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Post by garrett on Jan 27, 2016 17:50:54 GMT -5
I would like them to sell soon, on balance, if they could get $3/share, maybe even $2.50. You have to remember that MNKD at least appears desperate. As far as turning the ship around, sure, could happen, but the current management is not so different than previous management, so that's why I give a turn around less of a chance than if we had a new, higher-profile group in charge. As for the initial $55 price tag, even if the revenue numbers were accurate, you'd still have to discount them down to present value and take into account all the other negatives, along with the risk factor of getting absolutely zero out of the investment, or losing it all together. If they don't sell quickly, it will at least be interesting how this whole thing plays out, what Matt is able to do, if he is able to hold onto the CEO job, etc., etc. baba, I think your comment makes sense but I think the purchase price could be a bit higher - $2 to $3 in cash, perhaps $2 of the acquiring companies stock (hopefully a large pharma) and the rest in some type of an earn out upon performance.
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Post by patten1962 on Jan 27, 2016 18:08:35 GMT -5
Don't think Mannkind will sell. Think this is a long term play. Think mannkind will go back to the $2 range in the next week or so. February 3rd call will be interesting.
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Post by bioexec25 on Jan 27, 2016 18:16:41 GMT -5
Don't think Mannkind will sell. Think this is a long term play. Think mannkind will go back to the $2 range in the next week or so. February 3rd call will be interesting. Patten, you are predicting nearly doubling our money in just a week? Oh my Buddha that prediction is right up there in my book with the Babe pointing to the outfield wall walking up to bat. Don't forget to start your own thread next week if this happens. GLTA.
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Post by patten1962 on Jan 27, 2016 18:27:16 GMT -5
Bio. What I think is the stock will go "back" to what is was before Sanofi announcement.. I think it will continue to climb. Don't think a sale is gonna happen at $55. Think a lot of questions will be answered February 3rd.
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Post by bioexec25 on Jan 27, 2016 18:44:51 GMT -5
Hey Patten, agree pps should appreciate into the call, though I've underestimated the shorts and traders greatly in the past. I'm personally not expecting any real revelations of Feb 3rd, albeit I love the pattern of regular calls with investors as we navigate through this tough transition. Perhaps there is a deal or material things being finalized and disclosed in a PR just before the call on 3rd, just can't get my hopes up on that given how long these things take to negotiate and finalize.
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Post by goyocafe on Jan 27, 2016 19:14:29 GMT -5
Don't think Mannkind will sell. Think this is a long term play. Think mannkind will go back to the $2 range in the next week or so. February 3rd call will be interesting. Patten, you are predicting nearly doubling our money in just a week? Oh my Buddha that prediction is right up there in my book with the Babe pointing to the outfield wall walking up to bat. Don't forget to start your own thread next week if this happens. GLTA. How fast did it drop?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2016 19:32:00 GMT -5
all i know and can tell is an announcement of superiority trial will add a few 100 million dollars to Afrezza value if sold
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Post by kball on Jan 27, 2016 20:34:48 GMT -5
I would like them to sell soon, on balance, if they could get $3/share, maybe even $2.50. You have to remember that MNKD at least appears desperate. As far as turning the ship around, sure, could happen, but the current management is not so different than previous management, so that's why I give a turn around less of a chance than if we had a new, higher-profile group in charge. As for the initial $55 price tag, even if the revenue numbers were accurate, you'd still have to discount them down to present value and take into account all the other negatives, along with the risk factor of getting absolutely zero out of the investment, or losing it all together. If they don't sell quickly, it will at least be interesting how this whole thing plays out, what Matt is able to do, if he is able to hold onto the CEO job, etc., etc. I hate to think $3 is the ceiling, but I would be ecstatic with anything North of $4.I mentioned this earlier in a closed thread... But if it got to 4.00 i would kiss lepers
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Post by trondisc on Jan 27, 2016 20:51:51 GMT -5
None of this good news feels real. With the massive short interest increase report that was recently released I'm still scared as hell being a Long right now. MannKind/Technosphere deserve a chance *in the right (company) hands* to change the world with wireless monitoring devices. It would really be sad to see 15+ years of R&D not live on to forever improve lives globally.
Here's to my $5 buyout prediction even though Afrezza/Technosphere quality is unmatched and it should easily be $25+ based on real world results and future market share domination over needles. If someone wants the whole enchilada guaranteed without Alfred soliciting ANYBODY else then they will make him an offer he cannot refuse and so high no other bidders will counter? Thoughts please.
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Post by jurystillout on Jan 27, 2016 21:15:48 GMT -5
We have coined the term FUD, how about we coin a new term, SPUD "Spontaneous Pumping Utterly Delusional". This board seems to be full of both, and for those that are following, SPUD is far more dangerous Hey! I could be accused of SPUD as I have a whole bunch of shares (tens of thousands of them in fact) and I still believe we will get to see, at the very least, my cost basis of $2.48/share. $55/share was in the front windshield a year ago. With some strong sales and some Techno deals, we could have been, right now, ready for that $55. But a year has passed and with SNY trying to bury us, MNKD is a bit tarnished. Can we recover, hell yes! Can we get to $55/share? If we survive the next two years, increase our Afrezza sales both here and abroad and sign a few more Techno licensing deals as well as create a pipeline for ourselves, we are back up PAST $55/share. How many here are willing to hold a few years? After the insanity of the past 10, many are ready to get out with something approacing their investments. Many would be THRILLED to get out with their lives intact. I'm holding until we sell, go bankrupt or until the end. I'm willing to wait 5 years for $55/share. Your comments are much closer to reality than what I'm reading from others. We have a terrific product and a whole lot of big challenges to overcome, it's going to take time to overcome these challenges. I'm reading posts that resemble a fairytail where a knight on a white horse rides in and saves the damsil in distress. It's not going to work that way! All we really have to go on with all this hype is a single article stating the same thing we already heard Matt say. Even if a sale does take place we have no idea what the impact will be on any of our portfolios, predicting a $55.00 pps any time in the near future is just going to lead to alot of hearrbreak for some poor believer
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Post by chuck on Jan 27, 2016 21:39:29 GMT -5
What is unfortunate about these predictions like $55 is that one can implicitly conclude that smaller values like $5 or $10 are "reasonable" when compared to $55, but that is far from the case.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2016 21:45:54 GMT -5
What is unfortunate about these predictions like $55 is that one can implicitly conclude that smaller values like $5 or $10 are "reasonable" when compared to $55, but that is far from the case. Yes, one wonders whether this is an exercise in "moving the Overton window" for a trading opportunity... or perhaps as an exercise in rationalization for ones actions. Seems like we've got some Overton action going on in both primaries.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2016 21:55:04 GMT -5
Ideally $25+ PPS for all of Afrezza+MannKind which recognizes the amazing accomplishments by Technosphere/Mannkind. Realistically only $7-15; larger end of range if more than 2 bidders. Consider Afrezza's undeniable superiority & real world results: astonishing. The execution in the product will help propel future sales for any company who acquires MNKD generations to come! Technosphere could challenge the status quo with wireless health monitoring should the right company buy MannKind. MannKind has spent 10+years of R&D on Afrezza/Technosphere; this company did not invent a mediocre device. How the hell Alphabet hasn't made a move for MannKind yet after the recent Qualcomm+Novartis wireless device partnership IS BEYOND ME. Qualcomm makes chips that would go into the inhalers so there actually is some reason for them to partner with Novartis. Alphabet does not make bluetooth chips. I imagine Qualcomm's deal with Novartis is not exclusive. If recording dosing for compliance monitoring were really something that had a big clinical relevance right now, I'm sure MNKD could strike a deal with Qualcomm as well and design that into dreamboat... it would just jack up the production cost. Insurers at this point aren't going to assign any value to that. We've long had caps on bottles that register whether a patient takes their pills and insurers don't pay for that technology. Most doctors offices aren't even equipped to take incoming data. From a patients perspective this would likely be tied into their meter, but most modern meters already have ability to record an insulin dose so having a bluetooth connection just drives up cost of dreamboat and merely for savings a few button presses by the patient. And why the excitement about the Qualcomm/Novartis deal... I don't think Novartis got any money out of it. That would be a short lived pop for MNKD if there were one from announcement that MNKD was building bluetooth into dreamboat in cooperation with Qualcomm.
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Post by trondisc on Jan 27, 2016 22:12:53 GMT -5
Fair enough dreamboatcruise...just hypothesizing possible synergies between industries that help each other.
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 27, 2016 22:59:43 GMT -5
And why the excitement about the Qualcomm/Novartis deal... I don't think Novartis got any money out of it. That would be a short lived pop for MNKD if there were one from announcement that MNKD was building bluetooth into dreamboat in cooperation with Qualcomm. It's even less than that! Novartis and Qualcomm are spending money to establish this alliance, $100 million. There was a separate deal a while back for Qualcomm to produce a module for a coming smart COPD inhaler from Novartis (expected 2019). Novartis has also licensed Google's smart contact lens technology although that is a long way from commercial status. The common thing is that these are all about devices, not drugs. Google is not going to invest in MNKD because they do not sell devices that produce data.
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