I am not a financial expert and not a drug or biotech expert. I work as Operation mgr and my degree is in Quantum Mechanics-Physics
So I am trying to analyse only logics and not technical and financial because I cannot.
First logic: Every DD done by us, even with deep Biotech experience or CEO experience or Fiancial degree or logic experience, since few time ago was WRONG ! meaning everyone who bought (and kept obviously) shares at a price more then 2$ (and even less, I can say) had a failure in his DD (and what a failure it was my DD) .
Anycase now We have to think about the question in the title of the thread, meaning now I have to keep ? I ve to sell ? buying more ? because a BO is something that, in my opinion, has nothing to do with us or with any DD. So can MNKD survive, is the real title and question.
I, personal, believe that the opportunity, now, are increased comparing the situation for example in March 2014. Why March 2014 ? That's because it was the time for me when I decided to enter with consistent money in MNKD
In March 2014 MNKD closed Q1 with 35 million cash and the same 25 million to be kept (loan f. same as today) and a burning rate of more then 35 million per quarter.
The adcom was not yet achieved (just for one day) and, except the "swing" of the night before the ADCOM, PPS was around 6$. (imagine my welcome in MNKD ? Bought around 6, after few time it was at 4, and one day later opening at 7)
Company Capital was more then 2 Billion
instead of BK the question was about dilution just waiting for ADCOM approval and partnership.
What We have less, today:
1- Now dilution is not a nice alternative, at least not at 95 cents per share, and not in the free market as market perception has been distroyed by a continuous and coordinated job done "frindly" and powerful people.
2- We know that the label is not the best label We could expect
3- We know that a big pharma tryed with no success to commercialize Afrezza
4- We know that the cartel is real and powerful
5- We know insurance coverage is hard to achieve
6- not big chances to have another BP (at least big in Diabetes market) to believe and commercialize succesfully Afrezza
7- very strong time delay in getting some from Afrezza (I personally realized late that even for a Blockbuster it is needed around 5 years to reach the Billion sales stauts + delay due to Sanofi drop)
8 - Alfred Mann disappeared
What We have more, today
1 - More cash (that's ridicoulous statement but it is so, at least comparing to March 2014)
2 - Less burning rate
3 - Afrezza approved
4 - More experience in market penetration with our label, costs and insurance problems
5 - No claims from patients (up to what We know)
6 - seems good feeling from patients (up to what we know, thanks Spiro too)
7 - a little patient base to start from (not start from 0)
8 - some more studies done, (waiting for June)
9 - much and much more informaion about TS
10 - first agreemnt on TS that should bring cash by EOD
11 - TS mission to be open source (personally I like it so much !)
12 - A better, and much more experienced and focused, management team (my feeling)
Now every though (correction or addition) on less and more are wellcome.
Now some concerns about some points on my list
on the less:
point 8 is terrible because it was one of the most important point for me to enter the investment. But Who knows ?
point 7 is very hard and it is the strongest point. No way Afrezza could lead in the short term TS pipeline
point 3,4 and 5 and very linked together and one could esclude the others from the list
point 1 is not good but acceptable. to get 100 million from the market I will loose a 25% of the future
I stay silent on the plus list.
Today I hold. It can survive