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Post by kbrion77 on Oct 12, 2016 14:28:00 GMT -5
matt, Thank you for staying on topic with a great response. I agree, if they continue to report the same and kick the can down the road they may have finally run out of options. If they have submitted a label change why wouldn't they have announced it? Unless... they are keeping that for the Q3 release as the only good news in an attempt to offset all of the bad. On a side note: My conspiracy theory is that they are delibrately tanking the PPS in an attempt to get retail out of the stock.I would simply say move on from that theory ASAP. And also anyone that hasn't seriously thought about Mannkind filing for Chapter 11 needs to. I have, I've accepted it and will take the gamble. There comes a point when this Mannkind fantasy land hits a harsh reality and as each day passes with no new cash and stagnant script numbers it becomes closer. I mean 39 pages of RLS nonsense on another thread with nothing new since Mannkind's FAQ released in mid-January 2016. The FAQ stated RLS was formed by prominent businessmen/businesswomen in the Seattle area, and it looks from a leaked PDF that's exactly what it is, again nothing new!
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Post by victoria on Oct 12, 2016 14:28:02 GMT -5
Not sure this whole thread really advances meaningful discussion at all.
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Post by sophie on Oct 12, 2016 14:32:59 GMT -5
I've said it before and i'll say it again. You are a wolf disguised in sheep's clothing and i sincerely hope everyone who reads this board takes what you say with a grain of salt. Now you are calling for a bankruptcy filing to come out with the 10-Q. They have been selling Afrezza for 3 full months - Let's not act like the sky is falling. It's posts like these that make me wonder what's going to happen to the contingent of those with their head stuck in the sand. Will your next theory once MNKD goes bankrupt and/or delists that there's some sort of computer virus that's infecting your browser, making it impossible for you to access your shares? Sure, matt has been hinting between the lines that the ship is sinking, but can you really argue and say he's been wrong? He's not giving grab-bag reasons. He's done nothing but produce cogent arguments.
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Post by mnkdorbust on Oct 12, 2016 14:33:34 GMT -5
The next 4 weeks are huuuggge (d. trump) for mnkd: script counts, 3Q results and conference call, reverse split/dilution, RLS, label change application, partnerships, pipeline advances, etc. Does anyone think management will produce? I think we need to be realistic about what management CAN produce. Q3 is over and the numbers are going to be ugly. We know the script counts have been tepid and that there a lot of new costs that didn't exist when Sanofi was doing the sales. Label change is not going to happen either, management may have submitted the request by now, but FDA has six months to decide on material changes to labels and everyone should expect that FDA will take their time. Partnerships only move as quickly as the slowest of the two partners, and most companies are busy putting together their 2017 budgets at the moment. Matt can't force any partner to go faster.
What Matt can do is:
Address the script trend such as it is by the end of October. Patience is good, but end of the month will have been 120 days and there should be some positive trend in the numbers by then.
Explain how the company will remain funded, and saying that they have enough cash and credit to get through Q1 is not an answer.
This company has a significant bankruptcy risk whether people want to talk about it or not, and a company cannot enter into a bankruptcy after all the money is gone because of the need to keep the company running as it restructures plus the legal costs of the case. The company is perilously close to that tipping point, and it would not surprise me if the company began a chapter 11 case on the same day they publish the 10Q (a lot of companies do that for disclosure and legal liability reasons). However, assuming they don't pull the trigger then Matt needs to explain how the cash drain can be supported in the face of a delisting and continued negative cash flow.
As soon as the Q3 numbers are published, everyone will be updating their balance sheet forecasts and estimating how long the cash will last, but prospective investors will be doing the same thing. Insolvency is a like a game of musical chairs; when the music stops nobody wants to remain standing. The reality may not be nice, but shareholders deserve to hear exactly where the company is with the financing options, and vague answers aren't going to cut it. If Matt doesn't deliver on those two points, then I think it is because he has run out of options.
I would argue that the expenses on their own will be less than that of the split with SNY as SNY was both "bloated" plus let's be honest, likely inflating the numbers to get better % and/or margins.
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Post by jonny80s on Oct 12, 2016 14:47:03 GMT -5
I'm not looking for blockbuster numbers. I'm looking for meaningful progress.
I've accepted my losses. My curiosity is more in line with: "can anyone give me reason to continue investing time on this 'apparent' dog?"
Frustration......
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Post by figglebird on Oct 12, 2016 14:52:33 GMT -5
looks can be deceiving.... that would be the biggest and most important - to argue anything else would be useless unless you grasp this.
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Post by madog365 on Oct 12, 2016 15:02:12 GMT -5
I've said it before and i'll say it again. You are a wolf disguised in sheep's clothing and i sincerely hope everyone who reads this board takes what you say with a grain of salt. Now you are calling for a bankruptcy filing to come out with the 10-Q. They have been selling Afrezza for 3 full months - Let's not act like the sky is falling. It's posts like these that make me wonder what's going to happen to the contingent of those with their head stuck in the sand. Will your next theory once MNKD goes bankrupt and/or delists that there's some sort of computer virus that's infecting your browser, making it impossible for you to access your shares? Sure, matt has been hinting between the lines that the ship is sinking, but can you really argue and say he's been wrong? He's not giving grab-bag reasons. He's done nothing but produce cogent arguments. You can call me naive all you want. Arguing that MNKD will file for bankruptcy with their 10Q filing in a few weeks is baseless and not qualified as "cogent" in my mind. But you go ahead and believe the FUD this guy continues to spread for his own financial best interest.
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Post by sophie on Oct 12, 2016 15:06:57 GMT -5
Who gives a rip what he thinks though? He's only stating that it could happen... which is an indicator to check out to see if what he's saying is right.
I haven't sold my position yet, but I'm having to seriously consider it right now. Taking money off the table is certainly the safe move, but it might even probably be the best move. There won't be time to sell if bankruptcy gets announced. And if something positive does come around, there will probably be enough time to get back in at a decent price, especially considering further dilution is likely possible. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush my mom always said. It was greed that got me this deep and I don't want it to completely wipe me out. Do what you want... but it's foolish to not at least consider the possibility beforehand.
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Post by brotherm1 on Oct 12, 2016 15:08:06 GMT -5
I can argue that matt is wrong and baseless and not genuine. . He''s the character that said MNKD is spending $10 million per month on the salesforce.
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Post by brotherm1 on Oct 12, 2016 15:10:48 GMT -5
how would the MNKD estate common shareholders who own more than 30% of the shares possibly benefit more by bankruptcy than they would by sale of the company? Bankruptcy makes no sense
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Post by sophie on Oct 12, 2016 15:11:36 GMT -5
I don't remember that conversation so I can't speak to it. I want to believe he meant they spend 10 mil per month on the whole operation. 10 mil per month on salesforce is ridiculous. At 70 people per month, they'd have to be making about 150k per month. No drug salesman makes that money, especially if the script count remains unchanged. There has to be a misunderstanding somewhere...
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Post by oldfishtowner on Oct 12, 2016 15:21:08 GMT -5
Total weekly script counts are even from when they started. Sanofi took 3 months from ground 0 to achieve these numbers, Mannkind had a base to start with.... net 0. I hate to be a cynic especially when I have so much skin lost in this game, but the numbers better start rolling in. The baseball/football game day ads seem to me as good as a bad joke. Maybe two months down the road they will add 20 scripts. Can anyone remember the last time they picked up a game day pamphlet? Are they free...? Current, as well as last 6, generation cell phones/mobile computers have made them obsolete. There has been big talk from old and new Mnkd execs..... but 0 results. The next 4 weeks are huuuggge (d. trump) for mnkd: script counts, 3Q results and conference call, reverse split/dilution, RLS, label change application, partnerships, pipeline advances, etc. Does anyone think management will produce? The next 2 weeks' script counts will decide wether or not we have been receiving nothing but hot air from management. I expect if they remain flat the PPS will nosedive. Then what will management do.... 10/1, 20/1 or 50/1 reverse split with dilution down the road? "Total weekly script counts are even from when they started." Yes and no. Literally this may be approximately true. But when you talk about the base for current scripts you are a bit misleading. The "base" for current scripts is roughly somewhere around 10-12 weeks prior, especially in the re-launch. This assumes that the vast majority of patients already on Afrezza were already on long-term maintenance and have scripts for a 90-day supply. If you compare the weekly TRx=286 for 07/22/16 with those 11 weeks prior (05/06/16: TRX=316), scripts were down 30 from this "base". Now compare last week's TRx=291 with 11 weeks prior (07/15/16) TRx=235, we see an increase of 56. If you compare the beginning of the marketing effort to the status of scripts as of last week there is a change of +86 compared with the moving "base", which was declining rapidly when the re-launch started. While this may not be as much movement in scripts as we would like to see, it is nevertheless a significant move in the right direction. It certainly is not stagnation.
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Post by seanismorris on Oct 12, 2016 15:22:53 GMT -5
I want to hear about the Label first. Then actual results of Afrezza, specifically related to real world reduction in hospital visits.
If MannKind say that they'll have the data out in January (1 year anniversary) and that it looks good I'll be satisfied with that.
The ship is sinking, but it's sinking slowly. No BK for at least 2 more quarters... But that doesn't mean things don't need to change today.
Sales aren't going to change (significantly) without a better message for doctors. We need good news: better Label, reduced H visits, and stellar pediatric results.
Better coverage is good, but we need to see Afrezza saves lives and healthcare $$$s.
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Post by chuck on Oct 12, 2016 15:25:16 GMT -5
As soon as the Q3 numbers are published, everyone will be updating their balance sheet forecasts and estimating how long the cash will last, but prospective investors will be doing the same thing. Insolvency is a like a game of musical chairs; when the music stops nobody wants to remain standing. The reality may not be nice, but shareholders deserve to hear exactly where the company is with the financing options, and vague answers aren't going to cut it. If Matt doesn't deliver on those two points, then I think it is because he has run out of options.
I've said it before and i'll say it again. You are a wolf disguised in sheep's clothing and i sincerely hope everyone who reads this board takes what you say with a grain of salt. Now you are calling for a bankruptcy filing to come out with the 10-Q. They have been selling Afrezza for 3 full months - Let's not act like the sky is falling. If scripts don't increase significantly, there will certainly come a point in time when mnkd realizes that Afrezza alone will likely never generate enough annual cash-flow to support the entire cost structure of mnkd in its current form or any other form. More specifically, they will realize that Afrezza needs to be taken over by a larger company with a portfolio of products where indirect corp costs of mnkd can be eliminated and some of the remaining costs can be shared over a range of products, such that the break-even point of Afrezza is significantly reduced and PWD continue to be able to utilize this product indefinitely. I don't think they will come to this conclusion by Q3 earnings (too soon) but rather they will do a small vulture type equity offering to bridge them out to mid 2017. This will give them a little more time to work on scripts in early 2017 and if they don't see enough improvement, the extra cash will give them enough time to allow for an orderly sale of assets and dissolution of the company.
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Post by therealisaching on Oct 12, 2016 15:26:55 GMT -5
I dont see bk coming just yet without giving 2.0 a full opportunity. Remember the Estate of Al Mann & related entities own 32% of the common stock & are in the same place retail longs would be in a bk, wiped out. They would have to look at selling before they ever filed.
There are still other options of extending the runway, that like it or not, are preferable to bk. Options include an additional offering, using the ATM, annuitizing the SNY insulin put, etc.
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