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Post by pktrump on Jan 11, 2016 16:41:14 GMT -5
We need direct blunt communication from MNKD whether its bad or good so we can make an informed decision. This would be a very welcomed change going forward. Have not bought another share since after the second CRL. The collapse of the share price since the SNY partnership is pretty amazing to look at in retrospect. But when MNKD went silent, I stopped buying.
Its obvious the shorts had more bankable information than us retails , as is usually the case , which allowed for incredible conviction in the form of 100 million+ shorts. IMO they had first hand knowledge that Brandicourt was not supportive of inhaled insulin and maybe that Verbacher was going to be replaced.
But Al Mann still holds some cards: would love to hear what any of the MBAs or CFAs on this board think are the viable options going forward: can Al take this private and not sell until the price point he believes in is met.? Can't he double down and throw 200-500million at it and giving MNKD a couple of more yrs to work it out; can he raise capital via other means?. I for one think given social media and the ever changing medical landscape, that MNKD could step by step go it alone improving doctor awareness, script numbers and cash flow to stay alive if they get a modest upfront cash payment assuming burn rate doesn't increase exponentially. I liked Spiro's idea of concentrating on a few key markets.
One fact I feel very confident with: The patents, TS and AFZ are worth exponentially more than the MC of MNKD at 0.70. Just don't see BK this year, but This will be the most important MNKD CC of all time.
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Post by fedakd on Jan 11, 2016 16:43:04 GMT -5
What is the point of selling if you have a big loss at this time? It's January 11, 2016. You might as well see how the year trends out as this could turn on a dime. Go back to the WSJ statement last week where it said company was considering sale options. We all would love to see MannKind go it alone but we know they can't. They can't trust another partner unless its a big cash payment up front and that probably won't happen. So the only outcome is Sale of the company and Afrezza or a bankruptcy. In a bankruptcy we lose all and the secured and preferred creditors get everything. Look at Al's position. He is the largest common stock shareholder. Does he want to see that position wiped out? I would GUESS that he would rather sell and see Mannkind / Afrezza survive vs a bankruptcy that wipes that equity out for his Heirs/foundations. I know he also owns some preferred shares but not as many as he does common. the Company needs to be sold....Because instead of hoping for a miracle I can take my money put it in oil and come back in a few years vs riding this down to zero. Give me 5 reasons why you shouldnt sell? Oil is toast. Good luck investing there
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 11, 2016 16:46:58 GMT -5
alethea ... I for one will freely admit that I had been stating that I saw little chance of SNY dropping Afrezza. I was shockingly, horribly wrong about that, and as such I would suggest no one, especially me, ever pay any attention to my opinions again. Maybe we are all George; and we should try doing the opposite. If you are about to order Tuna on Rye, order the Chicken salad on whole wheat. After all, doing the opposite was how he ended up dating that attractive woman and getting the job working for Steinbrenner at the Yankees.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2016 16:48:10 GMT -5
Wait for the news that Mannkind pulled out from JPM conference on Wednesday morning 9.30 am lol
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Post by alethea on Jan 11, 2016 16:55:16 GMT -5
Weren't you saying with near certainty in December that Sanofi partnership was very strong? You've said a lot of things and implied you have inside source(s). How about it? What did you say not long ago about how sure you were that the partnership was going very well? Mgmt didn't have any inkling of Sanofi bailing out either. Everyone was equally blindsided when receiving Sanofi notice on the fateful Jan 4th, 2016. It's water under the bridge. You need to look forward. That's ridiculous. Matt was recently peppered by Jay Olson and other analysts about whether Sanofi might be exiting the joint venture. How could he possibly not have an inkling? Every analyst on Wall Street did. Discussion of Sanofi's exit has been on fire since at least the October call. And MNKD was obviously aware of all the things Sanofi did not do or refused to do since the venture began. He was aware that 2015 sales won't even be $10 million. I am looking forward but not wearing the rose colored glasses and horse blinders that you appear to sporting. I'll be very pleased to see the things you claim will occur on Wednesday happen. I hope you are correct.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 11, 2016 17:01:07 GMT -5
We need direct blunt communication from MNKD whether its bad or good so we can make an informed decision. This would be a very welcomed change going forward. Have not bought another share since after the second CRL. The collapse of the share price since the SNY partnership is pretty amazing to look at in retrospect. But when MNKD went silent, I stopped buying. Its obvious the shorts had more bankable information than us retails , as is usually the case , which allowed for incredible conviction in the form of 100 million+ shorts. IMO they had first hand knowledge that Brandicourt was not supportive of inhaled insulin and maybe that Verbacher was going to be replaced. But Al Mann still holds some cards: would love to hear what any of the MBAs or CFAs on this board think are the viable options going forward: can Al take this private and not sell until the price point he believes in is met.? Can't he double down and throw 200-500million at it and giving MNKD a couple of more yrs to work it out; can he raise capital via other means?. I for one think given social media and the ever changing medical landscape, that MNKD could step by step go it alone improving doctor awareness, script numbers and cash flow to stay alive if they get a modest upfront cash payment assuming burn rate doesn't increase exponentially. I liked Spiro's idea of concentrating on a few key markets. One fact I feel very confident with: The patents, TS and AFZ are worth exponentially more than the MC of MNKD at 0.70. Just don't see BK this year, but This will be the most important MNKD CC of all time. I agree with most of the things stated above, except that Al right now probably does not have a few hundred millions to be put in Mannkind. But I do agree that there are many ways that Mannkind can survive and recover from the current situation. 1. I also like Spiro's idea of concentrating on a few key markets. If sales climb, Mannkind's market value will also climb. 2. And the Griffins' reports of license to regional distributors (Europe, Middle East and Japan) also works. I would believe we can get some upfront fees from each such regional distributors. If we get $25 million from each of them, for example, that will extend the runway for another year or so if we really keep our expenses low. 3. As for TS licenses, if we can basically give away such licenses (with a very low share of future profits, say 10-15%), but with some upfront fee, say $50 million for one or two applications, I would think there will be BPs be interested. That will also extend the runway much further. 4. Additionally, while Al Mann probably does not have a few hundred millions to put in Mannkind, he probably will be able to add $30 million to the existing Mann Group facility if it is absolutely necessary. 5. While a buy-out by Dexcom may be too much to expect, Al Mann may be able to pursuade Dexcom (Kevin) to purchase a minority interest in Mannkind (say 5-10%) and therefore increase the market value of Mannkind. Dexcom has a market cap of over $6 billion. An investment of around $20-30 million isn't much for it right now. 6. Mannkind can aggressively reduce the price of Afrezza to use up its current inventory and drive sales volume. I agree with Spiro that a 50% or more price cut is doable. Again, if sales climb, Mannkind's market value will also climb.
7. Mannkind still has the headquarter building on sale. I recall it was listed for $20 million. If we can get $10-15 million from that. It also helps.
8. Mannkind can raise some additional cash if its market value is recovered to some degree (say back to $2 a share, with a market cap of around $800-900 million) based on any of the above scenarios. If they can raise another $50-100 million, that will help.
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Post by trondisc on Jan 11, 2016 18:05:11 GMT -5
I got a firm confirmation that Mnkd wouldn't pull out of the Conf, Ray (CMO) will present TS Road Map. Matt will present Afrezza game plan, strategic options including future partners, marketing strategy, financial situation, business model, plan to extend runway. There are 2 presenters from Mnkd, suprised !!Also heard TS partner for Pain mgmt, Migraine....... Individual investors can post questions and get immediate answers. It gonna be an open forum, no holds barred, only time is the limiting factor. Please come prepare with written, electronic Qs so that you can cut and paste fast. Let's seize this opportunity to really grill mgmt. Don't complain if you are not prepared. said Kent Kresa, Lead Director of MannKind Corporation. "He understands the strategic and financial challenges that we face at this very important time for our company and has already begun to pursue a number of solutions." I want to believe you but I don't anymore. You were spot on with your anonymous insider info for many months until you said Afrezza isn't going anywhere and Sanofi will not bail on Afrezza. Unfortunately it only takes being wrong ONCE to discredit everything else afterward. Thanks for posting however your reputation has already been tarnished. I will re-instate my trust 100% if everything you just wrote will happen however deep in my heart this is just more bullsh*t on your part.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Jan 11, 2016 18:30:40 GMT -5
alethea ... I for one will freely admit that I had been stating that I saw little chance of SNY dropping Afrezza. I was shockingly, horribly wrong about that, and as such I would suggest no one, especially me, ever pay any attention to my opinions again. Include me in your confession. I wouldn't recommend another stock to a friend if it was my key to salvation. This has been surreal... and I still hold on to a "possibility" that there could be something that gives us fresh insight... and reason for hope. Someone who is very familiar with the company is now the captain. The assets remain the same, as does the credit line. Unless we capitulate and sell off the paper we hold; there are a few more unknowns that may provide some confidence. I am no longer an optimist; but I haven't reached complete capitulation either.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Jan 11, 2016 18:40:40 GMT -5
If MNKD management was reassured by SNY that the partnership was solid, I can understand what happened after December 15th...to some degree. Al took over for Hakan because Hakan was perceived as giving SNY too much room in their marketing of Afrezza. Hakan may not have had the fiery temperament to force SNYs hand. Of course, DD was hired and perhaps SNY did NOT want to be pushed in any way. It seems apparent that they wished to starve MNKD until such time as it needed to sell Afrezza cheap or go bankrupt, in which case they would look like such good guys saving MNKD to go on and pursue other Technosphere partnerships.
So, on January 4th, MNKD was taken by surprise. With that, DD bailed. Clearly, he didn't want his last gig as CEO of any company to be as the captain of a ship that he might not be able to right. Ouch...so here we are.
Lakers probably still had it right. (Sorry to all of you who want someone to blame) I think he is probably suffering and losing with all of us. I certainly hope he is right and I hope he is getting information that has legs. He can only bring forth that which he has access to, but I am grateful for ANY information right now.
And, he was correct about a lot when most of us were just spinning wheels. My guess is that this conference call may not be enough save us either, but we can keep swimming. If we can keep our heads above water long enough, even KBALL may look better in months to come. The longer we float, the more time we will have to implement a strategy where cheap prescriptions will inflate the numbers, and other companies, both potential buyers for Afrezza and for Technosphere, become apparent.
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 11, 2016 19:29:08 GMT -5
I got a firm confirmation that Mnkd wouldn't pull out of the Conf, Ray (CMO) will present TS Road Map. Matt will present Afrezza game plan, strategic options including future partners, marketing strategy, financial situation, business model, plan to extend runway. There are 2 presenters from Mnkd, suprised !!Also heard TS partner for Pain mgmt, Migraine....... We've heard the TS partner(s) for Pain mgmt, Migraine, etc., blarney for months (years?) now. Unless they actually announce and NAME at least one partner it is the same old song and dance.
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Post by obamayoumama on Jan 11, 2016 19:37:03 GMT -5
If MNKD management was reassured by SNY that the partnership was solid, I can understand what happened after December 15th...to some degree. Al took over for Hakan because Hakan was perceived as giving SNY too much room in their marketing of Afrezza. Hakan may not have had the fiery temperament to force SNYs hand. Of course, DD was hired and perhaps SNY did NOT want to be pushed in any way. It seems apparent that they wished to starve MNKD until such time as it needed to sell Afrezza cheap or go bankrupt, in which case they would look like such good guys saving MNKD to go on and pursue other Technosphere partnerships. So, on January 4th, MNKD was taken by surprise. With that, DD bailed. Clearly, he didn't want his last gig as CEO of any company to be as the captain of a ship that he might not be able to right. Ouch...so here we are. Lakers probably still had it right. (Sorry to all of you who want someone to blame) I think he is probably suffering and losing with all of us. I certainly hope he is right and I hope he is getting information that has legs. He can only bring forth that which he has access to, but I am grateful for ANY information right now. And, he was correct about a lot when most of us were just spinning wheels. My guess is that this conference call may not be enough save us either, but we can keep swimming. If we can keep our heads above water long enough, even KBALL may look better in months to come. The longer we float, the more time we will have to implement a strategy where cheap prescriptions will inflate the numbers, and other companies, both potential buyers for Afrezza and for Technosphere, become apparent. Let me clear something up. Duane took the CEO position knowing that SNY was going to pull the plug or MNKD was going to have to pull the plug on SNY. Hakkan was let go and Duane was brought in to correct the SNY situation, period. How do I know, I asked Matt after the SNY announcement to drop Afrezza.
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Post by chauffe00 on Jan 11, 2016 19:40:43 GMT -5
What is the point of selling if you have a big loss at this time? It's January 11, 2016. You might as well see how the year trends out as this could turn on a dime. Go back to the WSJ statement last week where it said company was considering sale options. We all would love to see MannKind go it alone but we know they can't. They can't trust another partner unless its a big cash payment up front and that probably won't happen. So the only outcome is Sale of the company and Afrezza or a bankruptcy. In a bankruptcy we lose all and the secured and preferred creditors get everything. Look at Al's position. He is the largest common stock shareholder. Does he want to see that position wiped out? I would GUESS that he would rather sell and see Mannkind / Afrezza survive vs a bankruptcy that wipes that equity out for his Heirs/foundations. I know he also owns some preferred shares but not as many as he does common. the Company needs to be sold....Because instead of hoping for a miracle I can take my money put it in oil and come back in a few years vs riding this down to zero. Give me 5 reasons why you shouldnt sell? so y are you here reverse - seems like you are a reverse basher - sell your shares and buy oil - have fun...
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Post by mnkdnewb on Jan 11, 2016 19:52:27 GMT -5
Give it up, Lakers. You're just guessing and posting for the attention. Weren't you saying with near certainty in December that Sanofi partnership was very strong? You've said a lot of things and implied you have inside source(s). How about it? What did you say not long ago about how sure you were that the partnership was going very well? I wish I could ignore you... If you (and others) own shares and are just going to complain, then I would recommend selling your position, move on and leave this forum. Nothing but negative
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Post by jpg on Jan 11, 2016 20:27:46 GMT -5
Oil is toast. Good luck investing there Oul is toast? Really? That seems a bit premature no?
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Jan 11, 2016 20:29:27 GMT -5
Thanks Lakers, do you know how much time there is for the whole session and for Q&A?
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