|
|
Post by wsulylecoug on Aug 5, 2016 13:44:06 GMT -5
I can certainly see how that would magnify that latest happenings. Much of what I said doesn't apply then...flip a coin?? Just kidding, but given the fickleness of small biotechs, maybe not.
|
|
|
|
Post by kball on Aug 5, 2016 13:47:02 GMT -5
Please excuse me if this has been discussed before. Serious replies only, please. Currently, technicals say this is low and may start moving up soon - and Q2 "earnings" will be released monday. i had my finger over the sell button yesterday and today which would mean a loss of about $65,000 for me. I can suck it up, but it will really hurt. Every $1,000 would help right now... How do you think the earnings call will go on monday? Personally, i don't see how there can be any new positive announcements which to me would indicate the sp going lower - and possibly significantly lower. However, i could not have been more wrong the entire time i've owned this stock and am looking for advice from you on what to do. Should i sell or hang on a few more weeks / months / years? If i sell now, do you think i could buy back in lower soon??? i know that is the million $$ question, but i need help... please! P.S. - yes, this completely goes again my last post of "new optimism" lol  i am so tired of holding this, but its been 9 months or so already, so whats another... Oh yea, and please, don't worry about my health - i care more about making a good financial decision right now than my health  Thank you in advance! I have owned this stock since 2007. My current losses are not as severe as yours. But painful as well. I figure this is a once in a lifetime investment opportunity that is extremely high risk. If MannKind survives, we all look like geniuses. If it goes bankrupt, we all took a chance on what should have been a paradigm shifting diabetes drug. I'm staying fully invested until the game is over. We will know a lot more by December 2016. I sure as shit hope so. |
|
|
|
Post by surplusvalue on Aug 5, 2016 14:01:21 GMT -5
We are stuck at this abismal price only because of concerted effort by manipulators on WS. A number of reputable institutions continue to hold, regardless of Goldman Sacks blather of$0.15. So with GS holding in excess of 5 mil shares do they have an agenda? No, We are stuck at this price because there is no reason for the price to move. Nor do I think there will be reason after the call as I cannot see anything material they can announce that would move the market. As to GS and institutional holding you might want to read some of the earlier threads where the rationale for holding was covered in some depth - suffice it to say a lot of those holdings are non-discretionary. Why we are here at this price is a combination of factors (failure to commercialize , powerful interests that want to see MNKD obliterated etc.) all discussed many times before. I wouldnt be surprised at all that even if MNKD achieves a substantial reason for the price to move, we will see the stock hit hard to further discourage investors and longs. Will have to hang tough even if this were to occur. Forewarned is forearmed. |
|
|
|
Post by als57 on Aug 5, 2016 15:38:49 GMT -5
Agreed, and appreciate the view that even after moderate success the stock may still get whacked by the dark side. Yes, forewarned is forearmed!
|
|
|
|
Post by brotherm1 on Aug 5, 2016 16:14:26 GMT -5
No, We are stuck at this price because there is no reason for the price to move. Nor do I think there will be reason after the call as I cannot see anything material they can announce that would move the market. As to GS and institutional holding you might want to read some of the earlier threads where the rationale for holding was covered in some depth - suffice it to say a lot of those holdings are non-discretionary. Why we are here at this price is a combination of factors (failure to commercialize , powerful interests that want to see MNKD obliterated etc.) all discussed many times before. I wouldnt be surprised at all that even if MNKD achieves a substantial reason for the price to move, we will see the stock hit hard to further discourage investors and longs. Will have to hang tough even if this were to occur. Forewarned is forearmed. The fact the share price struggles to stay above $1 and trades up to .0001 increments and most often closes down suddenly the last few minutes of each day makes it appear to me it is heavily manipulated. On the other hand, I wonder if this same action is not mostly or all due to someone selling - perhaps someone of the Mann eatate - but only selling when the price is around or above $1.00 and not lower so as to not keep the price below $1 so the company can maintain NASDAQ listing requirements. |
|
|
|
Post by tingtongtung on Aug 5, 2016 16:48:08 GMT -5
wsulylecougSome of the gems I own/owned. AMRN - Oh man! I too had it for a long time. I got out of it early this year at ~2.40 (somewhere in that range). This was jumping between 1.xx and 2.xx, and I had some LT profits, and got out of it to calm my nerves! And, they have script count in thousands :-) They won the FDA lawsuit, and I will prob reenter when it dips below 3. INO. Back to MNKD. I made lots of swing trade before FDA approval, and was up after the approval. Started buying some more when Sanofi came in ($11.xx --> my biggest mistake). There were lots of discussion going on regarding the quality of that contract (MNKD deemed to have entered a bad one). I did more research into the product, believed it, and bought more. Script numbers started coming in, and price started going down. There were lots of discussion (finance.yahoo) about SNY dropping, etc.. Hindsight is 20/20. SNY firing their prev CEO may have started this downfall, but MNKD completely dropped the ball. They should have started the process of hiring people like Mark C last year. They had no plan B, and were just hoping that stuff becomes OK. Mann was still alive, and management just left it to him. (IMHO). When SNY dropped them officially, MNKD was more like deer in headlights. After Duane fiasco, Matt was put on the top (no other choice?). He seems to be a decent guy. He has hired some good guys. They are doing most of things correctly now (should have done this last year). Lets hope the scripts start increasing in a month or so.. I actually bought some yesterday.. I just want to get out of this with a good profit!
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Aug 5, 2016 18:01:26 GMT -5
"I just want to get out of this with a good profit!"
Geez, ting, that's all you want? LOL
Many here would be really happy with getting anywhere near even.
|
|
|
|
Post by LosingMyBullishness on Aug 5, 2016 18:23:13 GMT -5
> Lets hope the scripts start increasing in a month or so..
Indeed. The next few months will be very binary for > 70k of my money, which is the money I invested in MNKD. Sounds unreal and right now I wish it would be unreal. Hopefully in hindsight we will say things like "boy, this was a bit of a rollercoaster but, you know, that's investing, right".
|
|
|
|
Post by surplusvalue on Aug 5, 2016 21:01:01 GMT -5
> Lets hope the scripts start increasing in a month or so.. Indeed. The next few months will be very binary for > 70k of my money, which is the money I invested in MNKD. Sounds unreal and right now I wish it would be unreal. Hopefully in hindsight we will say things like "boy, this was a bit of a rollercoaster but, you know, that's investing, right". Like you and many others I am in deep here as well. Unreal is an understatement. Aside from the responsibility that I think MNKD management has for some of the present situation, every time I think about how Sanofi under Brandicourt sabotaged (insert numerous expletives here instead) MNKD I get very very very angry. Hence I try not to think about it too much. This hasn't been like any investing I have ever had the pleasure? to experience. Water under the bridge, but still. |
|
|
|
Post by tingtongtung on Aug 6, 2016 2:05:46 GMT -5
"I just want to get out of this with a good profit!" Geez, ting, that's all you want? LOL Many here would be really happy with getting anywhere near even. Yes! Just giving it a positive spin. I want to break even (I just want to reduce my losses, which is more than his). But, as the posters below you say, there's a big chance next year or so, we may look back and say, "we took a HUGE risk, and it paid off" :-) Of course, I want to exit this with a good profit. I do hope it gets bought for at least $56.78 :-) Why that number? I have no idea!!!! (Well, that's --> 5 6 7 8) |
|
|
|
Post by morfu on Aug 6, 2016 4:34:25 GMT -5
"I just want to get out of this with a good profit!" Geez, ting, that's all you want? LOL Many here would be really happy with getting anywhere near even. Yes! Just giving it a positive spin. I want to break even (I just want to reduce my losses, which is more than his). But, as the posters below you say, there's a big chance next year or so, we may look back and say, "we took a HUGE risk, and it paid off" :-) Of course, I want to exit this with a good profit. I do hope it gets bought for at least $56.78 :-) Why that number? I have no idea!!!! (Well, that's --> 5 6 7 8) Just want to reinforce the investor point of view .. If they manage to get solid numbers and stabilize, why sell? If the manage to sell a sufficient amount of their product you will very soon sit above 5%pa of your initial investment and the prospect would look good.. its hard to beat that! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2016 5:52:52 GMT -5
that is what i am really struggling with - will it survive or bk??? It seems the market doesn't really know either which is why we are stuck at $1... Step back and take a look at mnkd from a 30k foot view. Consider everything.....financial health, insurance challenges, competiton, current status, future plans, and financial capabilities to make those plans real. Mnkds biggest challenge is the label. It doesnt state what it really is - ultra fast acting. As a result, insurance coverage is limited and the domino effect of that issue hits to the core of mnkds problem. This problem wont just go away. More data required and another run at the fda which takes time and a ton more cash is required to upgrade that label. Predictions of going lower are more likely to happen imo because no matter what happens short term mnkd needs to raise more cash. They will need to make it very sweet to investors like the last round which will take the price down, again. Cash burn rates are going to be much higher than 10 mil or so a month due to all the staff recently hired. By the way, the market is already spoken on mnkd which is why its trading at a buck and not 5 or 10 a share. Mnkd is now just a zombie stock, sorry to say. Any seasoned and well rounded investor moves on from bad trades and lives to fight another day. Thousands of opportunities out there so obsessing on one stock rarely produces sustainable and reproducable investment results over time. However, if you're in this to support a good treatment option rather than a strictly financial transaction then recognize that in yourself and stand firm till an outcome is reached. I'm a strict financial disciplined styled investor but I can understand wanting to support a novel treatment like afrezza. |
|
|
|
Post by mnkdnewb on Aug 6, 2016 7:46:11 GMT -5
that is what i am really struggling with - will it survive or bk??? It seems the market doesn't really know either which is why we are stuck at $1... Step back and take a look at mnkd from a 30k foot view. Consider everything.....financial health, insurance challenges, competiton, current status, future plans, and financial capabilities to make those plans real. Mnkds biggest challenge is the label. It doesnt state what it really is - ultra fast acting. As a result, insurance coverage is limited and the domino effect of that issue hits to the core of mnkds problem. This problem wont just go away. More data required and another run at the fda which takes time and a ton more cash is required to upgrade that label. Predictions of going lower are more likely to happen imo because no matter what happens short term mnkd needs to raise more cash. They will need to make it very sweet to investors like the last round which will take the price down, again. Cash burn rates are going to be much higher than 10 mil or so a month due to all the staff recently hired. By the way, the market is already spoken on mnkd which is why its trading at a buck and not 5 or 10 a share. Mnkd is now just a zombie stock, sorry to say. Any seasoned and well rounded investor moves on from bad trades and lives to fight another day. Thousands of opportunities out there so obsessing on one stock rarely produces sustainable and reproducable investment results over time. However, if you're in this to support a good treatment option rather than a strictly financial transaction then recognize that in yourself and stand firm till an outcome is reached. I'm a strict financial disciplined styled investor but I can understand wanting to support a novel treatment like afrezza. I ended up selling 29,000 shares yesterday at $1. Still have 5,953 in case of a miracle on Monday's earnings but I'll probably sell the rest next week. If some of the challenges you mentioned above are resolved I may jump back in. |
|
|
|
Post by avichen on Aug 6, 2016 8:22:55 GMT -5
Yes! Just giving it a positive spin. I want to break even (I just want to reduce my losses, which is more than his). But, as the posters below you say, there's a big chance next year or so, we may look back and say, "we took a HUGE risk, and it paid off" :-) Of course, I want to exit this with a good profit. I do hope it gets bought for at least $56.78 :-) Why that number? I have no idea!!!! (Well, that's --> 5 6 7 8) I want 1 2 3 4 5... $123.45 |
|
|
|
Post by matt on Aug 6, 2016 10:56:31 GMT -5
I think it is important to remember that there is a difference between a drug and the company that makes the drug. Does Afrezza work well, at least for a significant segment of the diabetic population? I think that question has been answered yes. Did the company dig itself into too deep a hole financially to ever crawl out? That is what troubles Wall Street. It is entirely possible that the drug will succeed but the company will fail.
Like davinci, I worry about the company's continue access to financing on reasonable terms. The cash burn is huge relative to the revenue, and no matter how heroic the efforts of the sales team the company will not get to cash flow break even any time soon. If scripts per week can grow to a decent number, like 5,000 Trx per week, before Q3 results come out in November, then I think the financial markets will be reasonably accepting, not friendly but accepting. However, if script growth can't hit some number like that then financing, if available at all, will crush existing shareholders. I know it is still early days in the launch cycle, but given where scripts are today 5,000 is a tough nut to crack, and even then the company will only be half-way to cash flow break-even. Less than that kind of progress and I think Wall Street will be vindicated in their outlook.
|
|
i am so tired of holding this, but its been 9 months or so already, so whats another... Oh yea, and please, don't worry about my health - i care more about making a good financial decision right now than my health 
