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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 6, 2016 17:42:10 GMT -5
Remember when Matt said, you wouldn't believe how many offers we've had at this stock price. People coming out of the woodwork! Wanting the company cheap. They didn't consider any of those. So we don't know who they were. And I don't remember which CC that was said at. Sorry:-( |
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Post by hillsave on Aug 6, 2016 19:21:18 GMT -5
Expecting the scripts alone to be the only source capital to fund 2017 is a bit extreme. Wild speculation about buyouts, billionaire rescues or massive settlements with Sny are likewise a bit extreme. Strategically, if Afrezza shows real positive adoption and retention this year through trending scripts and better coverage then given the size of the global marketplace, I believe this not only lives on beyond 2017, I believe it becomes very successful. I don't know where the capital to fund the gap between growing scripts will come from but as this general adoption happens, there will be regional deals signed. I'm convinced the future partners are watching as we speak for this adoption trend before signing. Lastly, imo, there will be other cash coming this year like RLS, small settlement related things, or other deals or sources like Vdex. I refuse to value script count as if none of that will happen and scripts alone must fund the company by year-end much less November. Even if there is a gap after all sources combined, the amount of dilution would not likely destroy shareholders, especially if the PPS is higher by Q4. I realize this thinking wouldn't secure a loan at a bank much less give street analysts any comfort, :-) and I realize that this investment is now highly speculative, but let's just see how 2.0 goes along. FYI VDEX has nothing to do with MNKD other than helping patients who have T1 or T2 be educated on Afrezza. Granted it VDEX is successful then it will help the script count and help MNKD. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2016 19:37:53 GMT -5
Remember when Matt said, you wouldn't believe how many offers we've had at this stock price. People coming out of the woodwork! Wanting the company cheap. They didn't consider any of those. So we don't know who they were. And I don't remember which CC that was said at. Sorry:-( Matt also said many international deals and then slowly back tracked saying , we would want Afrezza to pick up sales for a better deal.. just saying numerous other things.. but dont want to point them out |
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 6, 2016 20:47:34 GMT -5
Remember when Matt said, you wouldn't believe how many offers we've had at this stock price. People coming out of the woodwork! Wanting the company cheap. They didn't consider any of those. So we don't know who they were. And I don't remember which CC that was said at. Sorry:-( Matt also said many international deals and then slowly back tracked saying , we would want Afrezza to pick up sales for a better deal.. just saying numerous other things.. but dont want to point them out If they had been serious they would have gone hostile. Ultimately if a company is listed it is for sale. Mannkind has two defenses - the shorts, and the sheer size of the float. Any attempt to buy up shares will cause an almighty short squeeze artificially inflating the price because the percentage of float available is not that high considering the huge number of shares. There is also a double sided sword - the Mann holding. If the trustees decided to accept it is difficult to see what could be done to stop the sale. |
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Post by audiomr on Aug 7, 2016 1:06:25 GMT -5
Lastly, imo, there will be other cash coming this year like RLS, small settlement related things, or other deals or sources like Vdex. I refuse to value script count as if none of that will happen and scripts alone must fund the company by year-end much less November. VDEX will not be a direct source of cash. All it can do for Mannkind is to raise the scrip count. |
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Post by audiomr on Aug 7, 2016 1:11:07 GMT -5
Matt also said many international deals and then slowly back tracked saying , we would want Afrezza to pick up sales for a better deal.. just saying numerous other things.. but dont want to point them out If they had been serious they would have gone hostile. Ultimately if a company is listed it is for sale. Mannkind has two defenses - the shorts, and the sheer size of the float. Any attempt to buy up shares will cause an almighty short squeeze artificially inflating the price because the percentage of float available is not that high considering the huge number of shares. There is also a double sided sword - the Mann holding. If the trustees decided to accept it is difficult to see what could be done to stop the sale. I suppose a hostile takeover is a more realistic possibility now that Mann is dead, but it would pretty much require the trustees of his foundation and estate to turn, which I think is unlikely. The company is atypical in the huge proportion of stock held by insiders. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 7:29:14 GMT -5
Any legit offer is material information which requires dissimination to investors. Conversations like feelers are just that and dont fall into material information. I would not doubt that matt received plenty of feelers but if they received an actual offer to accept or reject, thats material info. This is well explained online. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 7:33:51 GMT -5
"....If scripts per week can grow to a decent number, like 5,000 Trx per week, before Q3 results come out in November, then I think the financial markets will be reasonably accepting, not friendly but accepting. However, if script growth can't hit some number like that then financing, if available at all, will crush existing shareholders. I know it is still early days in the launch cycle, but given where scripts are today 5,000 is a tough nut to crack, and even then the company will only be half-way to cash flow break-even. Less than that kind of progress and I think Wall Street will be vindicated in their outlook." You're out of your tree. Who do you think you're fooling??? 5000 scripts per week before November would not only bring us close to cash flow even, the share price would skyrocket and fincaning would thus not be any issue if needed. Even 1,000 scrips per week by then would be real good and demonstrate the ability of this company to succeed and bring in investors. Someone should start a thread on this board dedicated to BS for those with a clear fud agenda so we can readily just choose to ignore and not read such BS Keep it real. Need to do the math and compare sales and how many scripts it takes to get there. If you did you would see more about your statements and how they are missing the bigger picture. I was sharing this information last year but many dont or cant accept the reality of math so I stopped sharing. But basics and fundamentals dont change and nothing has changed since the begining if the 1st launch. |
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Post by matt on Aug 7, 2016 9:01:03 GMT -5
You're out of your tree. Who do you think you're fooling??? 5000 scripts per week before November would not only bring us close to cash flow even, the share price would skyrocket and fincaning would thus not be any issue if needed. Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers. Scripts drive revenue, which is a single line on a set of financial statements. I said that 10,000 would be cash flow break-even, and I stand by that number. Why? If we take the trending price per Rx of 533 (off the chart that Liane updates weekly) 10,000 scripts would yield $21 million a month in revenue. What does that $21 million need to cover? 1. The contract sales force, which we know costs around $10 million / month. 2. R&D. Everyone talks about how great Technosphere will be, but it will be worthless without further research. R&D has been averaging $2 million / month. 3. General & Administrative expenses averaged $3.3 million a month in 2015, $2.5 million for the first quarter. Call it $3 million / month. 4. Production cost averaged $5.6 million a month in 2015, and $2.5 million in the first quarter. That was to support very limited sales volumes; if the company is successful with relaunch the cost per month will scale up accordingly. It will not be linear, due to production economies of scale, but the number will substantially larger. 5. Working capital, like accounts receivable, was Sanofi's problem. Now that has to be financed by Mannkind's balance sheet and that is a use of cash that doesn't hit the income statement. 6. The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million. So add all of that up, and you will see that it might take substantially more than 10,000 scripts to reach cash flow break even. In the meantime, the company will burn cash, the balance sheet will deteriorate, and that is what Wall Street will be looking at. Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion on the revenue needed to support the organization as it is today, and 5,000 scripts per week just isn't enough. Many on this forum advocate dropping the unit selling price to drive penetration, but that would require even more scripts to make up the shortfall in revenue so that really isn't a feasible solution either. With 5,000 scripts the share price would move up, no doubt about that, but the financing terms will still be tough until the company can prove that it can generate enough cash to meet its maturing commitments and that will cost dearly in dilution. That level of sales buys time and loosens up the financial markets, but it is still not enough to fix the overall financial situation. |
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Post by op2778 on Aug 7, 2016 9:11:32 GMT -5
I don't know why, but people forgot about Deerfild debt. Remember that those guys could be the real enemy in this story. Honestly i don't trust them, and I'll not be surprised If they are the Hidden enemy behind courtains trying to force MNKD into BK.
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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 7, 2016 9:26:37 GMT -5
You're out of your tree. Who do you think you're fooling??? 5000 scripts per week before November would not only bring us close to cash flow even, the share price would skyrocket and fincaning would thus not be any issue if needed. Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers. Scripts drive revenue, which is a single line on a set of financial statements. I said that 10,000 would be cash flow break-even, and I stand by that number. Why? If we take the trending price per Rx of 533 (off the chart that Liane updates weekly) 10,000 scripts would yield $21 million a month in revenue. What does that $21 million need to cover? 1. The contract sales force, which we know costs around $10 million / month. 2. R&D. Everyone talks about how great Technosphere will be, but it will be worthless without further research. R&D has been averaging $2 million / month. 3. General & Administrative expenses averaged $3.3 million a month in 2015, $2.5 million for the first quarter. Call it $3 million / month. 4. Production cost averaged $5.6 million a month in 2015, and $2.5 million in the first quarter. That was to support very limited sales volumes; if the company is successful with relaunch the cost per month will scale up accordingly. It will not be linear, due to production economies of scale, but the number will substantially larger. 5. Working capital, like accounts receivable, was Sanofi's problem. Now that has to be financed by Mannkind's balance sheet and that is a use of cash that doesn't hit the income statement. 6. The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million. So add all of that up, and you will see that it might take substantially more than 10,000 scripts to reach cash flow break even. In the meantime, the company will burn cash, the balance sheet will deteriorate, and that is what Wall Street will be looking at. Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion on the revenue needed to support the organization as it is today, and 5,000 scripts per week just isn't enough. Many on this forum advocate dropping the unit selling price to drive penetration, but that would require even more scripts to make up the shortfall in revenue so that really isn't a feasible solution either. With 5,000 scripts the share price would move up, no doubt about that, but the financing terms will still be tough until the company can prove that it can generate enough cash to meet its maturing commitments and that will cost dearly in dilution. That level of sales buys time and loosens up the financial markets, but it is still not enough to fix the overall financial situation. "The contract sales force which we know costs around $10 million per month". I certainly don't know that. Perhaps you can explain? And the monthly cash burn rate of $10-$12 million Matt stated is a lie? |
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Post by nylefty on Aug 7, 2016 9:49:00 GMT -5
Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers. Scripts drive revenue, which is a single line on a set of financial statements. I said that 10,000 would be cash flow break-even, and I stand by that number. Why? If we take the trending price per Rx of 533 (off the chart that Liane updates weekly) 10,000 scripts would yield $21 million a month in revenue. What does that $21 million need to cover? 1. The contract sales force, which we know costs around $10 million / month. "The contract sales force which we know costs around $10 million per month". I certainly don't know that. Perhaps you can explain? And the monthly cash burn rate of $10-$12 million Matt stated is a lie? Let's see. If a sales force of 70 people is costing $10 million a month that means that each sales person is costing $142,857 a month or $1.7 million a year. Sure hope they're worth it. On the other hand, if each of the sales people is costing a more reasonable $9000 a month that would mean a total cost of $630,000 a month for 70 sales people, not "$10 million." |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 10:10:56 GMT -5
You're out of your tree. Who do you think you're fooling??? 5000 scripts per week before November would not only bring us close to cash flow even, the share price would skyrocket and fincaning would thus not be any issue if needed. Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers. Scripts drive revenue, which is a single line on a set of financial statements. I said that 10,000 would be cash flow break-even, and I stand by that number. Why? If we take the trending price per Rx of 533 (off the chart that Liane updates weekly) 10,000 scripts would yield $21 million a month in revenue. What does that $21 million need to cover? 1. The contract sales force, which we know costs around $10 million / month. 2. R&D. Everyone talks about how great Technosphere will be, but it will be worthless without further research. R&D has been averaging $2 million / month. 3. General & Administrative expenses averaged $3.3 million a month in 2015, $2.5 million for the first quarter. Call it $3 million / month. 4. Production cost averaged $5.6 million a month in 2015, and $2.5 million in the first quarter. That was to support very limited sales volumes; if the company is successful with relaunch the cost per month will scale up accordingly. It will not be linear, due to production economies of scale, but the number will substantially larger. 5. Working capital, like accounts receivable, was Sanofi's problem. Now that has to be financed by Mannkind's balance sheet and that is a use of cash that doesn't hit the income statement. 6. The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million. From what I have gathered from all the conf calls, monthly expenses as of now including commercial org + Research and Development + General and Administrative expenses are running about 10 million a month - make it 12 mil a month. it was mentioned just the commercial org would cost 20 mil for the rest of the year and I was assuming its included in the monthly. but ofcourse as with everything its not always str8 fwd with management. we just have to wait for the update in earnings and possibly 10q? |
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 7, 2016 10:11:52 GMT -5
Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers. Scripts drive revenue, which is a single line on a set of financial statements. I said that 10,000 would be cash flow break-even, and I stand by that number. Why? If we take the trending price per Rx of 533 (off the chart that Liane updates weekly) 10,000 scripts would yield $21 million a month in revenue. What does that $21 million need to cover? 1. The contract sales force, which we know costs around $10 million / month. 2. R&D. Everyone talks about how great Technosphere will be, but it will be worthless without further research. R&D has been averaging $2 million / month. 3. General & Administrative expenses averaged $3.3 million a month in 2015, $2.5 million for the first quarter. Call it $3 million / month. 4. Production cost averaged $5.6 million a month in 2015, and $2.5 million in the first quarter. That was to support very limited sales volumes; if the company is successful with relaunch the cost per month will scale up accordingly. It will not be linear, due to production economies of scale, but the number will substantially larger. 5. Working capital, like accounts receivable, was Sanofi's problem. Now that has to be financed by Mannkind's balance sheet and that is a use of cash that doesn't hit the income statement. 6. The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million. So add all of that up, and you will see that it might take substantially more than 10,000 scripts to reach cash flow break even. In the meantime, the company will burn cash, the balance sheet will deteriorate, and that is what Wall Street will be looking at. Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion on the revenue needed to support the organization as it is today, and 5,000 scripts per week just isn't enough. Many on this forum advocate dropping the unit selling price to drive penetration, but that would require even more scripts to make up the shortfall in revenue so that really isn't a feasible solution either. With 5,000 scripts the share price would move up, no doubt about that, but the financing terms will still be tough until the company can prove that it can generate enough cash to meet its maturing commitments and that will cost dearly in dilution. That level of sales buys time and loosens up the financial markets, but it is still not enough to fix the overall financial situation. "The contract sales force which we know costs around $10 million per month". I certainly don't know that. Perhaps you can explain? And the monthly cash burn rate of $10-$12 million Matt stated is a lie? I think Matt's numbers above are misleading. I could argue lower expenses/cash burn but his overall point is correct... we need a lot more scripts to break even! I honestly think 600 scripts is the most important number! Why? Think about it, if mnkd can reach scripts equal to Sanofi in the same amount of time or less then Sanofi better watch out! Settlement coming! Sanofi has 1200-1500? reps in US and Mnkd does it with 60! You tell me how that looks for Sanofi in court?? I also believe we need DTC advertising like TV commercials to reach large script counts to break even. PTs must ask doctors for afrezza. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 10:23:00 GMT -5
"The contract sales force which we know costs around $10 million per month". I certainly don't know that. Perhaps you can explain? And the monthly cash burn rate of $10-$12 million Matt stated is a lie? Let's see. If a sales force of 70 people is costing $10 million a month that means that each sales person is costing $142,857 a month or $1.7 million a year. Sure hope they're worth it. On the other hand, if each of the sales people is costing a more reasonable $9000 a month that would mean a total cost of $630,000 a month for 70 sales people, not "$10 million." Thats more than Matt or Mike earns? |
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