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Post by maddass98 on May 10, 2016 9:46:55 GMT -5
what we know from the cc
5000-7000 high prescribing endo/physicians, each see 20-50 patients a day.
60-70 sales staff
lets take some worst cast scenarios - 50 sales staff and 5000 docs, will take 100 days to hit all 5000 docs.
if each of them prescribe 1/2 of the lowest number 20 patients a day...
5000x10 patientsx90daysx$250 per script = $1.125B for 90 days. though we have seen from the script sheets that the average is somewhere around $500 per script which would put the number at $2.25B for 90 days.
We only have 3 lines in the factory currently and each script could be either 90/180/270 carts... max of 30m cart if all 3 lines active... or 90m cart for 90 days... this equates to about 330k 90cart script boxes...
The above 5000x10x90=4.5m scripts... the plant at full lines can't do this volume!
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Post by mnkdfann on May 10, 2016 9:52:04 GMT -5
what we know from the cc 5000-7000 high prescribing endo/physicians, each see 20-50 patients a day. 60-70 sales staff lets take some worst cast scenarios - 50 sales staff and 5000 docs, will take 100 days to hit all 5000 docs. if each of them prescribe 1/2 of the lowest number 20 patients a day... Respectfully, sounds closer to 'best case' than 'worst case' to me. |
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Post by bradleysbest on May 10, 2016 9:55:45 GMT -5
For whatever reason (pricing, insurance, education, label, etc...) doctors are not prescribing. The 2.0 plan does sound good just hope we can gain some traction before the cash runs out.
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Post by victoria on May 10, 2016 10:16:28 GMT -5
Personally if we hit 1 script per endo/physician per day I would be very happy for the time being.
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Post by dictatorsaurus on May 10, 2016 10:22:17 GMT -5
Unfortunately number crunching and theories have not materialized positively for Afrezza. They must've realized long ago the drug and situation is much more complicated than management could handle.
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Post by maddass98 on May 10, 2016 10:24:05 GMT -5
how about this one...
wholesale estimate for 1 month supply is $220
need $12M to break even per month
12M/30 days/$220 per script*7 days a week = 12, 727 scripts a week needed to break even. that breaks down to about less than 3 scripts per 5000 docs per week...
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Post by laffs4sale on May 10, 2016 10:26:54 GMT -5
Personally if we hit 1 script per endo/physician per day I would be very happy for the time being. 1 script per week per endo is good enough for me. If 6000 endos write one prescription per week, that's 300k prescriptions in a year. Let's say with better education and lower pricing, half of patients stay on it. That's 150,000 users by Q3 2017 and $450 million in annual sales. I'll take that. |
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Post by tripoley on May 10, 2016 10:37:48 GMT -5
how about this one... wholesale estimate for 1 month supply is $220 need $12M to break even per month 12M/30 days/$220 per script*7 days a week = 12, 727 scripts a week needed to break even. that breaks down to about less than 3 scripts per 5000 docs per week... The real question is what will MNKD get per script from insurance companies? I seem to remember RBC estimated $150-$200 per script. |
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Post by maddass98 on May 10, 2016 10:40:27 GMT -5
how about this one... wholesale estimate for 1 month supply is $220 need $12M to break even per month 12M/30 days/$220 per script*7 days a week = 12, 727 scripts a week needed to break even. that breaks down to about less than 3 scripts per 5000 docs per week... my numbers don't account for refills each subsequent month... this is only for initial month break even... |
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Post by maddass98 on May 10, 2016 10:43:15 GMT -5
how about this one... wholesale estimate for 1 month supply is $220 need $12M to break even per month 12M/30 days/$220 per script*7 days a week = 12, 727 scripts a week needed to break even. that breaks down to about less than 3 scripts per 5000 docs per week... The real question is what will MNKD get per script from insurance companies? I seem to remember RBC estimated $150-$200 per script. even if you use the $150 number, it just means they break even on the 2nd month if you account for 38% refills. |
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Post by laffs4sale on May 10, 2016 10:44:22 GMT -5
If we only need 12.7k scripts per week to break-even, we can get there in 4 weeks following ramp-up: 6000 scripts per week (1 per endo per week) and half (3000 patients) stay on it. 3000X4 = 12k users. If ramp-up takes 3 months (July/August/September), we can be break-even in Q4.
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Post by maddass98 on May 10, 2016 10:46:48 GMT -5
If we only need 12.7k scripts per week to break-even, we can get there in 4 weeks following ramp-up: 6000 scripts per week (1 per endo per week) and half (3000 patients) stay on it. 3000X4 = 12k users. If ramp-up takes 3 months (July/August/September), we can be break-even in Q4. now you see the extent of the sandbagging that SNY was doing to MNKD! |
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Post by uvula on May 10, 2016 10:49:09 GMT -5
First they have to hire the sales reps, and then each one will have to visit 100 endos before we reach 6000 endos. Not all of the endos will be interested in talking to another sales rep about another new drug. We can break even but it is not going to be quick or easy. Things should accelerate after the initial slow climb.
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Post by laffs4sale on May 10, 2016 10:49:33 GMT -5
If we only need 12.7k scripts per week to break-even, we can get there in 4 weeks following ramp-up: 6000 scripts per week (1 per endo per week) and half (3000 patients) stay on it. 3000X4 = 12k users. If ramp-up takes 3 months (July/August/September), we can be break-even in Q4. now you see the extent of the sandbagging that SNY was doing to MNKD! So where's the lawsuit? |
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Post by laffs4sale on May 10, 2016 10:52:01 GMT -5
First they have to hire the sales reps, and then each one will have to visit 100 endos before we reach 6000 endos. Not all of the endos will be interested in talking to another sales rep about another new drug. We can break even but it is not going to be quick or easy. Things should accelerate after the initial slow climb. The sales force will be in place by end of June. 3 months to see 100 endos. True, some endos won't meet with them, but there will be others who will take that business. Building to 6000 scripts per week by October is not unreasonable. The average endo see 200+ patients a week. We only need them to prescribe Afrezza to one of them. |
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