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Post by fedakd on Nov 27, 2015 23:26:43 GMT -5
Guys, I've been hearing things on twitter / cafepharma over the last few months about a "pilot program" for Afrezza. See here: cafepharma.com/boards/threads/does-sanofi-rank-sales-people-selling-afrezza.584319/Based on the the Nrx and Trx numbers we've been seeing (which have been strangely constant), is it possible that this drug really hasn't even been launched on what would be considered a full-scale launch for a company. I mean, the consistency in scripts is just plain weird. It's as if Sanofi hasn't even hit the gas pedal yet. Could the last 12 months simply have been a pilot program as referred to in the thread above? Where Sanofi effectively took Afrezza for a test-drive? Could be one of the reasons for the confidential treatment order. Just a thought! |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 28, 2015 0:41:59 GMT -5
Yes, I guess it could be. It could be that Sanofi was always interested in purchasing Afrezza, it could be that having made and insufficient offer and unable to decide if the asking price was worth it they decided to sign an agreement for a test ride, as you call it, it could be that having seen the results but also the difficulties of bringing Afrezza to market, seller and buyer have finally come to amenable terms. I guess this could explain many of the really difficult things to understand that have happen since approval, many of which make very little sense under most scenarios. Unfortunately it could also be that this is as good as it gets, that Al Mann grossly miscalculated the interest for this drug, that both Sanofi and Mannkind really thought Afrezza would have a wide acceptance off the gate. That Mannkind's finances are so strained that they find themselves unable to really react and at the mercy of the situation. Information is non existent and developments hardly match what would be reasonably expected, so either Mannkind plans to eventually surprise us with amazing news, or they really are in as much trouble as sometimes they seems to be. Take your pick. All I can say is that I deeply thank all those that have tried Afrezza and have made public their experiences and results. If it was not for them we simply would know nothing. It is because of them that I believe Afrezza truly works better than anything else, making it in a class of its own. Without access to the information they have provided I would have never hang around for this long. On the other hand, I deeply resent management and the games they have played with us investors, giving us, for example, deceiving answers to questions that giving the circumstances were fairly straightforward. In many ways not answering or just answering with a "no comment" would have been no less frustrating, but a lot more honest. Management has, in retrospect, clearly decived investors and put them in a extremely difficult situation, one that requires an amount of faith that one would normally reserve for religious matters.
So yeah, it could be, it also could be that this is as good as it gets. Take your pick.
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Post by jeremg on Nov 28, 2015 1:07:29 GMT -5
@eveningoftheday, very well said. As for which of your scenarios I think is in line with reality, well... when I hear hoofbeats, I think horses not zebras. Others seem to be hallucinating Zebras as "hope" has transcended into full blown fanaticism, I'm resigned to keep my stance as a realist. SNY in this matter is guilty until proven innocent based on what I've seen thus far, Afrezza's success will set them free while a continuation down this same road will prove their ill-intent beyond a reasonable doubt, ultimately MNKD's fate lies in the balance.
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Post by nylefty on Nov 28, 2015 1:12:35 GMT -5
I deeply resent management and the games they have played with us investors, giving us, for example, deceiving answers to questions that giving the circumstances were fairly straightforward. In many ways not answering or just answering with a "no comment" would have been no less frustrating, but a lot more honest. Management has, in retrospect, clearly decived investors and put them in a extremely difficult situation, one that requires an amount of faith that one would normally reserve for religious matters. You're not the first to accuse management of "deceit" and "lies," but I don't remember seeing any examples. Care to cite some? |
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Post by jeremg on Nov 28, 2015 1:18:22 GMT -5
You're not the first to accuse MannKind management of "deceit" and "lies," but I don't remember seeing any examples. Care to cite some? If you go back through -------- posts/threads you will see 2 or 3 prime examples of times he emailed Matt with a question or concern hoping to clear things up, Matt each and everytime sent back an ambiguous misleading response which convinced -------- (bless his heart) that the issue was resolved satisfactorily. The latest was having to do with the dilutive TASE financing scheme in which Matt parsed words and wrote back something along the lines of "no, listing on the TASE does not increase the number of shares and lead to dilution". I'm sure if you choose to evaluate this example reasonably (as a skeptic), you could see Matt intended to give the answer which the questioner was looking for knowing perfectly well this was misleading and out of the context of the question. Another prime example - $2.08 - don't really need to add anything else to this one. Edit: I removed the OPs name as to not cause trouble with that individual as he likes to get into it, I'm sure you can look back and find his posts if he hasn't deleted them. |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 28, 2015 1:25:17 GMT -5
You're not the first to accuse management of "deceit" and "lies," but I don't remember seeing any examples. Care to cite some? Nylefty, I don't think I have gone as far as accusing management of lying to us. Deceit on the other hand is relatively easy to observe in many of the exchanges that they have had with shareholders. Examples of this abound, and although they are open to interpretation, it is often clear that meanings and situations are twisted so as not to have to respond directly or as to justify a certain response. However, if Hakan's assertion that a deal was on the works and that we would see it by years end or first quarter on next year does not come to pass, you are going to have the clearest example of a lie that you could ask for. |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Nov 28, 2015 1:33:01 GMT -5
If you go back through Kastanes posts/threads you will see 2 or 3 prime examples of times he emailed Matt with a question or concern hoping to clear things up, Matt each and everytime sent back an ambiguous misleading response which convinced Kastanes (bless his heart) that the issue was resolved satisfactorily. The latest was having to do with the dilutive TASE financing scheme in which Matt parsed words and wrote back something along the lines of "no, listing on the TASE does not increase the number of shares and lead to dilution". I'm sure if you choose to evaluate this example reasonably (as a skeptic), you could see Matt intended to give the answer which the questioner was looking for knowing perfectly well this was misleading and out of the context of the question. I too wrote to Matt with a similar question about the TASE listing which, apparently was poorly formulated enough, as some posters kindly pointed out, but was clear enough in the context and intended meaning. Matt simply took advantage of the loop to answer with a fairly deceitful answer, one that I believe has ended up turning many posters, including me, from our previous belief that we were being dealt with in a honest straightforward manner. |
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Post by BlueCat on Nov 28, 2015 2:01:34 GMT -5
Guys, I've been hearing things on twitter / cafepharma over the last few months about a "pilot program" for Afrezza. See here: cafepharma.com/boards/threads/does-sanofi-rank-sales-people-selling-afrezza.584319/Based on the the Nrx and Trx numbers we've been seeing (which have been strangely constant), is it possible that this drug really hasn't even been launched on what would be considered a full-scale launch for a company. I mean, the consistency in scripts is just plain weird. It's as if Sanofi hasn't even hit the gas pedal yet. Could the last 12 months simply have been a pilot program as referred to in the thread above? Where Sanofi effectively took Afrezza for a test-drive? Could be one of the reasons for the confidential treatment order. Just a thought! Even if the slow ramp had been planned and assumed and thus part of a confidential treatment order, from the MNKD mgt comments, clearly what we are seeing was not what was expected or agreed. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2015 8:37:24 GMT -5
I have ridden shares down since approval because Afrezza has the potential to be a blockbuster at some point. With regards to Matt's email replies, I have never interpreted his responses as deceitful or misleading. I have listened to Matt on several calls and am impressed with his knowledge, however, I feel Wall Street has done everything possible to undermine MannKind at every opportunity. The financial situation is precarious, but I find it unlikely Alfred Mann will give up on MannKind.
For that reason I will be holding indefinitely.
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 28, 2015 9:02:36 GMT -5
I have ridden shares down since approval because Afrezza has the potential to be a blockbuster at some point. With regards to Matt's email replies, I have never interpreted his responses as deceitful or misleading. I have listened to Matt on several calls and am impressed with his knowledge, however, I feel Wall Street has done everything possible to undermine MannKind at every opportunity. The financial situation is precarious, but I find it unlikely Alfred Mann will give up on MannKind. For that reason I will be holding indefinitely. Other companies are in hot pursuit of particle inhalation technologies which will rival or be superior to Technosphere. Seriously, I am now a captive investor, possibly adrift in Sunk Cost Fallacy, but as the sole proprietor of a very small business, I am horrified with the recent stock sale at just a fraction of the valuation a few months ago. The new CEO must purge the company of any residual country club mentality. There are no guarantees of survival. There is also plenty of evidence of big money behind new "disruptive" particle technologies, both for inhalation and for ingestion... the wolf is always at the door and at this point, I can smell it's breath. Do you like vintage Star Trek? What would I respectfully tell Matt or the next CEO? The quote that would apply here, is, "Captain, time is of the essence." |
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Post by kbrion77 on Nov 28, 2015 9:18:55 GMT -5
I have ridden shares down since approval because Afrezza has the potential to be a blockbuster at some point. With regards to Matt's email replies, I have never interpreted his responses as deceitful or misleading. I have listened to Matt on several calls and am impressed with his knowledge, however, I feel Wall Street has done everything possible to undermine MannKind at every opportunity. The financial situation is precarious, but I find it unlikely Alfred Mann will give up on MannKind. For that reason I will be holding indefinitely. I still think Mannkind management is following their initial road map that began when they signed the licensing agreement in 2014. Yes I'm sure there are a few things here and there that aren't going perfectly as planned but they had to have known and forecasted Afrezza profitability and their cash reserves for near and long term. I really am hoping with those forecasts they were super conservative and took into account the various roadblocks they would encounter such as main obstacles of Insurance coverage and Spiro tests. I'm still a bit concerned though where I believe Hakan stated during Q2 I think that scripts would ramp up later in the year, not sure if there was a snag with something. This company is certainly in battle mode and right now they are doing everything they can to survive and for the sake of helping millions of people world wide with medical issues I know they will. Again Mannkind and Sanofi are sitting on a diabetes drug that has people saying the following below: "Before Diabetes pushed my daily agenda, making life hard for me and my family. Now T1D is just an afterthought. Thank you." You don't walk away from a drug that produces a result like that, you battle and fight against any type of element to get it in the hands of millions of people. |
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Post by rak5555 on Nov 28, 2015 10:25:19 GMT -5
My favorite example of deceit was when management announced that the FDA requested that they lower the age for juvenile trials to 4 years old (I think MNKD had proposed 8). At the time this was postured as a vote of confidence from the FDA as for as safety. Then we find out months later that the protocol for all juvenile trials is 4 yrs old. I wish I had sold then.
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Post by kc on Nov 28, 2015 12:43:30 GMT -5
I have ridden shares down since approval because Afrezza has the potential to be a blockbuster at some point. With regards to Matt's email replies, I have never interpreted his responses as deceitful or misleading. I have listened to Matt on several calls and am impressed with his knowledge, however, I feel Wall Street has done everything possible to undermine MannKind at every opportunity. The financial situation is precarious, but I find it unlikely Alfred Mann will give up on MannKind. For that reason I will be holding indefinitely. DITTO. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2015 13:24:08 GMT -5
EOTD: I don't buy for a second these accusations/speculations you've leveled against Matt and MNKD. GLTY.
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Post by bloodrootfc on Nov 28, 2015 13:28:32 GMT -5
EOTD: I don't buy for a second these accusations/speculations you've leveled against Matt and MNKD. GLTY. There is nothing to buy. Except the dang company. Buy what? Who wants to get paid? I'll take $10 per share and consider it a generous offer. |
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