selling in light of the last few days, then I'm not sure there's too much more they can do.
Hopefully the Institutions are still holding after today.
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Post by mbseeking on Nov 9, 2015 20:19:08 GMT -5
I'm not so sure the price will go down the next few days before the 12th, nor that the Shorts are motivated to do that. Though not on the SHO list currently , MNKD was until a couple of days ago.. indicating the Shorts had nearly exhausted available shares to short. Second, why would they want to drive down the price to allow a new strategic Long to get a lower price - that's simply giving a Long (TASE indices ) what that want - a lower entry price. They would want to drive down the price because MNKD will only sell 50M shares. So at $3/share, MannKind makes $150M minus the financing fees of $0.10/share. At $2/share, it's $100M. In this battle with the Shorts I'm also not sure that this matters. If only $100m , and sales dont pick up, then MNKD issues some more stock (again I'm fine with that). Regardless $100m or $150M we now have up to 50M shares in hands of people who act like Longs, who see value in MNKD if the share price goes up. I think that is the more significant number here: 50M shares that cant be shorted and have value if they go up. Chaotic systems are all about initial conditions and equilibrium. I cant but help feel that a butterfly has started flapping its wings against the shorts. Yes these are difficult times for MNKD. But listing on TASE may yet turn out to be a masterstroke. And if it does, I hope there will be a lot of soul searching at Nasdaq, SEC. What would it say about the US being the pre-eminent market for capital creation.? In the future would all biotechs start listing in TASE instead? |
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Post by whanley7 on Nov 9, 2015 21:04:50 GMT -5
What is going to stop the shorts from absolutely hammering the SP the next 3 days do MNKD gets as little $ as possible from the dilution? They will try to drive the stock to $2 or less so we get less than 100 mil from this.
Sell the shares before the announcement was made so this death spiral of the SP doesn't continue. I have seen this happen just months ago with the convertible debt fiasco.
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 9, 2015 21:13:47 GMT -5
The index funds don't allow shares to be shorted but how do they police this and who over sees that they aren't? I am bringing this up because it's no secret that financial entities don't always do as they say and follow the rules when making money is involved.
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 9, 2015 21:21:45 GMT -5
And tomorrow we'll see if this was priced in and part of the recent slide or if there's more sliding to come. I'm already in deep but am moving some things around to make room. I'm going to consciously violate my "no single stock of more than 10% of net worth rule" if this thing goes on sale much deeper. Too bad we didn't plan ahead and dilute when we were trading at 7 or so. AH trading would suggest that it wasn't priced in. The bottom has yet to be seen imo. Management didn't do its investors any favors today. Sorry to be negative but there are some things you just can't spin and today's quarterly call was like listening to someone singing off key in front of a lot of people. |
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Post by ricguy on Nov 9, 2015 21:22:24 GMT -5
What is going to stop the shorts from absolutely hammering the SP the next 3 days do MNKD gets as little $ as possible from the dilution? They will try to drive the stock to $2 or less so we get less than 100 mil from this. Sell the shares before the announcement was made so this death spiral of the SP doesn't continue. I have seen this happen just months ago with the convertible debt fiasco. And this brings in the issue of lending your shares. I've never seen people get bashed so much for suggesting an opposing view like some on here and yet there are the so called almighty Al will save the day MNKDers that are loaning their shares to short. Great job, $ does rule everything. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 9, 2015 21:27:07 GMT -5
bill... fair point that amount raised could be lower than implied... but to me it is a good thing that as the price goes down the shares sold will go down vs going up to meet a fixed dollar amount. I'd rather take less dilution at these prices, rolling the dice that there will be something on the Afrezza and/or TS front within the next 9 months that would push share price to more favorable levels.
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Post by james on Nov 9, 2015 21:34:26 GMT -5
Well - I don't know. It seems like all the news is out at this point. There could be some additional scary talk floated about 'death spiral financing' and termination of the contract, but when this is said and done, dilution is 12% while somewhere between 1 and 1.5 years will have been added to the clock. In addition Sanofi has made at least some offer of current support; whatever you think that is worth.
For the short, the question could be asked, do you want to continue to pay ~60%+ for the next year to see if the situation continues to degrade or SNY is secretly planning to walk? That seems like a very difficult proposition to succeed with. Meanwhile, apparently they are not going to get a shot at purchasing the 50M TASE shares (not entirely sure about the accuracy of these claims) and there's the possibility sales could improve given additional advertising, etc. If I were short, I'd be thinking about the near term exit strategy.
For the long, the question is am I willing to continue accepting risk to see what the next 6 to 12 months brings in Afrezza sales or other developments?
Traditional theory would suggest that all other tings being equal, the affect on SP here would be limited to the net change announced; so 12% downside at the open and then flatline until the deal closes. I tend to think that the negativity that brought the price to this point has run its course and there should be some amount of bounce in the coming days. Whether this happens before or after 11/15, I certainly don't know, but if there should happen to be any type of upward response tomorrow, I don't see why it couldn't catch a little momentum.
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dme306
Lab Rat
Know what you own!
Posts: 25 
Sentiment: Long
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Post by dme306 on Nov 9, 2015 21:35:33 GMT -5
The fact that anybody would look at this and says "yeah, why not? this works" or if your prefer the unofficial translation "Yay, we live for a few more months, that was close", proves per se how borderline desperate the feeling of the posts in this board have become. I guess the alternatives are obvious? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 21:51:50 GMT -5
DBC: What's going to win this war, is increasing script counts from here on out.
Do you recall back in February, when Afrezza first came out, all the shorts would discuss was how horrible low script counts were? Do you recall how the shorts/writers did "weekly script updates" on various boards, beginning way back in March, screaming; "look at how low the script count was; worse than its predecessor," but neglecting to mention Afrezza was only 1 month on the market? Then the shorts/writers continued with the script count nonsense until it became obvious that the script count was going up, and boom, the shorts on a dime, completely stop talking about scripts? Do you notice that today, the shorts never talk about scripts anymore except for one looney-tune writer at SA? Why is that? It's because the shorts know a rising script count, (which is now surely and slowly underway), is their ultimate Kryptonite; that's why!
IMO we will see a rising script counts going into 2016. Soft-bashers here will all be gone by this time next year, or sooner. (halloa!). Aloha.
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Post by patryn on Nov 9, 2015 21:58:11 GMT -5
I believe that most of the people here are not soft-bashers. They are people who have invested financially and emotionally into MNKD the company and to see the stock take the roller coaster ride it has can be un-nerving for even the most die hard investors. You can only see a person's true mettle come out in times of adversity and this is one of those times. If the stock price were in the stratosphere, or the weekly script count was higher, or heck even if the company weren't running a deficit, you would not be seeing any of these capitulatory posts. Of course if all those things were true, we wouldn't have nearly as much entertainment on a daily basis either. Notice that the truly amazing stocks and the truly bad ones do not have much of a following one way or another.
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Post by blindhog1 on Nov 9, 2015 22:03:31 GMT -5
bill... fair point that amount raised could be lower than implied... but to me it is a good thing that as the price goes down the shares sold will go down vs going up to meet a fixed dollar amount. I'd rather take less dilution at these prices, rolling the dice that there will be something on the Afrezza and/or TS front within the next 9 months that would push share price to more favorable levels. Oy vey, this is a sneaky move by Al Mann. He was pacing back and forth wondering how he could make a move on the forces trying to block his latest wonder.
Since he would have a little time to play with because of TS, placement in the Israeli Stock Exchange would be the answer. What a guy. 
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 22:04:32 GMT -5
I guess we must be reading two different boards then is all I can say. Aloha.
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Post by blindhog1 on Nov 9, 2015 22:08:19 GMT -5
I guess we must be reading two different boards then is all I can say. Aloha. Not at all. We just have a different read. I don't mind the placement. It solves a lot of problems and buys a lot of time. |
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Post by james on Nov 9, 2015 22:14:42 GMT -5
DBC: What's going to win this war, is increasing script counts from here on out. Do you recall back in February, when Afrezza first came out, all the shorts would discuss was how horrible low script counts were? Do you recall how the shorts/writers did "weekly script updates" on various boards, beginning way back in March, screaming; "look at how low the script count was; worse than its predecessor," but neglecting to mention Afrezza was only 1 month on the market? Then the shorts/writers continued with the script count nonsense until it became obvious that the script count was going up, and boom, the shorts on a dime, completely stop talking about scripts? Do you notice that today, the shorts never talk about scripts anymore except for one looney-tune writer at SA? Why is that? It's because the shorts know a rising script count, (which is now surely and slowly underway), is their ultimate Kryptonite; that's why! IMO we will see a rising script counts going into 2016. Soft-bashers here will all be gone by this time next year, or sooner. (halloa!). Aloha. I think the pundits have not been beating on this one because there were bigger drums available. I don't see that script counts have been rising enough over the past couple of months to counter this argument (perhaps 20% in the last 2 months). So, we will hear this called out again (along with "when will SNY bail") and repeatedly unless some significant change can be seen over the next few months. By significant, I think some indication that Affrezza can reach towards maybe $50M in sales next year. It doesn't have to happen all at once but the trajectory needs to increase. |
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