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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 19:08:04 GMT -5
Post by jeremg on Nov 30, 2015 19:08:04 GMT -5
Al is unlikely to buy shares unless there is significant dilution, and he wants to maintain his ownership percentage. If it really looked like MNKD was going bankrupt I don't think Al would bail out the company. Remember it is operating expenses and debt service that is driving the $10 million/month cash burn. If MNKD went Chapter 11, and Al Mann paid off all the other note holders [which is less than $100 million to Deerfield et al.] he would own the company lock, stock and barrel. IMO I don't think Al would decide to go the route of BK for lack of operating capital and to recoup some of his losses. I think his legacy and the success of his life's work would be more of a motivating factor than monetary loss. Al is unlikely to lend MNKD more money until more dilutive financing is attempted, but if faced with the bankruptcy of MNKD as an entity and his life's work in tow, I think he would "bail" MNKD out and keep the operation going in one way or another. I'm not sure I'm following your assertion that Al would "own the company lock, stock and barrel." in bankruptcy...? If this is true then I guess the worst case scenario for Al isn't as bad as I had thought, which would motivate him even less to do anything strictly to the benefit of minority shareholders - definitely would open up the door for MAJOR lawsuits though.
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 19:08:46 GMT -5
Post by mnkdfann on Nov 30, 2015 19:08:46 GMT -5
Al is unlikely to buy shares unless there is significant dilution, and he wants to maintain his ownership percentage. If it really looked like MNKD was going bankrupt I don't think Al would bail out the company. Remember it is operating expenses and debt service that is driving the $10 million/month cash burn. If MNKD went Chapter 11, and Al Mann paid off all the other note holders [which is less than $100 million to Deerfield et al.] he would own the company lock, stock and barrel. IMO All fine and dandy. Except for the fact that he will then screw all his long-time believers/backers/friends and the isrealis. Concern about long-time believers/backers/friends is one thing ... but why would Al really give a hoot about some anonymous Israel based index funds?
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 19:13:40 GMT -5
Post by ezrasfund on Nov 30, 2015 19:13:40 GMT -5
All fine and dandy. Except for the fact that he will then screw all his long-time believers/backers/friends and the isrealis. I don't think Al will do this. Again, there is nothing in his history that would suggest he'll do this, not as a final act and especially when he has other options. And he does have options. I don't think you're right. Also, if that is the case why didn't Al let Mannkind go bankrupt when the company was faced with the 2nd CRL. By the logic of the above post, Al could have owned the whole company at a very good price by letting the company going bankrupt at that point. Remember I started with the point that Al would buy in if there was significant dilution. He did it before and would again. The reason is that a big sale of stock will bring in a large amount of working capital; that is if they can raise more money, if they can convince some deep pocket investors to pony up another $100 or $200 million. But if they cannot find investors with that kind of money and Al has to go it alone Chapter 11 may come first.
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Post by dpca10 on Nov 30, 2015 19:21:38 GMT -5
Ok, This is getting a little out of hand. Mnkd would dilute themselves down to a penny stock before they go bankrupt. If we had sold 40 million shares privately on the TASE we would have diluted mnkd 100 million to raid that for expenses. Nothing materially has changed unless you think 40 million more shares is the end of Mnkd. I speculate there will be a moderate dilution sometime after a catalyst is announced driving the share price up. Now they bought back the 9 million shares from b of a and the 12 mill TASE shares seem less toxic due to their holding requirements. So yes MNKD will never risk bankruptcy, especially considering earnings should pick up and contribute every day that goes on. Finally I think if this company was really in financial trouble they would sell for around $2-3 billion. (Yes they are worth more) but a distressed sale would force a low price.
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 19:29:15 GMT -5
Post by ezrasfund on Nov 30, 2015 19:29:15 GMT -5
Ok, This is getting a little out of hand. Mnkd would dilute themselves down to a penny stock before they go bankrupt. If we had sold 40 million shares privately on the TASE we would have diluted mnkd 100 million to raid that for expenses. Nothing materially has changed unless you think 40 million more shares is the end of Mnkd. I speculate there will be a moderate dilution sometime after a catalyst is announced driving the share price up. Now they bought back the 9 million shares from b of a and the 12 mill TASE shares seem less toxic due to their holding requirements. So yes MNKD will never risk bankruptcy, especially considering earnings should pick up and contribute every day that goes on. Finally I think if this company was really in financial trouble they would sell for around $2-3 billion. (Yes they are worth more) but a distressed sale would force a low price. I agree. The science of technosphere and the miracle of Afrezza have not changed. But the 500 scrips/week also has not changed, and that has us heading downhill.
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 30, 2015 19:34:05 GMT -5
Ok, This is getting a little out of hand. Mnkd would dilute themselves down to a penny stock before they go bankrupt. If we had sold 40 million shares privately on the TASE we would have diluted mnkd 100 million to raid that for expenses. Nothing materially has changed unless you think 40 million more shares is the end of Mnkd. I speculate there will be a moderate dilution sometime after a catalyst is announced driving the share price up. Now they bought back the 9 million shares from b of a and the 12 mill TASE shares seem less toxic due to their holding requirements. So yes MNKD will never risk bankruptcy, especially considering earnings should pick up and contribute every day that goes on. Finally I think if this company was really in financial trouble they would sell for around $2-3 billion. (Yes they are worth more) but a distressed sale would force a low price. I agree. The science of technosphere and the miracle of Afrezza have not changed. But the 500 scrips/week also has not changed, and that has us heading downhill. the refills are increasing prntscr.com/98wrge in a very linear way. This is with a reported 2/3 of patients being declined ... plenty of room for improvement, for sure. I am not convinced that the nRx and tRx numbers are reliable, but the IMS and Symphony refill numbers agree very well fwiw
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 19:36:26 GMT -5
alethea likes this
Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 30, 2015 19:36:26 GMT -5
Ok, This is getting a little out of hand. Mnkd would dilute themselves down to a penny stock before they go bankrupt. If we had sold 40 million shares privately on the TASE we would have diluted mnkd 100 million to raid that for expenses. Nothing materially has changed unless you think 40 million more shares is the end of Mnkd. I speculate there will be a moderate dilution sometime after a catalyst is announced driving the share price up. Now they bought back the 9 million shares from b of a and the 12 mill TASE shares seem less toxic due to their holding requirements. So yes MNKD will never risk bankruptcy, especially considering earnings should pick up and contribute every day that goes on. Finally I think if this company was really in financial trouble they would sell for around $2-3 billion. (Yes they are worth more) but a distressed sale would force a low price. Don't you have to have earnings before they can pick up? Right now it is losses contributing every day.
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 19:41:08 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cjc04 on Nov 30, 2015 19:41:08 GMT -5
I certainly hope all the stress on this board is a sign of near term capitulation, I know I'm there, and it's a sh;ty feeling. As for the dropping share price, let's not forget that there is nothing causing buyers to buy the stock. Inexplicable low script numbers, one bad event after another and dead silence from the company for over a year. It will take buyers to raise the sp, and it will take a catalyst to bring the buyers. Dead silence? I thought the bashers' talking point was that the management was guilty of "deceit" and "lies." Hard to keep all the basher theories straight. I especially like the one that says this is all a plot so that powerful interests can load up at these low prices in order to cash in later when the stock price soars. I like that one because it will mean that my investment will pay off in a big way. I like that one too.... I really don't see anything negative if "the big boys" are accumulating shares on the cheap. I just wish I knew that was the plan, instead of zipper lip from MNKD, and poo poo poo from everyone else.
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Post by jeremg on Nov 30, 2015 19:41:41 GMT -5
Ok, This is getting a little out of hand. Mnkd would dilute themselves down to a penny stock before they go bankrupt. If we had sold 40 million shares privately on the TASE we would have diluted mnkd 100 million to raid that for expenses. Nothing materially has changed unless you think 40 million more shares is the end of Mnkd. I speculate there will be a moderate dilution sometime after a catalyst is announced driving the share price up. Now they bought back the 9 million shares from b of a and the 12 mill TASE shares seem less toxic due to their holding requirements. So yes MNKD will never risk bankruptcy, especially considering earnings should pick up and contribute every day that goes on. Finally I think if this company was really in financial trouble they would sell for around $2-3 billion. (Yes they are worth more) but a distressed sale would force a low price. Very even-handed commentary, thank you. I think what you've described would be a best case scenario but not unlikely. If Al can force the share price up on some sort of material event and then offer the remaining shares that had been earmarked for the TASE it would buy us the year we so desperately need. Yes, still dilution that I would not like to see, but if he pulls it off at a higher price than what we were risking during the TASE offering, we will have erased a few dreadful weeks since the TASE fail (and lost a Hakan for good measure). I just don't know if he can pull this off but if he can it'll be the first battle with Al back at the helm, won. On your last point, I think a sale for $2-3bil is absolutely wishful thinking. 1) you have to have an interested party (consider the outside optics of MNKD when assessing this) and 2) you'd have to have an interested party willing to pay a 150-200% premium over current market value (consider the optics for this other companies shareholders when assessing this) and lastly but most importantly 3) Al has no leverage whatsoever (if you could have negative leverage, that would be our situation) when drafting a deal - there's also 4)5)6)7) & etc^10) why a buyout is out of the question at this point, but at the risk of firing up the "faith" crowd, i'll leave it at that.
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Post by nylefty on Nov 30, 2015 19:49:11 GMT -5
As I've said before, I started investing in MannKind last spring, after doing my DD. It seemed clear to me that it would take more than a year from launch for most doctors and insurance plans to accept this new drug and that therefore significant sales wouldn't happen until sometime in the first quarter of 2016 (perhaps late in that quarter).
Nothing has happened to make me change my mind. Seems to me that all the panic being expressed on this board is unwarranted.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 30, 2015 19:56:05 GMT -5
Just another stomach churning thought, but what if Mr. Mann, which obviously is playing with a full deck, is not dumping more money into the venture because he now has information about acceptance, coverage, Sanofi, etc., that he did not have before and has determined this would not be in his best interest, financially speaking. and EOTD joins mssciguy on the blocklist. poor EOTD, how the tables have turned for a once-long pumper! sell and be gone, your paranoia has officially consumed your remaining rationale. With due respect (and if I'm not already blocked), we really don't need to have these decisions publicly announced. You certainly are free to do so, but that is an aspect of ymb I'd hate to see here where everyone is constantly posting about blocking others. Just seems to create an unnecessarily confrontational or mildly threatening environment. I'm sure no one really considers being blocked by others as significant, but still. Also respectfully, regarding this post that seems to have been some back breaking straw for you... is it really paranoia to suggest that there is a possibility that there is a problem that is real and known to Al? Maybe whatever it is that has hampered sales will disappear tomorrow... but whatever it is may be something outside of Al's control. If there is a problem outside of Al's control, it may well not be in his financial best interest to invest more at current price. Obviously not many people are buying right now. Al may indeed know something about the obstacles and their resolution that would give him a more optimistic investing opinion, but it seems speculation at this point. I've never considered myself a pumper. I'm a long time long and believe in Afrezza... but do see unresolved market issues and very concerned about MNKD's fiancial situation.
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Post by liane on Nov 30, 2015 20:04:19 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise, You beat me to the punchline. Yes, we don't need public proclamations of who is blocking who. Those will be deleted whenever we see them.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 30, 2015 20:11:37 GMT -5
As I've said before, I started investing in MannKind last spring, after doing my DD. It seemed clear to me that it would take more than a year from launch for most doctors and insurance plans to accept this new drug and that therefore significant sales wouldn't happen until sometime in the first quarter of 2016 (perhaps late in that quarter). Nothing has happened to make me change my mind. Seems to me that all the panic being expressed on this board is unwarranted. It seems that everyone that has checked their insurance fomulary that kicks in Jan 1 against their insurance now in effect has found that the state of coverage and tier has not improved. I'm not sure what your reasoning for picking Q1 2016 as the time for meaningful sales improvement. I guess I was hopefull that the new calendar year plans would show some improvement, so for me something has happened by virtue of lack of something happening. Most plans probably aren't updated more than once a quarter, so if formulary coverage is one of the bigger barriers to sales increase, something I believe, then it is looking like Q1 isn't going to be our magic turning point. By the way... I'm a bit more expressing despair than panic. Hard to tell through a post, but when I panic I run around flailing my arms... right now I'm just sunk in my chair staring at the keyboard with an exhausted look. By the way 2, back a number of weeks ago, I ran around flailing my arms when formularylookup.com accidentally posted that coverage had gone up over 10% in one day... that was joy not despair.
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 30, 2015 20:33:08 GMT -5
It may jump again for good this time. I still wonder if Formulary Lookup had inadvertently entered start dates in November for coverages that were intended to start next month or January. A 10% jump in coverage is certainly possible for 2016.
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Post by nylefty on Nov 30, 2015 20:41:18 GMT -5
As I've said before, I started investing in MannKind last spring, after doing my DD. It seemed clear to me that it would take more than a year from launch for most doctors and insurance plans to accept this new drug and that therefore significant sales wouldn't happen until sometime in the first quarter of 2016 (perhaps late in that quarter). Nothing has happened to make me change my mind. Seems to me that all the panic being expressed on this board is unwarranted. It seems that everyone that has checked their insurance fomulary that kicks in Jan 1 against their insurance now in effect has found that the state of coverage and tier has not improved. I'm not sure what your reasoning for picking Q1 2016 as the time for meaningful sales improvement. I guess I was hopefull that the new calendar year plans would show some improvement, so for me something has happened by virtue of lack of something happening. Most plans probably aren't updated more than once a quarter, so if formulary coverage is one of the bigger barriers to sales increase, something I believe, then it is looking like Q1 isn't going to be our magic turning point. All right. I probably should have said that the docs will start accepting in Q1 and the insurance plans in Q2 and Q3. But even in that scenerio, sales would start trending up in the first half of the year and do even better in the second half.
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