|
|
Post by tchalaa on Jan 27, 2016 14:42:39 GMT -5
With the capability of winning up to 10% of the diabetes population (29 million), excluding prediabetes population, Afrezza® has a market potential peak ($2,800/year) of at least $8 Billion within the 4 next year just in the U.S .
If Mannkind Corp decides to reduce the price by 1/3 -> ($1,900/year) Afrezza® market potential peak can be least $5,4 Billion within the 4 next year just in the U.S
Well, let's maintain our profit income at around 25% of sales equal at least to $1.3Billion;
As of March 2015, the drugs sector has an average P/E ratio of 24.10.
Let us now consider our minimal $1.3 Billion income target, which brings us to 24.1*$1.3B = $31.33B assuming a full dilution of the total 560 million shares, this sets ($31,330/560=$55,9)
MNKD's share price should be greater than $55,9 in 4 years (This, when winning only 10% of the diabetes population without prediabetics).
Now it is very important to remark that:
- Mannkind still has a tax-break advantage of $2B from R&D
- Next huge drug market for Technosphere® is epinephrine against anaphylactic shock an allergy, this according to the new CEO Matt Pfeffer (Jan, 26. 2016)
- New API for Technosphere® will follow in pain management and pulmonary diseases with Receptor life science
- The above valuation is solely based on Technosphere® Insulin known as Afrezza®
How cheap is Mannkind Corporation now considering the painless and ultra-fast features of its delivery platform Technosphere®, the estimated value impact of the Diabetes market?
|
|
|
|
Post by kbrion77 on Jan 27, 2016 14:46:14 GMT -5
This thread should be fun.
|
|
|
|
Post by suebeeee1 on Jan 27, 2016 14:47:04 GMT -5
LOL... I just literally choked on my coffee. I would happily accept $55/share. Deal done!
|
|
|
|
Post by tchalaa on Jan 27, 2016 14:51:48 GMT -5
It is why i personally don't expect a buyout, because what we need are dollars for marketing not giving it away for free at $5 $10 even $20 ...
|
|
|
|
Post by cgiscgis on Jan 27, 2016 14:53:16 GMT -5
What about finding an Afrezza partner for the US market and additional partners for ROW? Then keep Technosphere and do Receptor Life Sciences like deals going forward?
|
|
|
|
Post by BlueCat on Jan 27, 2016 14:56:19 GMT -5
LOL... I just literally choked on my coffee. I would happily accept $55/share. Deal done! I think the challenge here is that the technology is not in question. Nor the addressable market or potential pipeline of drugs, and all the patents it represents. In fact, I don't think really the share price currently is the guiding factor (tho perhaps a limiting factor - why buy cow when milk is free?) I think the issue is the MNKD has yet to prove that TS platform delivers solutions that are Go-to-Market (GTM) .... bankable.
Afrezza has needed to be that POC so that the MNKD price tag is based on a proven business concept. Not a proven medical one with a theoretical commercial one. Right now, the jury in the market is still out. Did SNY sink it due to malevolence or incompetence? Was diabetic (endo) audience wrong place to introduce for traction? Or is this just not going to fly because of lung fears? My firm belief is that it IS bankable, and SNY was a very unfortunate miss. I would be surprised if they sell before they either prove via Afrezza sales (e.g. nice bulk sale to another country would do fine just now), and/or the TS pipeline agreements start to spawn past RLS. |
|
|
|
Post by suebeeee1 on Jan 27, 2016 14:58:25 GMT -5
LOL... I just literally choked on my coffee. I would happily accept $55/share. Deal done! I think the challenge here is that the technology is not in question. Nor the addressable market or potential pipeline of drugs, and all the patents it represents. In fact, I don't think really the share price currently is the guiding factor (tho perhaps a limiting factor - why buy cow when milk is free?) I think the issue is the MNKD has yet to prove that TS platform delivers solutions that are Go-to-Market (GTM) .... bankable.
Afrezza has needed to be that POC so that the MNKD price tag is based on a proven business concept. Not a proven medical one with a theoretical commercial one. Right now, the jury in the market is still out. Did SNY sink it due to malevolence or incompetence? Was diabetic (endo) audience wrong place to introduce for traction? Or is this just not going to fly because of lung fears? My firm belief is that it IS bankable, and SNY was a very unfortunate miss. I would be surprised if they sell before they either prove via Afrezza sales (e.g. nice bulk sale to another country would do fine just now), and/or the TS pipeline agreements start to spawn past RLS. So? Are you saying that we hold out for $55? |
|
|
|
Post by BlueCat on Jan 27, 2016 15:03:59 GMT -5
I think I'd have to be a sell out long, long before then. But I certainly wouldn't say no if it were handed to me!
Where i was going was to say - $55 isn't unreasonable in the larger scope. The problem is current reality. They haven't proven their case - yet. And not clear they will have the time now to do so, so though not impossible, it is likely we'll have to settle for a lot less.
This is quite different from the position that says "at best case this company is only ever worth $10-15". That's @#4!. IMHO.
Always comes back to business execution. Sigh.
|
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2016 15:10:03 GMT -5
There are going to be some very, very disappointed people if MNKD does sell. Some serious disconnect with reality.
Please if anyone believes this will sell for $55... I've got lots of shares I'd be willing to sell you right now at my cost basis of $4.38 and you could make 12x return on your investment.
But seriously... if anyone really has any inkling of a belief in such a wild valuation you can buy way out of the money calls for next to nothing and you'd make a killing. If you bet $300 you could buy 100 Jan 18 $7 strike calls giving you 10000 shares and a profit of $55 - $7 = $48/shr or $480,000 dollars.
Anyone have enough confidence to bet $300... or even $3 (that would get you one call contract, minus trading fee that is)?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2016 15:17:48 GMT -5
Threads like these should be closed. When I read stuff liek this it makes me want to sell my shares. That I am currently on the same side as someone who thinks $55 a share is possible
|
|
|
|
Post by tchalaa on Jan 27, 2016 15:26:51 GMT -5
Threads like these should be closed. When I read stuff liek this it makes me want to sell my shares. That I am currently on the same side as someone who thinks $55 a share is possible @reverselo you are missing the point like many others, based on the technology when proven marketable that is what could have been expected if SNY did effecient marketing. So my point is to show that facing a buyout pressure now accepting it is doing investors no good |
|
|
|
Post by matt on Jan 27, 2016 15:31:04 GMT -5
Mental math is fine, but very few deals go off at valuations higher than a 50% premium to current market. Most healthcare deals are done with a premium between 20-35%. As I write this the price has moved back down to about $1, so we are talking $1.50. There are three limiting factors:
1. Shareholders from the buyer would show up at their company's headquarters with pitchforks and burning torches. The board of directors would be close behind with buckets of hot tar and feathers. If you do the math on $55 price, including debt, including debt conversion options, and warrants, MNKD would have a $30 billion price tag. There are many pharma companies with $30B price tags that are profitable, well capitalized, and with sales. Is MNKD really as valuable as Baxalta, Biomarin, Shire, and Vertex? Heck, Teva is only worth a bit more.
2. Pharma companies do not pay real cash for Chinese math, and what you proposed is what is known in the finance world as Chinese math (i.e. speculation). If it was so easy to hit penetration numbers, even Sanofi would have done it. The risks of failure in the real world are a lot more daunting, which is why nobody pays up for potential in a mature market. Everybody learned a lesson from the "Dot Com" bubble, and pharmas had their own acquisition bubble in the late 1980's and early 1990's.
3. Even if the executives could initially escape from the angry mob, they have to earn a return on that $30B investment to keep their jobs. Return on equity in drugs averages 20% after tax so MNKD would need to return $6 billion in after-tax profits a year, this year, next year, and every other year in perpetuity just to keep pace. Only if MNKD earned more than $6B per year would the shareholders of the buyer be better off and, if they are not, refer to point 1 above.
|
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2016 15:34:36 GMT -5
Threads like these should be closed. When I read stuff liek this it makes me want to sell my shares. That I am currently on the same side as someone who thinks $55 a share is possible Drink your kool aid, Shelby. It's impolite not to finish it. |
|
|
|
Post by tchalaa on Jan 27, 2016 15:44:20 GMT -5
There are going to be some very, very disappointed people if MNKD does sell. Some serious disconnect with reality. Please if anyone believes this will sell for $55... I've got lots of shares I'd be willing to sell you right now at my cost basis of $4.38 and you could make 12x return on your investment. But seriously... if anyone really has any inkling of a belief in such a wild valuation you can buy way out of the money calls for next to nothing and you'd make a killing. If you bet $300 you could buy 100 Jan 18 $7 strike calls giving you 10000 shares and a profit of $55 - $7 = $48/shr or $480,000 dollars. Anyone have enough confidence to bet $300... or even $3 (that would get you one call contract, minus trading fee that is)? LOL ... magic |
|
|
|
Post by jurystillout on Jan 27, 2016 15:48:20 GMT -5
We have coined the term FUD, how about we coin a new term, SPUD "Spontaneous Pumping Utterly Delusional". This board seems to be full of both, and for those that are following, SPUD is far more dangerous
|
|
