|
|
Post by bill on Jan 5, 2016 10:29:27 GMT -5
Putting on my rose colored glasses for a bit...
1. Assuming SNY terminated the agreement (which I believe is almost certainly the case), then MNKD's cash situation has greatly improved. They'll be able to book the $150 + $25 up-front and milestone payments, less what they owe from the loan facility.
2. Going forward MNKD will book 100% of any Afrezza profits until a new partnership is in place.
3. I believe they'll gain access to the completed CLAMP studies that SNY has withheld.
4. They'll gain control of Afrezza pricing.
5. They'll gain access to all the Afrezza patient data SNY has collected.
Overall, I think MNKD got the better part of the SNY / MNKD deal. After a year, they've got over $100 million in cash left from the partnership, a sound Afrezza production capability, a foothold in Afrezza sales, great real-world feedback, and some completed FDA studies.
Going forward, MNKD will need a new partnership but if you look at where they were a year ago and where they are now, it seems like they're in better shape now than a year ago.
|
|
|
|
Post by me on Jan 5, 2016 10:33:29 GMT -5
Putting on my rose colored glasses for a bit... 1. Assuming SNY terminated the agreement (which I believe is almost certainly the case), then MNKD's cash situation has greatly improved. They'll be able to book the $150 + $25 up-front and milestone payments, less what they owe from the loan facility. 2. Going forward MNKD will book 100% of any Afrezza profits until a new partnership is in place. 3. I believe they'll gain access to the completed CLAMP studies that SNY has withheld. 4. They'll gain control of Afrezza pricing. 5. They'll gain access to all the Afrezza patient data SNY has collected. Overall, I think MNKD got the better part of the SNY / MNKD deal. After a year, they've got over $100 million in cash left from the partnership, a sound Afrezza production capability, a foothold in Afrezza sales, great real-world feedback, and some completed FDA studies. Going forward, MNKD will need a new partnership but if you look at where they were a year ago and where they are now, it seems like they're in better shape now than a year ago. Re #1, "booking" the up-front and milestone payments means simply debiting liabilities and crediting revenues...it does nothing to their current cash position. It's unclear to me right now the impact of the termination on your remaining four points. |
|
|
|
Post by anderson on Jan 5, 2016 10:39:15 GMT -5
A friend of mine pointed out that the effective date for termination if it goes to the 6th month period is spelled out in the press release......July 4th 2016. Good to see Al still has a sense of humor.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2016 10:54:29 GMT -5
Putting on my rose colored glasses for a bit... 1. Assuming SNY terminated the agreement (which I believe is almost certainly the case), then MNKD's cash situation has greatly improved. They'll be able to book the $150 + $25 up-front and milestone payments, less what they owe from the loan facility. I still dont think this is the case2. Going forward MNKD will book 100% of any Afrezza profits until a new partnership is in place. Going forward as of today or in July when the partnerships finally comes to an end?3. I believe they'll gain access to the completed CLAMP studies that SNY has withheld. I thought these clamp studies were required by FDA post approval? Those results can do nothing but keep the drug going4. They'll gain control of Afrezza pricing. I agree5. They'll gain access to all the Afrezza patient data SNY has collected. I agree. Whats really strange is what was the purpose of the San Diego meeting especially with such good feedback? Was this a head fake move for defense against a possible law suit. Seems so odd to do that only to kill the partnership.Overall, I think MNKD got the better part of the SNY / MNKD deal. After a year, they've got over $100 million in cash left from the partnership, a sound Afrezza production capability, a foothold in Afrezza sales, great real-world feedback, and some completed FDA studies. Going forward, MNKD will need a new partnership but if you look at where they were a year ago and where they are now, it seems like they're in better shape now than a year ago. I understand this is a MNKD message board but I think right now the last thing we need is rose colored glasses. A lot of us need to eat some crow and I have no problems admitting I am totally out of my league here. I want to be realistic. Whats really concerning to me is the San Diego meeting, and more importantly it seems those diabetics have gone from being pro afrezza to border liner pumping. Just take a look at their messages lately. Why would SNY bail after this meeting that was so positive? Do the results from early adopters not make sense? Do they see it being to difficult to market Afrezza? Were they sand bagging from the beginning? In our world the money they spent on Afrezza is a ton but in their world its not a lot of money. In my business I have spent 15k in marketing one month and it totally failed. It sucks but it doesnt cripple me. 500 million wont cripple SNY. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2016 10:55:46 GMT -5
A friend of mine pointed out that the effective date for termination if it goes to the 6th month period is spelled out in the press release......July 4th 2016. Good to see Al still has a sense of humor. I dont get how that is funny? |
|
|
|
Post by novafett on Jan 5, 2016 10:56:30 GMT -5
Independence day.. ba dump bump ching.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2016 11:03:48 GMT -5
Putting on my rose colored glasses for a bit... 1. Assuming SNY terminated the agreement (which I believe is almost certainly the case), then MNKD's cash situation has greatly improved. They'll be able to book the $150 + $25 up-front and milestone payments, less what they owe from the loan facility. I still dont think this is the case2. Going forward MNKD will book 100% of any Afrezza profits until a new partnership is in place. Going forward as of today or in July when the partnerships finally comes to an end?3. I believe they'll gain access to the completed CLAMP studies that SNY has withheld. I thought these clamp studies were required by FDA post approval? Those results can do nothing but keep the drug going4. They'll gain control of Afrezza pricing. I agree5. They'll gain access to all the Afrezza patient data SNY has collected. I agree. Whats really strange is what was the purpose of the San Diego meeting especially with such good feedback? Was this a head fake move for defense against a possible law suit. Seems so odd to do that only to kill the partnership.Overall, I think MNKD got the better part of the SNY / MNKD deal. After a year, they've got over $100 million in cash left from the partnership, a sound Afrezza production capability, a foothold in Afrezza sales, great real-world feedback, and some completed FDA studies. Going forward, MNKD will need a new partnership but if you look at where they were a year ago and where they are now, it seems like they're in better shape now than a year ago. I understand this is a MNKD message board but I think right now the last thing we need is rose colored glasses. A lot of us need to eat some crow and I have no problems admitting I am totally out of my league here. I want to be realistic. Whats really concerning to me is the San Diego meeting, and more importantly it seems those diabetics have gone from being pro afrezza to border liner pumping. Just take a look at their messages lately. Why would SNY bail after this meeting that was so positive? Do the results from early adopters not make sense? Do they see it being to difficult to market Afrezza? Were they sand bagging from the beginning? In our world the money they spent on Afrezza is a ton but in their world its not a lot of money. In my business I have spent 15k in marketing one month and it totally failed. It sucks but it doesnt cripple me. 500 million wont cripple SNY. Some of what Sanofi was doing was just a dog and pony to make it look like a "good faith effort" to market Afrezza. The money they spent on print ads is chump change in the world of big pharma, not even a rounding error. Why Sanofi did this, we can all speculate. One thing for sure, no way DeSisto came on board if he didn't think there was an opportunity for him. With options on 8 million shares, each $10 in SP = $80mm in his pocket. Mannkind could make Duane a billionaire and don't laugh, this journey is far from over. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris-C on Jan 5, 2016 12:11:45 GMT -5
Nate Pile just released his statement urging his subscribers to hold and wait and see based on what is announced in the CC later today. Nate made an observation about what he speculates was more confusion at Sanofi after Viehbacher's firing than people might realize. This, coupled with Brandicourt's jaded experience with Exubera, created a poor climate for giving Afrezza the start it needed. Viehbacher was fired just two months after the deal with MNKD was announced. An interview with Viehbacher reported on Fierce Pharma in June 2015 suggests (to me) that the MNKD-SNY partnership would have been far better off had Viehbacher remained in charge. In the interview, Viehbacher discusses the importance of disruptive technologies and the general inability of large pharmaceutical companies to embrace them and know how to optimize their success. At the same time, he observes that there is massive capital available to invest in disruptive technologies and great opportunities for companies who are able to cast aside traditional approaches to commercializing drugs. See the report here.So, with today's announcement and Duane DeSisto at the helm, it could get very interesting. (I wonder how long the separation agreement signed by Viehbacher with SNY precludes his involvement in disruptive diabetes technologies?) Reasoning: If he liked Afrezza when he was in charge of SNY, he could be a resource for getting investments or helping MNKD line up another partner. GLTAL Chris C |
|
|
|
Post by bradleysbest on Jan 5, 2016 12:18:58 GMT -5
I am hoping for the termination to be finalized close to the 90 day mark... Do not drag this on.
|
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Jan 5, 2016 12:22:31 GMT -5
Nate Pile just released his statement urging his subscribers to hold and wait and see based on what is announced in the CC later today. Nate made an observation about what he speculates was more confusion at Sanofi after Viehbacher's firing than people might realiz. This, coupled with Brandicourt's jaded experience with Exubera, created a poor climate for giving Afrezza the start it needed. Viehbacher was fired just two months after the deal with MNKD was announced. An interview with Viehbacher reported on Fierce Pharma in June 2015 suggests (to me) that the MNKD-SNY partnership would have been far better off had Viehbacher remained in charge. In the interview, Viehbacher discusses the importance of disruptive technologies and the general inability of large pharmaceutical companies to embrace them and know how to optimize their success. At the same time, he observes that there is massive capital available to invest in disruptive technologies and great opportunities for companies who are able to cast aside traditional approaches to commercializing drugs. See the report here.So, with today's announcement and Duane DeSisto at the helm, it could get very interesting. (I wonder how long the separation agreement signed by Viehbacher with SNY precludes his involvement in disruptive diabetes technologies?) Reasoning: If he liked Afrezza when he was in charge of SNY, he could be a resource for getting investments or helping MNKD line up another partner. GLTAL Chris C Agree. To me the biggest knock we got was the changing of the CEO. That was my first and biggest concern. You can't do disruptive without backing from top management. |
|
|
|
Post by mnkdorbust on Jan 5, 2016 12:33:41 GMT -5
So how does the revenue for sales work now. Is the Revenue 75% SNY's until July 4th or termination date or from today/tomorrow/etc on is revenue from Afrezza MNKD's? I assume it's SNY's until finalization of the split but being lazy and asking instead of reading through the material.
|
|
|
|
Post by slugworth008 on Jan 5, 2016 12:37:44 GMT -5
Exactly! Far, far from over. IMO |
|
|
|
Post by slugworth008 on Jan 5, 2016 12:41:41 GMT -5
Nate Pile just released his statement urging his subscribers to hold and wait and see based on what is announced in the CC later today. Nate made an observation about what he speculates was more confusion at Sanofi after Viehbacher's firing than people might realize. This, coupled with Brandicourt's jaded experience with Exubera, created a poor climate for giving Afrezza the start it needed. Viehbacher was fired just two months after the deal with MNKD was announced. An interview with Viehbacher reported on Fierce Pharma in June 2015 suggests (to me) that the MNKD-SNY partnership would have been far better off had Viehbacher remained in charge. In the interview, Viehbacher discusses the importance of disruptive technologies and the general inability of large pharmaceutical companies to embrace them and know how to optimize their success. At the same time, he observes that there is massive capital available to invest in disruptive technologies and great opportunities for companies who are able to cast aside traditional approaches to commercializing drugs. See the report here.So, with today's announcement and Duane DeSisto at the helm, it could get very interesting. (I wonder how long the separation agreement signed by Viehbacher with SNY precludes his involvement in disruptive diabetes technologies?) Reasoning: If he liked Afrezza when he was in charge of SNY, he could be a resource for getting investments or helping MNKD line up another partner. GLTAL Chris C You read my mind - I was thinking the same thing regarding Viehbacher. This game is far from over. I hope the CC is solid today. |
|
|
|
Post by nylefty on Jan 5, 2016 12:51:59 GMT -5
Nate Pile also said that the breakup may be "exactly the sort of event that is needed to finally get things moving for Afrezza."
|
|
|
|
Post by boytroy88 on Jan 5, 2016 12:54:44 GMT -5
Looks like 1/4 of the outstanding shorts covered...and there's still four more hours of trading. Think the whole short float gets covered by eod?
|
|
