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Post by jpg on Jan 11, 2016 20:29:45 GMT -5
Wait for the news that Mannkind pulled out from JPM conference on Wednesday morning 9.30 am lol I have a feeling JPM is when the sp gets destroyed...
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Post by bill on Jan 11, 2016 20:36:16 GMT -5
I got a firm confirmation that Mnkd wouldn't pull out of the Conf, Ray (CMO) will present TS Road Map. Matt will present Afrezza game plan, strategic options including future partners, marketing strategy, financial situation, business model, plan to extend runway. There are 2 presenters from Mnkd, suprised !!Also heard TS partner for Pain mgmt, Migraine....... Individual investors can post questions and get immediate answers. It gonna be an open forum, no holds barred, only time is the limiting factor. Please come prepare with written, electronic Qs so that you can cut and paste fast. Let's seize this opportunity to really grill mgmt. Don't complain if you are not prepared. said Kent Kresa, Lead Director of MannKind Corporation. "He understands the strategic and financial challenges that we face at this very important time for our company and has already begun to pursue a number of solutions." I want to believe you but I don't anymore. You were spot on with your anonymous insider info for many months until you said Afrezza isn't going anywhere and Sanofi will not bail on Afrezza. Unfortunately it only takes being wrong ONCE to discredit everything else afterward. Thanks for posting however your reputation has already been tarnished. I will re-instate my trust 100% if everything you just wrote will happen however deep in my heart this is just more bullsh*t on your part. trondisc The only reason you shouldn't "believe" lakers is if you consider him a liar, which I do not. He's done nothing but given us accurate information about what one or more MNKD executives think and know. I don't have a problem with your implying that MNKD executives should have been more skeptical about SNY remaining a strong partner, but there's absolutely no reason to believe that lakers has given us anything other than accurate information from the MNKD point of view. You should consider apologizing to lakers for your less than thoughtful comment.
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Post by bill on Jan 11, 2016 20:43:43 GMT -5
Mgmt didn't have any inkling of Sanofi bailing out either. Everyone was equally blindsided when receiving Sanofi notice on the fateful Jan 4th, 2016. It's water under the bridge. You need to look forward. That's ridiculous. Matt was recently peppered by Jay Olson and other analysts about whether Sanofi might be exiting the joint venture. How could he possibly not have an inkling? Every analyst on Wall Street did. Discussion of Sanofi's exit has been on fire since at least the October call. And MNKD was obviously aware of all the things Sanofi did not do or refused to do since the venture began. He was aware that 2015 sales won't even be $10 million. I am looking forward but not wearing the rose colored glasses and horse blinders that you appear to sporting. I'll be very pleased to see the things you claim will occur on Wednesday happen. I hope you are correct. alethea It's not ridiculous. I suspect that if you'd been sitting in the room listening to what the SNY representatives were saying these past months, you too might have held the position that the partnership was strong and durable. Depending on what they said, you'd probably believe you had a better source of information than the analysts who were questioning the partnership. What you may be overlooking is that it is quite possible that SNY executive management was keeping their impending termination plans a closely held secret, particularly from those who were working closely with MNKD. If the SNY representatives to MNKD didn't know what was going on then they could only project total confidence in the partnership because that's the information they had. It's a perfect way for corporations to deal with these sensitive situations. If people don't know, they can't reveal what's really going on. If you confidently feed them misinformation, then they'll confidently convey misinformation. Nasty bit of work by SNY, but that's what you get when there's big money and big egos at stake.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2016 20:55:17 GMT -5
Because instead of hoping for a miracle I can take my money put it in oil and come back in a few years vs riding this down to zero. Give me 5 reasons why you shouldnt sell? Oil is toast. Good luck investing there Guess what will be around longer then Afrezza? Guess what is at current historic lows? What's that called? Opportunity. You have to pick the right company because a lot will be out of business. I"ve traded CPE 4 times in past year. Drops to the 6"s when everyone panics and I've sold each time for 30+% return in weeks after I bought. Check it out but do your own d&d
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2016 20:57:53 GMT -5
Wait for the news that Mannkind pulled out from JPM conference on Wednesday morning 9.30 am lol I have a feeling JPM is when the sp gets destroyed... If they try to pawn off the same bs the stock is done. They need to release substantial information and if they don't it's because they have nothing in there back pocket.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Jan 11, 2016 21:33:20 GMT -5
obamayoumama, How does this make sense to you then: - If Mngt knew that SNY would quit on Jan, why was Duane not around for the CC? The CC would have been long in his timetable. - If Mngt knew that SNY would quit, why was Matt's speech during the CC so "emotional" and in total rather improvised (the moderator, the speech itself, no Q&A and the whole set up) ? They had months to prepare for this. - If Mngt knew and were already preparing for a time after the split, why did Duane leave? If it was due to some TS break-through with a competitor of Insulet etc, why do they wait till the JPM conference to disclose this? It would be substantial news.
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Post by onemann on Jan 11, 2016 21:41:49 GMT -5
First post here however, I've been a member for a while and long MNKD for 2 years. Unfortunately I like so many others went "all in". I bought a few thousand more when SNY terminated the contract because needed to lower my avg share price and I thought DD was going to make a difference. I'm writing my first post because the info that our inside informant lakers is posting is derived from public information. I'm not saying that lakers is dishonest but after the roller coaster ride we've been on I don't want people hanging on to every word he alleges. Again, I'm still long because I believe in Al Mann and Afrezza/TS. Don't forget when Al said he wouldn't sell Afrezza/MNKD for $25 a share. Just register with the JPM site or look at the pic on stocktwits.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 11, 2016 21:44:52 GMT -5
obamayoumama, How does this make sense to you then: - If Mngt knew that SNY would quit on Jan, why was Duane not around for the CC? The CC would have been long in his timetable. - If Mngt knew that SNY would quit, why was Matt's speech during the CC so "emotional" and in total rather improvised (the moderator, the speech itself, no Q&A and the whole set up) ? They had months to prepare for this. - If Mngt knew and were already preparing for a time after the split, why did Duane leave? If it was due to some TS break-through with a competitor of Insulet etc, why do they wait till the JPM conference to disclose this? It would be substantial news. The best guess is that the issue with the non compete was an issue last week and was trying to be resolved. When it was determined by Friday or so that Mannkind couldn't persuade Insulet to let Duane start to work early, we got today's PR. Mannkind just can't get a break. While I am not expecting much from Matt on Wed, it would be a nice change of bad breaks to finally get some good news.
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Post by james on Jan 11, 2016 22:29:29 GMT -5
First post here however, I've been a member for a while and long MNKD for 2 years. Unfortunately I like so many others went "all in". I bought a few thousand more when SNY terminated the contract because needed to lower my avg share price and I thought DD was going to make a difference. I'm writing my first post because the info that our inside informant lakers is posting is derived from public information. I'm not saying that lakers is dishonest but after the roller coaster ride we've been on I don't want people hanging on to every word he alleges. Again, I'm still long because I believe in Al Mann and Afrezza/TS. Don't forget when Al said he wouldn't sell Afrezza/MNKD for $25 a share. Just register with the JPM site or look at the pic on stocktwits. I believe the $25 / share quote was from 2010 when there were ~120M shares. Now we have over 400M shares and a different situation. It's pretty tough to see where a sale at $4 or $5 would come from. Mind you, I am neither a pharma exec nor a particularly good stock analyst (so it would seem).
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Post by obamayoumama on Jan 11, 2016 22:50:03 GMT -5
obamayoumama, How does this make sense to you then: - If Mngt knew that SNY would quit on Jan, why was Duane not around for the CC? The CC would have been long in his timetable. - If Mngt knew that SNY would quit, why was Matt's speech during the CC so "emotional" and in total rather improvised (the moderator, the speech itself, no Q&A and the whole set up) ? They had months to prepare for this. - If Mngt knew and were already preparing for a time after the split, why did Duane leave? If it was due to some TS break-through with a competitor of Insulet etc, why do they wait till the JPM conference to disclose this? It would be substantial news. Hakkan was fired, Duane was brought in. MNKD wouldn't have been aware of the exact date SNY would give notice, or if they would give notice, but it made it much simpler for MNKD by SNY giving notice. MNKD would have had to go through a legal battle if SNY didn't quit. I don't the exact reason why Duane wasn't on the conference call? I believe the answers to your question will happen at JPM.
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Post by mnkdnut on Jan 12, 2016 4:07:08 GMT -5
We need direct blunt communication from MNKD whether its bad or good so we can make an informed decision. This would be a very welcomed change going forward. Have not bought another share since after the second CRL. The collapse of the share price since the SNY partnership is pretty amazing to look at in retrospect. But when MNKD went silent, I stopped buying. Its obvious the shorts had more bankable information than us retails , as is usually the case , which allowed for incredible conviction in the form of 100 million+ shorts. IMO they had first hand knowledge that Brandicourt was not supportive of inhaled insulin and maybe that Verbacher was going to be replaced. But Al Mann still holds some cards: would love to hear what any of the MBAs or CFAs on this board think are the viable options going forward: can Al take this private and not sell until the price point he believes in is met.? Can't he double down and throw 200-500million at it and giving MNKD a couple of more yrs to work it out; can he raise capital via other means?. I for one think given social media and the ever changing medical landscape, that MNKD could step by step go it alone improving doctor awareness, script numbers and cash flow to stay alive if they get a modest upfront cash payment assuming burn rate doesn't increase exponentially. I liked Spiro's idea of concentrating on a few key markets. One fact I feel very confident with: The patents, TS and AFZ are worth exponentially more than the MC of MNKD at 0.70. Just don't see BK this year, but This will be the most important MNKD CC of all time. I agree with most of the things stated above, except that Al right now probably does not have a few hundred millions to be put in Mannkind. But I do agree that there are many ways that Mannkind can survive and recover from the current situation. 1. I also like Spiro's idea of concentrating on a few key markets. If sales climb, Mannkind's market value will also climb. 2. And the Griffins' reports of license to regional distributors (Europe, Middle East and Japan) also works. I would believe we can get some upfront fees from each such regional distributors. If we get $25 million from each of them, for example, that will extend the runway for another year or so if we really keep our expenses low. 3. As for TS licenses, if we can basically give away such licenses (with a very low share of future profits, say 10-15%), but with some upfront fee, say $50 million for one or two applications, I would think there will be BPs be interested. That will also extend the runway much further. 4. Additionally, while Al Mann probably does not have a few hundred millions to put in Mannkind, he probably will be able to add $30 million to the existing Mann Group facility if it is absolutely necessary. 5. While a buy-out by Dexcom may be too much to expect, Al Mann may be able to pursuade Dexcom (Kevin) to purchase a minority interest in Mannkind (say 5-10%) and therefore increase the market value of Mannkind. Dexcom has a market cap of over $6 billion. An investment of around $20-30 million isn't much for it right now. 6. Mannkind can aggressively reduce the price of Afrezza to use up its current inventory and drive sales volume. I agree with Spiro that a 50% or more price cut is doable. Again, if sales climb, Mannkind's market value will also climb.
7. Mannkind still has the headquarter building on sale. I recall it was listed for $20 million. If we can get $10-15 million from that. It also helps.
8. Mannkind can raise some additional cash if its market value is recovered to some degree (say back to $2 a share, with a market cap of around $800-900 million) based on any of the above scenarios. If they can raise another $50-100 million, that will help. I agree with #2. Before they signed the ill-fated Agreement with SNY, Al mentioned having the option to partner regionally (Europe, Middle East, Israel, Japan, China, etc.), but preferred one global partner. I believe it would be possible to go back to that strategy and cobble together a network of regional partners who would contribute some much needed upfront capital. We need partners who will emphasize this product, evangelize it, rather than let it be buried under other priorities and then blame the product for being unwanted. Who they can find for the US, I don't know, but they probably have a few warm prospects based on what DD was going to pursue before having to back out. Besides regional partners, and the always awaited but never delivered TS deal(s), Matt should be negotiating hard with SNY for very significant parting concessions (eg. the next $25 million milestone for insulin qualification?) in exchange for a release from being sued later. I also would not totally rule out the Medtronic idea. If Minimed had a closed loop system that incorporated Afrezza use in its algorithms in a proprietary way, that would give it a serious leg up on the competition. The fact that MDT's joint development effort with Sanofi went kaput gives this idea a bit more life.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Jan 12, 2016 7:44:37 GMT -5
Found it now on the MNKD website/ Overview at the bottom, each with a link. This will going to be a long night for me here in Old Europe. Properly done. 2 different sessions: Events & Presentations 01/13/16 at 3:30 PM PT 34th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference 01/13/16 at 4:00 PM PT 34th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Q&A Session
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Post by jlaw277 on Jan 12, 2016 7:48:30 GMT -5
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Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 12, 2016 8:11:02 GMT -5
I also would not totally rule out the Medtronic idea. If Minimed had a closed loop system that incorporated Afrezza use in its algorithms in a proprietary way, that would give it a serious leg up on the competition. The fact that MDT's joint development effort with Sanofi went kaput gives this idea a bit more life. There has been too much written on this Board concerning MDT's interest in Afrezza. In a closed loop system, the CGM measures blood sugar and infuses insulin as needed. This is worthless for Afrezza because it is inhaled, not infused. But some may argue that the MDT system can tell the user when to take Afrezza. No so. You take Afrezza before a meal. A CGM cannot read the human's mind and determine when a meal will be eaten. The quantity of Afrezza inhaled is also a function of the meal to be eaten. How is the CGM going to figure this out?
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 12, 2016 8:11:25 GMT -5
Afrezza cannot be part of a closed loop system because Afrezza is taken outside the loop (the system does not dispense and track Afrezza, a human does).
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