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Post by jonny80s on Oct 12, 2016 11:15:12 GMT -5
Total weekly script counts are even from when they started. Sanofi took 3 months from ground 0 to achieve these numbers, Mannkind had a base to start with.... net 0.
I hate to be a cynic especially when I have so much skin lost in this game, but the numbers better start rolling in.
The baseball/football game day ads seem to me as good as a bad joke. Maybe two months down the road they will add 20 scripts. Can anyone remember the last time they picked up a game day pamphlet? Are they free...? Current, as well as last 6, generation cell phones/mobile computers have made them obsolete.
There has been big talk from old and new Mnkd execs..... but 0 results.
The next 4 weeks are huuuggge (d. trump) for mnkd: script counts, 3Q results and conference call, reverse split/dilution, RLS, label change application, partnerships, pipeline advances, etc.
Does anyone think management will produce?
The next 2 weeks' script counts will decide wether or not we have been receiving nothing but hot air from management. I expect if they remain flat the PPS will nosedive. Then what will management do.... 10/1, 20/1 or 50/1 reverse split with dilution down the road?
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Post by fiddler on Oct 12, 2016 11:23:48 GMT -5
Total weekly script counts are even from when they started. Sanofi took 3 months from ground 0 to achieve these numbers, Mannkind had a base to start with.... net 0. I hate to be a cynic especially when I have so much skin lost in this game, but the numbers better start rolling in. The baseball/football game day ads seem to me as good as a bad joke. Maybe two months down the road they will add 20 scripts. Can anyone remember the last time they picked up a game day pamphlet? Are they free...? Current, as well as last 6, generation cell phones/mobile computers have made them obsolete. There has been big talk from old and new Mnkd execs..... but 0 results. The next 4 weeks are huuuggge (d. trump) for mnkd: script counts, 3Q results and conference call, reverse split/dilution, RLS, label change application, partnerships, pipeline advances, etc. Does anyone think management will produce? The next 2 weeks' script counts will decide wether or not we have been receiving nothing but hot air from management. I expect if they remain flat the PPS will nosedive. Then what will management do.... 10/1, 20/1 or 50/1 reverse split with dilution down the road? The thing about the game day ads is the problem that all print ads have in that two thirds of them are always devoted to warnings. And how will most people relate to the outsulin concept anyway? Is that really something diabetics worry about? |
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Post by goyocafe on Oct 12, 2016 11:25:05 GMT -5
Total weekly script counts are even from when they started. Sanofi took 3 months from ground 0 to achieve these numbers, Mannkind had a base to start with.... net 0. I hate to be a cynic especially when I have so much skin lost in this game, but the numbers better start rolling in. The baseball/football game day ads seem to me as good as a bad joke. Maybe two months down the road they will add 20 scripts. Can anyone remember the last time they picked up a game day pamphlet? Are they free...? Current, as well as last 6, generation cell phones/mobile computers have made them obsolete. There has been big talk from old and new Mnkd execs..... but 0 results. The next 4 weeks are huuuggge (d. trump) for mnkd: script counts, 3Q results and conference call, reverse split/dilution, RLS, label change application, partnerships, pipeline advances, etc. Does anyone think management will produce? The next 2 weeks' script counts will decide wether or not we have been receiving nothing but hot air from management. I expect if they remain flat the PPS will nosedive. Then what will management do.... 10/1, 20/1 or 50/1 reverse split with dilution down the road? The thing about the game day ads is the problem that all print ads have in that two thirds of them are always devoted to warnings. And how will most people relate to the outsulin concept anyway? Is that really something diabetics worry about? I think PWDs on insulin know all about insulin stacking and hypos. Anyone not on insulin, not so much. |
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Post by rombic33 on Oct 12, 2016 12:13:34 GMT -5
Interesting, besides the flat weekly scripts numbers, is it any stats about
how many docs offices were visited by sales team? Week by week.
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Post by fiddler on Oct 12, 2016 12:23:51 GMT -5
The thing about the game day ads is the problem that all print ads have in that two thirds of them are always devoted to warnings. And how will most people relate to the outsulin concept anyway? Is that really something diabetics worry about? I think PWDs on insulin know all about insulin stacking and hypos. Anyone not on insulin, not so much. Exactly, but has anyone established the extent to which diabetics worry about hypoglycemia. If, in general, they don't sweat hypos all that much, then pitching how good it is to use afrezza to avoid hypos may not be the best advertising strategy. Judging by scripts, the endos sure don't seem all that worried about avoiding hypos. |
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Post by mannmade on Oct 12, 2016 12:30:33 GMT -5
I don't think the issue is that no one cares about hypos as my experience in speaking with many diabetics and doctors, including endos is that they do. I think it is more that there are still many issues that have not been clarified and that docs think anyone between 7.0 and 8.0 in general is under control.
Issues in my opinion that still need to be resolved are as follows:
1. Lifetime best Hba1c without severe hypos is possible
2. Insurance coverage
3. Proper use and titration, (question of how to does and how much need to count carbs)
4. Real hard cost to patients
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2016 12:41:29 GMT -5
Do the ads include a statement about being partnered with JDRF?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2016 12:44:39 GMT -5
Do the ads include a statement about being partnered with JDRF? How is that relevant to Afrezza ad? They are not commercially partnered with JDRF. They are only seeking help from JDRF to establish pediatric protocol so there is less chance of them screwing up as they did with original trials. JDRF has no meat in the game. |
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Post by fiddler on Oct 12, 2016 13:36:51 GMT -5
I don't think the issue is that no one cares about hypos as my experience in speaking with many diabetics and doctors, including endos is that they do. I think it is more that there are still many issues that have not been clarified and that docs think anyone between 7.0 and 8.0 in general is under control. Issues in my opinion that still need to be resolved are as follows: 1. Lifetime best Hba1c without severe hypos is possible 2. Insurance coverage 3. Proper use and titration, (question of how to does and how much need to count carbs) 4. Real hard cost to patients That's sort of the whole point. What do the diabetics really care about and how does afrezza address those issues? If hypoglycemia isn't high on their list, then it doesn't seem to make much sense spending a lot of money advertising that aspect of afrezza. |
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Post by matt on Oct 12, 2016 13:40:29 GMT -5
The next 4 weeks are huuuggge (d. trump) for mnkd: script counts, 3Q results and conference call, reverse split/dilution, RLS, label change application, partnerships, pipeline advances, etc. Does anyone think management will produce? I think we need to be realistic about what management CAN produce. Q3 is over and the numbers are going to be ugly. We know the script counts have been tepid and that there a lot of new costs that didn't exist when Sanofi was doing the sales. Label change is not going to happen either, management may have submitted the request by now, but FDA has six months to decide on material changes to labels and everyone should expect that FDA will take their time. Partnerships only move as quickly as the slowest of the two partners, and most companies are busy putting together their 2017 budgets at the moment. Matt can't force any partner to go faster.
What Matt can do is:
Address the script trend such as it is by the end of October. Patience is good, but end of the month will have been 120 days and there should be some positive trend in the numbers by then.
Explain how the company will remain funded, and saying that they have enough cash and credit to get through Q1 is not an answer.
This company has a significant bankruptcy risk whether people want to talk about it or not, and a company cannot enter into a bankruptcy after all the money is gone because of the need to keep the company running as it restructures plus the legal costs of the case. The company is perilously close to that tipping point, and it would not surprise me if the company began a chapter 11 case on the same day they publish the 10Q (a lot of companies do that for disclosure and legal liability reasons). However, assuming they don't pull the trigger then Matt needs to explain how the cash drain can be supported in the face of a delisting and continued negative cash flow.
As soon as the Q3 numbers are published, everyone will be updating their balance sheet forecasts and estimating how long the cash will last, but prospective investors will be doing the same thing. Insolvency is a like a game of musical chairs; when the music stops nobody wants to remain standing. The reality may not be nice, but shareholders deserve to hear exactly where the company is with the financing options, and vague answers aren't going to cut it. If Matt doesn't deliver on those two points, then I think it is because he has run out of options.
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Post by madog365 on Oct 12, 2016 14:08:25 GMT -5
The next 4 weeks are huuuggge (d. trump) for mnkd: script counts, 3Q results and conference call, reverse split/dilution, RLS, label change application, partnerships, pipeline advances, etc. Does anyone think management will produce? I think we need to be realistic about what management CAN produce. Q3 is over and the numbers are going to be ugly. We know the script counts have been tepid and that there a lot of new costs that didn't exist when Sanofi was doing the sales. Label change is not going to happen either, management may have submitted the request by now, but FDA has six months to decide on material changes to labels and everyone should expect that FDA will take their time. Partnerships only move as quickly as the slowest of the two partners, and most companies are busy putting together their 2017 budgets at the moment. Matt can't force any partner to go faster.
What Matt can do is:
Address the script trend such as it is by the end of October. Patience is good, but end of the month will have been 120 days and there should be some positive trend in the numbers by then.
Explain how the company will remain funded, and saying that they have enough cash and credit to get through Q1 is not an answer.
This company has a significant bankruptcy risk whether people want to talk about it or not, and a company cannot enter into a bankruptcy after all the money is gone because of the need to keep the company running as it restructures plus the legal costs of the case. The company is perilously close to that tipping point, and it would not surprise me if the company began a chapter 11 case on the same day they publish the 10Q (a lot of companies do that for disclosure and legal liability reasons). However, assuming they don't pull the trigger then Matt needs to explain how the cash drain can be supported in the face of a delisting and continued negative cash flow.
As soon as the Q3 numbers are published, everyone will be updating their balance sheet forecasts and estimating how long the cash will last, but prospective investors will be doing the same thing. Insolvency is a like a game of musical chairs; when the music stops nobody wants to remain standing. The reality may not be nice, but shareholders deserve to hear exactly where the company is with the financing options, and vague answers aren't going to cut it. If Matt doesn't deliver on those two points, then I think it is because he has run out of options.
I've said it before and i'll say it again. You are a wolf disguised in sheep's clothing and i sincerely hope everyone who reads this board takes what you say with a grain of salt. Now you are calling for a bankruptcy filing to come out with the 10-Q. They have been selling Afrezza for 3 full months - Let's not act like the sky is falling. |
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Post by kbrion77 on Oct 12, 2016 14:11:45 GMT -5
I think we need to be realistic about what management CAN produce. Q3 is over and the numbers are going to be ugly. We know the script counts have been tepid and that there a lot of new costs that didn't exist when Sanofi was doing the sales. Label change is not going to happen either, management may have submitted the request by now, but FDA has six months to decide on material changes to labels and everyone should expect that FDA will take their time. Partnerships only move as quickly as the slowest of the two partners, and most companies are busy putting together their 2017 budgets at the moment. Matt can't force any partner to go faster.
What Matt can do is:
Address the script trend such as it is by the end of October. Patience is good, but end of the month will have been 120 days and there should be some positive trend in the numbers by then.
Explain how the company will remain funded, and saying that they have enough cash and credit to get through Q1 is not an answer.
This company has a significant bankruptcy risk whether people want to talk about it or not, and a company cannot enter into a bankruptcy after all the money is gone because of the need to keep the company running as it restructures plus the legal costs of the case. The company is perilously close to that tipping point, and it would not surprise me if the company began a chapter 11 case on the same day they publish the 10Q (a lot of companies do that for disclosure and legal liability reasons). However, assuming they don't pull the trigger then Matt needs to explain how the cash drain can be supported in the face of a delisting and continued negative cash flow.
As soon as the Q3 numbers are published, everyone will be updating their balance sheet forecasts and estimating how long the cash will last, but prospective investors will be doing the same thing. Insolvency is a like a game of musical chairs; when the music stops nobody wants to remain standing. The reality may not be nice, but shareholders deserve to hear exactly where the company is with the financing options, and vague answers aren't going to cut it. If Matt doesn't deliver on those two points, then I think it is because he has run out of options.
I've said it before and i'll say it again. You are a wolf disguised in sheep's clothing and i sincerely hope everyone who reads this board takes what you say with a grain of salt. Now you are calling for a bankruptcy filing to come out with the 10-Q. They have been selling Afrezza for 3 full months - Let's not act like the sky is falling. It's not? Have you been asleep since Jan. 5, 2016? |
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Post by jonny80s on Oct 12, 2016 14:12:17 GMT -5
matt,
Thank you for staying on topic with a great response. I agree, if they continue to report the same and kick the can down the road they may have finally run out of options.
If they have submitted a label change why wouldn't they have announced it? Unless... they are keeping that for the Q3 release as the only good news in an attempt to offset all of the bad.
On a side note: My conspiracy theory is that they are delibrately tanking the PPS in an attempt to get retail out of the stock.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2016 14:17:26 GMT -5
matt, Thank you for staying on topic with a great response. I agree, if they continue to report the same and kick the can down the road they may have finally run out of options. If they have submitted a label change why wouldn't they have announced it? Unless... they are keeping that for the Q3 release as the only good news in an attempt to offset all of the bad. On a side note: My conspiracy theory is that they are delibrately tanking the PPS in an attempt to get retail out of the stock. And who are they? Purpose? I know the purpose - either to cover or buy , but why the need? |
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Post by broncolife on Oct 12, 2016 14:17:27 GMT -5
Jonny80s, if your looking for blockbuster numbers this early you will be disappointed. I suggest you sell before the nose dive you describe!
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