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Post by babaoriley on Sept 15, 2016 17:03:33 GMT -5
baba, I'll jump in. Not that its likely, but with 50-60MM in non-dilutive financing I would think the sp would jump back over $2.
It would be an interesting play for the Mann foundation to increase the line of credit. If they did & sp went to $2, the market cap goes back to $1BB & their shares back to $350MM. I've been hoping for the Mann Foundation to jump in for months, but the longer we go, the chances for that diminish, although not greatly. They may be waiting for a sign of a turnaround. I'm not sure of how much cash the Foundation has lying around, and I'm pretty sure that an adequately insurance-covered product is high on their list of attributes for further financing. Without adequate coverage, which means high percentage of cost covered, and not a whole lot of hassle getting approved in the first place, it's tough to get lender financing. I assume any such loan would be convertible into stock. To me, this would be the least painful, realistic way to get another 6 mos to a year worth of cash. The hope of significant money from SNY or a partner or a nation is far-fetched at this point. |
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Post by goyocafe on Sept 15, 2016 17:17:02 GMT -5
baba, I'll jump in. Not that its likely, but with 50-60MM in non-dilutive financing I would think the sp would jump back over $2.
It would be an interesting play for the Mann foundation to increase the line of credit. If they did & sp went to $2, the market cap goes back to $1BB & their shares back to $350MM. I've been hoping for the Mann Foundation to jump in for months, but the longer we go, the chances for that diminish, although not greatly. They may be waiting for a sign of a turnaround. I'm not sure of how much cash the Foundation has lying around, and I'm pretty sure that an adequately insurance-covered product is high on their list of attributes for further financing. Without adequate coverage, which means high percentage of cost covered, and not a whole lot of hassle getting approved in the first place, it's tough to get lender financing. I assume any such loan would be convertible into stock. To me, this would be the least painful, realistic way to get another 6 mos to a year worth of cash. The hope of significant money from SNY or a partner or a nation is far-fetched at this point. If they sold any of the shares that was noted as a possibility in the last quarterly call, maybe they plan on using the proceeds from that. Seems like they'd have to sell a lot of shares and not sure how they'd do that and not crash the sp. Oh wait, it already has. :0 |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2016 9:10:07 GMT -5
"Mannkind somehow gets a non-dilutive injection of $60mm or so." Scotta, what do you have in mind here? Perhaps some $$ from RLS or Sanofi with the former more likely. Maybe something out of left field for the Epi. Would be very rough to raise $$ via equity at this point and if they are going to raise, the company needs another $45 mm min and with that, we get crushed since SP would drop I suspect well below 0.50 / share, unless NRx starts to grow 20+% W/W and we get some type of gap up along the way i.e. a week or two where it is 20% + an additional 100 - 150 NRx. If the choice is raise at 0.50 or BK, I'll take the former but if thats what transpires, Rx count really has to grow. I know we are still early in the process but in another 2-4 weeks, Rx count needs to show strong growth or I'm afraid its over. I have not given up yet and considering more shares or long calls. |
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Post by kbrion77 on Sept 16, 2016 9:28:38 GMT -5
"Mannkind somehow gets a non-dilutive injection of $60mm or so." Scotta, what do you have in mind here? Perhaps some $$ from RLS or Sanofi with the former more likely. Maybe something out of left field for the Epi. Would be very rough to raise $$ via equity at this point and if they are going to raise, the company needs another $45 mm min and with that, we get crushed since SP would drop I suspect well below 0.50 / share, unless NRx starts to grow 20+% W/W and we get some type of gap up along the way i.e. a week or two where it is 20% + an additional 100 - 150 NRx. If the choice is raise at 0.50 or BK, I'll take the former but if thats what transpires, Rx count really has to grow. I know we are still early in the process but in another 2-4 weeks, Rx count needs to show strong growth or I'm afraid its over. I have not given up yet and considering more shares or long calls. A harsh reality continues to sink in more and more every day. The cons outweigh the pros right about now. I'll go down with the ship but I'm done buying even if it goes to .50. Pfeffer has to get creative with financing they just cannot dilute anymore and as Proboard Matt has alluded to it's extremely difficult to raise cash during Q4's. I agree with your 2-4 week timeline on progress. I'd put insolvency at 55% right now and tacking on 1% as each day passes with no substantial progress or company updates. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2016 9:46:29 GMT -5
Perhaps some $$ from RLS or Sanofi with the former more likely. Maybe something out of left field for the Epi. Would be very rough to raise $$ via equity at this point and if they are going to raise, the company needs another $45 mm min and with that, we get crushed since SP would drop I suspect well below 0.50 / share, unless NRx starts to grow 20+% W/W and we get some type of gap up along the way i.e. a week or two where it is 20% + an additional 100 - 150 NRx. If the choice is raise at 0.50 or BK, I'll take the former but if thats what transpires, Rx count really has to grow. I know we are still early in the process but in another 2-4 weeks, Rx count needs to show strong growth or I'm afraid its over. I have not given up yet and considering more shares or long calls. A harsh reality continues to sink in more and more every day. The cons outweigh the pros right about now. I'll go down with the ship but I'm done buying even if it goes to .50. Pfeffer has to get creative with financing they just cannot dilute anymore and as Proboard Matt has alluded to it's extremely difficult to raise cash during Q4's. I agree with your 2-4 week timeline on progress. I'd put insolvency at 55% right now and tacking on 1% as each day passes with no substantial progress or company updates. I don't think either of our comments are unreasonable. The real wildcard to me is still Afrezza. I know the industry well and there is nothing that compares to Afrezza and the positive impact it could have on a majority of people with diabetes. Unfortunately, the reality of the healthcare system today is the practice of defensive medicine and given the patient load and stress, clinicians (docs and others) have limited time and energy to learn about new therapies and most have a wait and see approach to innovation. If I were a clinician practicing today, I would likely do the same. Mike C I believe is a car guy. If he can make Afrezza work, he may become a jet guy. Waiting anxiously the next few weeks to watch what happens to NRx and to see if there are any press releases. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2016 10:01:28 GMT -5
The one question I have asked but nobody including myself has been able to answer is why did Mike C join Mannkind. He is a bright guy, clearly capable and knows the pharma industry well. He was far up the food chain at Amgen and likely living a comfortable life. No way he went to Mannkind without doing a lot of due diligence. He knows how hard it is to launch a new drug yet along relaunch a product that initially did not do well. He had to receive some type of assurances when he was being courted and part of those had to be some type of commitment that the company would have enough resources to give him at least a year and likely more to make Afrezza a success. Unless he was leaving Amgen and had nothing to lose by joining Mannkind (my gut tells me this was not the case) Mannkind had to demonstrate resources to give Mike a viable chance to make Afrezza a success.
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Post by cjm18 on Sept 16, 2016 10:20:15 GMT -5
The one question I have asked but nobody including myself has been able to answer is why did Mike C join Mannkind. He is a bright guy, clearly capable and knows the pharma industry well. He was far up the food chain at Amgen and likely living a comfortable life. No way he went to Mannkind without doing a lot of due diligence. He knows how hard it is to launch a new drug yet along relaunch a product that initially did not do well. He had to receive some type of assurances when he was being courted and part of those had to be some type of commitment that the company would have enough resources to give him at least a year and likely more to make Afrezza a success. Unless he was leaving Amgen and had nothing to lose by joining Mannkind (my gut tells me this was not the case) Mannkind had to demonstrate resources to give Mike a viable chance to make Afrezza a success. Agree. Plus why would Mnkd go at selling afrezza alone if they knew they only had until 2017Q1 to be profitable. |
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Post by scottmnkd on Sept 16, 2016 10:32:35 GMT -5
The one question I have asked but nobody including myself has been able to answer is why did Mike C join Mannkind. He is a bright guy, clearly capable and knows the pharma industry well. He was far up the food chain at Amgen and likely living a comfortable life. No way he went to Mannkind without doing a lot of due diligence. He knows how hard it is to launch a new drug yet along relaunch a product that initially did not do well. He had to receive some type of assurances when he was being courted and part of those had to be some type of commitment that the company would have enough resources to give him at least a year and likely more to make Afrezza a success. Unless he was leaving Amgen and had nothing to lose by joining Mannkind (my gut tells me this was not the case) Mannkind had to demonstrate resources to give Mike a viable chance to make Afrezza a success. Agree. Plus why would Mnkd go at selling afrezza alone if they knew they only had until 2017Q1 to be profitable. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe MNKD spent north of a Billion $ thus far bringing Afrezza to market. Sanofi's marketing effort failed for a number of reasons. So, it's my belief that MNKD will find additional funding for as long as it takes given a steady rise in scripts/revenues. If that's the case, eventually the drug will become profitable and has the potential for global success. That's what I think Mike sees in MNKD along with an early retirement if he so chooses. |
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Post by longinvstr on Sept 16, 2016 10:38:23 GMT -5
The one question I have asked but nobody including myself has been able to answer is why did Mike C join Mannkind. He is a bright guy, clearly capable and knows the pharma industry well. He was far up the food chain at Amgen and likely living a comfortable life. No way he went to Mannkind without doing a lot of due diligence. He knows how hard it is to launch a new drug yet along relaunch a product that initially did not do well. He had to receive some type of assurances when he was being courted and part of those had to be some type of commitment that the company would have enough resources to give him at least a year and likely more to make Afrezza a success. Unless he was leaving Amgen and had nothing to lose by joining Mannkind (my gut tells me this was not the case) Mannkind had to demonstrate resources to give Mike a viable chance to make Afrezza a success. Bingo Add to that his conviction that his recent investments in MNKD would not be diluted in short order. IMO, there is more runway over the hill he knows is there but we can not see |
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Post by als57 on Sept 16, 2016 11:08:17 GMT -5
If it was only Matt P. doing the courting, well then Mike C. is on shaky ground. If the BOD was involved, then Mike must have insight into future financial stability for the 1 year mentioned. If he can push the Mannkind boulder up the hill against the WS opposition, then he truly is a "miracle worker." |
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 16, 2016 11:20:12 GMT -5
The one question I have asked but nobody including myself has been able to answer is why did Mike C join Mannkind. He is a bright guy, clearly capable and knows the pharma industry well. He was far up the food chain at Amgen and likely living a comfortable life. No way he went to Mannkind without doing a lot of due diligence. He knows how hard it is to launch a new drug yet along relaunch a product that initially did not do well. He had to receive some type of assurances when he was being courted and part of those had to be some type of commitment that the company would have enough resources to give him at least a year and likely more to make Afrezza a success. Unless he was leaving Amgen and had nothing to lose by joining Mannkind (my gut tells me this was not the case) Mannkind had to demonstrate resources to give Mike a viable chance to make Afrezza a success. Agree. Plus why would Mnkd go at selling afrezza alone if they knew they only had until 2017Q1 to be profitable. Of course, this topic was discussed at length when Mike originally joined. Successful guys like that can have a bit of hubris, so you need to factor that in. |
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Post by op2778 on Sept 16, 2016 11:25:08 GMT -5
About Mike C.
He is a winner.
Bought shares in Open Market several times (it's own money)
Creates a sell dept From The ground in few months
Scripts are increasing (we all want to see it up and up big, but are increasing)
MNKD Cares in place Thanks to him
Mike C hiring some strategic profile (looks like he is not afraid to hire, it means, he Was assured there is money to play The game)
About Amgen: Well, since first day I'm a believer they sent Mike to MNKD (JMHO)
Those are some facts.
What will be The cherry on top of cake? If MNKD hires DeSisto (he will be free very soon) or another CEO. I'm dreaming? Probably, but time will tell.
OP
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Post by kbrion77 on Sept 16, 2016 11:43:45 GMT -5
About Mike C. He is a winner. Bought shares in Open Market several times (it's own money) Creates a sell dept From The ground in few months Scripts are increasing (we all want to see it up and up big, but are increasing) MNKD Cares in place Thanks to him Mike C hiring some strategic profile (looks like he is not afraid to hire, it means, he Was assured there is money to play The game) About Amgen: Well, since first day I'm a believer they sent Mike to MNKD (JMHO)Those are some facts. What will be The cherry on top of cake? If MNKD hires DeSisto (he will be free very soon) or another CEO. I'm dreaming? Probably, but time will tell. OP Again for me I'm starting to accept some harsh realities around MNKD but your belief has proven to be wrong in every single form the last 10 years with MNKD employees. This is just my opinion as well I don't mean to rain on the party but it could be time for people to start accepting some cold hard facts. I personally don't think DeSisto is rejoining but if he does one could argue he got the same conviction as Mike C got with company resources going forward. Good luck. |
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Post by mnholdem on Sept 16, 2016 11:51:47 GMT -5
FYI - Duane DeSisto's last day of his non-compete agreement with Insulet is tomorrow.
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Post by kball on Sept 16, 2016 12:00:22 GMT -5
^
Still thinking that whole non compete excuse was a red herring.
To save a reputation about changing mind due to circumstances
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(it would be among the first few things to iron out before acceptance)
Having said that, I'd welcome some new life to the company as we got a nice boost of energy with Mike, probably same w DD
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