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Post by mbseeking on Feb 5, 2016 22:23:55 GMT -5
K. Feel their options are very limited now. When Matt first spoke as CEO he spoke of cutting the price of Afrezza. This has about the only chance for them to continue as a going concern IMO. He noticeably did not mentioned that on the CC from the 3rd and I guess its due to waiting for the handover from SNY in April. I tend to agree that this is not about marketing now: rather its price and getting Afrezza onto some plans. The claims (FDA approved) they can currently make are too weak , they have no money for substantive further trials to change that.. so all they can do is cut the price and presumably some payers will start including them. Though there is no guarantee of the latter , that is where Matt should be focusing.. those discussions with the payers.
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Post by mnkdorbust on Feb 5, 2016 22:46:52 GMT -5
Can't wait for Baba & Spiro to make a nationwide tour in that! For extra attention they can go on a bank robbery spree.... After that a LA police chase where it's broadcasted live on all news outlets. You can't pay for media coverage like that
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Post by falconquest on Feb 6, 2016 6:50:50 GMT -5
Can't wait for Baba & Spiro to make a nationwide tour in that! For extra attention they can go on a bank robbery spree.... After that a LA police chase where it's broadcasted live on all news outlets. You can't pay for media coverage like that Speaking of Spiro, we haven't seen him here in a while. I know he was headed off on vacation or something. I miss hearing what Spiro says.
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Post by liane on Feb 6, 2016 7:04:47 GMT -5
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Post by vestful on Feb 6, 2016 7:43:26 GMT -5
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Post by prvs on Feb 6, 2016 8:16:53 GMT -5
Informative opinions will be appreciated. Short answer - yep, mnkd can indeed survive. Stop reading here if good enough, or, read on for my thoughts on the subject. Steps to survival - mnkd needs to survive at least 5 yrs or more and during those years get the trials done or moving forward to completion, work out a plan to get the most sales for the least cost, reduce expenses to match available cash/debt, and continue to work afrezza into the mindset of a few docs and a few patients at a time. A grass roots approach. Keep it low cost while building a base. SNY tried it and this is what they produced. Unless mnkd gets a pile of cash, they will have to do the same slog. MNKD can survive without a BO just like any other entity - if expenses can be reduced to match income. At this point it's pretty clear that there's been reductions in mnkd's workforce from top to bottom. That's a good start. In the last two CC's, matt points out what they can do for very little cost (skeptical on that but, for now, but ok). All good ideas given their situation. But sales as they are will not cover mnkd's monthly nut no matter how much they cut expenses largely due to costs out of their control (FDA required trials, marketing/sales costs, manufacturing costs to name a few). They will need to increase sales. Rough number crunching suggests mnkd needs revs around 300 mil to cover their monthly burn rate of 8-10 mil. Less rev requirements if they can cut costs deeper. So, what happens in the interim while sales are ramping up? Debt or other cash raising events. I believe this is where the trouble is for mnkd. MNKD is already in a deal with the devil (deerfield - which, by the way, is not a wells fargo or citibank, they are a small step above loan sharks for the biotech industry), they have already tried to raise money in more traditional ways and met significant market resistance, the tase event was very unusual (details for another post as to why), no cash generating partnerships are appearing, and until we learn otherwise it would appear al is on the sidelines. Anyone thinking mnkd could issue more shares in their current condition is in for an education in business finance. Any loans will likely require collateral given the poor sales of afrezza and I'm pretty sure they are mostly tapped out of assets to put up as collateral. So where does the debt come from to move forward beyond 2016? At some point when a company runs out of cash/debt, that's pretty much it. Time to file BK and either restructure or simply sell off all remaining assets and dissolve. Matt says they have plenty of cash but that's all smokescreen from the very guy who can't say anything else other than they have plenty of cash. Where the cash comes from to continue moving forward beyond 2016 is why the stock is trading where it's trading and until that question is resolved, the weight around mnkd's neck will remain. To the idea that online advertising will fix mnkd's "get the word" out problem, not likely and in a more direct way, just not possible. Docs don't take their cue's from online advertising, nor should they, and people are quickly becoming more and more numb to all those ads popping up when simply trying to surf their favorite websites. Adding to that, there's a significant amount of education required to use afrezza vs popping a pill which requires help from a doc. And lets not forget that online advertising won't solve the insurance coverage issue or out of pocket expenses vs competing insulins. And while saying that mnkd can reduce the pricing (which I have advocated long before the launch), pricing alone isn't the answer nor is it the whole problem. For starters, if there's any signs that that approach is taking hold ALL competitors will simply reduce the price of their products and attempt to run mnkd out of business so they can raise their prices later on. Can mnkd survive a price war?
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Post by mindovermatter on Feb 6, 2016 9:04:33 GMT -5
Informative opinions will be appreciated. Short answer - yep, mnkd can indeed survive. Stop reading here if good enough, or, read on for my thoughts on the subject. Steps to survival - mnkd needs to survive at least 5 yrs or more and during those years get the trials done or moving forward to completion, work out a plan to get the most sales for the least cost, reduce expenses to match available cash/debt, and continue to work afrezza into the mindset of a few docs and a few patients at a time. A grass roots approach. Keep it low cost while building a base. SNY tried it and this is what they produced. Unless mnkd gets a pile of cash, they will have to do the same slog. MNKD can survive without a BO just like any other entity - if expenses can be reduced to match income. At this point it's pretty clear that there's been reductions in mnkd's workforce from top to bottom. That's a good start. In the last two CC's, matt points out what they can do for very little cost (skeptical on that but, for now, but ok). All good ideas given their situation. But sales as they are will not cover mnkd's monthly nut no matter how much they cut expenses largely due to costs out of their control (FDA required trials, marketing/sales costs, manufacturing costs to name a few). They will need to increase sales. Rough number crunching suggests mnkd needs revs around 300 mil to cover their monthly burn rate of 8-10 mil. Less rev requirements if they can cut costs deeper. So, what happens in the interim while sales are ramping up? Debt or other cash raising events. I believe this is where the trouble is for mnkd. MNKD is already in a deal with the devil (deerfield - which, by the way, is not a wells fargo or citibank, they are a small step above loan sharks for the biotech industry), they have already tried to raise money in more traditional ways and met significant market resistance, the tase event was very unusual (details for another post as to why), no cash generating partnerships are appearing, and until we learn otherwise it would appear al is on the sidelines. Anyone thinking mnkd could issue more shares in their current condition is in for an education in business finance. Any loans will likely require collateral given the poor sales of afrezza and I'm pretty sure they are mostly tapped out of assets to put up as collateral. So where does the debt come from to move forward beyond 2016? At some point when a company runs out of cash/debt, that's pretty much it. Time to file BK and either restructure or simply sell off all remaining assets and dissolve. Matt says they have plenty of cash but that's all smokescreen from the very guy who can't say anything else other than they have plenty of cash. Where the cash comes from to continue moving forward beyond 2016 is why the stock is trading where it's trading and until that question is resolved, the weight around mnkd's neck will remain. To the idea that online advertising will fix mnkd's "get the word" out problem, not likely and in a more direct way, just not possible. Docs don't take their cue's from online advertising, nor should they, and people are quickly becoming more and more numb to all those ads popping up when simply trying to surf their favorite websites. Adding to that, there's a significant amount of education required to use afrezza vs popping a pill which requires help from a doc. And lets not forget that online advertising won't solve the insurance coverage issue or out of pocket expenses vs competing insulins. And while saying that mnkd can reduce the pricing (which I have advocated long before the launch), pricing alone isn't the answer nor is it the whole problem. For starters, if there's any signs that that approach is taking hold ALL competitors will simply reduce the price of their products and attempt to run mnkd out of business so they can raise their prices later on. Can mnkd survive a price war? Mannkind's 2nd choice CEO has alluded to the strategy of selling Afrezza in volume to one or a few foreign nations to help its cause while it tries to establish a US foothold for the drug. We will have to wait to see if this works. I do not expect Mannkind to find a suitable partner again for Afrezza until Mannkind can show there is a marker for it in the US. I also think Mannkind should work with a Mexican Cartel to develop safer inhaled illegal drugs on the side to help its cash flow issue. I know for a fact a junkie would rather inhale than inject. Customers that OD are not good for business
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Post by suebeeee1 on Feb 6, 2016 11:23:09 GMT -5
Can't wait for Baba & Spiro to make a nationwide tour in that! For extra attention they can go on a bank robbery spree.... Without a doubt, we need the cash!
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Post by monger on Feb 8, 2016 11:51:43 GMT -5
I also think Mannkind should work with a Mexican Cartel to develop safer inhaled illegal drugs on the side to help its cash flow issue. I know for a fact a junkie would rather inhale than inject. Customers that OD are not good for business I think you nailed it. The secretive Seattle Outfit? The reason they're located in Seattle is to throw everyone off. They wanted to get as far away as possible from the southern border so no one would suspect. Had they located in San Diego, it would have been too obvious. :-)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2016 11:58:31 GMT -5
I also think Mannkind should work with a Mexican Cartel to develop safer inhaled illegal drugs on the side to help its cash flow issue. I know for a fact a junkie would rather inhale than inject. Customers that OD are not good for business I think you nailed it. The secretive Seattle Outfit? The reason they're located in Seattle is to throw everyone off. They wanted to get as far away as possible from the southern border so no one would suspect. Had they located in San Diego, it would have been too obvious. :-) I think Seattle has a huge herion problem. Maybe mindover is on to something....lol
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Post by compound26 on Feb 8, 2016 12:09:43 GMT -5
Here is what Matt said in his 3 Feb presentation:
Now regarding international expansion, PRIOR TO SIGNING THE AGREEMENT WITH SANOFI, MANNKIND WAS IN DISCUSSIONS WITH MULTIPLE INTERNATIONAL GROUPS REPRESENTING SUBSTANTIAL REGIONAL MARKETS. THOSE DISCUSSIONS HAVE NOW BEEN RESTARTED in RECENT WEEKS with our priority being THOSE REGIONS in which we can use our U.S. approval as a basis for regulatory submission without additional trials. As these plans firm up, we’ll be sharing them with you.
And we did say an important part of our strategy is to go back into some of those foreign markets specifically where there’s no new clinical trials required and try to capture some volume quickly there, because we know the product is very volume-sensitive from a cost to goods standpoint. And in order to make it more profitable everywhere, especially in the U.S., we need to get the volume up relatively quickly and that’s a good way to get your margins up quickly too. So, it’s kind of a win-win for us. It doesn’t mean we wouldn’t consider some jurisdictions that have clinical trials required, in fact I know for a fact WE’RE TALKING TO AT LEAST ONE WHERE IT PROBABLY WILL BE. But our focus is really on trying to get things where we can GET A DEAL DONE QUICKLY AND START SELLING THE PRODUCT IN A FOREIGN JURISDICTION. SO YOU WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME STUFF FROM US I HOPE FAIRLY QUICKLY but I would be reluctant to commit to a specific timeline because I’m sure Ray will kick me under the table if I do.
Here is my interpretation of Matt's statement:
1. There are certainly partners there that are interested in partnering with Mannkind at this moment (despite Sanofi's election to terminate its partnership);
2. While the Sanofi's partnership agreement restricts Mannking from doing a lot of things (talking to insurance or submit new appilcations) during the current transition period, it does not appear to restrict Mannkind's ability to talk to other partners right now. Sanofi's is license is non-exclusive during the transition period.
3. Mannkind probably is in discussions with several regional partners about partnership right now;
4. One of the partners in discussion is for either EU or Japan, as that jurisdiction requires additional trials;
5. Mannkind probably will be able to announce an international partnership for Afrezza by 5 April (as Matt said Mannkind will hold a conference call when the transition of Afrezza back to Mannkind is effective);
6. If remains to be seen whether Mannkind will get any upfront fee from such partnerships. But I would expect Mannkind to offer to lower its share of profits for exchange of some upfront fee; and
7. If indeed one of the partners in discussion is for either EU or Japan, I would expect such partnership to include some type of upfront fee as both EU and Japan are substantial markets.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2016 12:39:55 GMT -5
Does anyone know the true cost of the clinical trials? Matt has doged the question and not given it a $$ amount during the conference call or JPM conference. He keeps saying it wont be much. But I have read differently however I have no idea if what I have read has an agenda of some sort
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2016 12:47:29 GMT -5
Does anyone know the true cost of the clinical trials? Matt has doged the question and not given it a $$ amount during the conference call or JPM conference. He keeps saying it wont be much. But I have read differently however I have no idea if what I have read has an agenda of some sort pediatric trial is 46 patients.. that would be minimal - 20 to 25K per enrolled patient? 1 to 2 mil? the biggest cost is the safety trial - but that doesnt start until later in the year
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Post by nylefty on Feb 8, 2016 13:24:58 GMT -5
I'm sure I'll be shouted down by the bashers for posting the following, but here's how MNKD stock has done in the past 30 days compared to biotechs in general:
MNKD: UP 33.93 percent IBB: DOWN 18.12 percent
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2016 13:29:13 GMT -5
I'm sure I'll be shouted down by the bashers for posting the following, but here's how MNKD stock has done in the past 30 days compared to biotechs in general: MNKD: UP 33.93 percent IBB: DOWN 18.12 percent only if you started a position in the last 30 days and I dont need to even bash.. true
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