Mike Castagna: We have 4 Field Openings Left. Get word out

[kc]

DADuke38 I agree with you. We will have a dedicated sales force selling one drug vs a lethargic big pharma who sales people were selling multiple drugs and not focused on Afrezza. Afrezza was just another product to sell but not their primary focus.

[bradleysbest]

How soon will the script count rise to the 1000 mark? If we can hit that mark by 1Q-2017 we are off & running! Hopeful that the new MNKD sales team is full of "go getters".

[compound26]

Jun 15, 2016 9:42:41 GMT -5 bradleysbest said:

How soon will the script count rise to the 1000 mark? If we can hit that mark by 1Q-2017 we are off & running! Hopeful that the new MNKD sales team is full of "go getters".

That will require each sales representative to produce 2 new scripts a day, which translates to 10 new scripts a week. Times that with 70 sales representative, you get 700 new scripts per week.  Add that to 200-300 renewals, you get about 900 to 1,000 total scripts. 

On average, will each sales representative be able to produce 2 new scripts a day by 1Q-2017? 

[longinvstr]

Jun 15, 2016 9:19:17 GMT -5 daduke38 said:

Jun 14, 2016 17:26:46 GMT -5 sportsrancho said:

I thought he said the reps were in training. But Iooked back and he did say we are down to a handful of spots left. I do see people doing that all the time on Twitter. Asking for referrals and talking about jobs.

ilove, the post talking about July was because Mike tweets about July:-). We just aren't sure why. I hope we pass SNY up in script count by Oct:-))

I posted this thought on another thread, but I think we will pass SNY quicker than that (JMHO)! If we were to pass it quickly, I think it would all but prove how badly SNY sand bagged this.

Copy That.  In which case, a settlement is better served cold and later is better than sooner.

[bradleysbest]

I'm hoping the ADA "enlightened" the skeptical doctors about the true benefits that using Afrezza will bring to patients. The doctors have to be willing to prescribe Afrezza which will make it easier on the sales reps.

[kc]

Don't count on ADA attendance moving the needle. Perhaps only 5% of the Target doctors were even in attendance at ADA. We will win only with shoe leather knocking on doors and getting appointments.

[dictatorsaurus]

Withholding judgement until I start seeing some results. So far I haven't seen anything yet.

Many over analyzed during the SNY days only to eventually face a major disappointed.

Until we start seeing major increase in scripts the company is still generating almost zero revenue.

[bradleysbest]

The difference is at least we know MNKD is in control & will do its best to get Afrezza to PWD.... Can't say the same for the last company!

[cathode]

Jun 15, 2016 9:56:35 GMT -5 compound26 said:

Jun 15, 2016 9:42:41 GMT -5 bradleysbest said:

How soon will the script count rise to the 1000 mark? If we can hit that mark by 1Q-2017 we are off & running! Hopeful that the new MNKD sales team is full of "go getters".

That will require each sales representative to produce 2 new scripts a day, which translates to 10 new scripts a week. Times that with 70 sales representative, you get 700 new scripts per week.  Add that to 200-300 renewals, you get about 900 to 1,000 total scripts. 

On average, will each sales representative be able to produce 2 new scripts a day by 1Q-2017? 

Your measure of 2 scripts a day is if you want to get to 1000 scripts/week in one week. Of course that is unreasonable.

The real metric is total Rx (new, renewal, refill), which could grow over time to 1000 very reasonably. It is all about accumulation. There are 26(?) weeks until Jan 1 2017. Small accumulations over that time can make big impacts.

Assuming:

• New scripts (purely new, not renewal) grow by 10 scripts each week, starting from 0
  
• Refills (component of TRX) occur 4 weeks after initial new prescription
  
• 100 percent of prescriptions are renewed and patients retained, renewals don't factor into NRX
  

Week (t)	NRXt = t*10	TRX = NRXt + TRXt-4
1	10	10
2	20	20
3	30	30
4	40	40
5	50	60
6	60	80
7	70	100
8	80	120
9	90	150
10	100	180
11	110	210
12	120	240
13	130	280
14	140	320
15	150	360
16	160	400
17	170	450
18	180	500
19	190	550
20	200	600
21	210	660
22	220	720
23	230	780
24	240	840
25	250	910

Looking at the Symphony data, it took 22 weeks to get to >500 TRX/week for the original launch.

[Deleted]

Rx for chronic is 3 months

[compound26]

Jun 15, 2016 16:15:07 GMT -5 cathode said:

Jun 15, 2016 9:56:35 GMT -5 compound26 said:

That will require each sales representative to produce 2 new scripts a day, which translates to 10 new scripts a week. Times that with 70 sales representative, you get 700 new scripts per week.  Add that to 200-300 renewals, you get about 900 to 1,000 total scripts. 

On average, will each sales representative be able to produce 2 new scripts a day by 1Q-2017? 

Your measure of 2 scripts a day is if you want to get to 1000 scripts/week in one week. Of course that is unreasonable.

The real metric is total Rx (new, renewal, refill), which could grow over time to 1000 very reasonably. It is all about accumulation. There are 26(?) weeks until Jan 1 2017. Small accumulations over that time can make big impacts.

Assuming:

• New scripts (purely new, not renewal) grow by 10 scripts each week, starting from 0
  
• Refills (component of TRX) occur 4 weeks after initial new prescription
  
• 100 percent of prescriptions are renewed and patients retained, renewals don't factor into NRX
  

Week (t)	NRXt = t*10	TRX = NRXt + TRXt-4
1	10	10
2	20	20
3	30	30
4	40	40
5	50	60
6	60	80
7	70	100
8	80	120
9	90	150
10	100	180
11	110	210
12	120	240
13	130	280
14	140	320
15	150	360
16	160	400
17	170	450
18	180	500
19	190	550
20	200	600
21	210	660
22	220	720
23	230	780
24	240	840
25	250	910

Looking at the Symphony data, it took 22 weeks to get to >500 TRX/week for the original launch.

cathode , agree with your point.  My post was half-joking. I was just looking from the perspective of how few scripts each sales representative needs to generate to reach a total weekly scripts of 1,000. 

I think one of the keys of success is how well Mike will be able to improve the renewal rate.  

In your above post, one of the assumption is "100 percent of prescriptions are renewed and patients retained".  We know it is impossible to get such a renewal rate.   Had we had this kind of renewal rate, I would guess we would be looking at 2,000+ weekly TRx (and a run rate of $50 million annual sale ) right now.

SNY stated of a drop out rate of 65% (don't recall exactly, but something to that effect).  And in Mike's presentation in the ASM, he said that it won't work when you loose 60% to 70% of the new users every month (don't recall exactly, but something to that effect). Mike also said that, had we had good renewal rate, Afrezza's first year sales would have been in the range of $20-40 million.

[therealisaching]

I'm hoping the nurse educators are part of this solution. It's not that many new patients per week. They should be assigned as a resource for each new patient to get them through titration and any other issues that came up for early adopters. We know for some dosing and timing didn't go well without education. Let's do some serious handholding and build a loyal core. 

[nylefty]

If the 70 reps only generated ten new scripts a week that would mean that it would take seven reps to generate only one new script per week. That's a pretty pessimistic scenario. Hope they do better than that.

[Deleted]

Have some faith in this pharmaceutical sales team ya'll! Regardless if a drug is good or not, a lot of the time it is just who you know or being born with the talent of people easily liking you. As long as whoever hired these people made sure they had the talent or connections to produce results then I am hopeful of success

[spiro]

Spiro used to love the company, now he only likes MNKD. It was a blind love, Spiro would spend every loose dollar he had on MNKD shares and options. Those days are over. Spiro at 70 has finally gotten older and slightly wiser. He still refuses to sell any shares, but I least he is not buying new positions. Spiro thinks that MNKD has about until Novemebr, to show some serious progress in script numbers. The big question remains. What is serious progress? Maybe, at least doubling Sanofi's sales?

Spiro here, Siberia seems to be getting closer