|
|
Post by orlon on Aug 30, 2016 11:21:11 GMT -5
Can anyone suggest why the stock price keeps falling like a rock?? On a side note, I saw a story on Skynews this morning about the record number of foot amputations due to type 2 diabetes in England. Comment?
|
|
|
|
Post by madog365 on Aug 30, 2016 11:37:14 GMT -5
percentage of the daily share volume - that are shorted is at the highest level it has been this year... the question is how and why are the shorts so confident to short a stock under a buck that heavily? IMO it's because they know the one thing that can cause this to surge right now is the weekly scripts rising and mannkind has basically told us that is not gonna happen until September due to the medicare issue.
|
|
|
|
Post by matt on Aug 30, 2016 11:45:51 GMT -5
The reason the price is dropping is that the market has not seen any compelling data that it should go the other direction. Anybody that owns a calculator can figure out that a financing is coming soon, and that is causing an overhang on the share price. The only upside to the scenario as this point is robust revenue growth and that has not happened. While I agree with Mike that you can't run a company looking at week to week script numbers, you can run an investment portfolio that way and that is precisely what some people do. Personally, I would get the financing done and over with before the price drops so low that even doing a financing is called into question. There is an old saying in biotech "take money when you can get it, not when you need it". The company can probably still get it at this point, but soon they will need it and that is when the real bottom feeders will show up.
As for diabetic neuropathy, I have looked at more nasty pictures of that than I care to remember (I have done multiple clinical trials with multiple therapeutic approaches). Diabetics develop microvascular disease of all types which is why they also have a higher incidence of heart disease and cerebrovascular stroke. When the pipes get clogged, oxygen and nutrients cannot reach the tissue and it dies, and the first place this happens is in the toes, then the foot, then the lower leg. Most diabetics are not athletes to begin with, but when they lose a foot they are forced to become 100% sedentary for the rest of their life and their overall health status declines.
At that point there is really not a cure that will help them, which is why everyone needs to keep their HbA1c under 6.5%. No amount of insulin will clear the pipes once they are clogged, but diet, exercise, and medication can help prevent the problem.
|
|
|
|
Post by madog365 on Aug 30, 2016 12:30:08 GMT -5
The reason the price is dropping is that the market has not seen any compelling data that it should go the other direction. Anybody that owns a calculator can figure out that a financing is coming soon, and that is causing an overhang on the share price. The only upside to the scenario as this point is robust revenue growth and that has not happened. While I agree with Mike that you can't run a company looking at week to week script numbers, you can run an investment portfolio that way and that is precisely what some people do. Personally, I would get the financing done and over with before the price drops so low that even doing a financing is called into question. There is an old saying in biotech "take money when you can get it, not when you need it". The company can probably still get it at this point, but soon they will need it and that is when the real bottom feeders will show up. As for diabetic neuropathy, I have looked at more nasty pictures of that than I care to remember (I have done multiple clinical trials with multiple therapeutic approaches). Diabetics develop microvascular disease of all types which is why they also have a higher incidence of heart disease and cerebrovascular stroke. When the pipes get clogged, oxygen and nutrients cannot reach the tissue and it dies, and the first place this happens is in the toes, then the foot, then the lower leg. Most diabetics are not athletes to begin with, but when they lose a foot they are forced to become 100% sedentary for the rest of their life and their overall health status declines. At that point there is really not a cure that will help them, which is why everyone needs to keep their HbA1c under 6.5%. No amount of insulin will clear the pipes once they are clogged, but diet, exercise, and medication can help prevent the problem. I don't agree with your statement that a financing is coming "soon". Every statement by the company has said they have enough cash available to make it through until Q2 of 2017. That would be the earliest if Afrezza sales do not take off. Please break out your calculator and tell me how Matt and team have been misleading us in their quarterly calls. Every one of your posts is a soft bash of this company. I have yet to see you say anything positive regarding Mannkind at all. |
|
|
|
Post by madog365 on Aug 30, 2016 12:45:14 GMT -5
to add to my earlier post:
How management inadvertently invited the short attack we are experiencing over the last week:
Prior to the quarterly call and ensuing Q&A there were three big potential catalysts that could lift the PPS instantly and warrant short covering.
1. Technosphere pipeline developments
2. International deal for Afrezza
3. Afrezza Sales take off in the US
So what happened?
Well management told that the focus was only on #3 and that #1 and #2 are off the table in the near term. The next thing that happened was management told us that actually #3 will be delayed further because of medicare issues. With all #'s off the table until at least September, there is nothing to fear on the short side (outside of a company buy-out). I expect that we'll see some covering start sometime next week as we get #3 back on track.
|
|
|
|
Post by mnkdnewb on Aug 30, 2016 12:52:00 GMT -5
Disagree. I believe the company has stated they have enough cash to get into q1 2017. Either way, they are required to have a certain amount of cash on hand. With the amount of cash currently vs waiting until April 1 (amount of cash you say we have), any financing deal is going to be quite painful. If sales really start picking up IMHO we still need $100,000,000 to get us to cash flow break even, but we also have debt payments and clinical trials so we might need more than that.
I am very tempted to buy again right now, but I think I'm going to hold off for another few weeks (if I buy back in at all). RSI is the lowest it's been in over a year - including January 6/7... SOOO tempting because I think it'll go up from here at least short term
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2016 12:57:43 GMT -5
In the absence of news I'd say the price is dropping due to a controlled sell. Somebody has decided to reduce their position and is doing so over a period of time. Nobody needs a rehash of the possible reasons why but I'd add that it could also just be as simple as a reshuffling of portfolios. With the price dropping below 1/share, could be as simple as following internal policy on holdings. This can happen at the 5/dollar a share threshold as well.
|
|
|
|
Post by therealisaching on Aug 30, 2016 13:11:12 GMT -5
to add to my earlier post: How management inadvertently invited the short attack we are experiencing over the last week: Prior to the quarterly call and ensuing Q&A there were three big potential catalysts that could lift the PPS instantly and warrant short covering. 1. Technosphere pipeline developments 2. International deal for Afrezza 3. Afrezza Sales take off in the US So what happened? Well management told that the focus was only on #3 and that #1 and #2 are off the table in the near term. The next thing that happened was management told us that actually #3 will be delayed further because of medicare issues. With all #'s off the table until at least September, there is nothing to fear on the short side (outside of a company buy-out). I expect that we'll see some covering start sometime next week as we get #3 back on track. Agree they stressed #3 on the call. Ironically, it was the insider buys, imo that triggered this weeks decline. Even though #1 & #2 were put in the back seat the purchases confirmed there would be no surprises on the upside in this blackout window.
I'm still long. Added today at .681. I believe in Mike & Matt.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2016 13:29:52 GMT -5
In the absence of news I'd say the price is dropping due to a controlled sell. Somebody has decided to reduce their position and is doing so over a period of time. Nobody needs a rehash of the possible reasons why but I'd add that it could also just be as simple as a reshuffling of portfolios. With the price dropping below 1/share, could be as simple as following internal policy on holdings. This can happen at the 5/dollar a share threshold as well. IMO The Mann Foundation is selling some of its shares. Theres going to be a nice trade in here soon. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2016 13:38:00 GMT -5
The reason the price is dropping is that the market has not seen any compelling data that it should go the other direction. Anybody that owns a calculator can figure out that a financing is coming soon, and that is causing an overhang on the share price. The only upside to the scenario as this point is robust revenue growth and that has not happened. While I agree with Mike that you can't run a company looking at week to week script numbers, you can run an investment portfolio that way and that is precisely what some people do. Personally, I would get the financing done and over with before the price drops so low that even doing a financing is called into question. There is an old saying in biotech "take money when you can get it, not when you need it". The company can probably still get it at this point, but soon they will need it and that is when the real bottom feeders will show up. As for diabetic neuropathy, I have looked at more nasty pictures of that than I care to remember (I have done multiple clinical trials with multiple therapeutic approaches). Diabetics develop microvascular disease of all types which is why they also have a higher incidence of heart disease and cerebrovascular stroke. When the pipes get clogged, oxygen and nutrients cannot reach the tissue and it dies, and the first place this happens is in the toes, then the foot, then the lower leg. Most diabetics are not athletes to begin with, but when they lose a foot they are forced to become 100% sedentary for the rest of their life and their overall health status declines. At that point there is really not a cure that will help them, which is why everyone needs to keep their HbA1c under 6.5%. No amount of insulin will clear the pipes once they are clogged, but diet, exercise, and medication can help prevent the problem. So you think it a certainty dilution is on the way? What if MNKD gets some insulin put money from Sanofi along with milestone money from the Receptor Life Sciences deal? Even if it were $40mm, if Mike C's plan has legs and we have enough cash to keep the lights on through the end of April or May 2017 and NRx and TRx show solid steady growth, won't that be enough to drive SP a bit and then if MNKD needs to sell more shares, it is not as dilutive? I don't think sales growth will be such that SP will grow a lot by end of Sept or Oct but 4-5 months good growth, and SP would see some upside growth, No? |
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Aug 30, 2016 13:39:27 GMT -5
Institutional investors with more than 5% and 10% of the outstanding shares are required to report any transactions to the SEC, so any development like what @reverselo is describing would become public knowledge. The last time I looked (and posted) the Mann Group had increased its holdings by 2 million shares.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2016 13:41:45 GMT -5
So you think it a certainty dilution is on the way? What if MNKD gets some insulin put money from Sanofi along with milestone money from the Receptor Life Sciences deal? Even if it were $40mm, if Mike C's plan has legs and we have enough cash to keep the lights on through the end of April or May 2017 and NRx and TRx show solid steady growth, won't that be enough to drive SP a bit and then if MNKD needs to sell more shares, it is not as dilutive? I don't think sales growth will be such that SP will grow a lot by end of Sept or Oct but 4-5 months good growth, and SP would see some upside growth, No? plus the revenue from August 1st till the year end - 4 months excluding August |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2016 13:47:30 GMT -5
Institutional investors with more than 5% and 10% of the outstanding shares are required to report any transactions to the SEC, so any development like what @reverselo is describing would become public knowledge. The last time I looked (and posted) the Mann Group had increased its holdings by 2 million shares. I saw your post. Wasn't that increase dated prior to the foundation informing MNKD that they could sell some or all shares. Something changed in those couple of months as they are opposite directions. I am aware that they must report but what I do not know is when it has to be reported by. The timing of the insider buys are to coincidental, IMO. |
|
|
|
Post by broncolife on Aug 30, 2016 14:41:03 GMT -5
I added to my position today. In for a penny, in for a pound! The current Mgmt. team has accomplished the unthinkable in a very short time. Patience is a bitter tree that bears the sweetest fruit.
|
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Aug 30, 2016 15:53:14 GMT -5
There is dilution coming one way or the other. The best case is via the ATM, the worst case is we have to go back to the vultures. It cannot be done as a loan because Sanofi and Deerfield have first call on the assets and their debt is big enough to consume the lot so no security remains. There is also the overhang of another 50 million shares sitting out there in warrants from the last funding exercise.
|
|
