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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 28, 2015 20:30:35 GMT -5
rockstarrick that's just it, no one can or would dispute "how afrezza has literally changed the lives of everybody using it", but this has absolutely nothing to do with current issues/obstacles. Not even AF and his cronies are claiming Afrezza doesn't work; so let me try and understand your view, you believe that Afrezza works SO well that if all else fails, it'll sell itself because (once again) it is SO good? Well I have disappointing news for you, Afrezza would have been selling like hot cakes if this were the case, instead we see <600nRx/week (and this is despite the concerted effort you actually believe SNY is/has made). So given the fact that despite how great Afrezza works it has not been able to sell itself (even with SNY's supposed arduous effort), how can you continue to hang your hat on the "Afrezza has literally changed the lives of everybody using it" rack as an optimistic "if all else fails" fallback? So what do we disagree on? You are wholly focused on the non-investment side of the equation (Afrezza's efficacy) but Afrezza is merely a drug, it NEEDS a company to commercialize it, to negotiate its insurance coverage, to run ongoing safety studies etc-etc-etc., that company NEEDS a competent management team to execute AND investors/financing to supply money for operation. This is about so much more than Afrezza, yet you have decided Afrezza (a product) will make up for every other aspect of this [unbalanced] equation because it works SO WELL. I think you are a genuine person judging by your thoughts, so I wish you luck in your pursuits, but I believe your method and investment rationale in this case is deeply flawed. No, as I stated in an earlier post, I believe Sanofi is test driving afrezza to see if it works as well as Al believes. I also believe the 65/35 split was a temporary agreement for the length of the test drive, hopefully 2016, very likely 2017. And most of all, I believe afrezza works too good for Sanofi to let it fail, especially without a full DTC marketing campaign. Sanofi would be known as the Company that killed afrezza, that's not happening IMO. We don't have long to wait, things will either get worse, or things will get better, they won't stay the way they are forever. As Stevil said, nobody knows what may be going on behind closed doors, so literally anything is possible. Also, it's not just the patients using afrezza, it's also the select group of Physicians hand picked by Sanofi that are adjudicating afrezzas performance, every 3 months these Physicians are seeing A1c #'s never seen before in the history of the treatment or diabetes. These are the things that control my sentiment. Sanofi will not let afrezza fail, and Sanofi will not lose afrezza IMO.
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Post by bill on Nov 28, 2015 20:36:58 GMT -5
rockstarrick that's just it, no one can or would dispute "how afrezza has literally changed the lives of everybody using it", but this has absolutely nothing to do with current issues/obstacles. Not even AF and his cronies are claiming Afrezza doesn't work; so let me try and understand your view, you believe that Afrezza works SO well that if all else fails, it'll sell itself because (once again) it is SO good? Well I have disappointing news for you, Afrezza would have been selling like hot cakes if this were the case, instead we see <600nRx/week (and this is despite the concerted effort you actually believe SNY is/has made). So given the fact that despite how great Afrezza works it has not been able to sell itself (even with SNY's supposed arduous effort), how can you continue to hang your hat on the "Afrezza has literally changed the lives of everybody using it" rack as an optimistic "if all else fails" fallback? So what do we disagree on? You are wholly focused on the non-investment side of the equation (Afrezza's efficacy) but Afrezza is merely a drug, it NEEDS a company to commercialize it, to negotiate its insurance coverage, to run ongoing safety studies etc-etc-etc., that company NEEDS a competent management team to execute AND investors/financing to supply money for operation. This is about so much more than Afrezza, yet you have decided Afrezza (a product) will make up for every other aspect of this [unbalanced] equation because it works SO WELL. I think you are a genuine person judging by your thoughts, so I wish you luck in your pursuits, but I believe your method and investment rationale in this case is deeply flawed. No, as I stated in an earlier post, I believe Sanofi is test driving afrezza to see if it works as well as Al believes. I also believe the 65/35 split was a temporary agreement for the length of the test drive, hopefully 2016, very likely 2017. And most of all, I believe afrezza works too good for Sanofi to let it fail, especially without a full DTC marketing campaign. Sanofi would be known as the Company that killed afrezza, that's not happening IMO. We don't have long to wait, things will either get worse, or things will get better, they won't stay the way they are forever. As Stevil said, nobody knows what may be going on behind closed doors, so literally anything is possible. Also, it's not just the patients using afrezza, it's also the select group of Physicians hand picked by Sanofi that are adjudicating afrezzas performance, every 3 months these Physicians are seeing A1c #'s never seen before in the history of the treatment or diabetes. These are the things that control my sentiment. Sanofi will not let afrezza fail, and Sanofi will not lose afrezza IMO. I agree, but that doesn't mean that SNY won't be perfectly happy watching MNKD's financial situation deteriorate. They might even be cheering from the sidelines. It seems like everyone agrees that Afrezza will be a success. What we're uncertain about in the extreme is whether MNKD will flourish or die while that's happening.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 28, 2015 20:37:08 GMT -5
However it is my prediction that this policy is about to change and we will soon get some answers to the many questions and theories proffered on this board. Trend I am not disagreeing with you as I think management need to start being a bit more transparent or seriously risk another lawsuit from shareholders, but I am curious as to why you think this change will happen soon. Is it the dismissal of Hakan? or something else entirely. At any rate a see a real lynching mob at the annual shareholders meeting, even if that is a few months away, unless the situation does not change between now and then.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2015 20:38:42 GMT -5
AF and cronies continually compare Afrezza with Exubra, that gives us a clue as to their motivation. Afrezza sales are disappointing, however, month-over-month sales indicate respectable growth. This growth will only increase over time; that is the factor to keep your eyes on.
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Post by bill on Nov 28, 2015 20:46:37 GMT -5
AF and cronies continually compare Afrezza with Exubra, that gives us a clue as to their motivation. Afrezza sales are disappointing, however, month-over-month sales indicate respectable growth. This growth will only increase over time; that is the factor to keep your eyes on. I think we need a way to distinguish between Afrezza success and MNKD success. We keep mixing them together. As I said previously almost everyone feels comfortable that Afrezza will succeed, one way or another. It's just too good to go away. What's confusing us all is whether MNKD can find a way forward that will let them take advantage of that success no matter when it occurs; 2016, 2017, or later. Right now all we know is that they only secured about 1/3 of the funding to persist into 2017. They also removed Hakan as CEO, installed Al as interim CEO, and then retained Hakan until July 2017. Everytime we think we're finishing the last chapter in the novel, the author tells us that a new book will be coming out "real soon."
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 28, 2015 20:53:21 GMT -5
We don't have long to wait, things will either get worse, or things will get better, they won't stay the way they are forever. Yes, as it is things, it would seem, could not get any worse, but actually they can. Things could get a lot worse yet and management might still choose to say very little. As per the agreement Sanofi is not supposed to introduce Afrezza in Europe until sometime in 2016, but we do not know exactly when. Japan in not coming until the following year. If Jeremg is right, and things are just what they look, then, as I have been saying, this could be as good as it gets for another 12 to 18 months.
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Post by fedakd on Nov 28, 2015 20:56:34 GMT -5
If this is as good as it gets management signed a deal with the devil.
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Post by doodyfree on Nov 28, 2015 20:58:27 GMT -5
AF and cronies continually compare Afrezza with Exubra, that gives us a clue as to their motivation. Afrezza sales are disappointing, however, month-over-month sales indicate respectable growth. This growth will only increase over time; that is the factor to keep your eyes on. I think we need a way to distinguish between Afrezza success and MNKD success. We keep mixing them together. As I said previously almost everyone feels comfortable that Afrezza will succeed, one way or another. It's just too good to go away. What's confusing us all is whether MNKD can find a way forward that will let them take advantage of that success no matter when it occurs; 2016, 2017, or later. Right now all we know is that they only secured about 1/3 of the funding to persist into 2017. They also removed Hakan as CEO, installed Al as interim CEO, and then retained Hakan until July 2017. Everytime we think we're finishing the last chapter in the novel, the author tells us that a new book will be coming out "real soon." This is completely false, they are funded through 2016. I'm being generous here and assume its going to be 35Mil + a quarter. I'm also going to assume that Afrezza contribute zero, which is not true. - 1Q TASE - 1Q Mann group - 1Q ATM, which was likely exercised when there's 40Million shares traded on 11/12 - 1Q Cash, 25M is restricted. But please remember that the requirement is they have the cash at the end of the quarter (read their statements). Which means they can use the cash through out the quarter and figure something out by the end of the year!!! - Tons of shares if they want to dilute further. Please stop with the 3 - 6 months of financing BS.
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Post by jeremg on Nov 28, 2015 20:58:32 GMT -5
Interesting discussion. Here's my different point of view... Suppose that the primary script blocker is price. Too high a price inhibits tier 2 pricing and exacerbates restrictions. If SNY now chooses to price Afrezza only slightly above injectables then perhaps tier 2 coverage will ensue and restrictions removed. Maybe SNY deliberately priced it high when a lower price earlier in the year wouldn't get tier 2 coverage. MNKD might have even endorsed that approach. i think it's just as likely that the flat scripts has been primarily driven by price as any other explanation. if true, then we may see a renegotiated price concurrent with tier 2 pricing and fewer restrictions now that there is more real world positive experience for SNY and insurers to draw on. Bill, I think Price/Insurance coverage are two prominent reasons and price undoubtedly is negatively correlated with insurance coverage in this case. My main contention point with all this discussion about "why" is whether the "why" should even matter to us, SNY needs and has a contractual obligation to take care of the "why"s, this is why MNKD partnered with them and gave up 65% of Afrezza revenue. The only "why" which I am now concerned with is "why hasn't SNY taken care of these obstacles?" and "why hasn't MNKD taken steps to protect shareholder value in the meantime". At the very least come out and explain these obstacles in a mature transparent way to investors, instead we've heard blame on the "shorts" and "manipulation" while the keystone issue is [lack of] Afrezza traction/sales. The buck stops with management and ultimately even SNY's actions (for better or worse) are the responsibility of management as these actions [or lack thereof] have destroyed shareholder value and MNKD-management signed the contract after-all.
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Post by bill on Nov 28, 2015 21:00:43 GMT -5
We don't have long to wait, things will either get worse, or things will get better, they won't stay the way they are forever. Yes, as it is things, it would seem, could not get any worse, but actually they can. Things could get a lot worse yet and management might still choose to say very little. As per the agreement Sanofi is not supposed to introduce Afrezza in Europe until sometime in 2016, but we do not know exactly when. Japan in not coming until the following year. If Jeremg is right, and things are just what they look, then, as I have been saying, this could be as good as it gets for another 12 to 18 months. I've read the partnership agreement pretty thoroughly, and I don't recall seeing anything about Europe or Asia launch timelines. Can you provide a reference?
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 28, 2015 21:05:14 GMT -5
AF and cronies continually compare Afrezza with Exubra, that gives us a clue as to their motivation. Afrezza sales are disappointing, however, month-over-month sales indicate respectable growth. This growth will only increase over time; that is the factor to keep your eyes on. I think we need a way to distinguish between Afrezza success and MNKD success. We keep mixing them together. As I said previously almost everyone feels comfortable that Afrezza will succeed, one way or another. It's just too good to go away. What's confusing us all is whether MNKD can find a way forward that will let them take advantage of that success no matter when it occurs; 2016, 2017, or later. Right now all we know is that they only secured about 1/3 of the funding to persist into 2017. They also removed Hakan as CEO, installed Al as interim CEO, and then retained Hakan until July 2017. Everytime we think we're finishing the last chapter in the novel, the author tells us that a new book will be coming out "real soon." I'm not sure "almost everyone feels comfortable" that Afrezza will succeed. In fact there are short interests representing 125 million shares who feel just the opposite. My own opinion is that Afrezza may succeed or may not succeed. I'm hoping that it will succeed, but 600 scripts a week means it is failing in the market place right now and we have seen very little to indicate that things are getting better. Most doctors either dont know about it or are afraid of the product and most interested patients can't afford it. The are a lot of products that came to market that were great ideas that failed for a multitude of reasons, I hope Afrezza isn't one of those. Trend
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Post by mnkdfann on Nov 28, 2015 21:08:55 GMT -5
"There are a lot of products that came to market that were great ideas that failed for a multitude of reasons"
I'm still rooting for Betamax!
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 28, 2015 21:12:01 GMT -5
... and "why hasn't MNKD taken steps to protect shareholder value in the meantime". At the very least come out and explain these obstacles in a mature transparent way to investors, instead we've heard blame on the "shorts" and "manipulation" while the keystone issue is [lack of] Afrezza traction/sales. The buck stops with management and ultimately even SNY's actions (for better or worse) are the responsibility of management as these actions [or lack thereof] have destroyed shareholder value and MNKD-management signed the contract after-all. I could not agree more. Actually one could easily make the argument that things have gone pretty wrong on any plans Mannkind and Sanofi might have had. If this is the case, to assert that this is all part of the plan is absolutely ridiculous. I do not have all the answers. None of us do, but at the very least management is guilty of allowing things to get to this point without ever seriously trying to defend the sp or shareholder value. It could be that they have a perfectly legit reason for this, but the longer time passes and the lower the sp goes, the least clear it it that they do.
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 28, 2015 21:13:28 GMT -5
No, as I stated in an earlier post, I believe Sanofi is test driving afrezza to see if it works as well as Al believes. I also believe the 65/35 split was a temporary agreement for the length of the test drive, hopefully 2016, very likely 2017. Rockstarrick, Do you have anything concrete to back up ridiculous speculation that you put forth on this board? Did you learn your trade on the YMB? Utter nonsense Trend
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Post by bill on Nov 28, 2015 21:14:51 GMT -5
Interesting discussion. Here's my different point of view... Suppose that the primary script blocker is price. Too high a price inhibits tier 2 pricing and exacerbates restrictions. If SNY now chooses to price Afrezza only slightly above injectables then perhaps tier 2 coverage will ensue and restrictions removed. Maybe SNY deliberately priced it high when a lower price earlier in the year wouldn't get tier 2 coverage. MNKD might have even endorsed that approach. i think it's just as likely that the flat scripts has been primarily driven by price as any other explanation. if true, then we may see a renegotiated price concurrent with tier 2 pricing and fewer restrictions now that there is more real world positive experience for SNY and insurers to draw on. Bill, I think Price/Insurance coverage are two prominent reasons and price undoubtedly is negatively correlated with insurance coverage in this case. My main contention point with all this discussion about "why" is whether the "why" should even matter to us, SNY needs and has a contractual obligation to take care of the "why"s, this is why MNKD partnered with them and gave up 65% of Afrezza revenue. The only "why" which I am now concerned with is "why hasn't SNY taken care of these obstacles?" and "why hasn't MNKD taken steps to protect shareholder value in the meantime". At the very least come out and explain these obstacles in a mature transparent way to investors, instead we've heard blame on the "shorts" and "manipulation" while the keystone issue is [lack of] Afrezza traction/sales. The buck stops with management and ultimately even SNY's actions (for better or worse) are the responsibility of management as these actions [or lack thereof] have destroyed shareholder value and MNKD-management signed the contract after-all. Let me take a crack at your two "why's." Why hasn't SNY taken care of these obstacles? One reply could be that they are taking care of the obstacles; spirometers, DTC advertising, insurance coverage etc. What's bothering us that we don't have any hard data to substantiate whether obstacles have or have not been removed, or how far along SNY is in removing them. MNKD should know, but no one's sharing, i.e., no transparency. Why hasn't MNKD taken steps to protect shareholder value in the meantime? I like that question, because Al Mann has more invested as a shareholder than all of us combined, but it hasn't been until recently that he's taken an active interest in what's happened. I'd like to think that he wasn't overly disturbed by what was happening based on the what he could observe, and what he was being told by Hakan, et al. I suspect though that conversations were had during the recent board meeting that caused Al to decide that the best way for him to preserve his shareholder value was to replace Hakan as CEO. Bad news that Al had to do that, but good news that he did once he realized he needed to get involved. What none of us know is what the proximate cause was for Hakan being removed, or what options Al will be pursuing to maximize his shareholder value. At this point, I guess there's no one I'd rather have as CEO than the "Mann" who has the most to gain or lose. Whatever the situation, I suspect we'll have Al's full attention for the next few weeks or months.
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