Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2016 20:45:46 GMT -5
The comment about Matt saying "no plans" for BK is an example of a CEO who is in way over his head. Why? Since when does a company need to "plan" for BK? That's like saying I'm planning to lose the football game, planning to lose at texas holdem, planning for my car wreck later this week or any other example you can think of. A business doesn't need to plan for BK. When the cash runs out and/or creditors come knocking, it just happens whether one plans for it or not and he's absolutely right - mnkd isn't planning for BK. Most people go into BK kicking and screaming until they sit in front of the judge who dictates to you exactly what you will and will not do. Very difficult when it happens and reality, if it didn't' set in yet, definitely sets in. At that point you are out of control. It's a "duh" statement and the mere fact he even said it speaks volumes on multiple levels. A seasoned CEO in this situation avoids the word "BK" at all cost and reassures investors of continued existence with insight on how that's going to get done.
|
|
|
|
Post by beardawg on Feb 3, 2016 21:07:03 GMT -5
Much to say about nothing. My prediction is more downgrades or reconfirming bearish position by Goldman, Piper, and JP Morgan. The fact that Matt said "we're not considering bankruptcy at this time" will just provide more fodder for the short interest. But that's Matt. He always makes at least one stupid statement on the CC's, unless he's intentionally trying to sandbag the SP (which I doubt). Trend How should he have answered it? |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 3, 2016 21:23:54 GMT -5
I'd add the one that really disappointed me... no discussions with payers until after the transition... i.e. MNKD won't even get a perspective on probability of getting better coverage until Q2. Are they going to decide to reduce the price without even having these discussions? Maybe reducing to SQ RAA level is no brainer... but I can't imagine payers would adjust formulary just based on change in price if MNKD isn't talking to them. I take that as no disclosure versus no discussion. I am sure they are using this time to get all their ideas and plans in line on how to address payers. I believe he said discussion more than once. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 3, 2016 21:34:14 GMT -5
The comment about Matt saying "no plans" for BK is an example of a CEO who is in way over his head. Why? Since when does a company need to "plan" for BK? That's like saying I'm planning to lose the football game, planning to lose at texas holdem, planning for my car wreck later this week or any other example you can think of. A business doesn't need to plan for BK. When the cash runs out and/or creditors come knocking, it just happens whether one plans for it or not and he's absolutely right - mnkd isn't planning for BK. Most people go into BK kicking and screaming until they sit in front of the judge who dictates to you exactly what you will and will not do. Very difficult when it happens and reality, if it didn't' set in yet, definitely sets in. At that point you are out of control. It's a "duh" statement and the mere fact he even said it speaks volumes on multiple levels. A seasoned CEO in this situation avoids the word "BK" at all cost and reassures investors of continued existence with insight on how that's going to get done. Chapter 11 is sometimes a planned move. It would for instance be a way of getting out of the insulin purchase agreement. Not sure if common shareholders ever end up with something on the other side. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris-C on Feb 3, 2016 21:36:19 GMT -5
The comment about Matt saying "no plans" for BK is an example of a CEO who is in way over his head. Why? Since when does a company need to "plan" for BK? That's like saying I'm planning to lose the football game, planning to lose at texas holdem, planning for my car wreck later this week or any other example you can think of. A business doesn't need to plan for BK. When the cash runs out and/or creditors come knocking, it just happens whether one plans for it or not and he's absolutely right - mnkd isn't planning for BK. Most people go into BK kicking and screaming until they sit in front of the judge who dictates to you exactly what you will and will not do. Very difficult when it happens and reality, if it didn't' set in yet, definitely sets in. At that point you are out of control. It's a "duh" statement and the mere fact he even said it speaks volumes on multiple levels. A seasoned CEO in this situation avoids the word "BK" at all cost and reassures investors of continued existence with insight on how that's going to get done. Perhaps the most appropriate adjective I can summon for my thoughts about the call is "disappointing". That said, I think in fairness we should give some props to Matt for his genuine efforts to communicate enthusiasm, company effort and commitment to address transparency concerns. Perhaps his intention when answering the question about bankruptcy was to reassure, but it was naive of him to take the bait from our old nemesis Jay Olsen. If he was trying to reassure, he should have replied, "We are extremely busy working on well-considered strategies to make this company a success, and we fully intend to address the cash flow problem in a manner that is good for our investors. You will be advised of further progress during the quarterly conference call." Also, perhaps Matt's zeal for greater transparency failed to consider that when a company schedules a special call, it's important to have substantively new information to share, since people will be expecting this. Ambiguity is an enemy in the investing arena when a company has failed to deliver results, and no really promising news has come from the company since it announced its partnership with Sanofi almost 18 months ago, which most of us thought at the time was a harbinger of good outcomes. All things considered, a new FAQ would have accomplished just as much without providing an opportunity for the analysts to reinforce their thinly veiled skepticism. As others here, I expect that one or more of the firms will reiterate their negative forecasts. Yes, even die hard investors here will concede that sometimes there IS such a thing as too much information, or stated another way, more stated intentions without the delivery of results. |
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Feb 3, 2016 21:41:22 GMT -5
That call was a disaster from a financial point of view. Hands tied till april, Bk is a last resort not consider it yet (oh boy, that's code folks and not the kind one wants to hear), and, well, the rest is what it is. My point is simple - BK in 2016 appears inevitable. Evidence? All of it. Cash position, hands tied, insurance coverage won't get fixed in 2016 (that's a certainty as much as anything can be certain in this world), and matts words which are as conflicting as mnkd's message the last year and a half (sales will pick up, DTC is coming in august, embarrassment of riches, additional deals, cash is not a problem, the august converts are no big deal, very little clarity on tase, the relationship with sny is going wonderfully well, and on and on). What's different right now vs when hakan was CEO? Answer - a different body in the CEO position. Otherwise, nothing is different. No partners, no cash infusion, and at a time when they desperately need to get sales rolling mnkd's hands are tied for the next couple of months. Unlike personal finances where one can continue their spending lifestyle right up until you enter bankruptcy court, it doesn't work out that way for public companies. Creditors to public companies are very smart and when they see a sinking ship, they take whatever actions to recover their funds as quickly as possible. That's why mnkd won't go until the last dollar is spent. Creditors will force BK while there's still some cash to go around. It also completely kills doing deals with other companies. Why? Their finance people will take a look, and, just like you and I going to a garage sale, they will know they can go after mnkd's assets in BK. Why buy today at 400 million when they could buy it in 6 months at 100 million or less? This is what it is and you can hate the messenger. But it's a business reality. Sums up my thinking at this point. Better than i could. Not FUD, REALITY. Penny stock. Enormous losses. ....Unless a payment by Sanofi and soon Your point of view is "REALITY" but I see some of what davince writes as unvarnished FUD, with an emphasis on the "D" for Doubt/Despair (I've noticed folks usually apply one of these two choices).
Last week, I posted that Matt would have to explain that MannKind has contractual obligations that will prevent them from ANY commercializing activities until the Effective Date of Termination (EDT). Why the sudden surprise? April 5 happens to be only 8 weeks away.
"Bk is a last resort not consider it yet (oh boy, that's code folks and not the kind one wants to hear)..." Really? There is a code out there? It seems strange that in my 30 years of investing and listening to conference calls, that I missed that one. Any other code words I should be aware of? CEO Pfeffer cannot rule out bankruptcy. There isn't a single CEO who would rule it out. Bankrupcy (among MANY other risks) is written into virtually 100% of annual 10-K filing for every corporation in the country. The disclaimer is for legal protection. Jay Olson wanted to make MannKind's CEO squirm and so he forced the bankruptcy question on him, even though Matt had answered the very same question earlier in his addressing the Retail Q&A's. Code word? The only code I know of is the unspoken risk that comes with every investment.
So, from his "financial point of view", davinci (and apparently you) BK - which I take to be an acronym for "bankruptcy" - in 2016 appear inevitable.
"No partners, no cash infusion, and at a time when they desperately need to get sales rolling mnkd's hands are tied for the next couple of months." - Let's change that to 1 new partner. There remain many options for cash infusion, including our new partner who, Matt previously stated at the JPM Conference, may provide the first milestone payment before EOY if drug development progresses well. I also think the words "they desperately need" are inflammatory. Sales (paltry as they are) will continue until the EDT when rights transfer. Between now and then, MannKind will be negotiating with ex-U.S. regional partners (meaning large initial sales orders get placed for initial stocking of national/regional inventories) and they will be hiring a good marketing executive who will put together the e-Campaign so that it's ready to roll when Afrezza is returned.
That's not desperate-sounding to me. It's simply making up for lost time caused by Sanofi.
Finally, this conference was unlike any other. Rough around the edges, yes, but it was primarily intended to show retail investors that their voices matter. Only don't expect MannKind's new CEO to listen to you for very long if your message to him is that "bankruptcy is inevitable".
It simply isn't and that's my point of view, for whatever it's worth.
Good fortune to all.
|
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 3, 2016 21:41:27 GMT -5
This is what it is and you can hate the messenger. But it's a business reality. Hold still... let me get my messenger impaling pitchfork. It's a special rusty one. |
|
|
|
Post by taylor810dn on Feb 3, 2016 21:51:50 GMT -5
What he really said was that MNKD would have to be in much dire shape financially for them to even start to consider BK, much different than your reading between the lines and insinuations. He also said with their current finances, they would have 59-60 million in cash at the end of the year.
|
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 3, 2016 22:04:49 GMT -5
Between now and then, MannKind will be negotiating with ex-U.S. regional partners (meaning large initial sales orders get placed for initial stocking of national/regional inventories) and they will be hiring a good marketing executive who will put together the e-Campaign so that it's ready to roll when Afrezza is returned.
That's not desperate-sounding to me. It's simply making up for lost time caused by Sanofi.
If MNKD manages to sign on one or more regional partners I would totally agree with you that the situation would likely not be desperate. Even if upfront were modest, that potentially could tilt the scales such that a share offering could be had higher than where we are. I think many here, including me dependent on mood, are skeptical of whether a regional partner will come soon enough. Surely you would agree that on the current course things will be desperate sometime later this year without a new event? Given that RLS milestone is only probably in 2016, I'm putting that down as near end of year at best... and in my book that leaves a cash gap where even with the best maneuvering possible we'd be in the valley of near death for some time period. |
|
|
|
Post by cjc04 on Feb 3, 2016 22:10:11 GMT -5
That call was a disaster from a financial point of view. Hands tied till april, Bk is a last resort not consider it yet (oh boy, that's code folks and not the kind one wants to hear), and, well, the rest is what it is. My point is simple - BK in 2016 appears inevitable. Evidence? All of it. Cash position, hands tied, insurance coverage won't get fixed in 2016 (that's a certainty as much as anything can be certain in this world), and matts words which are as conflicting as mnkd's message the last year and a half (sales will pick up, DTC is coming in august, embarrassment of riches, additional deals, cash is not a problem, the august converts are no big deal, very little clarity on tase, the relationship with sny is going wonderfully well, and on and on). What's different right now vs when hakan was CEO? Answer - a different body in the CEO position. Otherwise, nothing is different. No partners, no cash infusion, and at a time when they desperately need to get sales rolling mnkd's hands are tied for the next couple of months. Unlike personal finances where one can continue their spending lifestyle right up until you enter bankruptcy court, it doesn't work out that way for public companies. Creditors to public companies are very smart and when they see a sinking ship, they take whatever actions to recover their funds as quickly as possible. That's why mnkd won't go until the last dollar is spent. Creditors will force BK while there's still some cash to go around. It also completely kills doing deals with other companies. Why? Their finance people will take a look, and, just like you and I going to a garage sale, they will know they can go after mnkd's assets in BK. Why buy today at 400 million when they could buy it in 6 months at 100 million or less? This is what it is and you can hate the messenger. But it's a business reality. It makes me sicker than I already am to agree with you. The pit in my stomach can't get any larger. I can not even say the number of $ I put into this to myself, never mind out loud. Believing what I was told every step over the past 2 years. The SNY relationship is fine. The SNY relationship is fine. SNY ended the agreement! Not considering BK Not considering BK ........ |
|
|
|
Post by dictatorsaurus on Feb 3, 2016 22:11:17 GMT -5
About a year ago people were holding flags up high cheering on Sanofi. Today some of the same people are talking BK. What have I learned from all of this? The market is ridiculously unpredictable and fickle. Take everything with a grain of salt and have faith in the science. Tough situation indeed. But I think somehow we are going to pull through. Too much of a good thing not to. I applaud Matt for his efforts. Things are brewing in the background. Its always a waiting game with this company, isn't it?  |
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Feb 3, 2016 22:50:19 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by tayl5 on Feb 4, 2016 0:42:21 GMT -5
If Matt didn't directly address the bankruptcy question and instead only made positive noises about the steps the company was taking to get back on track, the moaners would be wringing their hands and moaning about how out of touch with reality he was. Just saying the word doesn't make it so, and if he pretended it wasn't a possible outcome down the road, I'd really be worried. You can read into it what you like, but I thought he did a good job with the call and appreciate his efforts to provide more information and answer some of our questions.
One question I really wanted addressed was an update on Al's status. Some posters have him plotting taking the company private and coming up with various ways to make the shorts pay for their sins. I just hope he's ok.
|
|
|
|
Post by LosingMyBullishness on Feb 4, 2016 2:32:12 GMT -5
good luck getting that seasoned marketing exec. Kind of a hard sell when the company is potentially a few quarters from bankruptcy Why? He can't loss with the right package and but can win a lot. |
|
|
|
Post by LosingMyBullishness on Feb 4, 2016 2:39:31 GMT -5
Good summary. The call was mostly positive and helpful. I find it interesting that the Shoutbox was so negative. The two main negative items: 1. TS pain is apparently on the backburner (though I'm not surprised because of cost) 2. MannKind isn't able to make changes to Afrezza pricing/marketing strategies until licensing transitions back to MannKind (this may take longer than expected). The main concern is obviously cash burn until Afrezza sales can be turned around. And, new partners and milestones payments aren't likely to show up for a while. The positive: MannKind remains committed to Afrezza/TS and Management no longer appears apathetic to shareholders. I think the company is moving in the right direction. The Stock is still a HOLD but I feal that the stock is undervalued here. If I had to pick a number I'd say MNKD is worth 3$, but I'm not buying until another partner steps forward. The first partner is likely an international Afrezza partner, but Sanofi needs to go away first. Sean, I assume that it wasn't an issue that pricing is unchanged. That has been clear since last call. It was the lack of more flesh on partnerships whether on clinics or on TS. Upfront payment would have lifted the price and muted the annoying reiteration of bankruptcy. |
|
