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Post by cathode on Nov 30, 2015 20:51:00 GMT -5
Ok, This is getting a little out of hand. Mnkd would dilute themselves down to a penny stock before they go bankrupt. If we had sold 40 million shares privately on the TASE we would have diluted mnkd 100 million to raid that for expenses. Nothing materially has changed unless you think 40 million more shares is the end of Mnkd. I speculate there will be a moderate dilution sometime after a catalyst is announced driving the share price up. Now they bought back the 9 million shares from b of a and the 12 mill TASE shares seem less toxic due to their holding requirements. So yes MNKD will never risk bankruptcy, especially considering earnings should pick up and contribute every day that goes on. Finally I think if this company was really in financial trouble they would sell for around $2-3 billion. (Yes they are worth more) but a distressed sale would force a low price. --- On your last point, I think a sale for $2-3bil is absolutely wishful thinking. 1) you have to have an interested party (consider the outside optics of MNKD when assessing this) and 2) you'd have to have an interested party willing to pay a 150-200% premium over current market value (consider the optics for this other companies shareholders when assessing this) and lastly but most importantly 3) Al has no leverage whatsoever (if you could have negative leverage, that would be our situation) when drafting a deal - there's also 4)5)6)7) & etc^10) why a buyout is out of the question at this point, but at the risk of firing up the "faith" crowd, i'll leave it at that. I am not one of the people in the buyout corner, but I wanted to remark on the idea that the current PPS is reflective of the current market value. There are an extra ~120M shares in circulation right now. That is about a 25% artificial dilution between the listed and "real" market cap. Not to mention the high proportion of float that is short and actually driving the PPS depression. In the case of a positive material event such as a buyout, many of these shares will be recalled and who knows to what heights the squeeze will reach. Current market value is just that -- current. Everyone knows it could easily pop 100% from current levels.
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 21:15:49 GMT -5
Post by jeremg on Nov 30, 2015 21:15:49 GMT -5
cathode of course we all know the PPS is "artificially" depressed BUT do you really think a BP considering buying MNKD would care to factor this into their price point? Is Al going to explain the manipulation to them during negotiations? How the current price they see on WS is "not fair"? As far as the price popping once a buyout is announced, the price would quickly reach the buyout price and then level out at that price as the selling pressure above would be massive and many would sell below when factoring in the time to closing and the possibility an agreement falls through.
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 21:17:45 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 30, 2015 21:17:45 GMT -5
It may jump again for good this time. I still wonder if Formulary Lookup had inadvertently entered start dates in November for coverages that were intended to start next month or January. A 10% jump in coverage is certainly possible for 2016. I would sure like to believe that. Though I have a hard time imagining that someone wouldn't have already uncovered some of the new 2016 plans with better coverage if they existed.
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Post by rrtzmd on Nov 30, 2015 21:26:35 GMT -5
My own question is -- even if MNKD manages to generate adequate financing for another one or two years, are there really any goal posts -- beyond survival -- to strive towards? Afrezza is in Sanofi's hands and MNKD can do nothing but complain about afrezza's treatment, so there's nothing to really work towards there. The only other option is offered by technospheres, about which MNKD seems unwilling to discuss any firm plans for actual drugs with actual partners. Given current financial constraints, spending money there appears to offer little immediate benefit. At this point, it seems like it would be rational if the company could be put into some sort of financial "hibernation" -- if such a thing exists -- and come back in a year or two to see how far afrezza has come, and then perhaps reinnervate it. Otherwise, it's just paying the parking meter.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 30, 2015 21:46:59 GMT -5
My own question is -- even if MNKD manages to generate adequate financing for another one or two years, are there really any goal posts -- beyond survival -- to strive towards? Afrezza is in Sanofi's hands and MNKD can do nothing but complain about afrezza's treatment, so there's nothing to really work towards there. The only other option is offered by technospheres, about which MNKD seems unwilling to discuss any firm plans for actual drugs with actual partners. Given current financial constraints, spending money there appears to offer little immediate benefit. At this point, it seems like it would be rational if the company could be put into some sort of financial "hibernation" -- if such a thing exists -- and come back in a year or two to see how far afrezza has come, and then perhaps reinnervate it. Otherwise, it's just paying the parking meter. The flaw in your logic is that they are unwilling to discuss anything publicly. The lack of discussion of something, such as potential benefit of spending money on TS, cannot therefore lead to the deduction that it does not exist. They did put everything in hibernation before, so presumably they would do it again if finances dictated. I would sure like to hear more about burn rate and timelines for TS. Even if it's not ideal going into a negotiation, I think it's time for MNKD to put a stake in the ground and say they plan on having a partner for the first TS drug candidate by _____ and then simply taking the best offer they get by then.
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 21:49:54 GMT -5
Post by cathode on Nov 30, 2015 21:49:54 GMT -5
cathode of course we all know the PPS is "artificially" depressed BUT do you really think a BP considering buying MNKD would care to factor this into their price point? Is Al going to explain the manipulation to them during negotiations? How the current price they see on WS is "not fair"? As far as the price popping once a buyout is announced, the price would quickly reach the buyout price and then level out at that price as the selling pressure above would be massive and many would sell below when factoring in the time to closing and the possibility an agreement falls through. Would you consider the factors of a large(!) short interest in a potential multi-million or multi-billlion dollar investment you are making? Yes.
Neither you or I can predict the price action following such a material event. I guess I am guilty of claiming I could in my previous post. Still, $3B/450M = $6.67 per share. This does not seem out of reach if there is real short covering.
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Post by jeremg on Nov 30, 2015 21:57:04 GMT -5
cathode of course we all know the PPS is "artificially" depressed BUT do you really think a BP considering buying MNKD would care to factor this into their price point? Is Al going to explain the manipulation to them during negotiations? How the current price they see on WS is "not fair"? As far as the price popping once a buyout is announced, the price would quickly reach the buyout price and then level out at that price as the selling pressure above would be massive and many would sell below when factoring in the time to closing and the possibility an agreement falls through. Would you consider the factors of a large(!) short interest in a potential multi-million or multi-billlion dollar investment you are making? Yes. Neither you or I can predict the price action following such a material event. I guess I am guilty of claiming I could in my previous post. Still, $3B/450M = $6.67 per share. This does not seem out of reach if there is real short covering. Admittedly this number is visually pleasing to me and gets my dopamine rushing BUT I've given up on the buyout scenario long ago. I doubt we will ever find out what would happen with the short interest as a variable in this case, but I suspect* we would not see the mythical squeeze with the upper limit set by the offer price.
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Post by fedakd on Nov 30, 2015 22:12:31 GMT -5
Would you consider the factors of a large(!) short interest in a potential multi-million or multi-billlion dollar investment you are making? Yes. Neither you or I can predict the price action following such a material event. I guess I am guilty of claiming I could in my previous post. Still, $3B/450M = $6.67 per share. This does not seem out of reach if there is real short covering. Admittedly this number is visually pleasing to me and gets my dopamine rushing BUT I've given up on the buyout scenario long ago. I doubt we will ever find out what would happen with the short interest as a variable in this case, but I suspect* we would not see the mythical squeeze with the upper limit set by the offer price. Lol Al stated he wouldn't sell Afrezza for $3 billion. Without Al dropping his price or them meeting in the middle, there will never be a BO. As for the mythical squeeze.... If Afrezza were to land a TS partnership with $1B upfront + royalties...you'd see a mythical squeeze like you've never seen. ;-)
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 22:23:38 GMT -5
Post by jeremg on Nov 30, 2015 22:23:38 GMT -5
Admittedly this number is visually pleasing to me and gets my dopamine rushing BUT I've given up on the buyout scenario long ago. I doubt we will ever find out what would happen with the short interest as a variable in this case, but I suspect* we would not see the mythical squeeze with the upper limit set by the offer price. Lol Al stated he wouldn't sell Afrezza for $3 billion. Without Al dropping his price or them meeting in the middle, there will never be a BO. As for the mythical squeeze.... If Afrezza were to land a TS partnership with $1B upfront + royalties...you'd see a mythical squeeze like you've never seen. ;-) Al would be verifiably insane to not accept $3bil right now. I no longer think its a matter of Al dropping his price, I don't believe there is a buyer on the other end. As far as the mythical squeeze, that is a Big IF [$1B upfront + royalties].
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 30, 2015 22:27:46 GMT -5
Lol Al stated he wouldn't sell Afrezza for $3 billion. Without Al dropping his price or them meeting in the middle, there will never be a BO. As for the mythical squeeze.... If Afrezza were to land a TS partnership with $1B upfront + royalties...you'd see a mythical squeeze like you've never seen. ;-) Al would be verifiably insane to not accept $3bil right now. I no longer think its a matter of Al dropping his price, I don't believe there is a buyer on the other end. As far as the mythical squeeze, that is a Big IF [$1B upfront + royalties].
"What would Carl Icahn do?" Simple, sell off the Afrezza, maybe even the whole Danbury facility, or alternatively, break Afrezza interests and "other" Technosphere into two separate companies, like he did with ebay and paypal. You might think they are inseparable but after a split might be worth multiples more.
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 22:34:06 GMT -5
Post by jeremg on Nov 30, 2015 22:34:06 GMT -5
Al would be verifiably insane to not accept $3bil right now. I no longer think its a matter of Al dropping his price, I don't believe there is a buyer on the other end. As far as the mythical squeeze, that is a Big IF [$1B upfront + royalties].
"What would Carl Icahn do?" Simple, sell off the Afrezza, maybe even the whole Danbury facility, or alternatively, break Afrezza interests and "other" Technosphere into two separate companies, like he did with ebay and paypal. You might think they are inseparable but after a split might be worth multiples more. That would make a lot of sense considering where we currently are. I would gladly except even a paltry return from an Afrezza sale and then comfortably hold "MNKT - Mannkind Technologies" for a few years. I would be more comfortable knowing that this new outgrowth learned from the sins of MNKD and could survive comfortably until Technosphere is developed across multiple treatment areas.
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 22:49:51 GMT -5
jeremg likes this
Post by mssciguy on Nov 30, 2015 22:49:51 GMT -5
"What would Carl Icahn do?" Simple, sell off the Afrezza, maybe even the whole Danbury facility, or alternatively, break Afrezza interests and "other" Technosphere into two separate companies, like he did with ebay and paypal. You might think they are inseparable but after a split might be worth multiples more. That would make a lot of sense considering where we currently are. I would gladly except even a paltry return from an Afrezza sale and then comfortably hold "MNKT - Mannkind Technologies" for a few years. I would be more comfortable knowing that this new outgrowth learned from the sins of MNKD and could survive comfortably until Technosphere is developed across multiple treatment areas. Agree, the hedge fund hit piece authors have simplified MNKD into an Afrezza-only entity that is being sandbagged by SNY (maybe a little truth to that but there is so much more to the story, like study results, more studies, negotiation, coverage changes, and hopefully, "going viral"). They invariably completely ignore Technosphere's potential (although the radio silence from mgmt is deafening).
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Post by fedakd on Nov 30, 2015 22:52:46 GMT -5
Two words guys: Mannkind Technologies. www.mannkindtechnologies.comHome page of MNKD - doesn't even list 'Afrezza' They are going to sell off Afrezza and use the profits to restructure / advance the pipeline. Cash rich, great pipeline, and potential future partners. Sounds good to me!
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 30, 2015 22:53:48 GMT -5
cathode of course we all know the PPS is "artificially" depressed BUT do you really think a BP considering buying MNKD would care to factor this into their price point? Is Al going to explain the manipulation to them during negotiations? How the current price they see on WS is "not fair"? As far as the price popping once a buyout is announced, the price would quickly reach the buyout price and then level out at that price as the selling pressure above would be massive and many would sell below when factoring in the time to closing and the possibility an agreement falls through. Al does not need to explain anything to Sanofi, who knows that Wall Street's sentiment of MNKD pps is not fair and for two simple reasons:
- Sanofi has intentionally limited sales of Afrezza throughout their pilot/evaluation of Afrezza in the marketplace. They know that most of Wall Street is ignorant of this, although the 'tutes have a pretty good idea and are accumulating shares;
- Sanofi has by now modeled what the actual demand for Afrezza will be in the USA and what the sales trajectory will be once they let it out of the gate in a meaningful way.
Incidentally, Al knows all this as well. He is seeing the results he predicted and, in all likelihood, had to prove to Sanofi before they would finalize the deal. Most significant to me is Afrezza's impact on early diabetics, those whose pancreas is being damaged (and not helped by Metformin) but can still be repaired, in fact healed, for the most part. Remission, in other words. Sanofi (and other BPs) are not ignoring the early adopters like Sam, Eric and others. The data being studied by Bode and others is significant because the early- and pre-diabetics market is 9x larger than T1 & T2 patients currently on insulin, according to Sanofi from a report they presented in 2014.
Al has made these two remarks (paraphrased):
- Afrezza could become the biggest blockbuster in history, and;
- MNKD shareholders will be very happy with Sanofi as a partner.
I happen to believe that Al Mann will be proven correct and that many bashers will owe him an apology. I also believe that Sanofi will meet Al's asking price for the acquisition of all rights and patents to Afrezza. So many got into this company because of the science. The science hasn't changed simply because Wall Street doesn't believe or understand it. Once the results are REALLY published, investors will finally get why institutions have been quietly accumulating shares of MNKD. Same with those retailers who have confidence in their own research.
If Al's price is anywhere as low as most of the guesses that I've read being posted, Sanofi would make a fortune by acquiring Afrezza. They'll make a fortune at Al's price, which will be higher than most guestimates.
This isn't wishful thinking. I am certain at this point that this is what will happen. Therefore, like those institutions, I continue to accumulate MNKD stock. I simply don't think Mann would give Sanofi more than one year to run Afrezza through its paces with the endos so that they can make their decision on price. Afrezza launched the first week of February, so Sanofi has had ten months to study the results from that select group of endocrinologists they targeted (which they told us at CC's) for the express purpose of evaluating Afrezza (which they have only eluded to). These paltry sales levels will come to an end by February, IMO.
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8-K
Nov 30, 2015 23:04:07 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by bradleysbest on Nov 30, 2015 23:04:07 GMT -5
I hope you are right!
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