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Post by inittowinit on Nov 9, 2015 22:17:52 GMT -5
Well, it will buy SOME time. But without a plan, you can expect the same results.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 22:21:00 GMT -5
Yes James, and I contend that will be the case. I fully expect to witness increasing script counts throughout 2016, with emphasis on the 2nd half of the year. Like you said, on a trajectory going up. Let's hope we're both correct!
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Post by nylefty on Nov 9, 2015 22:21:37 GMT -5
The fact that anybody would look at this and says "yeah, why not? this works" or if your prefer the unofficial translation "Yay, we live for a few more months, that was close", proves per se how borderline desperate the feeling of the posts in this board have become. I'm not at all "borderline" or any other kind of desperate. The TASE deal buys us more than a "few months" and I'm confident that insurance coverage and DTC will turn the ship around by mid-2016. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 22:24:22 GMT -5
I agree Lefty. I expect increasing script counts from here on out. 2016 will be good to us IMO.
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Post by morfu on Nov 9, 2015 22:29:19 GMT -5
A key mention in the call is that Israeli index funds CANNOT lend their shares. Well I really dont understand that... Shouldnt it be in the best interest of the company (and thus the management) to sell the shares to the highest bidder? What is bad in there is a guy who pays 20mil more and then uses the shares to short repeadetly in order to lets say half the stock value? Mnkd would have gotten 20mil more cash in that example and maybe done well with it.. the shorts will go away as soon as the stock gets healthy! This price manipulation attempt by the management is bound to fail in my opinion.. and quite pointless.. why is the company concerne about a low share price? They just sold their shares.. low prices are interesting for investors! People like me who lend out their shares and short term investors want to have high stock prices.. surely the management does not want to support either of these groups!? About the expected amount, here is what I wrote on yahoo just before today.. I hope it holds up: [..] The weekly sales right now are about 350k$ (at least according to the pro board numbers) If Mannkind gets about 25% of that and continues to have a growth rate of about 2%, it will take about 3 years to ramp up the sales by a factor of 25 in order to get to 2.5mil$ weekly as bmcgoo_03 indicated, that means, in that time we would need about 360mil$ total, of which 60mil can be generated rather easily and 120mil would come from the ramping sales over the 3 years.. Leaving about 180mil missing so far... Hopefully Sanofi decides to buy in or maybe all the milestone money makes it into the books somehow to save the day.. And of course I consider this a worst case scenario.. So, yes there might be a dilution or similar deal in the near future, but nothing life threatening... In the meantime I collect my 40% from the shorts and buy more shares.. I might end up rich one day[..] 180 mil is my estimate to get the company in the green.. quite close to the number expected from this sale... Where is all the milestone money?? |
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Post by anderson on Nov 9, 2015 22:35:48 GMT -5
Hmm as i see it this is going to bottom in the next couple of days before the offering. The shorts have a lot of risk with MNKD getting a years supply of cash and the uncertainty of how sales will be in the next year(there will be a sudden spike sometime, just when). So the shorts have to make sure MNKD get as little as possible with this offering to continue the MNKD is going bankrupt route. Either that or if they can get out take their profits and head for the door. The big guys are probably to far in to get out quickly so anyone with dry powder left might get a great buying opportunity.
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Post by blindhog1 on Nov 9, 2015 22:45:15 GMT -5
The fact that anybody would look at this and says "yeah, why not? this works" or if your prefer the unofficial translation "Yay, we live for a few more months, that was close", proves per se how borderline desperate the feeling of the posts in this board have become. I'm not at all "borderline" or any other kind of desperate. The TASE deal buys us more than a "few months" and I'm confident that insurance coverage and DTC will turn the ship around by mid-2016. And you've got to look at least one deal with TS and a couple out of development and on the table. This has bought us a huge amount of time and opportunity. |
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 9, 2015 22:58:23 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this isn't nearly as bad as a secondary offering type of dilution. They're not being offered to the public, but rather ONLY to long-term-holding ETFs, no? Are the Israelis getting a discount on the stock, and if so, why aren't US shareholders given the same benefits? It seems to me that the rose-colored glasses of longs including myself have not been providing a faithful representation of errrr how shall I put it? Reality. Could be some cronyism in progress between our dear MNKD mgmt and the likes of TASE, even GS and Jay Olsen.... come on, seriously, tell me than all of this naked shorting couldn't have been stopped. Hakan said, "we are aware that we can have a conversation with the SEC.... but I can't talk about that" Welllll.... stop smiling and start talking. Answers. You guys in southern California, Connecticut, and now Israel have been subsidized by my IRA funds which was all hard-earned money. My questions, 1. When does this end? 2. Will longs EVER get their whole investment back? DON'T GET ME WRONG. I have been there in the CalTech auditorium when some very famous people speak and it's a total love fest, they are our idols, there are hands shaken, autographs, hugs, all of that, but nobody ever puts down a huge sum of money because of someone's personality or comments about "this will be the biggest prescription medicine ever" ---- look at the chart. It looks like it is going to zero and if it does, you will be worshipping AF.. scary huh? Totally possibly however. |
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 9, 2015 23:00:06 GMT -5
But let's not take it out on management.... Promise no dilution after FDA approval when most biotech historically dilute, no wait till stock price is abysmal. So the future of MNKD is so bright, we sell 10% of it for $100M? Kick in the teeth for anyone believing Al Mann could get on his horse and save MNKD again. Management out! We are so done. Fire the liars. Just watch. In five years, the company will be in Israeli hands and we'll be broke. We deserve an explanation. We've been lied to, repeatedly. |
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Post by obamayoumama on Nov 9, 2015 23:11:09 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this isn't nearly as bad as a secondary offering type of dilution. They're not being offered to the public, but rather ONLY to long-term-holding ETFs, no? Are the Israelis getting a discount on the stock, and if so, why aren't US shareholders given the same benefits? It seems to me that the rose-colored glasses of longs including myself have not been providing a faithful representation of errrr how shall I put it? Reality. Could be some cronyism in progress between our dear MNKD mgmt and the likes of TASE, even GS and Jay Olsen.... come on, seriously, tell me than all of this naked shorting couldn't have been stopped. Hakan said, "we are aware that we can have a conversation with the SEC.... but I can't talk about that" Welllll.... stop smiling and start talking. Answers. You guys in southern California, Connecticut, and now Israel have been subsidized by my IRA funds which was all hard-earned money. My questions, 1. When does this end? 2. Will longs EVER get their whole investment back? DON'T GET ME WRONG. I have been there in the CalTech auditorium when some very famous people speak and it's a total love fest, they are our idols, there are hands shaken, autographs, hugs, all of that, but nobody ever puts down a huge sum of money because of someone's personality or comments about "this will be the biggest prescription medicine ever" ---- look at the chart. It looks like it is going to zero and if it does, you will be worshipping AF.. scary huh? Totally possibly however. This still leaves the shorts with over 120 million shares short, not increasing the available shares to short and their HTB interest rate is burning away their cost basis. Are the shorts going hang in there until Jan. 16 to see if AF's is right about SNY dropping Afrezza? I guess we will see. MNKD's new cash gives MNKD time, well into 2017, and between now and then, they should have the TS side moving. This offering is now a nightmare for the shorts, a small tight exit that 120 million shares are going to try and fit through. |
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 9, 2015 23:20:12 GMT -5
Are the Israelis getting a discount on the stock, and if so, why aren't US shareholders given the same benefits? It seems to me that the rose-colored glasses of longs including myself have not been providing a faithful representation of errrr how shall I put it? Reality. Could be some cronyism in progress between our dear MNKD mgmt and the likes of TASE, even GS and Jay Olsen.... come on, seriously, tell me than all of this naked shorting couldn't have been stopped. Hakan said, "we are aware that we can have a conversation with the SEC.... but I can't talk about that" Welllll.... stop smiling and start talking. Answers. You guys in southern California, Connecticut, and now Israel have been subsidized by my IRA funds which was all hard-earned money. My questions, 1. When does this end? 2. Will longs EVER get their whole investment back? DON'T GET ME WRONG. I have been there in the CalTech auditorium when some very famous people speak and it's a total love fest, they are our idols, there are hands shaken, autographs, hugs, all of that, but nobody ever puts down a huge sum of money because of someone's personality or comments about "this will be the biggest prescription medicine ever" ---- look at the chart. It looks like it is going to zero and if it does, you will be worshipping AF.. scary huh? Totally possibly however. This still leaves the shorts with over 120 million shares short, not increasing the available shares to short and their HTB interest rate is burning away their cost basis. Are the shorts going hang in there until Jan. 16 to see if AF's is right about SNY dropping Afrezza? I guess we will see. MNKD's new cash gives MNKD time, well into 2017, and between now and then, they should have the TS side moving. This offering is now a nightmare for the shorts, a small tight exit that 120 million shares are going to try and fit through. >>>>>We have been hearing this about a SQUEEZE for months. Thing is, plenty of longs RIGHT HERE ON THIS BOARD, will continue to loan shares to those shorts so they can do their options plays and daily shenanigans, and also use naked shorting to illegally manipulate price, because nobody of any stature is complaining about it (although Hakan is aware that "a conversation could be started with SEC") ... Management has a very real credibility problem at this point. They have offices in Southern California and Connecticut, both places with a lot of wealthy and well-connected power brokers, all the tools are at hand, why isn't anything being done? Self-interest? Cronyism? Want to get really tin-foil hat? How about deep discounts for Israeli connections? Who knows? We will watch our investment value plummet and try to rationalize via lost-cost fallacy -- we may be totally mistaken. Be worried. <<<<<<< |
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 9, 2015 23:49:59 GMT -5
The fact that anybody would look at this and says "yeah, why not? this works" or if your prefer the unofficial translation "Yay, we live for a few more months, that was close", proves per se how borderline desperate the feeling of the posts in this board have become. Given the situation, not 6 months ago, not 2 months ago, but the situation we as a company were faced with, how would you have raised the 125 to 150 million dollars. The label and insurance are real issues, they can be dealt with, but until they are, DTC, and high rx numbers weren't in the cards. Im thankful we had this option. If you really think about it, we had 37m after paying the debt in cash. We are required to maintain 25m due to Deerfield. How do you think the call would have went without the TASE listing, what would you have done ?? The call was as good as it could have been considering. Now as we continue to deal with issues, PWD can still get Afrezza, more amazing data will be logged, pediatric trials and other clinical trials will continue to show Sanofi and the rest of the world how superior Afrezza really is. We will be fine. Good Luck EOD |
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Post by rrtzmd on Nov 9, 2015 23:58:54 GMT -5
Did MNKD try to sell any shares to SNY? Over the past few weeks, SNY has appeared in the news several times doling out hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars in deals with various companies, none of which -- as I recall -- had any products close to marketing. One might therefore conclude that SNY is flush with cash and not afraid of risking it. Them buying in MNKD stock would have produced a favorable impression with the public -- investment in afrezza's future, etc -- and presumably wouldn't have required a discount. The impression now created -- to me at least -- is that MNKD couldn't find anyone to buy their stock and chose to dual list in Israel as a "backdoor" to get financing -- the funds there being required to purchase MNKD stock and MNKD offering a 3% discount as incentive to buy directly from MNKD. |
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Post by rrtzmd on Nov 10, 2015 0:06:19 GMT -5
The fact that anybody would look at this and says "yeah, why not? this works" or if your prefer the unofficial translation "Yay, we live for a few more months, that was close", proves per se how borderline desperate the feeling of the posts in this board have become. Given the situation, not 6 months ago, not 2 months ago, but the situation we as a company were faced with, how would you have raised the 125 to 150 million dollars. The label and insurance are real issues, they can be dealt with, but until they are, DTC, and high rx numbers weren't in the cards. Im thankful we had this option. If you really think about it, we had 37m after paying the debt in cash. We are required to maintain 25m due to Deerfield. How do you think the call would have went without the TASE listing, what would you have done ?? The call was as good as it could have been considering. Now as we continue to deal with issues, PWD can still get Afrezza, more amazing data will be logged, pediatric trials and other clinical trials will continue to show Sanofi and the rest of the world how superior Afrezza really is. We will be fine. Good Luck EOD Why didn't anyone at MNKD recognize the issues back when MNKD was trading up around $7 in February and June or, better yet, back in May of 2014 when it was around 10-11 dollars a share and taken some financing steps while the stock was relatively strong? It seems like the drag on sales from black boxes, spirometry, insurance, etc, should have been obvious long before the launch. |
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Post by waldemar on Nov 10, 2015 3:04:15 GMT -5
If we assume that the cash obtained through Israeli ETFs would be 140 mln + 30 mln currently available = USD 170 mln. This is sufficient for appr. 5.5 quarters (cash burn 30 mln per quarter) i.e. until the very beginning of 2017. In order to avoid further dilution the following should happen:
1. Afrezza sales reach USD 343 mln – 35% profit split with SNY is USD 120 mln which will secure the existence of MNKD.
2. MNKD receives further milestone payments, but since they are mainly sales based they are closely related and can add value to point 1.
I don’t want to sound negative (just to give objective opinion) but at the current sales growth, I really doubt if the sales can reach 343 mln in one year.
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