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Post by sophie on Sept 13, 2016 15:22:57 GMT -5
I'm a bit confused by this line of thinking. Unless one got in at the lowest point of our company's existence, wouldn't any subsequent shares currently also be underwater?
Are you operating under the assumption that a buyout is imminent and that there's a target number? Has anyone come up with a realistic valuation for our company? Can anyone with experience speak to that?
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Sept 13, 2016 17:47:21 GMT -5
I completely agree. I was a late starter buying Mannkind compared to most people here. I started buying at $3.80, kept adding, and am now down to about $2.00 per share average. I have sunk about 20% of my retirement savings and I am 57. But, I am completely comfortable with that current paper loss, because I entirely expect to make so much money that I actually will be able to retire. I don't understand the "just make my money back" mentality. Mannkind is just not that kind of investment. Mannkind is either Jackpot or Bust. Yeah, it may bust ... or, sell-out in such a way that we end up taking a big loss, but considering my opinion of the odds, regarding my retirement savings ... right here, right now, there is no place that I'd rather be. Good Luck to All Longs Love your spirit, Retirement Plan, but the thing about making a whole lotta money on MNKD - well, we're all bucking one big thing in that respect, and that's the number of shares outstanding (with the potential of more to come). Having a BO at about $3-$5 would be great if it happened within the next 6 mos to a year. Hey, Baba, thanks for the comment. Yes, that's the big unknown, and we are all crossing our fingers that the dilution isn't too overwhelming (if it happens). If Matt asked me for my approval of a $3-$5 buyout in 6 months  , I would deny him. If anyone is willing to pay that much money in 6 months, then that must mean that MNKD's prospects are good, and I would much rather keep gambling my money and hold out for the land of milk and honey. I've read some posters who have written awesome and inspiring stories here and who have very noble reasons for being diehard mnkd longs. I admire you all greatly. I don't have such a rich history with mnkd, and I am basically just a gambler with this stock, but I do feel a part of something much bigger. Kinda like Bernie Sander's revolution. I'm not as knowledgeable as so many contributors here, but I have been learning a lot from you all. I also subscribe to Nate's Notes and that is where I became aware of mnkd from (I have wondered how many others here also got introduced to mnkd by Nate). Nate has been ranked in the top 5 stock-pickers by Hulbert for years (despite his portfolio's misfortune with mnkd). Nate is also a steadfast long with mnkd as his largest portfolio holding and is still averaging down and recently increased his shares by another 20%. All together, I read so much more positive things about mnkd than negative. Yes, the future is unknown, but that's what makes it exciting. I know there is a chance of failure (and possibly substantial), but I have been investing on my own for 30 years and I have never had such a good gut feeling about any stock before. GLTAL Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/6214/me?page=2#ixzz4KB98uoGB |
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Post by ryanwal26 on Sept 13, 2016 21:56:16 GMT -5
The beautiful thing about MNKD and where we are at today is that we have a huge gap in share price. What i mean by that is if Afrezza does work out then technosphere is legitimized and MNKD company value will go skyrocketing. If Afrezza fails then it all fails unless somehow they get a partner for Epi and go from there. You have to be thinking Tesla Motors. The company hasn't made a profit but continues to grow and increase sales why? Because the proof of concept worked and the product was superior to anything in the market (highest Consumer Report score). As long as scripts keep going up, share price will eventually follow and we will get more financing.
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Post by akemp3000 on Sept 13, 2016 22:26:07 GMT -5
MNKD doesn't have to have skyrocketing scripts to solve the cash situation. If scripts begin to climb at a steady rate, which I believe is about to happen, new money will quickly be available from a variety of directions. Bottom line is that we are quickly approaching "THE" binary moment for MNKD. Scripts rise and the future will be so bright we'll have to wear shades. Scripts stay flat and I'll just quote a line from the movie, The Replacements..."Pain heals, chicks dig scars and glory lasts forever. Gentlemen, it's been a pleasure doing battle with you!"
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Post by rockstarrick on Sept 14, 2016 7:58:51 GMT -5
The beautiful thing about MNKD and where we are at today is that we have a huge gap in share price. What i mean by that is if Afrezza does work out then technosphere is legitimized and MNKD company value will go skyrocketing. If Afrezza fails then it all fails unless somehow they get a partner for Epi and go from there. You have to be thinking Tesla Motors. The company hasn't made a profit but continues to grow and increase sales why? Because the proof of concept worked and the product was superior to anything in the market (highest Consumer Report score). As long as scripts keep going up, share price will eventually follow and we will get more financing. And then there's the Lithium Ion Batteries !!! Samsung lost billions in MC recently, right ?? I hate to even bring it up, but I hope they get these batteries out of our planes ASAP !! I believe they are also used in the Electric Cars, (Tesla). What could possibly go wrong. |
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Post by kball on Sept 14, 2016 9:15:42 GMT -5
I see us as mostly a basket of deniables
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Post by kingedxxxxx on Sept 14, 2016 23:04:22 GMT -5
I'm a bit confused by this line of thinking. Unless one got in at the lowest point of our company's existence, wouldn't any subsequent shares currently also be underwater? Are you operating under the assumption that a buyout is imminent and that there's a target number? Has anyone come up with a realistic valuation for our company? Can anyone with experience speak to that? Sophie
That is the problem. Many think that dollar cost averaging down is the way to go. The problem is that you generally do not know when a stock has bottomed and many fall into the trap of throwing good money after bad. There are much smarter ways to invest.
A couple of quick tips. When a stock is losing value, it is better to sell or hold rather than add. Wait for something that fundamentally changes to warrant the stock moving back up again. That is when it would be time to add. There are also technical moves in a stock that can help determine times to add or reduce shares. The game of just buying and holding is generally not a winning one, especially in the biotech sector.
For a long time, the only thing that anyone should have concentrated on here is the script count. Just about everything else is noise other than anything related to the cause of resulting script counts. Personally, I will only purchase MannKind stock if there is a meaningful rise in script counts that is supported over time.
Why buy MNKD even at $1 only to watch it go to .50 and, ultimately, much lower if scripts counts do not improve? Just risking your money without any evidence that there will be a return. Why not wait until script counts show some meaningful improvement and buy on the way up? Buying at even $2 on a rally to $4 or $5 based on increasing script counts dramatically reduces risk. Almost always better to buy on the way up than the way down. You will make much more money by learning these important trading and investing tactics and sticking with them.
As far as buyout - that has been a joke for a long time. People have talked about buyout for years now. Not going to happen. As far as valuation - MannKind is not even worth its current market cap. The company needs large sums of capital which is going to further hurt shareholders. No way around it. Valuation models can only be based on real revenues at this point which relies on modeling out script counts. Well, as you know, script counts are basically meaningless and any valuation model based on scripts is not worth much more than the paper it is written on at this point.
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Post by tayl5 on Sept 14, 2016 23:29:59 GMT -5
MannKind is too worth its market cap! It's the weighted average of what it will be worth when it dominates the prandial insulin market and when the remaining assets are sold in a fire sale. The dynamic tension between the two outcomes is what makes this board interesting.
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Post by sluggobear on Sept 15, 2016 9:53:04 GMT -5
What I learned today from reading this Thread, other than I'm in the same underwater boat with a lot of others who are still hopeful:
Afrezza is the Tesla of insulin.
Wish Elon Musk was an investor.
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 15, 2016 10:05:50 GMT -5
I'm a bit confused by this line of thinking. Unless one got in at the lowest point of our company's existence, wouldn't any subsequent shares currently also be underwater? Are you operating under the assumption that a buyout is imminent and that there's a target number? Has anyone come up with a realistic valuation for our company? Can anyone with experience speak to that? Sophie
That is the problem. Many think that dollar cost averaging down is the way to go. The problem is that you generally do not know when a stock has bottomed and many fall into the trap of throwing good money after bad. There are much smarter ways to invest.
A couple of quick tips. When a stock is losing value, it is better to sell or hold rather than add. Wait for something that fundamentally changes to warrant the stock moving back up again. That is when it would be time to add. There are also technical moves in a stock that can help determine times to add or reduce shares. The game of just buying and holding is generally not a winning one, especially in the biotech sector.
For a long time, the only thing that anyone should have concentrated on here is the script count. Just about everything else is noise other than anything related to the cause of resulting script counts. Personally, I will only purchase MannKind stock if there is a meaningful rise in script counts that is supported over time.
Why buy MNKD even at $1 only to watch it go to .50 and, ultimately, much lower if scripts counts do not improve? Just risking your money without any evidence that there will be a return. Why not wait until script counts show some meaningful improvement and buy on the way up? Buying at even $2 on a rally to $4 or $5 based on increasing script counts dramatically reduces risk. Almost always better to buy on the way up than the way down. You will make much more money by learning these important trading and investing tactics and sticking with them.
As far as buyout - that has been a joke for a long time. People have talked about buyout for years now. Not going to happen. As far as valuation - MannKind is not even worth its current market cap. The company needs large sums of capital which is going to further hurt shareholders. No way around it. Valuation models can only be based on real revenues at this point which relies on modeling out script counts. Well, as you know, script counts are basically meaningless and any valuation model based on scripts is not worth much more than the paper it is written on at this point.
And who are you? "Kingedxxxx" of the reality police? We do not need realists on this board, it's very disturbing and destabilizing. The "hope lattice" which we have constructed here is somewhat brittle, and you've hurled a brick at it. I am not in agreement with your last paragraph, however the rest is good advice. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2016 10:07:14 GMT -5
I'm a bit confused by this line of thinking. Unless one got in at the lowest point of our company's existence, wouldn't any subsequent shares currently also be underwater? Are you operating under the assumption that a buyout is imminent and that there's a target number? Has anyone come up with a realistic valuation for our company? Can anyone with experience speak to that? Sophie
That is the problem. Many think that dollar cost averaging down is the way to go. The problem is that you generally do not know when a stock has bottomed and many fall into the trap of throwing good money after bad. There are much smarter ways to invest.
A couple of quick tips. When a stock is losing value, it is better to sell or hold rather than add. Wait for something that fundamentally changes to warrant the stock moving back up again. That is when it would be time to add. There are also technical moves in a stock that can help determine times to add or reduce shares. The game of just buying and holding is generally not a winning one, especially in the biotech sector.
For a long time, the only thing that anyone should have concentrated on here is the script count. Just about everything else is noise other than anything related to the cause of resulting script counts. Personally, I will only purchase MannKind stock if there is a meaningful rise in script counts that is supported over time.
Why buy MNKD even at $1 only to watch it go to .50 and, ultimately, much lower if scripts counts do not improve? Just risking your money without any evidence that there will be a return. Why not wait until script counts show some meaningful improvement and buy on the way up? Buying at even $2 on a rally to $4 or $5 based on increasing script counts dramatically reduces risk. Almost always better to buy on the way up than the way down. You will make much more money by learning these important trading and investing tactics and sticking with them.
As far as buyout - that has been a joke for a long time. People have talked about buyout for years now. Not going to happen. As far as valuation - MannKind is not even worth its current market cap. The company needs large sums of capital which is going to further hurt shareholders. No way around it. Valuation models can only be based on real revenues at this point which relies on modeling out script counts. Well, as you know, script counts are basically meaningless and any valuation model based on scripts is not worth much more than the paper it is written on at this point.
After reading your post, I think one reason people may continue to buy is fear of missing out and greed. Your suggestion to wait until there is growth in script count is certainly a way to de-risk the purchase of Mannkind shares a bit. On the other side of the trade, what happens if we start to see a nice rise in NRx and TRx and Mannkind somehow gets a non-dilutive injection of $60mm or so. That gives the company enough runway so if the current strategy has legs, by spring, there would be enough sales and cash coming in to right the ship or raise funds at a far better valuation than today. Your point is well taken though. |
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 15, 2016 10:18:49 GMT -5
"Mannkind somehow gets a non-dilutive injection of $60mm or so." Scotta, what do you have in mind here?
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Post by therealisaching on Sept 15, 2016 10:57:31 GMT -5
baba, I'll jump in. Not that its likely, but with 50-60MM in non-dilutive financing I would think the sp would jump back over $2.
It would be an interesting play for the Mann foundation to increase the line of credit. If they did & sp went to $2, the market cap goes back to $1BB & their shares back to $350MM. |
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Post by kbrion77 on Sept 15, 2016 11:11:41 GMT -5
baba, I'll jump in. Not that its likely, but with 50-60MM in non-dilutive financing I would think the sp would jump back over $2.
It would be an interesting play for the Mann foundation to increase the line of credit. If they did & sp went to $2, the market cap goes back to $1BB & their shares back to $350MM. Honestly I'm not going to be picky with non-dilutive financing if it happened but for once can they act like a real company and not lean on anything involving the Mann Foundation? Jobs got creative with Apple in 97 with Microsoft when they were on the brink. |
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Post by kingedxxxxx on Sept 15, 2016 16:09:34 GMT -5
baba, I'll jump in. Not that its likely, but with 50-60MM in non-dilutive financing I would think the sp would jump back over $2.
It would be an interesting play for the Mann foundation to increase the line of credit. If they did & sp went to $2, the market cap goes back to $1BB & their shares back to $350MM. I do like the idea of the Mann Foundation supporting the company with a non-dilutive deal in form of additional debt. At least enough to support the company for another 6-9 months. Of course, without any sign that this money will ultimately provide a real return, it may not be prudent to spend part of what is left within the Foundation as far as value in MannKind.
The share price surely would spike and take PPS back above $1. Not sure if it would triple current share price, but a double is not out of the question.
The key to any institutional or private investment into MannKind would have to be supported by a very high return for the risk. If I was to throw $100mm at MannKind, I would likely want first rights to ownership of Afrezza in the event of a default to mitigate the risk. Of course, if scripts were doubling weekly from here and were sitting at ac couple of thousand a week, the ability to procure additional capital will improve dramatically.
For everyone holding shares here, I really would like to see scripts take off. Not only for shareholders, but I would like to see Afrezza survive for all the diabetics it appears to be helping and the many more that do not even realize how it could improve their way of life.
Back to management, I believe they have done an incredibly poor job tackling the barriers to getting Afrezza to market. Obviously, there have been many including the very restrictive label from the FDA. Also, having your hands tied due to Sanofi's lack of commitment was incredibly damaging. Still see no way that Sanofi invested the kind of money it claims. If I was management, I would want a very clear accounting of all that money spent. No way it adds up.
Heck, I am really frustrated and I am not even a shareholder. I did put an incredible amount of time evaluating this company when I bought in big going into approval after Adcom vote. Continued to keep my eyes open and stay well informed as the partnership deal neared and was struck. It was my due diligence that told me to dump it all at the open as I was less than impressed with the deal only getting a small piece of the agreement in the press releases. I also told myself that there would always be an opportunity to reload shares and I have waited patiently all this time while trying to stay informed.
I am afraid that the absolute lack of improving script counts has caused me to lose hope of this thing turning around as well as spending even more effort trying to figure out what the heck went wrong. MannKind appears to be sitting at the bottom of the mountain and is unable to even climb a few feet with the remaining money that they have in their coffers.
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, I would deny him. If anyone is willing to pay that much money in 6 months, then that must mean that MNKD's prospects are good, and I would much rather keep gambling my money and hold out for the land of milk and honey. I've read some posters who have written awesome and inspiring stories here and who have very noble reasons for being diehard mnkd longs. I admire you all greatly. I don't have such a rich history with mnkd, and I am basically just a gambler with this stock, but I do feel a part of something much bigger. Kinda like Bernie Sander's revolution. I'm not as knowledgeable as so many contributors here, but I have been learning a lot from you all. I also subscribe to Nate's Notes and that is where I became aware of mnkd from (I have wondered how many others here also got introduced to mnkd by Nate). Nate has been ranked in the top 5 stock-pickers by Hulbert for years (despite his portfolio's misfortune with mnkd). Nate is also a steadfast long with mnkd as his largest portfolio holding and is still averaging down and recently increased his shares by another 20%. All together, I read so much more positive things about mnkd than negative. Yes, the future is unknown, but that's what makes it exciting. I know there is a chance of failure (and possibly substantial), but I have been investing on my own for 30 years and I have never had such a good gut feeling about any stock before. GLTAL
