Post by peppy on May 11, 2016 9:35:23 GMT -5
Good points, and 2018 is fine with me. Also, IMO once sales start, and script counts begin to rebound, that in and of itself will do wonders for the SP, regardless of how the profit is divvied up in the costs. Yes, it's a long road, obstacles remain, and things might not work out, but I believe it's achievable and was encouraged by yesterday's CC. This is why I added today. Aloha.
I also invested in this drug because I believe in the science. I can honestly say it is "probably" the best drug on the market for controlling diabetics and giving them back a normal life.
When patients learn how to use it, the results are remarkable. The stories we see of this are unfortunately exceptions. The majority of patients with diabetes see it as just that; a disease, an annoyance. They don't care about their A1C. They don't care to check their blood sugar with a CGM. They don't care about nor appreciate the health benefits of optimal control. They are perfectly happy taking their pill... especially when in the absence of functional DTC advertising they might not even know this drug exists.
Established endos couldn't give two %&$#s about how well this drug can work. I personally know at least 2 diabetics using "old fashioned" insulin shots so well that their A1Cs are also in the 5's. Whether we like it or not, there is NO data behind this drug to warrant changing the medication routine of a decently controlled diabetic. And they will definitely not put new diabetics (II) on an insulin (regardless of form) when the established protocols call for oral medications after lifestyle modification failure.
I work at a well known academic medical center and none of the fellows I have talked to have even attempted to prescribe Afrezza. I have friends at other large hospitals with similar results. To be fair, I do know at least 1 primary care doctor that got 2 sample boxes of afrezza months ago, however, her patients couldn't afford the drug.
Fact of the matter, this drug has a terrible label and desparately needs some new data behind it to help differentiate it.
As for these sales speculations - Our operating costs just went up and our profit margin (despite now getting 100% of revenue) may very well have decreased given the price adjustments. I think you are discounting the climate that drug sales reps face these days. Its not like they just have to visit a doc, and like magic, that doc will start prescribing. I can't see prescriptions even getting close to a break even point before another cash raise to extend the runway.
I am all in and riding it until the bitter end. I like the optimistic posts with well thought out numbers behind them. I'd love nothing more than to double my shares at these dirt cheap prices without feeling like I was flushing money down the drain. Unfortunately, I'm not able to get through too many of these posts without the bullshit meter breaking about half way through.
Rant over.
Thanks Doc. The problems in a nut shell.
Established endos couldn't give two %&$#s about how well this drug can work. (My words, how bizzare, how bizzare.)