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Post by chuck on Aug 30, 2016 19:29:02 GMT -5
My background is finance and biotech, and I have seen way too many companies crash and burn due to weak balance sheets. I know what Matt has said, but his statements simply are not credible when the stock is trading at these levels. You could have stopped your post after this sentence. You are telling us that Matt and team have been LYING to the shareholders regarding the cash burn rate and their projection as to when the money will run dry. Or am i to believe an anonymous member of a message board telling us that financing will be needed within 3 months instead of the CEO/CFO who has made his timetable public? It's very clear to me where you stand on this company. You are not here typing up paragraphs for the purpose of simply educating others here. Actually they aren't lying at all. They are telling you the bank accounts are expected to run dry in Q1/17 and then of course everyone does the dot connecting and immediately infer an offering in Q1/17. However, they never ruled out an offering in Q4 did they? Proboards matt is saying is that this scenario (Q4 equity raise) is a good possibility (and maybe a prudent course of action). My experience with nyse financing's is the same as Matt's on nasdaq. Generally an offering after thanksgiving is generally not a good idea unless you are going to market with strength. A prudent management team might not wait until the bank accounts run dry or close to it. Depending on the type of offering you are doing, different things can delay, some of which aren't under your control. Having said that, I would put a higher probability on a Q1/17 offering and a lower probability on a Q4/16 offering (but not rule it out by any means).
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Post by mannmade on Aug 30, 2016 19:33:37 GMT -5
aged, I tend to agree with you for the most part, but there are two sides to the dilution coin... Consider if in fact we begin to see a sustained and consistent increase in TRx, NRx and retention even if not enough by itself to move the share price up, when combined with the new financing (which I expect will not be on the most favorable terms), AND the new financing then takes the money issue off the table for, let's say 12 months, then I think it is possible that the decrease in share price may not be as great. imho... How's that for a run-on sentence?
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Aug 30, 2016 20:03:03 GMT -5
Is it possible they are using the ATM option now? 1. MNKD needs to tap their financing option sooner than later 2. That would explain the forceful downward pressure on SP I find it hard to believe that nobody has mentioned that possibility in this thread, so I figure it is probably not an option yet. Is it?
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Post by op2778 on Aug 30, 2016 20:49:40 GMT -5
I don't have time to read again all the CC, but i remember him (mic went mute for a moment) saying that.
The he matter is that during that famous CC, he was asked If there will be some diluition and he said NO. Just minutes away of CC finished, boom diluition. Did you remember that?
I also remember him saying something about layers working some documents (they started that CC delayed) and The reason Was because of a deal very close.
well, that said, the matter is that we are near "again" to 52wk low.......
about 10mm: Probably Matt proboards is talking about Quarter "cash burn" not about sales burn (we are clear that cash burn is about 9-10mm per quarter If I'm not wrong).
that said, we need to understand that The product works, users Love it but The BIG ISSUE are sales numbers. Like i said in previous post, we need to give time to sales team, but like someone said: time has a cost. That's true, and we are going to pay that time with more diluition.
When? I have no idea, could be in 3months, could be sooner or later, but we need to be prepared.
Conclusion: I'm long, ready to face My loss If necessary but I'm not blind.
OP
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Post by op2778 on Aug 30, 2016 20:55:47 GMT -5
In November, are going to be available 2019 calls/puts. I'll wait those leaps to add to position (hope we will be in business by then). OP
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Post by kball on Aug 30, 2016 20:57:17 GMT -5
This was my first Get-Broke-Quickly scheme
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 30, 2016 21:49:48 GMT -5
Is it possible they are using the ATM option now? 1. MNKD needs to tap their financing option sooner than later 2. That would explain the forceful downward pressure on SP I find it hard to believe that nobody has mentioned that possibility in this thread, so I figure it is probably not an option yet. Is it? I didn't think of that, but now that you mention it ... it wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Post by gamblerjag on Aug 30, 2016 23:27:30 GMT -5
How would anyone in the public know outside of MNKD Board if they tapped into their reserves. Nothng has been announced. Doubt hat is the reason for the downward pressure.
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 31, 2016 1:36:56 GMT -5
How would anyone in the public know outside of MNKD Board if they tapped into their reserves. Nothng has been announced. Doubt hat is the reason for the downward pressure. It doesn't matter whether anyone in the public knows it. ATM financing (as I understand it) means the option of selling shares on the open market at prevailing market price. Downward pressure comes from that on its own.
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Post by liane on Aug 31, 2016 4:38:25 GMT -5
In November, are going to be available 2019 calls/puts. I'll wait those leaps to add to position (hope we will be in business by then). OP Actually, Oct 17th, but who's counting. Just didn't want for you to sleep through it.
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Post by prvs on Aug 31, 2016 5:56:57 GMT -5
I have found matt's comments informative and helpful. There have been many times after reading one of his comments that I've said "so that's what's going on". He's not a soft basher, he simply interprets situations based on a wealth of experience and knowledge he's gained by being in the industry. I put a lot more faith in his interpretations than in Matt P's carefully worded spins of whatever is transpiring. For instance, Matt has told us mnkd has a milestone payment coming from RLS in Q4, but he won't say how much. With over 100m to be earned, you could assume a good chunk like 25%. But Im going with matt's 10m because his educated guesses have to be better than mine. Nuff said. So you trust Matt Proboards over Matt Pffefer? That's gotta bring confidence to MNKD investors. While it would be extremely gratifying to think MY opinion would sway ALL MNKD investors, I sincerely think that is not the case. In my opinion (there's that word again) Matt P is paid to spin. to redirect and to control the information he offers. I always take his words and sprinkle a little salt on them. Makes them more palatable.
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Post by prvs on Aug 31, 2016 5:58:54 GMT -5
I don't have time to read again all the CC, but i remember him (mic went mute for a moment) saying that. The he matter is that during that famous CC, he was asked If there will be some diluition and he said NO. Just minutes away of CC finished, boom diluition. Did you remember that?
I also remember him saying something about layers working some documents (they started that CC delayed) and The reason Was because of a deal very close. well, that said, the matter is that we are near "again" to 52wk low....... about 10mm: Probably Matt proboards is talking about Quarter "cash burn" not about sales burn (we are clear that cash burn is about 9-10mm per quarter If I'm not wrong). that said, we need to understand that The product works, users Love it but The BIG ISSUE are sales numbers. Like i said in previous post, we need to give time to sales team, but like someone said: time has a cost. That's true, and we are going to pay that time with more diluition. When? I have no idea, could be in 3months, could be sooner or later, but we need to be prepared. Conclusion: I'm long, ready to face My loss If necessary but I'm not blind. OP Thus the "seasoning" I apply to Matt's words
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A rock...
Aug 31, 2016 7:37:58 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by smwill77 on Aug 31, 2016 7:37:58 GMT -5
I have found matt's comments informative and helpful. There have been many times after reading one of his comments that I've said "so that's what's going on". He's not a soft basher, he simply interprets situations based on a wealth of experience and knowledge he's gained by being in the industry. I put a lot more faith in his interpretations than in Matt P's carefully worded spins of whatever is transpiring. For instance, Matt has told us mnkd has a milestone payment coming from RLS in Q4, but he won't say how much. With over 100m to be earned, you could assume a good chunk like 25%. But Im going with matt's 10m because his educated guesses have to be better than mine. Nuff said. So you trust Matt Proboards over Matt Pffefer? That's gotta bring confidence to MNKD investors. To be completely honest, yes, I trust anonymous Matt WAY more than Matt P.
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Post by madog365 on Aug 31, 2016 8:21:52 GMT -5
So you trust Matt Proboards over Matt Pffefer? That's gotta bring confidence to MNKD investors. To be completely honest, yes, I trust anonymous Matt WAY more than Matt P. From the responses i have seen thus far, this seems to be the what majority of users on this forum feel. In that case, you should not be surprised as to what is currently happening with the share price. When shareholders have no confidence/trust in leadership and put more weight into the words of an anonymous (message)board member over a real board member we have a bigger issue then i thought. I for one completely disagree with the sentiment here about Matt. Everyone is quick to forget that before Mike took over his outside facing role, Matt was doing it all himself. He was running the company, the books, the communications on twitter and facebook, going to conferences, answering shareholder emails, and everything in between and out (for 5 months during the most criticized (and critical) period in MNKD history). He then hired Mike and handed off many of those duties which is why we don't hear from him much anymore. I don't believe he has misled us to date, and believe him and the rest of the Mannkind team when they say that they don't foresee any additional financing being needed for this Afrezza relaunch until Q1 of 2017. And that's assuming we don't see sales take off. I guess i am naive but the second that i start to think i am being outright lied to by management i will sell my shares. BTW here is what Matt said regarding future financing: "Finally, we needed to ensure that we have the necessary financial resources to give us the time to change the commercial trajectory of Afrezza. Accordingly, we executed a financing in May, which provides a sufficient runway to get us into the first quarter of next year. At the same time, we continue to weigh the value proposition of every expenditure the company makes to make our existing and anticipated cash last as far as far into 2017 as possible. Should we need to raise additional funds, we want to allow as much time as possible to demonstrate sustained commercial growth. This will ensure that if we need to finance, we will do so into the best possible circumstances. So, 2016 to date is a story of a successful pivot of the organization, transforming it into a new entity with the tools to execute on that audacious plan I mentioned earlier. The second half of 2016 will be about taking those tools and increasing sales of Afrezza."
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Post by op2778 on Aug 31, 2016 8:29:06 GMT -5
Sustained commercial........
We are all saying The same thing time over time........sales #s is what we need and need to pick up really fast. i trust Mike Castagna because of The effort and because he bought shares in open market.
i'll give them time until November. If scripts and sales doesn't pick up at a decent rate, well, I'm out.
gltu op
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