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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2016 11:03:34 GMT -5
I think it is important to remember that there is a difference between a drug and the company that makes the drug. Does Afrezza work well, at least for a significant segment of the diabetic population? I think that question has been answered yes. Did the company dig itself into too deep a hole financially to ever crawl out? That is what troubles Wall Street. It is entirely possible that the drug will succeed but the company will fail. Like davinci, I worry about the company's continue access to financing on reasonable terms. The cash burn is huge relative to the revenue, and no matter how heroic the efforts of the sales team the company will not get to cash flow break even any time soon. If scripts per week can grow to a decent number, like 5,000 Trx per week, before Q3 results come out in November, then I think the financial markets will be reasonably accepting, not friendly but accepting. However, if script growth can't hit some number like that then financing, if available at all, will crush existing shareholders. I know it is still early days in the launch cycle, but given where scripts are today 5,000 is a tough nut to crack, and even then the company will only be half-way to cash flow break-even. Less than that kind of progress and I think Wall Street will be vindicated in their outlook. Thats 100% not possible. 5000 TRX per week is close to 2.5 mil per week ( with $500 per rx.. the current run rate is 600+) and would be close to break even given 10 mil in monthly expenses. crossing 627 trx will bring back some hopes into MNKD and if this management is worthy, will go into arbitration with sanofi.. although my gut feeling they are not that capable. |
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Post by kball on Aug 6, 2016 11:38:56 GMT -5
I think it is important to remember that there is a difference between a drug and the company that makes the drug. Does Afrezza work well, at least for a significant segment of the diabetic population? I think that question has been answered yes. Did the company dig itself into too deep a hole financially to ever crawl out? That is what troubles Wall Street. It is entirely possible that the drug will succeed but the company will fail. Like davinci, I worry about the company's continue access to financing on reasonable terms. The cash burn is huge relative to the revenue, and no matter how heroic the efforts of the sales team the company will not get to cash flow break even any time soon. If scripts per week can grow to a decent number, like 5,000 Trx per week, before Q3 results come out in November, then I think the financial markets will be reasonably accepting, not friendly but accepting. However, if script growth can't hit some number like that then financing, if available at all, will crush existing shareholders. I know it is still early days in the launch cycle, but given where scripts are today 5,000 is a tough nut to crack, and even then the company will only be half-way to cash flow break-even. Less than that kind of progress and I think Wall Street will be vindicated in their outlook.*sigh* To quote the great Bill Murray in STRIPES..."And then depression set in" |
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Aug 6, 2016 12:16:34 GMT -5
Step back and take a look at mnkd from a 30k foot view. Consider everything.....financial health, insurance challenges, competiton, current status, future plans, and financial capabilities to make those plans real. Mnkds biggest challenge is the label. It doesnt state what it really is - ultra fast acting. As a result, insurance coverage is limited and the domino effect of that issue hits to the core of mnkds problem. This problem wont just go away. More data required and another run at the fda which takes time and a ton more cash is required to upgrade that label. Predictions of going lower are more likely to happen imo because no matter what happens short term mnkd needs to raise more cash. They will need to make it very sweet to investors like the last round which will take the price down, again. Cash burn rates are going to be much higher than 10 mil or so a month due to all the staff recently hired. By the way, the market is already spoken on mnkd which is why its trading at a buck and not 5 or 10 a share. Mnkd is now just a zombie stock, sorry to say. Any seasoned and well rounded investor moves on from bad trades and lives to fight another day. Thousands of opportunities out there so obsessing on one stock rarely produces sustainable and reproducable investment results over time. However, if you're in this to support a good treatment option rather than a strictly financial transaction then recognize that in yourself and stand firm till an outcome is reached. I'm a strict financial disciplined styled investor but I can understand wanting to support a novel treatment like afrezza. I ended up selling 29,000 shares yesterday at $1. Still have 5,913 in case of a miracle on Monday's earnings but I'll probably sell the rest next week. If some of the challenges you mentioned above are resolved I may jump back in. Interesting. Why? If you bought into MNKD 2.0 then you understood that it will take till Sept/Oct to understand if the new team can turn it around. Probably you also anticipated that the biotech sector would recover in general. Well, the biotech sector is recovering with huge steps and and the new sales effort is well underway. |
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Post by mnkdnewb on Aug 6, 2016 13:50:21 GMT -5
I ended up selling 29,000 shares yesterday at $1. Still have 5,913 in case of a miracle on Monday's earnings but I'll probably sell the rest next week. If some of the challenges you mentioned above are resolved I may jump back in. Interesting. Why? If you bought into MNKD 2.0 then you understood that it will take till Sept/Oct to understand if the new team can turn it around. Probably you also anticipated that the biotech sector would recover in general. Well, the biotech sector is recovering with huge steps and and the new sales effort is well underway. I bought into afrezza, technosphere, sanofi and al Mann - not afrezza 2.0. Afrezza is great no doubt about it but as of right NOW it isn't selling like I thought it would. Since I bought in, al mann passed away, sanofi dropped us (reasons are anyone's best guess to be honest) and most of our technosphere applications have pretty much been put on hold (be honest, they can't afford to pay for development and sales right now)... RLS is using technosphere but we know nothing about them and received $150,000 for them to use / test / develop their product with technosphere. I think we will get a milestone payment from them this year, but for how much? I doubt it will be the $100,000,000 total - and if it is I will be kicking myself for not hanging on. Comes down to me not thinking the risk is worth the reward at this price. They are not looking to partner with anyone right now because they can't get a decent deal until afrezza sells. We can't sell afrezza without $$$ and we can't get money without RLS coming through in a huge way or dilution. Even with enough money to operate our current staff, in my opinion it will take 1 1/2 years to break even. If I see we are on that trajectory then I will jump back in without thinking twice - but right now, there are some serious concerns for me. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 6, 2016 14:34:53 GMT -5
"....If scripts per week can grow to a decent number, like 5,000 Trx per week, before Q3 results come out in November, then I think the financial markets will be reasonably accepting, not friendly but accepting. However, if script growth can't hit some number like that then financing, if available at all, will crush existing shareholders. I know it is still early days in the launch cycle, but given where scripts are today 5,000 is a tough nut to crack, and even then the company will only be half-way to cash flow break-even. Less than that kind of progress and I think Wall Street will be vindicated in their outlook."
You're out of your tree. Who do you think you're fooling??? 5000 scripts per week before November would not only bring us close to cash flow even, the share price would skyrocket and fincaning would thus not be any issue if needed. Even 1,000 scrips per week by then would be real good and demonstrate the ability of this company to succeed and bring in investors. Someone should start a thread on this board dedicated to BS for those with a clear fud agenda so we can readily just choose to ignore and not read such BS
Keep it real.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Aug 6, 2016 15:15:52 GMT -5
Interesting. Why? If you bought into MNKD 2.0 then you understood that it will take till Sept/Oct to understand if the new team can turn it around. Probably you also anticipated that the biotech sector would recover in general. Well, the biotech sector is recovering with huge steps and and the new sales effort is well underway. I bought into afrezza, technosphere, sanofi and al Mann - not afrezza 2.0. Afrezza is great no doubt about it but as of right NOW it isn't selling like I thought it would. Since I bought in, al mann passed away, sanofi dropped us (reasons are anyone's best guess to be honest) and most of our technosphere applications have pretty much been put on hold (be honest, they can't afford to pay for development and sales right now)... RLS is using technosphere but we know nothing about them and received $150,000 for them to use / test / develop their product with technosphere. I think we will get a milestone payment from them this year, but for how much? I doubt it will be the $100,000,000 total - and if it is I will be kicking myself for not hanging on. Comes down to me not thinking the risk is worth the reward at this price. They are not looking to partner with anyone right now because they can't get a decent deal until afrezza sells. We can't sell afrezza without $$$ and we can't get money without RLS coming through in a huge way or dilution. Even with enough money to operate our current staff, in my opinion it will take 1 1/2 years to break even. If I see we are on that trajectory then I will jump back in without thinking twice - but right now, there are some serious concerns for me. I agree to everything you say and I admire your decisiveness. |
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Aug 6, 2016 15:41:19 GMT -5
"....If scripts per week can grow to a decent number, like 5,000 Trx per week, before Q3 results come out in November, then I think the financial markets will be reasonably accepting, not friendly but accepting. However, if script growth can't hit some number like that then financing, if available at all, will crush existing shareholders. I know it is still early days in the launch cycle, but given where scripts are today 5,000 is a tough nut to crack, and even then the company will only be half-way to cash flow break-even. Less than that kind of progress and I think Wall Street will be vindicated in their outlook." You're out of your tree. Who do you think you're fooling??? 5000 scripts per week before November would not only bring us close to cash flow even, the share price would skyrocket and fincaning would thus not be any issue if needed. Even 1,000 scrips per week by then would be real good and demonstrate the ability of this company to succeed and bring in investors. Someone should start a thread on this board dedicated to BS for those with a clear fud agenda so we can readily just choose to ignore and not read such BS Keep it real. Yep. It is not about break even in my opinion. It is about proving that there is a good business case in a very big, fast growing market. The biotech market has regained appeal to investors. We need a glimpse at the horizon to attract new investors and then shorts might get under pressure and share price goes up. First and main benchmark is peak SNY sales mid last year. Mike has to top that by whatever means.That would show that SNY is more to blame than Afrezza and could create some media attention around sandbagging by big pharma for profit against health of patients. everything beyond is only relevant to made a trajectory. |
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Post by hillsave on Aug 6, 2016 16:10:33 GMT -5
A good question to ask yourself is why did MNKD turn down $500,000,000 for 51% of the company? Do they have other offers on the table? Do they believe they can turn this company around on their own in a timely manner? Do they know something we don't? I know the offer was real. I know first hand that Afrezza is a great drug for T1 & T2 as both my son and I have been using Afrezza for over 17 months. I believe MNKD is doing things that SNY should have been doing all along. SNY's plan was not very well thought out unless their plan was to fail. The team in place now is shaking things up and you will see the cream rising to the top over the next few months.
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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 6, 2016 16:25:44 GMT -5
A good question to ask yourself is why did MNKD turn down $500,000,000 for 51% of the company? Do they have other offers on the table? Do they believe they can turn this company around on their own in a timely manner? Do they know something we don't? I know the offer was real. I know first hand that Afrezza is a great drug for T1 & T2 as both my son and I have been using Afrezza for over 17 months. I believe MNKD is doing things that SNY should have been doing all along. SNY's plan was not very well thought out unless their plan was to fail. The team in place now is shaking things up and you will see the cream rising to the top over the next few months. I'm asking myself now why they turned it down? I am also asking myself when they were offered the 500m and when they turned it down and I can't find the answer. Please help me find the answers. |
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Post by bioexec25 on Aug 6, 2016 16:52:19 GMT -5
Expecting the scripts alone to be the only source capital to fund 2017 is a bit extreme. Wild speculation about buyouts, billionaire rescues or massive settlements with Sny are likewise a bit extreme. Strategically, if Afrezza shows real positive adoption and retention this year through trending scripts and better coverage then given the size of the global marketplace, I believe this not only lives on beyond 2017, I believe it becomes very successful. I don't know where the capital to fund the gap between growing scripts will come from but as this general adoption happens, there will be regional deals signed. I'm convinced the future partners are watching as we speak for this adoption trend before signing.
Lastly, imo, there will be other cash coming this year like RLS, small settlement related things, or other deals or sources like Vdex. I refuse to value script count as if none of that will happen and scripts alone must fund the company by year-end much less November. Even if there is a gap after all sources combined, the amount of dilution would not likely destroy shareholders, especially if the PPS is higher by Q4.
I realize this thinking wouldn't secure a loan at a bank much less give street analysts any comfort, :-) and I realize that this investment is now highly speculative, but let's just see how 2.0 goes along.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2016 17:00:59 GMT -5
A good question to ask yourself is why did MNKD turn down $500,000,000 for 51% of the company? Do they have other offers on the table? Do they believe they can turn this company around on their own in a timely manner? Do they know something we don't? I know the offer was real. I know first hand that Afrezza is a great drug for T1 & T2 as both my son and I have been using Afrezza for over 17 months. I believe MNKD is doing things that SNY should have been doing all along. SNY's plan was not very well thought out unless their plan was to fail. The team in place now is shaking things up and you will see the cream rising to the top over the next few months. They turned down cos the entire BOD and management will be out the first thing |
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Post by tingtongtung on Aug 6, 2016 17:03:47 GMT -5
A good question to ask yourself is why did MNKD turn down $500,000,000 for 51% of the company? Do they have other offers on the table? Do they believe they can turn this company around on their own in a timely manner? Do they know something we don't? I know the offer was real. I know first hand that Afrezza is a great drug for T1 & T2 as both my son and I have been using Afrezza for over 17 months. I believe MNKD is doing things that SNY should have been doing all along. SNY's plan was not very well thought out unless their plan was to fail. The team in place now is shaking things up and you will see the cream rising to the top over the next few months. They turned down cos the entire BOD and management will be out the first thing Who offered 500 million? The Chinese fund in the last meeting? |
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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 6, 2016 17:27:00 GMT -5
If it was a legitimate offer to buy 51% of MNKD, would not MNKD have to inform shareholders of the offer?
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 6, 2016 17:29:53 GMT -5
If it was a legitimate offer to buy 51% of MNKD, would not MNKD have to inform shareholders of the offer? No, knowing the offer was real and entertaining the offer are two different things I believe:-) |
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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 6, 2016 17:31:56 GMT -5
If it was a legitimate offer to buy 51% of MNKD, would not MNKD have to inform shareholders of the offer? No Oh. |
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