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Post by matt on Aug 30, 2016 16:05:45 GMT -5
I don't agree with your statement that a financing is coming "soon". Every statement by the company has said they have enough cash available to make it through until Q2 of 2017. That would be the earliest if Afrezza sales do not take off. Please break out your calculator and tell me how Matt and team have been misleading us in their quarterly calls. Every one of your posts is a soft bash of this company. I have yet to see you say anything positive regarding Mannkind at all. My background is finance and biotech, and I have seen way too many companies crash and burn due to weak balance sheets. I know what Matt has said, but his statements simply are not credible when the stock is trading at these levels. We know how much money the company had as of June 30, and you can make your own guesses as to what the current burn is but I make it about $9 million a month. The $30.1 million in credit from the Mann Group is real, they don't have the option to pull the plug on that facility (Deerfield Partners made sure of that), but the ATM is a different matter. The last few days have shown exactly how weak the demand is for this stock, and use of an ATM facility means that the company has to dump new shares into the market, essentially all at the bid price. If the company does that, it will further crush its own stock price. Until demand for shares improves considerably the ATM is more a theoretical source of financing than a real one. So Matt is not exactly lying when he say he has access to enough cash to get to Q2, but you wouldn't like to know what the stock price will be if he pulls the trigger on the ATM.
I will concede that other payments might magically appear, like an RLS milestone, but since that contract was redacted we don't know what the milestones are or their magnitude. Those other payments can't be guaranteed, or even assessed given the information that is in the filings. As I said, use your own numbers but I put the cash at around $18 million at the moment (net of the $25 million requirement from Deerfield) plus the $30 million from the Mann Group makes it $48 million. At a burn of $9 million a month, that leaves about five months of cash or late January before the tank runs completely dry. I have done lots of raises for NASDAQ traded companies, and I can tell you that it is darn near impossible to get a deal closed between Thanksgiving and New Year's, and the company does not what to be raising money in January when they are down to the last last nickels and dimes. So yes, I do believe there will have to be a money raise before Thanksgiving, which is less than three months away. To me a window of less than three months is "soon".
As for my opinions of this company, you must not read my comments very closely so let me repeat them here. I think management is doing an excellent job given the resources they have at their disposal. Introducing any new technology is tough, and without a large sales force it is very hard to do. I have run biotechs and I have been where Matt and Mike are, and right now they probably feel like General Custer at the Little Big Horn. They inherited a weak label and a weaker balance sheet, neither of which is their doing. The drug works and it is helping a lot of patients, and anything that helps diabetics is good.
Telling the truth like I see it is not a soft bash; nobody has every accused me of having a soft opinion anything. My very firm opinion is that the company has a real issue with its cash position and that is why the shorts have not covered even though the stock is trading at 70 cents. Matt needs to fix the balance sheet if he wants to buy enough time to make the drug successful. This drug is not going to skyrocket in the next few months so it will take some time to get there, but time costs money.
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Post by madog365 on Aug 30, 2016 16:44:16 GMT -5
I don't agree with your statement that a financing is coming "soon". Every statement by the company has said they have enough cash available to make it through until Q2 of 2017. That would be the earliest if Afrezza sales do not take off. Please break out your calculator and tell me how Matt and team have been misleading us in their quarterly calls. Every one of your posts is a soft bash of this company. I have yet to see you say anything positive regarding Mannkind at all. My background is finance and biotech, and I have seen way too many companies crash and burn due to weak balance sheets. I know what Matt has said, but his statements simply are not credible when the stock is trading at these levels. You could have stopped your post after this sentence. You are telling us that Matt and team have been LYING to the shareholders regarding the cash burn rate and their projection as to when the money will run dry. Or am i to believe an anonymous member of a message board telling us that financing will be needed within 3 months instead of the CEO/CFO who has made his timetable public? It's very clear to me where you stand on this company. You are not here typing up paragraphs for the purpose of simply educating others here.
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Post by prvs on Aug 30, 2016 16:49:59 GMT -5
I have found matt's comments informative and helpful. There have been many times after reading one of his comments that I've said "so that's what's going on". He's not a soft basher, he simply interprets situations based on a wealth of experience and knowledge he's gained by being in the industry. I put a lot more faith in his interpretations than in Matt P's carefully worded spins of whatever is transpiring. For instance, Matt has told us mnkd has a milestone payment coming from RLS in Q4, but he won't say how much. With over 100m to be earned, you could assume a good chunk like 25%. But Im going with matt's opinion that there's no way to know. Nuff said.
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Post by madog365 on Aug 30, 2016 16:55:05 GMT -5
I have found matt's comments informative and helpful. There have been many times after reading one of his comments that I've said "so that's what's going on". He's not a soft basher, he simply interprets situations based on a wealth of experience and knowledge he's gained by being in the industry. I put a lot more faith in his interpretations than in Matt P's carefully worded spins of whatever is transpiring. For instance, Matt has told us mnkd has a milestone payment coming from RLS in Q4, but he won't say how much. With over 100m to be earned, you could assume a good chunk like 25%. But Im going with matt's 10m because his educated guesses have to be better than mine. Nuff said. So you trust Matt Proboards over Matt Pffefer? That's gotta bring confidence to MNKD investors.
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A rock...
Aug 30, 2016 17:06:10 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by mannmade on Aug 30, 2016 17:06:10 GMT -5
I believe Matt P''s exact words were, as I recall, mnkd will have enough money to take us into 1st Q 17. I do not remember him being more specific such as end of the Q.
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Post by sccrbrg on Aug 30, 2016 17:09:51 GMT -5
I believe Matt P''s exact words were, as I recall, mnkd will have enough money to take us into 1st Q 17. I do not remember him being more specific such as end of the Q. But the real question is, does that include the ATM money? If it does, I tend to agree with proboards matt. The lower the shareprice, the more they will have to dilute via the ATM and the more the share price plummets.
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Post by mannmade on Aug 30, 2016 17:21:57 GMT -5
My only point was that we do not have an exact date for end of current cash balance. Rather it is an approximation for a period in time.
I do agree that will need to do before Nov as I also have considerable experience and it is much harder to do business during the holidays starting the middle of the wk before TG.
On the other hand I am more than confident that Matt P is aware of all this and for all I/we know he may already be lining it up.
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Post by compound26 on Aug 30, 2016 17:23:48 GMT -5
I believe Matt P''s exact words were, as I recall, mnkd will have enough money to take us into 1st Q 17. I do not remember him being more specific such as end of the Q. I agree. That is also what I recall. But I believe, based on the available and expected cash, they should have enough cash to last towards the end of 1st quarter, while still have enough cash and ATM available at that point for them to secure further financing in the next quarter or so. See my projection in another post (link below). However, to say "we have enough cash to last us into first quarter of 2017" will not be a conflict with any financing that Mannking may seek before first quarter 2017 (such as anytime this year), as any financing they seek will then further extend their runway into the future. Also, as for RLS milestone, even though the contract has a total possible milestone payments of $100 million plus, I will be satisfied to get $10 milestone payment for this year. I don't think we will get a milestone this year of $25 million or anything like that. mnkd.proboards.com/post/77661/thread
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 30, 2016 17:53:17 GMT -5
There is dilution coming one way or the other. The best case is via the ATM, the worst case is we have to go back to the vultures. It cannot be done as a loan because Sanofi and Deerfield have first call on the assets and their debt is big enough to consume the lot so no security remains. There is also the overhang of another 50 million shares sitting out there in warrants from the last funding exercise. How low would it need to go (in next week or so with current state of info) that would make you a buyer?
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Post by op2778 on Aug 30, 2016 18:24:16 GMT -5
Hello Matt,
I'm wondering: because of Your expertise, do you think is possible to fix MNKD balance sheet?
Beside (and I'm going to play the ignorant paper here), how is possible that none of the big guys out there don't put 200mm to Buy shares in open market? At today close, MNKD has a Market Cap of 314mm aprox. Can you just think for 1second If some guy like Ackman (i know, he is busy with is little toy VRX and his small battle against Herbalife), Buffet (playing safe buying Apple), Icahn (playing against Ackman) decide just for a second to buy half of shares in The market What could happen? Honestly, isn't necessary to Buy 200mm, just buying 50mm will be The Avalanche that will bury shorts.
impossible scenario? Probably, but, those guys, that always think about returns, could get an unbelievable return just in second.
Mr Al Was a big philanthropist and nobody out there is willing to play the Hero paper helping MNKD and Mr AL memory? How is that possible? My father always says to me: in life If you help, you will get help when needed. How many people Mr Al helped during his life?
About Matt Pfeffer: i admit he is under a terrible pressure, nonetheless he is not a good CEO. I just remember when during a CC he said: we are minutes away of a deal and when that CC finished, he diluited share price.
honestly, i think proboards Matt is better than Matt Pfeffer, at least he is clear and talks loud and clear.
op
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 30, 2016 18:31:38 GMT -5
Hello Matt, I'm wondering: because of Your expertise, do you think is possible to fix MNKD balance sheet? Beside (and I'm going to play the ignorant paper here), how is possible that none of the big guys out there don't put 200mm to Buy shares in open market? At today close, MNKD has a Market Cap of 314mm aprox. Can you just think for 1second If some guy like Ackman (i know, he is busy with is little toy VRX and his small battle against Herbalife), Buffet (playing safe buying Apple), Icahn (playing against Ackman) decide just for a second to buy half of shares in The market What could happen? Honestly, isn't necessary to Buy 200mm, just buying 50mm will be The Avalanche that will bury shorts. impossible scenario? Probably, but, those guys, that always think about returns, could get an unbelievable return just in second. Mr Al Was a big philanthropist and nobody out there is willing to play the Hero paper helping MNKD and Mr AL memory? How is that possible? My father always says to me: in life If you help, you will get help when needed. How many people Mr Al helped during his life? About Matt Pfeffer: i admit he is under a terrible pressure, nonetheless he is not a good CEO. I just remember when during a CC he said: we are minutes away of a deal and when that CC finished, he diluited share price. honestly, i think proboards Matt is better than Matt Pfeffer, at least he is clear and talks loud and clear. op Yes, based on daily volume someone buying 50M shares over any short time period would drive the price up... selling those shares to realize the profit would just as quickly drive the price down, unless there is some credible story that convinces a significant number of other people that they should be paying way more than what they currently are unwilling to pay.
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Post by nadathing on Aug 30, 2016 18:34:35 GMT -5
"I just remember when during a CC he said: we are minutes away of a deal and when that CC finished, he diluited share price".
Matt never said we are minutes away from a deal. He said he was contacted by a couple of parties that were previously interested in Afrezza..
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Post by sophie on Aug 30, 2016 19:05:47 GMT -5
My background is finance and biotech, and I have seen way too many companies crash and burn due to weak balance sheets. I know what Matt has said, but his statements simply are not credible when the stock is trading at these levels. You could have stopped your post after this sentence. You are telling us that Matt and team have been LYING to the shareholders regarding the cash burn rate and their projection as to when the money will run dry. Or am i to believe an anonymous member of a message board telling us that financing will be needed within 3 months instead of the CEO/CFO who has made his timetable public? It's very clear to me where you stand on this company. You are not here typing up paragraphs for the purpose of simply educating others here. I'm not sure if this is helpful, but you don't have to accept 100% of what Matt is saying. Just because he has an opinion on the matter doesn't change the course of his argument. He still presents facts and outlines his interpretation of those facts. That he might be incorrect on exactly how long we have based on how much the monthly expenses are, the path he's laid out doesn't change much. Just shift it up/down 1-2 months. I don't trust anyone 100% on this board. I read bits and pieces here and there and think for myself based off what makes sense to me. I think there are far more pumpers than bashers on this site. I've seen more "rally the troops" threads than Chicken Little threads. I don't mind because I don't come here for support. It's an easy read to pass the time and there is a lot of good research here for both sides. You're allowed to be long and "stuck". This stock is too stressful for me. I'm sure my outlook will change if I break even, but I think I'm ready to walk away from this one if I can. I love the thought of helping people, but there are less stressful and more effective ways of doing it.
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Post by nylefty on Aug 30, 2016 19:07:50 GMT -5
About Matt Pfeffer: i admit he is under a terrible pressure, nonetheless he is not a good CEO. I just remember when during a CC he said: we are minutes away of a deal and when that CC finished, he diluited share price. honestly, i think proboards Matt is better than Matt Pfeffer, at least he is clear and talks loud and clear. op Matt Pfeffer said no such thing. And Proboards Matt has never explained his absurd assertion that the MannKind sales force is costing "$10 million a month." That may have sounded "clear," but it was also ridiculous.
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 30, 2016 19:22:35 GMT -5
There is dilution coming one way or the other. The best case is via the ATM, the worst case is we have to go back to the vultures. It cannot be done as a loan because Sanofi and Deerfield have first call on the assets and their debt is big enough to consume the lot so no security remains. There is also the overhang of another 50 million shares sitting out there in warrants from the last funding exercise. How low would it need to go (in next week or so with current state of info) that would make you a buyer? Short answer is in the near term I wouldn't. I cannot see a catalyst to reverse the downward drift this side of the next earnings call and to Matt's earlier point I think we will need more funding before then which will hammer the price again. So the answer is after the later of next earnings call or the funding closes. I am actively building a position in Jan 2018 1.00 calls slowly and steadily though and may start another in the 0.50 calls. If things haven't turned around by then it will all be over.
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