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Post by tripoley on May 10, 2016 10:56:51 GMT -5
If we only need 12.7k scripts per week to break-even, we can get there in 4 weeks following ramp-up: 6000 scripts per week (1 per endo per week) and half (3000 patients) stay on it. 3000X4 = 12k users. If ramp-up takes 3 months (July/August/September), we can be break-even in Q4. now you see the extent of the sandbagging that SNY was doing to MNKD! We peaked at 627 scripts on 10/23 and then it just fell off after that. Still doing about 300 per week with no effort whatsoever. I think SNY is about to be shown for the joke that they are.
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Post by factspls88 on May 10, 2016 11:43:11 GMT -5
how about this one... wholesale estimate for 1 month supply is $220 need $12M to break even per month 12M/30 days/$220 per script*7 days a week = 12, 727 scripts a week needed to break even. that breaks down to about less than 3 scripts per 5000 docs per week... When you do a breakeven calc you need to take cost of goods out of your revenue number. I have no idea what kind of gross margin Afrezza generates but it will be low given that volume will be low.
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Post by factspls88 on May 10, 2016 11:47:56 GMT -5
what we know from the cc 5000-7000 high prescribing endo/physicians, each see 20-50 patients a day. 60-70 sales staff lets take some worst cast scenarios - 50 sales staff and 5000 docs, will take 100 days to hit all 5000 docs. if each of them prescribe 1/2 of the lowest number 20 patients a day... 5000x10 patientsx90daysx$250 per script = $1.125B for 90 days. though we have seen from the script sheets that the average is somewhere around $500 per script which would put the number at $2.25B for 90 days. We only have 3 lines in the factory currently and each script could be either 90/180/270 carts... max of 30m cart if all 3 lines active... or 90m cart for 90 days... this equates to about 330k 90cart script boxes... The above 5000x10x90=4.5m scripts... the plant at full lines can't do this volume! Respectfully, I think physicians writing scripts for 50% of their patients per day is wildly optimistic. I would guess that they would start out with only a few per week until they got sufficient feedback from their patients regarding efficacy.... factspls
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Post by laffs4sale on May 10, 2016 11:55:05 GMT -5
A few per week per endo would be a bonanza for Mannkind. I hope your go-it-slow scenario comes to fruition.
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Post by curiousdoc on May 10, 2016 11:55:22 GMT -5
I also find these numbers HIGHLY optimistic. Are we to assume all prior authorization and spirometry road blocks are completely resolved? No.
Sanofi may have been sandbagging, but they were still visiting endos, even as few as it may have been. Granted, they were pushing Touejo more than Afrezza but they were still there.
Not only do the new reps have to deal with the huge volume of docs they are tasked with seeing, they have to overcome all the negative publicity surrounding this drug in the Endo community. You could argue this is MORE difficult than an initial roll out for a drug docs know nothing about.
There is a lot of negative inertia surrounding these script numbers. It also doesn't look like anything presented at ADA will be sufficient enough for label changes or to push endocrinologists off their established management algorithms for any patient with half way decent control.
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Post by ilovekauai on May 10, 2016 12:02:47 GMT -5
Least we forget...100% of the profits now go to MNKD! No more 35% cut. I never did like that arrangement, even less so when it became apparent late last summer that Sanofi was sandbagging us, turning many here, (including me!), into bag holders. But hey guess what, I'm adding this morning. SP is too attractive. I believe in the long term future success of MNKD & Afrezza.
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Post by mydogskip on May 10, 2016 14:06:38 GMT -5
Least we forget...100% of the profits now go to MNKD! No more 35% cut. I never did like that arrangement, even less so when it became apparent late last summer that Sanofi was sandbagging us, turning many here, (including me!), into bag holders. But hey guess what, I'm adding this morning. SP is too attractive. I believe in the long term future success of MNKD & Afrezza. 100% profit is great when you are selling a product. That hasn't yet happened yet and it remains to be seen how well Mannkind will be able to do that on their own considering the still present obstacles it faces. And remember the goal is Net revenue not profit. And also remember that Mannkind will not be making any profit unless you are convinced that sales will exceed expenses and the company will report postive net revenue. I am not convinced that will happen until 2018 based on the slow adoption rates of Afrezza.
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Post by tingtongtung on May 10, 2016 14:07:18 GMT -5
Don't get me wrong. I'm a long with heavy loss. And, I believe in Afrezza.
How is it even possible for the weekly scripts to be <150? Sorry - I'm not in medical field. But, don't the endos/Dr talk with each other to learn about the new drug? Forget about rural areas. Even if only the endos who are in the very urban areas of LAX, SAN, NYC, and Florida prescribe, the numbers should be more than 150. Do the Drs really not prescribe some medicines by taking money from others (say Sanofi, Merck, etc)? If so, how is MNKD going to change it?
I hope it's ignorance (no knowledge of Afrezza) on part of Drs, not full on unethical behavior.
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Post by ilovekauai on May 10, 2016 14:58:12 GMT -5
Good points, and 2018 is fine with me. Also, IMO once sales start, and script counts begin to rebound, that in and of itself will do wonders for the SP, regardless of how the profit is divvied up in the costs. Yes, it's a long road, obstacles remain, and things might not work out, but I believe it's achievable and was encouraged by yesterday's CC. This is why I added today. Aloha.
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Post by peppy on May 10, 2016 15:01:14 GMT -5
what we know from the cc 5000-7000 high prescribing endo/physicians, each see 20-50 patients a day. 60-70 sales staff lets take some worst cast scenarios - 50 sales staff and 5000 docs, will take 100 days to hit all 5000 docs. if each of them prescribe 1/2 of the lowest number 20 patients a day...
5000x10 patientsx90daysx$250 per script = $1.125B for 90 days. though we have seen from the script sheets that the average is somewhere around $500 per script which would put the number at $2.25B for 90 days. We only have 3 lines in the factory currently and each script could be either 90/180/270 carts... max of 30m cart if all 3 lines active... or 90m cart for 90 days... this equates to about 330k 90cart script boxes... The above 5000x10x90=4.5m scripts... the plant at full lines can't do this volume! sales people hitting 5000 docs, being stopped at the door, dropping off samples. Look at Aged's endo group. 12 endos and 6 CDEs in the practice) are not prescribing in New York. These endo's didn't have samples. Ran into the same type of numbers in Minneapolis. Large endo groups advertising how good they are, not prescribing Afrezza. If all of them are doing it, hard to be charged with mal practice. How bizarre, how bizarre. (fast acting subq 3 times a day, Long acting twice a day, times 365 days a year. 1,825 shots per year of chitty acting insulin that we say is control. )
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Post by compound26 on May 10, 2016 15:10:05 GMT -5
Good points, and 2018 is fine with me. Also, IMO once sales start, and script counts begin to rebound, that in and of itself will do wonders for the SP, regardless of how the profit is divvied up in the costs. Yes, it's a long road, obstacles remain, and things might not work out, but I believe it's achievable and was encouraged by yesterday's CC. This is why I added today. Aloha. I also added to my position today with both shares and calls. I believe once Matt and Mike are able to run scripts to 1,500 - 2,000/week level, they will be able to demonstrate that: (a) Sanofi did a really lousy job; (b) Afrezza will be a viable product in the market; and (c) given them enough time, Mannkind will be able to break even with Afrezza sales. As a result of the above, (a) SP will increase to a level whereby Mannkind will be able to do additional ATM/second offering with minimal dilution; (b) partners/strategic investors (domestic and foreign) will emerge; and (c) Sanofi will be motivated to settle if they have not done that by such time. I think scripts of 1,500 - 2,000/week level is very doable if Matt and Mike are able to assemble a motivated team and reduce the price of Afrezza substantially. Not sure how long that will take. If they achieve that goal by the end of 2017, that will be fine to me.
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Post by prvs on May 10, 2016 15:25:07 GMT -5
I wish I could wait until 2017, but I need the sp to go to $5 by the end of this year. Hopefully the salesforce will get us these by Q4 or sooner. I'm thinking by October.
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Post by anderson on May 10, 2016 18:04:32 GMT -5
Good points, and 2018 is fine with me. Also, IMO once sales start, and script counts begin to rebound, that in and of itself will do wonders for the SP, regardless of how the profit is divvied up in the costs. Yes, it's a long road, obstacles remain, and things might not work out, but I believe it's achievable and was encouraged by yesterday's CC. This is why I added today. Aloha. I also added to my position today with both shares and calls. I believe once Matt and Mike are able to run scripts to 1,500 - 2,000/week level, they will be able to demonstrate that: (a) Sanofi did a really lousy job; (b) Afrezza will be a viable product in the market; and (c) given them enough time, Mannkind will be able to break even with Afrezza sales. As a result of the above, (a) SP will increase to a level whereby Mannkind will be able to do additional ATM/second offering with minimal dilution; (b) partners/strategic investors (domestic and foreign) will emerge; and (c) Sanofi will be motivated to settle if they have not done that by such time. I think scripts of 1,500 - 2,000/week level is very doable if Matt and Mike are able to assemble a motivated team and reduce the price of Afrezza substantially. Not sure how long that will take. If they achieve that goal by the end of 2017, that will be fine to me. Just a comment on your point (b) partners/strategic investors, at what point after you build a sales team domestically do you not need a partner? Once we have a sales force that is working well dont we just add more products to their pro-folio instead of partnering? In some Foreign markets(like the middle east) you cant sell directly and have to use a partner, but if things go well I believe MNKD will try to sell direct wherever they can. 15-20 years from now I see MNKD as a BP company.
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Post by curiousdoc on May 10, 2016 19:13:07 GMT -5
Good points, and 2018 is fine with me. Also, IMO once sales start, and script counts begin to rebound, that in and of itself will do wonders for the SP, regardless of how the profit is divvied up in the costs. Yes, it's a long road, obstacles remain, and things might not work out, but I believe it's achievable and was encouraged by yesterday's CC. This is why I added today. Aloha. Paint me the pessimist. I need to vent. I also invested in this drug because I believe in the science. I can honestly say it is "probably" the best drug on the market for controlling diabetics and giving them back a normal life. When patients learn how to use it, the results are remarkable. The stories we see of this are unfortunately exceptions. The majority of patients with diabetes see it as just that; a disease, an annoyance. They don't care about their A1C. They don't care to check their blood sugar with a CGM. They don't care about nor appreciate the health benefits of optimal control. They are perfectly happy taking their pill... especially when in the absence of functional DTC advertising they might not even know this drug exists. Established endos couldn't give two %&$#s about how well this drug can work. I personally know at least 2 diabetics using "old fashioned" insulin shots so well that their A1Cs are also in the 5's. Whether we like it or not, there is NO data behind this drug to warrant changing the medication routine of a decently controlled diabetic. And they will definitely not put new diabetics (II) on an insulin (regardless of form) when the established protocols call for oral medications after lifestyle modification failure. I work at a well known academic medical center and none of the fellows I have talked to have even attempted to prescribe Afrezza. I have friends at other large hospitals with similar results. To be fair, I do know at least 1 primary care doctor that got 2 sample boxes of afrezza months ago, however, her patients couldn't afford the drug. Fact of the matter, this drug has a terrible label and desparately needs some new data behind it to help differentiate it. As for these sales speculations - Our operating costs just went up and our profit margin (despite now getting 100% of revenue) may very well have decreased given the price adjustments. I think you are discounting the climate that drug sales reps face these days. Its not like they just have to visit a doc, and like magic, that doc will start prescribing. I can't see prescriptions even getting close to a break even point before another cash raise to extend the runway. I am all in and riding it until the bitter end. I like the optimistic posts with well thought out numbers behind them. I'd love nothing more than to double my shares at these dirt cheap prices without feeling like I was flushing money down the drain. Unfortunately, I'm not able to get through too many of these posts without the bullshit meter breaking about half way through. Rant over.
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2016 9:17:01 GMT -5
at the rate of 10 to 12 mil burn per month ( 13 mil at the high end ) - equates to 40 mil per quarter.. does this include production - raw material + factory running ( more ) and distribution costs ( relatively minor ) ?
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