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Post by stevil on Feb 5, 2016 12:19:00 GMT -5
For any partnership to be worthwhile for us, the milestones would have to reach (just throwing out a number) $500 million or so. So you can put that directly toward the acquisition cost. Throwing out another number of $2billion to acquire it, if milestones reached $500 million worthy, it means the drug was doing well. So they can partner and make 85-90% profit, or they can wait and make 100% for the life of the drug by waiting a little longer. If I was a CEO, I'd wait. unless you are the only one in the line waiting.. I usually tend to pay fair value for what I want with in my means and get done with it rather than waiting. That's not how good business is done though. It's the guys who can swindle their way into the best deals that make the best businessmen. Negotiation skills are what separate the good from the elite in my opinion. Case in point- see Apple and Samsung. They're notorious for screwing their partners. They pay them pennies on margin because they can. Same with Walmart. Their partners don't enjoy the profits. They basically say, we'll give you like $0.03 profit per unit sold. If you don't like it, we'll find someone else who will. MNKD doesn't have that bargaining power right now... Anyway, don't want to argue with you... There may be others waiting in line, but they haven't knocked each other over trying to reach a deal with us. So it's hard to know how much interest, if any, there really is. One would have to assume there either isn't much interest or the sharks have smelled blood in the water for some time and are just circling us waiting for us to go belly up. Just my opinion.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2016 12:32:19 GMT -5
unless you are the only one in the line waiting.. I usually tend to pay fair value for what I want with in my means and get done with it rather than waiting. That's not how good business is done though. It's the guys who can swindle their way into the best deals that make the best businessmen. Negotiation skills are what separate the good from the elite in my opinion. Case in point- see Apple and Samsung. They're notorious for screwing their partners. They pay them pennies on margin because they can. Same with Walmart. Their partners don't enjoy the profits. They basically say, we'll give you like $0.03 profit per unit sold. If you don't like it, we'll find someone else who will. MNKD doesn't have that bargaining power right now... Anyway, don't want to argue with you... There may be others waiting in line, but they haven't knocked each other over trying to reach a deal with us. So it's hard to know how much interest, if any, there really is. One would have to assume there either isn't much interest or the sharks have smelled blood in the water for some time and are just circling us waiting for us to go belly up. Just my opinion. different context/scenario
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topcard
Newbie
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Sentiment: Long
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Post by topcard on Feb 5, 2016 13:07:49 GMT -5
Without a buyout (full or Afrezza only) or a partnership? No - I do not think they can survive.
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Post by stevil on Feb 5, 2016 13:15:41 GMT -5
That's not how good business is done though. It's the guys who can swindle their way into the best deals that make the best businessmen. Negotiation skills are what separate the good from the elite in my opinion. Case in point- see Apple and Samsung. They're notorious for screwing their partners. They pay them pennies on margin because they can. Same with Walmart. Their partners don't enjoy the profits. They basically say, we'll give you like $0.03 profit per unit sold. If you don't like it, we'll find someone else who will. MNKD doesn't have that bargaining power right now... Anyway, don't want to argue with you... There may be others waiting in line, but they haven't knocked each other over trying to reach a deal with us. So it's hard to know how much interest, if any, there really is. One would have to assume there either isn't much interest or the sharks have smelled blood in the water for some time and are just circling us waiting for us to go belly up. Just my opinion. different context/scenario I never realized how argumentative I was until I joined this board haha. Go ahead and pm me if you want to keep talking about it. The point I was making is that good business isn't paying full or even fair value for what something is worth. It's about paying as little as possible for it and keeping all the profit for yourself.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2016 13:19:01 GMT -5
different context/scenario I never realized how argumentative I was until I joined this board haha. Go ahead and pm me if you want to keep talking about it. The point I was making is that good business isn't paying full or even fair value for what something is worth. It's about paying as little as possible for it and keeping all the profit for yourself. I still stand by the same : different context/scenario . We are deviating from our original discussion
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2016 13:21:23 GMT -5
unless you are the only one in the line waiting.. I usually tend to pay fair value for what I want with in my means and get done with it rather than waiting. That's not how good business is done though. It's the guys who can swindle their way into the best deals that make the best businessmen. Negotiation skills are what separate the good from the elite in my opinion. Case in point- see Apple and Samsung. They're notorious for screwing their partners. They pay them pennies on margin because they can. Same with Walmart. Their partners don't enjoy the profits. They basically say, we'll give you like $0.03 profit per unit sold. If you don't like it, we'll find someone else who will. MNKD doesn't have that bargaining power right now... Anyway, don't want to argue with you... There may be others waiting in line, but they haven't knocked each other over trying to reach a deal with us. So it's hard to know how much interest, if any, there really is. One would have to assume there either isn't much interest or the sharks have smelled blood in the water for some time and are just circling us waiting for us to go belly up. Just my opinion. You have two parties : Samsung/Apple Suppliers Samsung /apple can go to suppliers and squeeze them saying they can go to alternate suppliers. In case of Afrezza there is no choice. AFrezza is the ONLY one in the market. So every player should be coming to AFrezza.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2016 14:36:23 GMT -5
Informative opinions will be appreciated. Short answer - yep, mnkd can indeed survive. Stop reading here if good enough, or, read on for my thoughts on the subject. Steps to survival - mnkd needs to survive at least 5 yrs or more and during those years get the trials done or moving forward to completion, work out a plan to get the most sales for the least cost, reduce expenses to match available cash/debt, and continue to work afrezza into the mindset of a few docs and a few patients at a time. A grass roots approach. Keep it low cost while building a base. SNY tried it and this is what they produced. Unless mnkd gets a pile of cash, they will have to do the same slog. MNKD can survive without a BO just like any other entity - if expenses can be reduced to match income. At this point it's pretty clear that there's been reductions in mnkd's workforce from top to bottom. That's a good start. In the last two CC's, matt points out what they can do for very little cost (skeptical on that but, for now, but ok). All good ideas given their situation. But sales as they are will not cover mnkd's monthly nut no matter how much they cut expenses largely due to costs out of their control (FDA required trials, marketing/sales costs, manufacturing costs to name a few). They will need to increase sales. Rough number crunching suggests mnkd needs revs around 300 mil to cover their monthly burn rate of 8-10 mil. Less rev requirements if they can cut costs deeper. So, what happens in the interim while sales are ramping up? Debt or other cash raising events. I believe this is where the trouble is for mnkd. MNKD is already in a deal with the devil (deerfield - which, by the way, is not a wells fargo or citibank, they are a small step above loan sharks for the biotech industry), they have already tried to raise money in more traditional ways and met significant market resistance, the tase event was very unusual (details for another post as to why), no cash generating partnerships are appearing, and until we learn otherwise it would appear al is on the sidelines. Anyone thinking mnkd could issue more shares in their current condition is in for an education in business finance. Any loans will likely require collateral given the poor sales of afrezza and I'm pretty sure they are mostly tapped out of assets to put up as collateral. So where does the debt come from to move forward beyond 2016? At some point when a company runs out of cash/debt, that's pretty much it. Time to file BK and either restructure or simply sell off all remaining assets and dissolve. Matt says they have plenty of cash but that's all smokescreen from the very guy who can't say anything else other than they have plenty of cash. Where the cash comes from to continue moving forward beyond 2016 is why the stock is trading where it's trading and until that question is resolved, the weight around mnkd's neck will remain. To the idea that online advertising will fix mnkd's "get the word" out problem, not likely and in a more direct way, just not possible. Docs don't take their cue's from online advertising, nor should they, and people are quickly becoming more and more numb to all those ads popping up when simply trying to surf their favorite websites. Adding to that, there's a significant amount of education required to use afrezza vs popping a pill which requires help from a doc. And lets not forget that online advertising won't solve the insurance coverage issue or out of pocket expenses vs competing insulins. And while saying that mnkd can reduce the pricing (which I have advocated long before the launch), pricing alone isn't the answer nor is it the whole problem. For starters, if there's any signs that that approach is taking hold ALL competitors will simply reduce the price of their products and attempt to run mnkd out of business so they can raise their prices later on. Can mnkd survive a price war?
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Post by kc on Feb 5, 2016 14:37:10 GMT -5
Over the last 30 Day's I have said that this company needs to be sold. we need to have Deep pockets to get Afrezza to the market in the USA and worldwide. I know that Al Mann, the board of directors and Management know this. They can't tell us or discuss it as its a moving situation. Behind the scenes things are happening that will come forward in the next 30+ days. perhaps it takes 180 days. But the ship has sailed. The market knows it. Shares are scarce today for some reason. Perhaps the outcome is going to be know sooner than we know. Otherwise today's trading is just based on the fact its a Friday and nobody wants to be caught over the weekend if there is some type of news Pre-Market Monday. It might not be this Monday but it will be sometime in the future. Retail shorts like us can't do anything accept sit back and wait and hope that its a winner for us as we have held our shares in anticipation of a good return some day from MannKind.
I posted this on the ODD's Thread yesterday and it is applicable for this thread.:
The company will be sold. Everybody including retail shareholders know that they only way to get real funds with out dilution is sell the company or the Product. The company will survive as a wholly owned subsidiary of some big Pharma. Afrezza will become a Blockbuster drug and will be the Gold Standard for treatment for T1D, T2D and Pre-diabetes.
We can't expect to know much more than the can legally disclose as the risks are too great for Shareholder litigation and they want to make sure that they follow all the terms of their agreement with Sanofi so that they can claims any and all damages from Sanofi in a legal action. Both sides are working to mitigate their future exposure to each other. There is much much more going on behind the scenes that we will never know about since we are just retail investors. You either trust the process or get out now. I am solidly trusting they process as this product will be a winner if priced and marketed correctly.
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/5127/odds?page=1#ixzz3zK8qF9Oi
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Post by nylefty on Feb 5, 2016 14:55:47 GMT -5
I posted this on the ODD's Thread yesterday and it is applicable for this thread.:
The company will be sold. Everybody including retail shareholders know that they only way to get real funds with out dilution is sell the company or the Product. The company will survive as a wholly owned subsidiary of some big Pharma. Afrezza will become a Blockbuster drug and will be the Gold Standard for treatment for T1D, T2D and Pre-diabetes.
We can't expect to know much more than the can legally disclose as the risks are too great for Shareholder litigation and they want to make sure that they follow all the terms of their agreement with Sanofi so that they can claims any and all damages from Sanofi in a legal action. Both sides are working to mitigate their future exposure to each other. There is much much more going on behind the scenes that we will never know about since we are just retail investors. You either trust the process or get out now. I am solidly trusting they process as this product will be a winner if priced and marketed correctly.
Why the certainty that "the company" will be sold? Seems to me that it's plausible that only Afrezza will be sold, with Technosphere retained for further development.
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Post by kc on Feb 5, 2016 16:19:45 GMT -5
I posted this on the ODD's Thread yesterday and it is applicable for this thread.:
The company will be sold. Everybody including retail shareholders know that they only way to get real funds with out dilution is sell the company or the Product. The company will survive as a wholly owned subsidiary of some big Pharma. Afrezza will become a Blockbuster drug and will be the Gold Standard for treatment for T1D, T2D and Pre-diabetes.
We can't expect to know much more than the can legally disclose as the risks are too great for Shareholder litigation and they want to make sure that they follow all the terms of their agreement with Sanofi so that they can claims any and all damages from Sanofi in a legal action. Both sides are working to mitigate their future exposure to each other. There is much much more going on behind the scenes that we will never know about since we are just retail investors. You either trust the process or get out now. I am solidly trusting they process as this product will be a winner if priced and marketed correctly.
Why the certainty that "the company" will be sold? Seems to me that it's plausible that only Afrezza will be sold, with Technosphere retained for further development. I agree that might be the situation. It makes more sense for the entire enterprise to be sold and that would have more value. Perhaps the company sold for a specific share value and that the buy also assigns some future rights to the shareholders. But that would be uncommon when you can just issue either a cash amount per share or give the shareholders the sellers stock. Most transactions would just be a stock transaction.
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Post by stevil on Feb 5, 2016 17:29:19 GMT -5
Why the certainty that "the company" will be sold? Seems to me that it's plausible that only Afrezza will be sold, with Technosphere retained for further development. I think if Matt has this option presented to him, and gets a decent valuation for Afrezza, this is probably what he would prefer to do. I don't think anyone at MNKD wants a buyout, and honestly, neither do I as I don't think we'll get anywhere near what we're worth if we have to go that route. I think the best case is to unload Afrezza and hope that it will give us at least 3 more years worth of survival to develop other prospects and reach milestones in our new deal which hopefully could then get us to that 5 year mark.
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Post by brentie on Feb 5, 2016 17:47:11 GMT -5
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Post by stevil on Feb 5, 2016 17:49:01 GMT -5
haha at first I thought that that was a really silly (but impractical) idea, but you know what, that might be exactly the kind of stuff that we need. Because it would give us a ton of free pub. It would draw a lot of attention that news outlets would want to cover it and it may even go nationwide.
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Post by longinvstr on Feb 5, 2016 18:12:19 GMT -5
Looks like it'd be an easy Airstream (to Dreamboat) conversion - yuck, yuck www.airstream.com/Perhaps there are some cross-promotion opportunities
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Post by bradleysbest on Feb 5, 2016 18:20:35 GMT -5
Can't wait for Baba & Spiro to make a nationwide tour in that! For extra attention they can go on a bank robbery spree....
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