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Post by parrerob on Nov 10, 2015 5:12:46 GMT -5
Guys, sorry but I am not so happy about 50M shares on TASE funds. Absolutely not.
We solved our financial probelm, that's fine, but practically We are giving Shorters a change for the next three days to manipulate further down our PPS in order to reduce the amount of dollars from the dilution. This means practically that, with the help of the shorters, We will reduce more our investment in the next 3 days and We will deliver a piece of our investment to Israel funds practically for peanuts.
I am a simple and stupid retail shareholder. But I am thinking about other funds investing in the company (blackrock for example) and buying at a different level/treatment. I don't think they are really happy about this move. We all supported the company for years, loosing money in our investments, and now We are giving a piece of our company for peanuts to friendly funds ? And the candle on the cake is that if our stocks will be shorted next 3 days, they will be happy and happy, and We will loose directly PPS + 10% of future investment ! I am a poor retailer and I have to accept and to keep the only positive outcome here: these shares are not possible to be shorted. But I am really wonder about our big investors ..... hope they will not step out from here.
Today, sorry, I am not so happy of the cash burn resolution.
I know We need cash, I am not stupid.... But is it possible to agree a different selling solution ? like fixing a price ? Guys, this is a rape ! If You have to buy today 50 Million MNKD shares in the market how much do You think it will be Your final investment price for share ? 2 - 3 ? or 4-7 ? This is a different story, for sure it will help us.... but it is a rape ! |
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Post by doubleo7 on Nov 10, 2015 6:49:41 GMT -5
The beauty of this is, that with shorties paying anywhere from 60 to 80 % and mnkd surviving at least until 2017, there is almost nothing to gain for them. Or in other words; their risk reward is even worse then that of the longs ...
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Post by cfield23 on Nov 10, 2015 10:49:36 GMT -5
They would want to drive down the price because MNKD will only sell 50M shares. So at $3/share, MannKind makes $150M minus the financing fees of $0.10/share. At $2/share, it's $100M. In this battle with the Shorts I'm also not sure that this matters. If only $100m , and sales dont pick up, then MNKD issues some more stock (again I'm fine with that). Regardless $100m or $150M we now have up to 50M shares in hands of people who act like Longs, who see value in MNKD if the share price goes up. I think that is the more significant number here: 50M shares that cant be shorted and have value if they go up. Chaotic systems are all about initial conditions and equilibrium. I cant but help feel that a butterfly has started flapping its wings against the shorts. Yes these are difficult times for MNKD. But listing on TASE may yet turn out to be a masterstroke. And if it does, I hope there will be a lot of soul searching at Nasdaq, SEC. What would it say about the US being the pre-eminent market for capital creation.? In the future would all biotechs start listing in TASE instead? One other thing I was curious about .... hear me out: Here's a quote from Matt from yesterday's call: "We expect that the majority of shares for index fund purchases will be issued directly for MannKind, with remaining demand required to be satisfied by open market purchasers from existing holders to fulfill these ownership requirements. All purchases are expected to be completed within the next week." -- SourceSounds to me like 50M shares might not cut it! ETFs balance on a overall % of their funds, not on a total # of shares basis. Therefore, there are two ways to look at what might happen: In the filing, MNKD says expected amount is up to ~$140M. Now, 50M shares at $2/share is less than at $3/share. At the $2/share, if the ETFs have a percentage holding goal for MNKD (which I'm sure they do), they'll need to buy more than the 50M shares to satisfy the same % holding. So, from the shorts' perspective, knocking down our price is good in that we'll get less capital from the offering, but it's also potentially bad as more than 50,000,000 shares might be gobbled up by the ETFs, and since they're long-term holders and cannot lend them, that'd mean less available shares to short for the shorts. Thoughts?
Taken from: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/4014/resolved-debt?page=3#ixzz3r6WNLBvb |
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 10, 2015 10:55:53 GMT -5
In this battle with the Shorts I'm also not sure that this matters. If only $100m , and sales dont pick up, then MNKD issues some more stock (again I'm fine with that). Regardless $100m or $150M we now have up to 50M shares in hands of people who act like Longs, who see value in MNKD if the share price goes up. I think that is the more significant number here: 50M shares that cant be shorted and have value if they go up. Chaotic systems are all about initial conditions and equilibrium. I cant but help feel that a butterfly has started flapping its wings against the shorts. Yes these are difficult times for MNKD. But listing on TASE may yet turn out to be a masterstroke. And if it does, I hope there will be a lot of soul searching at Nasdaq, SEC. What would it say about the US being the pre-eminent market for capital creation.? In the future would all biotechs start listing in TASE instead? One other thing I was curious about .... hear me out: Here's a quote from Matt from yesterday's call: "We expect that the majority of shares for index fund purchases will be issued directly for MannKind, with remaining demand required to be satisfied by open market purchasers from existing holders to fulfill these ownership requirements. All purchases are expected to be completed within the next week." -- SourceSounds to me like 50M shares might not cut it! ETFs balance on a overall % of their funds, not on a total # of shares basis. Therefore, there are two ways to look at what might happen: In the filing, MNKD says expected amount is up to ~$140M. Now, 50M shares at $2/share is less than at $3/share. At the $2/share, if the ETFs have a percentage holding goal for MNKD (which I'm sure they do), they'll need to buy more than the 50M shares to satisfy the same % holding. So, from the shorts' perspective, knocking down our price is good in that we'll get less capital from the offering, but it's also potentially bad as more than 50,000,000 shares might be gobbled up by the ETFs, and since they're long-term holders and cannot lend them, that'd mean less available shares to short for the shorts. Thoughts?
Taken from: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/4014/resolved-debt?page=3#ixzz3r6WNLBvbWhen you pull something like this from a position of weakness as Mannkind is right now, this is what happens. It might have been better for Al to gift the money to Mannkind instead of doing this. But even he isn't that stupid. |
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Post by doubleo7 on Nov 10, 2015 11:34:59 GMT -5
I would say this is all very good thinking and sooner or later at least one of the shorties will realise this too..
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Post by alethea on Nov 10, 2015 11:37:21 GMT -5
If we assume that the cash obtained through Israeli ETFs would be 140 mln + 30 mln currently available = USD 170 mln. This is sufficient for appr. 5.5 quarters (cash burn 30 mln per quarter) i.e. until the very beginning of 2017. In order to avoid further dilution the following should happen: 1. Afrezza sales reach USD 343 mln – 35% profit split with SNY is USD 120 mln which will secure the existence of MNKD. 2. MNKD receives further milestone payments, but since they are mainly sales based they are closely related and can add value to point 1. I don’t want to sound negative (just to give objective opinion) but at the current sales growth, I really doubt if the sales can reach 343 mln in one year. . PPS will likely be about 2.15 at tomorrow's close. TASE gets to buy stock @ 97%, or about 2.08. MNKD will net about 95% (after broker fees) or about $1.98 for at maximum, 50 million shares. Shorts will drive down PPS nearly 10% both today and tomorrow. Sad but true. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2015 11:42:02 GMT -5
Would like to veer off topic a bit and did not want to start another TASE thread so apologies in advance.
Question1: Would an institutional investor who buys shares of MNKD only on TASE have to disclose the position if they buy more than 5%?
Question 2: Same as #1 but for an individual investor?
At current market cap, IP is worth more than it is trading at. Still wonder if results of patients using Afrezza have caught eye of other industry players. Not satisfied with how Sanofi is progressing but some of the heavy lifting has been done. Wonder if another big pharma would consider throwing out a bid after accumulating a position. A $5 B bid is chump change to big pharma and TS would pay for that easily.
Sanofi gets first right of refusal but highest bid wins.
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Post by petech on Nov 10, 2015 11:44:20 GMT -5
Perhaps I am crazy...but I am actually ok with the 50M of new shares. If descriptions provided on the call are true, it sounds like the shares can't be sold as long as MNKD is part of the particular index.....and they can't be lent out (to help shorts). So while there are 50M new shares....I don't know what true effect that has on the common shareholder. Are these shares going to be sold thus driving down the price? No. Are they going to be lent driving down the price? No. Will it effect EPS....yes...but I suspect that won't matter for quite some time as P/E doesn't matter much when a company starts really growing. In the interim, MNKD gets $100M of new capital...and don't have to make interest payments/worry about principal repayment.
As shorts have doubled-down on an equity offering...I sincerely hope that MNKD announces any kind of technosphere partnership in the very short term so that we get a bounce.
That said....the thing that will truly move the share price is sales...and they are not there yet. I am happy Sanofi is still including us in their plans...but they are hardly pushing as much as I'd have liked. And Hakan's remarks regarding television advertising was measured (it may impact insurance negotiations / don't want to surprise doctors)...but it sure sounded like he was all for it (it would show the need). There's always going to be disagreement between partners about spend on a product...especially when one partner has a lot of things to deal with and the other has this drug as their main goal....but I'm not feeling that MNKD and Sanofi are as unified on approach as I once thought.
All that said, so long as they get ads in place and continue to fix insurance, I believe the science will win. It just is taking too damn long.
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Post by tonyz on Nov 10, 2015 12:14:14 GMT -5
I still think the sale was a pretty clever way to raise money without throwing a ton of shares on the market and driving the price down. However, a part of me would have loved to see what would have happened to the stock price if 50 million or so shares had to be purchased on the open market in a fairly short time. It would have been fun to watch. Mannkind's financial position probably outweighed considering that as an option.
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Post by tonyz on Nov 10, 2015 12:33:24 GMT -5
FYI - I didn't see this posted yet, but maybe I'm looking in the wrong place. BTW - The guy who tweeted "bankruptcy" yesterday said it was a "wise move" Just thought I'd share. DJ MannKind: Buying Time...But It's Still All About Afrezza -- Barron's Blog Nov 10, 2015 11:03:00 (ET) By Ben Levisohn Shares of MannKind ( MNKD) are tumbling today after the struggling biotech company announced that it would be selling up to 50 million shares by listing on the Tel Avive Stock excnage. RBC's Adnan Butt contends that MannKind is "buying time with innovative financing [but] demand trend still matters." He explains: Investors had been focused on when and how MannKind would raise additional capital to fund operations, along with Afrezza trajectory. MannKind disclosed the potential to sell up to 50M shares with its Tel Aviv Stock Exchange listing.Fundamentally, Afrezza ramp is still paramount where visibility from Sanofi ( SNY) is listed as that is what will determine the ultimate upside or downside scenario in MannKind shares.... MannKind's stock purchase agreements could lead to 50M shares of common stock being sold to selected investment funds in Israel and raising $120M+ assuming Monday's closing price. While this could address the financing overhang for the time being, ultimately Afrezza needs to grow to ensure MannKind's viability as expenses will continue to mount and debts will still need repayment. With $30M available from the Al Mann facility, $38M from the ATM, and potential 50M in shares offered, the pro forma total could be enough to fund operations into2017. The Street's Adam Feuerstein explains why going to Israel was a "wise move" for MannKind: As disclosed Monday night, MannKind will sell "up to" 50 million shares of its common stock directly to Israeli-managed index funds. These exchange-traded funds are required to buy MannKind shares because the stock is now dual listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE).) Instead of buying MannKind shares on the open market, MannKind offered to sell stock to the TASE ETF funds directly from the company's treasury at a 3% discount. The amount of money raised in this offering isn't known yet but will hinge on MannKind's weighting in the various TASE indices, which then dictates how many shares the Israeli ETF funds need to acquire. As anyone spying a stock chart lately knows, MannKind wasn't finding demand for its falling shares from U.S. investors, so dual-listing on the TASE and raising money from "forced" buyers in the Israeli investment community is a heads-up survival move. Shares of MannKind have tumbled 12% to $2.31 at 10:55 a.m. today, while Sanofi has declined 1.4% to $44.80. More at Barron's Stocks to Watch blog, blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/ (END) Dow Jones Newswires November 10, 2015 11:03 ET (16:03 GMT) |
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Post by kimi on Nov 10, 2015 12:41:01 GMT -5
This is my take on 50.000.000 shares
1. We know, shares for the indices are related to MCP
2. Shares needed should be around 30 Mill. a few days ago
3. As lower as the pps is on Nov. 12 less shares are needed
4. The difference between 50 Mill shares and needed shares is rising
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Who will profit most?
The guy who will buy this "difference shares" at a remarkable low price
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Absolutely genius strategy, Al!
Al let the shorts doing a great job for him.
(It's not of interest whether Mannkind generates $100 Mill or $150 Mill - Al would pay in any dangerous situation)
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Post by rrtzmd on Nov 10, 2015 13:13:53 GMT -5
Interesting quote of "Matt_PK" on SA "MannKind: Weekly Data Updates- 10/30/15 Data" article:
"I think what people forget is that index funds can be your best friend or your worst enemy, depending on which way the PPS is moving. If the stock is headed up then MNKD will have a higher weighting in the index and the fund will have to buy more shares in the open market, thus amplifying the gains. Conversely, if the stock heads down then MNKD will have a smaller weighting in the index and the fund will have to sell shares into the open market amplifying the losses. Index funds are like a sharp knife; they cut both ways."
I have to think about this one. I'm unsure as to how to assay its significance.
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Post by bradleysbest on Nov 10, 2015 13:18:00 GMT -5
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Post by irrationalexubera on Nov 10, 2015 13:46:54 GMT -5
Interesting quote of "Matt_PK" on SA "MannKind: Weekly Data Updates- 10/30/15 Data" article: "I think what people forget is that index funds can be your best friend or your worst enemy, depending on which way the PPS is moving. If the stock is headed up then MNKD will have a higher weighting in the index and the fund will have to buy more shares in the open market, thus amplifying the gains. Conversely, if the stock heads down then MNKD will have a smaller weighting in the index and the fund will have to sell shares into the open market amplifying the losses. Index funds are like a sharp knife; they cut both ways." I have to think about this one. I'm unsure as to how to assay its significance. i'd be curious what the "re-balancing" frequency is for these TASE index funds. weekly / monthly / quarterly / semi - annual / yearly? that would determine how much the tail moves when the SP wags. |
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 10, 2015 14:15:53 GMT -5
I think you'll find many of the answers to your questions here:
Press Release
August 09, 2015 - TASE to Consider All-New Equity Indices Methodology
Background
In July 2010, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) launched a new equity indices methodology, which aligned its methodology with that of leading international index providers and accelerated the growth of TASE index-tracking products.
Over the past year, given the growing experience and the changes which have occurred in the capital market, TASE is currently re-evaluating the existing methodology with an eye to introducing improvements aimed at rendering indices more robust for investors as well as for mid and small-cap companies seeking to raise capital on TASE.
The envisioned all-new methodology is designed to improve the stability of TASE's indices and significantly reduce the risk undertaken by investors and index tracking instruments, which currently manage assets of some NIS 37.5 billion in instruments tracking TASE equity indices alone.
The TASE board of directors has already undertaken a preliminary discussion of the issue and round tables between TASE’s indices team and market participants have already started in order to articulate finalized proposals. Once approved, the smooth transition to the all-new methodology will be conducted incrementally, over the course of a year in a monthly 12-steps.
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Simpler and "Investor-friendly" rebalancing rules:
- Monthly rebalancing will replace weekly, quarterly and some special rebalancing.
- The parameters for rebalancing share weights in the index will be simplified.
- A schedule of up-coming rebalancing dates will be regularly posted on the TASE website.
www.tase.co.il/eng/newsandevents/prarchive/2015/pages/pr_20150809.aspx |
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