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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Feb 4, 2016 2:44:15 GMT -5
Much to say about nothing. My prediction is more downgrades or reconfirming bearish position by Goldman, Piper, and JP Morgan. The fact that Matt said "we're not considering bankruptcy at this time" will just provide more fodder for the short interest. But that's Matt. He always makes at least one stupid statement on the CC's, unless he's intentionally trying to sandbag the SP (which I doubt). Trend Yep, mentioning bankruptcy was unnecessary and unreflected. JO would have mentioned it anyway. |
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Post by trenddiver on Feb 4, 2016 2:59:05 GMT -5
Much to say about nothing. My prediction is more downgrades or reconfirming bearish position by Goldman, Piper, and JP Morgan. The fact that Matt said "we're not considering bankruptcy at this time" will just provide more fodder for the short interest. But that's Matt. He always makes at least one stupid statement on the CC's, unless he's intentionally trying to sandbag the SP (which I doubt). Trend How should he have answered it? Matt brought up the topic. It wasn't necessary to discuss something that wasn't being discussed seriously by management. And if it was being discussed by management, why bring it up on a conference call. What he did was put the topic on the table for shorts to feed upon and place doubts in investors minds. If he was looking to drive down the SP, he couldn't have have devised a better way. Trend |
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Post by afrizzle on Feb 4, 2016 6:42:19 GMT -5
The product cost is highly sensitive to volume,
they plan to lower the price to parity with competitors,
there are 8 weeks left before they can do this
They intend to target volume in international markets where no further filings or studies are required
They have the cash to take a run at this new strategy
That's a half full glass to me
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Post by mindovermatter on Feb 4, 2016 6:51:46 GMT -5
The product cost is highly sensitive to volume, they plan to lower the price to parity with competitors, there are 8 weeks left before they can do this They intend to target volume in international markets where no further filings or studies are required They have the cash to take a run at this new strategy That's a half full glass to me Since past execution has been less than stellar, shareholders can only HOPE that they can get it right now. But that is the problem. A management team that has been ineffective in the past doesn't have great odds of executing well in the future. |
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Post by blu2waz on Feb 4, 2016 7:42:27 GMT -5
The date is April 4. If you keep adding a day we'll be to June by the time April rolls around. That's how shorties work; one stone at à time.
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Post by liane on Feb 4, 2016 7:52:07 GMT -5
blu2wazNot sure what your point is; Matt specifically said April 5th was the target, but that MNKD may seek to extend this date.
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Post by kball on Feb 4, 2016 8:35:30 GMT -5
Sums up my thinking at this point. Better than i could. Not FUD, REALITY. Penny stock. Enormous losses. ....Unless a payment by Sanofi and soon Your point of view is "REALITY" but I see some of what davince writes as unvarnished FUD, with an emphasis on the "D" for Doubt/Despair (I've noticed folks usually apply one of these two choices).
Last week, I posted that Matt would have to explain that MannKind has contractual obligations that will prevent them from ANY commercializing activities until the Effective Date of Termination (EDT). Why the sudden surprise? April 5 happens to be only 8 weeks away.
"Bk is a last resort not consider it yet (oh boy, that's code folks and not the kind one wants to hear)..." Really? There is a code out there? It seems strange that in my 30 years of investing and listening to conference calls, that I missed that one. Any other code words I should be aware of? CEO Pfeffer cannot rule out bankruptcy. There isn't a single CEO who would rule it out. Bankrupcy (among MANY other risks) is written into virtually 100% of annual 10-K filing for every corporation in the country. The disclaimer is for legal protection. Jay Olson wanted to make MannKind's CEO squirm and so he forced the bankruptcy question on him, even though Matt had answered the very same question earlier in his addressing the Retail Q&A's. Code word? The only code I know of is the unspoken risk that comes with every investment.
So, from his "financial point of view", davinci (and apparently you) BK - which I take to be an acronym for "bankruptcy" - in 2016 appear inevitable. --
Not inevitable...but becoming more and more likely but perhaps not before some kind of financial arrangement, i.e. dilution, more debt, or more positively, an international partnership or sanofi settlement payment
"No partners, no cash infusion, and at a time when they desperately need to get sales rolling mnkd's hands are tied for the next couple of months." - Let's change that to 1 new partner. There remain many options for cash infusion, including our new partner who, Matt previously stated at the JPM Conference, may provide the first milestone payment before EOY if drug development progresses well. I also think the words "they desperately need" are inflammatory. Sales (paltry as they are) will continue until the EDT when rights transfer. Between now and then, MannKind will be negotiating with ex-U.S. regional partners (meaning large initial sales orders get placed for initial stocking of national/regional inventories) and they will be hiring a good marketing executive who will put together the e-Campaign so that it's ready to roll when Afrezza is returned.
That's not desperate-sounding to me. It's simply making up for lost time caused by Sanofi.
Finally, this conference was unlike any other. Rough around the edges, yes, but it was primarily intended to show retail investors that their voices matter. Only don't expect MannKind's new CEO to listen to you for very long if your message to him is that "bankruptcy is inevitable".
It simply isn't and that's my point of view, for whatever it's worth.
Good fortune to all.
Can't find anything else in your post i really disagree with MN, but rather feel Mannkinds situation is more precarious than do you. Safe to guess that all kinds of discussions are ongoing. With suppliers, with debt holders, with potential partners, with Sanofi, with investment banks, with potential buyers, with hiring a marketing executive and perhaps other high level executives. That's a lot of big needs, by a leadership team not only in transition, but under the gun. With vultures awaiting picking up assets for pennies on the dollar under Section 363 of the code. Are you're saying bankruptcy isn't even a probability in the next 6 months? Or do you just consider it remote? |
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 4, 2016 8:58:26 GMT -5
I consider it a remote possibility. One cannot rule it out. The definition of the word "inevitable" is that it is "certain to happen" and "unavoidable". I would have had no beef if davinci had said he thinks BK is a strong possibility. But he choice to state that BK in 2016 is inevitable. I happen to think that bankruptcy is not certain to happen and that it is entirely avoidable.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2016 9:32:31 GMT -5
No one should read this. Everyone should listen. I read and listened over again. I felt ok when reading it but didnt feel the same when I listened a second time. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Feb 4, 2016 9:41:08 GMT -5
No one should read this. Everyone should listen. I read and listened over again. I felt ok when reading it but didnt feel the same when I listened a second time. Transcripts can not convey how Matt seemed to be on the defensive and reflect his nervous tone. Again, Mannkind proves that it is always capable of screwing up things that shouldn't be screwed up. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2016 10:24:54 GMT -5
No one should read this. Everyone should listen. I read and listened over again. I felt ok when reading it but didnt feel the same when I listened a second time. Transcripts can not convey how Matt seemed to be on the defensive and reflect his nervous tone. Again, Mannkind proves that it is always capable of screwing up things that shouldn't be screwed up. Everyone talks about the BK but JPM came out firing and its a question that all of us have. I appreciated the question |
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Post by hankscorpio7 on Feb 4, 2016 10:28:27 GMT -5
I consider it a remote possibility. One cannot rule it out. The definition of the word "inevitable" is that it is "certain to happen" and "unavoidable". I would have had no beef if davinci had said he thinks BK is a strong possibility. But he choice to state that BK in 2016 is inevitable. I happen to think that bankruptcy is not certain to happen and that it is entirely avoidable. He knew definition of inevitable. Labeling it as FUD is half the problem with this board and should not be coming from a moderator. It is davinci's opinion and apparently it is strong enough for him to use "inevitable". I hope THIS time, he is incorrect. Shall we evaluate your use of the word "remote" and your record of premonition? |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 4, 2016 10:30:29 GMT -5
About a year ago people were holding flags up high cheering on Sanofi. Today some of the same people are talking BK.What have I learned from all of this? The market is ridiculously unpredictable and fickle. Take everything with a grain of salt and have faith in the science. Tough situation indeed. But I think somehow we are going to pull through. Too much of a good thing not to. I applaud Matt for his efforts. Things are brewing in the background. Its always a waiting game with this company, isn't it?  I was one that... - Before Adcom said I believed highly likely we'd get majority approval vote (correct) - After Adcom said I was nearly certain we'd get approval (correct) - After approval said I was certain we'd get a BP partner (correct) - After partnership was cheering and said SNY was probably the best we could have hoped for (oh how terribly wrong) So now the analytical side of me realizes that we are at high risk of insolvency (my own small business has more months operating cash than MNKD). I do believe the science but I also realize that it is only part of the equation. It appears that where I was blindsided in the past was believing in the science without recognizing that other realities such as potential threat to SNY even with their small share of prandial and the changing situation with formularies where patient are increasingly denied access to good therapies. Markets are fickle, but at least for me, that is not something I'm worrying about. Bank accounts aren't fickle. That is where my worry lies. |
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Post by taylor810dn on Feb 4, 2016 10:44:45 GMT -5
Matt brought it up because the purpose of the call was to update the public/share holders on developments and to answer questions/concerns that they have. Undoubtedly there were plenty of questions about BK because that has been the main weapon for the shorts attacking MNKD. He was doing what he has been requested to do, nothing more. And of course that will be twisted and distorted to the Nth degree to create bashing material, just like another perfect example today--Adam F. of Motley writing an article to bash MNKD for a twitter account error, the petty and pathetic bashing attempts have reached a new low, and one look around this board shows some are right there with Adam F.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2016 10:52:12 GMT -5
I consider it a remote possibility. One cannot rule it out. The definition of the word "inevitable" is that it is "certain to happen" and "unavoidable". I would have had no beef if davinci had said he thinks BK is a strong possibility. But he choice to state that BK in 2016 is inevitable. I happen to think that bankruptcy is not certain to happen and that it is entirely avoidable. He knew definition of inevitable. Labeling it as FUD is half the problem with this board and should not be coming from a moderator. It is davinci's opinion and apparently it is strong enough for him to use "inevitable". I hope THIS time, he is incorrect. Shall we evaluate your use of the word "remote" and your record of premonition? I have to agree with you that Davinci's opinion is not fud its def a possibility. One I hope that does not come true. I came across an old thread the other day where Mnholdem stated a billion in sales the first year was a possibility. I remember a thread in December from him about SNY piloting Afrezza before a buyout. Everyone's got opinions but Mnholdem should def chillout with labeling FUD especially when his predictions have been far from a reality. However those are his opinions and he is entitled to them. If you dont like a posters comments then block them. I have blocked delusional longs and since I am not a ray of sunshine for those that are they are better of blocking me too. No feelings hurt. After listening to the call numerous (which made me want to sell) times and reading it once (which made me want to buy more) I am pretty shocked that we are only down 1.5% |
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