FUD and Moderating

[mnholdem]

Fear, Uncertainty, Despair (FUD)

   - aka The Joys of Moderating on a Down Day

FUD

• fear, uncertainty and doubt, usually evoked intentionally in order to put a competitor at a disadvantage.
• Wikipedia – “FUD is generally a strategic attempt to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information. An individual firm, for example, might use FUD to invite unfavorable opinions and speculation about a competitor's product.”

FEAR

• An unpleasant emotion caused by the belief that someone or something is dangerous, likely to cause pain, or a threat; and
• A feeling of anxiety concerning the outcome of something or the safety and well-being of someone.

• Synonyms: alarm, panic, agitation, trepidation, dread, consternation, dismay, distress; anxiety, worry, angst, unease, uneasiness, apprehension, apprehensiveness, nervousness, nerves, perturbation, foreboding.

UNCERTAINTY

• Something that is uncertain or that causes one to feel uncertain.

• Synonyms: doubt, qualm, misgiving, apprehension, quandary, reservation, scruple, second thought, query, question, question mark, suspicion.

DESPAIR

• The complete loss or absence of hope.

• Synonyms: hopelessness, disheartenment, discouragement, desperation, distress, anguish, unhappiness.

---

Most companies keep certain information confidential. Some companies go to extraordinary lengths to ensure that information is not made public, even to the extent of using code names for certain marketing plans, in order to keep vital information out of the hands of competitors.

Unfortunately, when investors are left in the dark, the situation can present opportunities for direct competitors (and others who are vested against an entity) to sow fear, uncertainty and despair, aka FUD. The greatest manipulators are those who operate by employing emotional manipulation against others, often by convincing them that something exists when it doesn’t and thereby cause a shareholder to act on an irrational fear to make an irrational decision.

It is not surprising that professionals are employed to convince Wall Street KOLs that the continued silence from MannKind/Sanofi regarding Afrezza is unusual and a bad omen, even when those who employ these FUDsters know that silence regarding marketing strategies is commonplace in the industry. FUDsters seek to use uncertainty to spark fears in shareholders, and they want that the fear to become catching and for others to begin voicing irrational fears, thereby doing the FUDster's jobs for them. If the FUD they spread becomes contagious, the end result can be despair among shareholders. This is where some FUDsters will take the extra step of posting that they have sold their shares to keep from losing everything. However, even after they’ve claimed to “cut the cord” with the company, you’ll notice that they stick around on discussion boards to encourage others to do the same.

So how does one recognize emotional manipulation? I am thinking of publishing a piece to better address this topic but, for now, I can offer that the biggest tip-off is that they tend to first minimize or put down any positive viewpoint (i.e. using the word “hopium” to ridicule). Whether professional or amateur, a FUDster typically tells you what should or should not believe, but rarely if ever offer any facts to back it up. The irony here is that a FUDster cannot see in the darkness any better than you can. But they are perfectly content to just sidle up to you in the “darkness” in order to tell you what dangers lay in wait for you. Fear of the unknown is a powerful tool for manipulation and coercion.

You may think, “I’ve done my DD. I think I can recognize FUD and emotional manipulation. But how can I protect myself from it?”

Think of it this way. You are familiar with the layout of the home/dwelling where you live, right? So if a power outage occurs, you are likely to be reasonably confident that you will find your way to that flashlight which you keep stored in drawer in your kitchen.

I think of due diligence as studying a sort of floor plan. Even though I am in the dark as much as every other shareholder, with respect to Sanofi’s marketing plans for Afrezza and MannKind’s progress on development of their other drug candidates, I have studied enough of the drug Afrezza and the company’s situation that I will not become panicky or paralyzed by fear.

I haven’t given in to despair because I am reasonably certain where the dangers lie and where they don’t.

I refuse to make fun of peoples’ fears, because I know that fear of losing hard-earned money is very, very real. What saddens me, in respects to the many posts I’m reading lately, is that without Sanofi or MannKind Corporation doing anything to shed light on the situation, the despair on ProBoards-MNKD may be spreading so fast that it has become impossible to sort out those who are professional “FUDsters” from those who are simply voicing their fears.

I hope you will understand the intent of my post.

I and several others volunteer our time to help moderate this board. We are receiving more and more reports of FUD and abusive posts, many rightfully so. The board is becoming increasingly difficult to manage and by ‘manage’ I do not mean ‘control’. Moderators primarily try to keep things civil and to keep out “FUDsters” – those individuals for whom it becomes apparent that their sole purpose for being here is to disseminate disinformation and spread FUD.

There seems to be little to celebrate with MNKD these days. But hope still remains for some, perhaps even many.

There is nothing wrong when members voice their own fears or their own hopes by posting on this forum, but members should be allowed to do so without fear of ridicule. Please don’t give in to name-calling or personal attacks against others, regardless of whether they are expressing fears or expressing continued hope.

During this company-imposed “blackout”, you may not see any reason for hope, but perhaps they do. Please try to be respectful of that. Of all the forums available for discussing MNKD as an investment, ProBoards-MNKD has established a reputation for being the place for investors to go for honest, respectful discussion, where you can state your opinion without being ridiculed and the place where investors are likely to find more facts and useful links to information related to investing in MannKind Corporation.

Thank you.

Good fortune all.

[silentknight]

Well said. I think there's room for all viewpoints but everyone should strive to be respectful of each one, even if we disagree. These are trying times for sure and this board at least gives me some comfort in knowing that I'm not alone in my frustration with the current state of affairs. I'm not fearful nor am I in despair or I'd take what little I could from my investment and move along. Uncertainty most assuredly is a word I would use to describe where we are as we see erosion in the stock almost daily that is difficult to watch.

I'll never tell anyone what to do with their money, and every investor should determine for themselves what to do with their shares. I've invested for many years and I can't remember a stock that has been so emotionally and financially trying. Afrezza is a powerful drug, unparalleled in its efficacy and delivery system. I think the potential that is has for diabetics and the medical field is what draws all of us to care so much. That is both good and bad. Emotional investment can be powerfully beneficial but it can also be devastatingly counter-productive. MNKD elicits both I believe.

As I've stated before. I may disagree with viewpoints, but I appreciate them nevertheless.

Good luck to all.

[suebeeee1]

Excellent, excellent post. These are emotionally trying times. Even after it had been ascertained that MNKD has enough money, people are easily falling prey to those trying to negate this once again.

NOTHING has happened to change any facts. If your DD told you that this stock was solid, then it is still solid. We all knew there would be tax selling this month. Many are taking advantage of that and yet we panic when told it is something else.

Deep breath. Not much reason to get out here and sell our shares to all the shorts that have been waiting in the wings for this very thing to happen.

[rey]

keyword: people are easily falling prey.

Don't watch the tape every hour by the hour. If this is your long-term investment and you have done your due diligence.
Then, fuggedaboutit.

[slugworth008]

Your efforts are appreciated MN as are the efforts of all the other people who maintain Proboards - and keep it running smoothly.

At this point - It seems there is zero left to say about SNY or MNKD - IMO. Amazingly enough we have arrived at this destination - for now.

Wait - eureka...I have it. There is something left to discuss...Now...where is that Ouija board. That should be an interesting thread

[LosingMyBullishness]

When there is something left to say about this stock it is what oneself has learnt from dealing with it.
I learnt that it should be part of my DD to look at the amount being shorted and take it seriously. These are not idiots and they have a lot of influence in the market. With a short rate of >40% there is so much risk in it for shorts that they take good care of the stock. I should have secured my heavy investment with some put-options instead of buying some call options. I had the idea that I had done so much DD and followed every bit of news and every article that I know more than the "stupid" shorts. May be. It simply does not matter at least short to mid term.
This is my very expensive take-away as a traditional buy-and hold investor: Buy puts if there is some shorting >10% on a significant position, never buy both call options and shares and when buying calls,  buy calls with a very distant expiration date.

Besides: My first post here. Hi to everyone and thanks for the valuable information and entertaining discussions.  

[dreamboatcruise]

LosingMyBullishness... I'll buy you a time machine if you go back and teach me that a year ago.

[pktrump]

Psychology is an important part of investing so they say. MNKD would be a good study.

Check out Zerohedge.com article "Your brain is Killing Your Returns".

I think we all (Long term longs) suffer from Confirmation Bias: we are on the look out for anything that confirms that AFZ will be successful. To combat this you need to look at the opposing view they say.
My problem is, every short argument I've read has been total subjective bullshit and the shorts never seem to debate the pharmokinetics or the current complication of RAAs (i.e death ) amongst a myriad of
other negative attributes. Maybe inaccurate on my part, I never felt that any of the shorts had stepped foot in a hospital or a dialysis center or a wound clinic, or had even an inkling of understanding
of medicine or diabetes.

But I'm sure the collapse of the pps makes the shorts and GS analysts feel special & talented at this point. But The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street/Social Media has
never been so apparent with any new therapy I've observed. Morality and reasonable are not words used on Wall Street.

I think to be long on MNKD at this point you have to be contrarian. The financial situation is tenuous, SNY is an unknown silent partner, MNKD mgt has been thrown in a dark room, and we are left with
nothing but dreams and subjectivity. This is no different than 12 months ago: silence fuels speculation and fuels the shorts. I don't know how MNKD and SNY can honestly get away with not communicating with the retail shareholders for such an extended period of time as the valuation has dropped over 80% in a year.

But if you are told you suck repeatedly quarter after quarter without any defense on part of MNKD or SNY mgt, you start to believe it, then you start to doubt, then fear, then panic, then capitulation and despair, and lastly despondency.

I think if we were to compare this board to two years ago it would be telling of where we are on this psychological grid. IMO, close to despondency.

May Al come out and speak and feed us some confidence and conviction to us despondent shareholders--- very soon.

[suebeeee1]

Since October, there have appeared a multitude of personalities who, while claiming to be long, are clearly nothing more than fear momgerers. A few just lurked until they could open up about their real reasons for coming here... Spreading FUD.

In the part few days it has become endemic as tax selling and the silence has become deafening. It is very easy to identify them as they think they are mixing in with everyone else who is a bit nervous right now. I know the moderators are working hard and don't want to block anyone who it's the latter, AND I suppose most, when blocked, will just reincarnated with a new personality.

I like our board with all of the different substantiated views but I also came here to escape from the paid and unpaid bashers. Thank you admins for the hard work you do. It seems your work just became far more difficult.

[robsacher]

Dec 8, 2015 13:55:09 GMT -5 mnholdem said:

Fear, Uncertainty, Despair (FUD)

   - aka The Joys of Moderating on a Down Day

FUD

• fear, uncertainty and doubt, usually evoked intentionally in order to put a competitor at a disadvantage.
• Wikipedia – “FUD is generally a strategic attempt to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information. An individual firm, for example, might use FUD to invite unfavorable opinions and speculation about a competitor's product.”

FEAR

• An unpleasant emotion caused by the belief that someone or something is dangerous, likely to cause pain, or a threat; and
• A feeling of anxiety concerning the outcome of something or the safety and well-being of someone.

• Synonyms: alarm, panic, agitation, trepidation, dread, consternation, dismay, distress; anxiety, worry, angst, unease, uneasiness, apprehension, apprehensiveness, nervousness, nerves, perturbation, foreboding.

UNCERTAINTY

• Something that is uncertain or that causes one to feel uncertain.

• Synonyms: doubt, qualm, misgiving, apprehension, quandary, reservation, scruple, second thought, query, question, question mark, suspicion.

DESPAIR

• The complete loss or absence of hope.

• Synonyms: hopelessness, disheartenment, discouragement, desperation, distress, anguish, unhappiness.

---

Most companies keep certain information confidential. Some companies go to extraordinary lengths to ensure that information is not made public, even to the extent of using code names for certain marketing plans, in order to keep vital information out of the hands of competitors.

Unfortunately, when investors are left in the dark, the situation can present opportunities for direct competitors (and others who are vested against an entity) to sow fear, uncertainty and despair, aka FUD. The greatest manipulators are those who operate by employing emotional manipulation against others, often by convincing them that something exists when it doesn’t and thereby cause a shareholder to act on an irrational fear to make an irrational decision.

It is not surprising that professionals are employed to convince Wall Street KOLs that the continued silence from MannKind/Sanofi regarding Afrezza is unusual and a bad omen, even when those who employ these FUDsters know that silence regarding marketing strategies is commonplace in the industry. FUDsters seek to use uncertainty to spark fears in shareholders, and they want that the fear to become catching and for others to begin voicing irrational fears, thereby doing the FUDster's jobs for them. If the FUD they spread becomes contagious, the end result can be despair among shareholders. This is where some FUDsters will take the extra step of posting that they have sold their shares to keep from losing everything. However, even after they’ve claimed to “cut the cord” with the company, you’ll notice that they stick around on discussion boards to encourage others to do the same.

So how does one recognize emotional manipulation? I am thinking of publishing a piece to better address this topic but, for now, I can offer that the biggest tip-off is that they tend to first minimize or put down any positive viewpoint (i.e. using the word “hopium” to ridicule). Whether professional or amateur, a FUDster typically tells you what should or should not believe, but rarely if ever offer any facts to back it up. The irony here is that a FUDster cannot see in the darkness any better than you can. But they are perfectly content to just sidle up to you in the “darkness” in order to tell you what dangers lay in wait for you. Fear of the unknown is a powerful tool for manipulation and coercion.

You may think, “I’ve done my DD. I think I can recognize FUD and emotional manipulation. But how can I protect myself from it?”

Think of it this way. You are familiar with the layout of the home/dwelling where you live, right? So if a power outage occurs, you are likely to be reasonably confident that you will find your way to that flashlight which you keep stored in drawer in your kitchen.

I think of due diligence as studying a sort of floor plan. Even though I am in the dark as much as every other shareholder, with respect to Sanofi’s marketing plans for Afrezza and MannKind’s progress on development of their other drug candidates, I have studied enough of the drug Afrezza and the company’s situation that I will not become panicky or paralyzed by fear.

I haven’t given in to despair because I am reasonably certain where the dangers lie and where they don’t.

I refuse to make fun of peoples’ fears, because I know that fear of losing hard-earned money is very, very real. What saddens me, in respects to the many posts I’m reading lately, is that without Sanofi or MannKind Corporation doing anything to shed light on the situation, the despair on ProBoards-MNKD may be spreading so fast that it has become impossible to sort out those who are professional “FUDsters” from those who are simply voicing their fears.

I hope you will understand the intent of my post.

I and several others volunteer our time to help moderate this board. We are receiving more and more reports of FUD and abusive posts, many rightfully so. The board is becoming increasingly difficult to manage and by ‘manage’ I do not mean ‘control’. Moderators primarily try to keep things civil and to keep out “FUDsters” – those individuals for whom it becomes apparent that their sole purpose for being here is to disseminate disinformation and spread FUD.

There seems to be little to celebrate with MNKD these days. But hope still remains for some, perhaps even many.

There is nothing wrong when members voice their own fears or their own hopes by posting on this forum, but members should be allowed to do so without fear of ridicule. Please don’t give in to name-calling or personal attacks against others, regardless of whether they are expressing fears or expressing continued hope.

During this company-imposed “blackout”, you may not see any reason for hope, but perhaps they do. Please try to be respectful of that. Of all the forums available for discussing MNKD as an investment, ProBoards-MNKD has established a reputation for being the place for investors to go for honest, respectful discussion, where you can state your opinion without being ridiculed and the place where investors are likely to find more facts and useful links to information related to investing in MannKind Corporation.

Thank you.

Good fortune all.

Thank you. Your writing is perfectly centered and I very much agree with your sentiment. If I may add one thing, I respectfully suggest that readers have no fear of using the block button which can be found by clicking on to the name of the person you want to block and then clicking onto the gear icon where readers can then find the block option.  In the years that I have been here, I never once used the block option. But, over the last several weeks, I have used it a number of times. I noticed an appreciable improvement in my experience here. I highly recommend using it. 

By the way, I have only blocked new people here. 

RS

[robsacher]

Dec 8, 2015 16:22:59 GMT -5 suebeeee1 said:

Excellent, excellent post. These are emotionally trying times. Even after it had been ascertained that MNKD has enough money, people are easily falling prey to those trying to negate this once again.

NOTHING has happened to change any facts. If your DD told you that this stock was solid, then it is still solid. We all knew there would be tax selling this month. Many are taking advantage of that and yet we panic when told it is something else.

Deep breath. Not much reason to get out here and sell our shares to all the shorts that have been waiting in the wings for this very thing to happen.

Agreed. Absolutely…

[Deleted]

Why Al Mann is successful:

F   Fearless    

U  Undeterred

D  Driven    

[mindovermatter]

Did this board go from stock discussion to a therapy support group for longs who are obsessed with FUD? Too bad Mannkind doesn't sell inhalable spines. Some on here are need of one. 

[silentknight]

I haven't blocked anyone and I don't expect I will. I've had my differing view points with posters here but I always welcome healthy debate. I've actually read some posts here and found myself changing some of my own positions and I find that helpful and healthy in keeping me grounded with everything going on.

I guess my tolerance for differing opinions is higher than some here, but in my opinion, I haven't seen a lot of people deliberately trying to instill panic. I've seen a lot of people express concern and voice their displeasure with how things are going and I share many of their viewpoints. There doesn't appear to be much of an appetite from some for opposing points of view. That's unfortunate. I enjoy the Yin to the Yang. There's not a poster on this board or any analyst in the financial field that will tell me what to do with my shares. I decide that based on my own DD and decision making process. In the immortal words of Rodney King...."Can't we all just get along?"

[mssciguy]

Dec 9, 2015 9:22:29 GMT -5 silentknight said:

I haven't blocked anyone and I don't expect I will. I've had my differing view points with posters here but I always welcome healthy debate. I've actually read some posts here and found myself changing some of my own positions and I find that helpful and healthy in keeping me grounded with everything going on.

I guess my tolerance for differing opinions is higher than some here, but in my opinion, I haven't seen a lot of people deliberately trying to instill panic. I've seen a lot of people express concern and voice their displeasure with how things are going and I share many of their viewpoints. There doesn't appear to be much of an appetite from some for opposing points of view. That's unfortunate. I enjoy the Yin to the Yang. There's not a poster on this board or any analyst in the financial field that will tell me what to do with my shares. I decide that based on my own DD and decision making process. In the immortal words of Rodney King...."Can't we all just get along?"

It's very interesting to watch reactions to something like price here, including my own.  At first, I could take my eyes off the screen, "How can this be happening??" -- but then some research about GSCO, Sigma X, dark pools, hedge funds eases the anxiety.  It's borderline organized crime, in the form of millions of lines of code at multiple locations over 15 different exchanges, much of it completely invisible to us.  And with the ongoing threat of a govt shutdown, don't expect any miracles from the SEC (but who knows, maybe they'll pick MNKD to make examples out of repeat offenders).

From everything that I can gather at this time, between now and 2017, the price is completely illusory.  Reflects perceived outcomes and we don't have any public information to confirm those intuitions.

But, I would hazard to guess that some information will leak about the pediatric trials, and also guess that it will be positive.  And furthermore that that political "science" biotech expert will attempt to spin it into FUD.