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Post by sophie on Oct 12, 2016 15:34:45 GMT -5
how would the MNKD estate common shareholders who own more than 30% of the shares possibly benefit more by bankruptcy than they would by sale of the company? Bankruptcy makes no sense They don't benefit, but they also don't lose even more money. At some point, you sell your old car or you junk it. It doesn't make sense to keep dumping money into something that isn't returning any value- it's wasted money. There's no guarantee that dumping more money into MNKD is what is needed. No one knows for sure how long we really need to change the sentiment of the medical community. If time was the only variable that was needed to make our story a success, I think they would sink more in. I just don't think time is the only thing we need and when you stack all of the different factors up that need to change in order to be successful, it might be a further journey than you have energy for. Sometimes you just need to count your losses and move on. I think that many who kept buying on the way down would like to have their money back at this point... why would you ask the Mann estate to put themselves in the same position? Maybe they feel like it's better to quit while they're still ahead. I don't blame them. I don't like being the bearer of bad news but not all endings consist of puppies and rainbows. Sometimes things just break no matter how hard you try to keep it together. I'm not saying we're at that point yet, but there is certainly a compelling argument that we're close. It's going to be hard to get additional financing when we essentially got no monetary return on the last one and have no collateral or equity to borrow against. I think we're basically now resting our hopes on an RLS milestone payment as royalties will be too far away for short term. Other possibilities include a buyout and a future partner with upfront money, but I'll let you decide how likely that is since you probably won't like the numbers I come up with. That's about it as far as financing goes... We have $30 mil left from Mann group and that's about all we can really bank on at this time. Everything we've tried so far isn't working with Afrezza. Those who want to keep saying "give it time" don't realize how little time we have left at our disposal. With our greatest efforts to sell it over the past 3 months, there is little to show for it. I'm sure it's not for lack of trying, so either their message isn't effective or the docs just don't want to prescribe it. The first can change, although it's hard when you feel like you already put your best foot forward the first time... the second... not much you can really do about it. Docs are going to do what they think is best.
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Oct 12, 2016 15:56:53 GMT -5
Sophie!!! How dare you! Lady, you're depressing me and it's not becoming of you. There is so much good MNKD potential still available, that I couldn't even begin to list it all. You just took a wrong turn in your thinking. You just pick your chin up this minute, girl. Besides that, we have already lost so much and at 50-some cents a share, we have so little left, that to bail out now would be just silly. I am clutching that dream until its vapor.
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Post by madog365 on Oct 12, 2016 16:16:29 GMT -5
Sigh, you are ranting now. Just sell and move on. As for your thinking, i disagree. More and more Docs are prescribing their 1st RX. When they see the results their patients have, they will start to have multiple patients on Afrezza and that is when our scripts will move up significantly.
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Post by prvs on Oct 12, 2016 17:37:18 GMT -5
900 requests for samples in early September are going to convert to NRX soon. Maybe even this week.
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Post by cjm18 on Oct 12, 2016 18:41:28 GMT -5
900 requests for samples in early September are going to convert to NRX soon. Maybe even this week. Shoukdn't those samples be impacting nrx by now? 900 in 4 weeks. Assume 225 per week sometime in August.
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Oct 12, 2016 18:56:17 GMT -5
Sales force has done next to nothing. Sorry but the numbers don't lie. The weekly increase during the SNY days looks impressive now compared to 2.0.
Week after week the goal post keeps getting pushed back.
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Post by fiddler on Oct 12, 2016 21:11:25 GMT -5
how would the MNKD estate common shareholders who own more than 30% of the shares possibly benefit more by bankruptcy than they would by sale of the company? Bankruptcy makes no sense What if they have tried to sell the company, or at least their interest, but couldn't find anyone willing to buy?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 12, 2016 21:20:02 GMT -5
I think we need to be realistic about what management CAN produce. Q3 is over and the numbers are going to be ugly. We know the script counts have been tepid and that there a lot of new costs that didn't exist when Sanofi was doing the sales. Label change is not going to happen either, management may have submitted the request by now, but FDA has six months to decide on material changes to labels and everyone should expect that FDA will take their time. Partnerships only move as quickly as the slowest of the two partners, and most companies are busy putting together their 2017 budgets at the moment. Matt can't force any partner to go faster.
What Matt can do is:
Address the script trend such as it is by the end of October. Patience is good, but end of the month will have been 120 days and there should be some positive trend in the numbers by then.
Explain how the company will remain funded, and saying that they have enough cash and credit to get through Q1 is not an answer.
This company has a significant bankruptcy risk whether people want to talk about it or not, and a company cannot enter into a bankruptcy after all the money is gone because of the need to keep the company running as it restructures plus the legal costs of the case. The company is perilously close to that tipping point, and it would not surprise me if the company began a chapter 11 case on the same day they publish the 10Q (a lot of companies do that for disclosure and legal liability reasons). However, assuming they don't pull the trigger then Matt needs to explain how the cash drain can be supported in the face of a delisting and continued negative cash flow.
As soon as the Q3 numbers are published, everyone will be updating their balance sheet forecasts and estimating how long the cash will last, but prospective investors will be doing the same thing. Insolvency is a like a game of musical chairs; when the music stops nobody wants to remain standing. The reality may not be nice, but shareholders deserve to hear exactly where the company is with the financing options, and vague answers aren't going to cut it. If Matt doesn't deliver on those two points, then I think it is because he has run out of options.
I've said it before and i'll say it again. You are a wolf disguised in sheep's clothing and i sincerely hope everyone who reads this board takes what you say with a grain of salt. Now you are calling for a bankruptcy filing to come out with the 10-Q. They have been selling Afrezza for 3 full months - Let's not act like the sky is falling. You act like he is wanting a bankruptcy. Perhaps you should at least term it predicting rather than calling for one. I don't think Matt is a secured creditor. And I think you miss a point. Your statement is akin to a train heading toward a collapsed bridge and you saying "they've only been putting on the brakes for 15 seconds"... it's irrelevant how long the breaks have been applied, only how much further the train has to go compared to how much time is left. You're making an argument for not holding a possible bankruptcy against the new sales/marketing team, not that it won't happen. That may be fair enough that they're doing a good job in the time allotted, but to Matt's point, they aren't going to be afforded more time merely because they weren't handed enough to start with. Using the ATM would be difficult at this point. There may be some one of the other sources that come through, but there certainly is no guarantee. Maybe, maybe there is some really good news on insurance coverage front that would strengthen stock enough to make ATM viable. I don't know if Matt is still invested. I still own a sizable chunk, so I'm still hoping, but at least being realistic about it. I certainly wouldn't recommend this stock to anyone that can't afford to have it go to $0. Obviously I think the odds are better than Vegas... else I'd be in Vegas where at least someone would serve me drinks while I cry over lost money.
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Post by boomboom on Oct 12, 2016 22:15:20 GMT -5
I don't think the issue is that no one cares about hypos as my experience in speaking with many diabetics and doctors, including endos is that they do. I think it is more that there are still many issues that have not been clarified and that docs think anyone between 7.0 and 8.0 in general is under control. Issues in my opinion that still need to be resolved are as follows: 1. Lifetime best Hba1c without severe hypos is possible 2. Insurance coverage 3. Proper use and titration, (question of how to does and how much need to count carbs) 4. Real hard cost to patients That's sort of the whole point. What do the diabetics really care about and how does afrezza address those issues? If hypoglycemia isn't high on their list, then it doesn't seem to make much sense spending a lot of money advertising that aspect of afrezza. I think you are missing the point by mannmade. Hypoglycemia is definitely high on the list for things that you do not want to see happen to PWDs which is more the reason why 7.0 and 8.0 A1Cs are "acceptable". If you mis-dose your prandial there is a high likely hood of being hypo because of the long tail. With Afrezza that risk is virtually gone (evidence of patients taking Afrezza WITHOUT a meal just to see how low they would really go). I have a friend who is an endo and when I told him about the A1Cs that patients on Afrezza were achieving the first response was not "Wow that is great"...it was actually "Whoa, thats dangerous, they should be cautious of hypos". I was confused because my introduction to diabetes started with learning about Afrezza so that was my standard. I was not until I realized what target A1Cs SHOULD be versus what they currently are. If the target A1C for patients was actually to achieve non-diabetic numbers...hypos would have been the highest on the list of reasons to use Afrezza..
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Post by mannmade on Oct 12, 2016 22:21:36 GMT -5
For clarification what I meant was that doctors and pwd need to better understand that they may be able to lower their Hba1c's with a much lower risk of severe hypos if any at all. Until this is understood there is confusion about AFREZZA and it's real world benefits.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2016 22:28:45 GMT -5
That's sort of the whole point. What do the diabetics really care about and how does afrezza address those issues? If hypoglycemia isn't high on their list, then it doesn't seem to make much sense spending a lot of money advertising that aspect of afrezza. I think you are missing the point by mannmade. Hypoglycemia is definitely high on the list for things that you do not want to see happen to PWDs which is more the reason why 7.0 and 8.0 A1Cs are "acceptable". If you mis-dose your prandial there is a high likely hood of being hypo because of the long tail. With Afrezza that risk is virtually gone (evidence of patients taking Afrezza WITHOUT a meal just to see how low they would really go). I have a friend who is an endo and when I told him about the A1Cs that patients on Afrezza were achieving the first response was not "Wow that is great"...it was actually "Whoa, thats dangerous, they should be cautious of hypos". I was confused because my introduction to diabetes started with learning about Afrezza so that was my standard. I was not until I realized what target A1Cs SHOULD be versus what they currently are. If the target A1C for patients was actually to achieve non-diabetic numbers...hypos would have been the highest on the list of reasons to use Afrezza.. when was that conversation with your endo friend ? 3 months? 1 yr? is he well versed with Afrezza now ? any of his patients on Afrezza with the same unbelievable results ? he must be familiar with the CGM range of his current patients on injectables. Did he ever attempt to look around on Afrezza and all the anecdotal time in zone cgm shots?
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Post by boomboom on Oct 12, 2016 22:50:03 GMT -5
I think you are missing the point by mannmade. Hypoglycemia is definitely high on the list for things that you do not want to see happen to PWDs which is more the reason why 7.0 and 8.0 A1Cs are "acceptable". If you mis-dose your prandial there is a high likely hood of being hypo because of the long tail. With Afrezza that risk is virtually gone (evidence of patients taking Afrezza WITHOUT a meal just to see how low they would really go). I have a friend who is an endo and when I told him about the A1Cs that patients on Afrezza were achieving the first response was not "Wow that is great"...it was actually "Whoa, thats dangerous, they should be cautious of hypos". I was confused because my introduction to diabetes started with learning about Afrezza so that was my standard. I was not until I realized what target A1Cs SHOULD be versus what they currently are. If the target A1C for patients was actually to achieve non-diabetic numbers...hypos would have been the highest on the list of reasons to use Afrezza.. when was that conversation with your endo friend ? 3 months? 1 yr? is he well versed with Afrezza now ? any of his patients on Afrezza with the same unbelievable results ? he must be familiar with the CGM range of his current patients on injectables. Did he ever attempt to look around on Afrezza and all the anecdotal time in zone cgm shots? This conversation was well over a year ago. He has prescribed it to one patient. Their clinic has a total of 3 patients last time I heard. His patient stayed on it and is doing well on it; however, that patient was needle averse which is why it was prescribed to him. I have softly mentioned the REAL benefits that I have witnessed on social media of other users but do not want to sound like I am telling him what to do. I would much prefer he hear it from a professional in his field and make that conclusion himself. It holds much more merit. I ask questions periodically to get insight on their method of treatment and I hear the obvious gaps Afrezza can fill. The continuous response I get when I bring up Afrezza is "sounds great but its tough to take a risk without more long-term patient data". I try to explain all the clinical trials and how many are currently on it but that does not seem to hold much merit quite yet.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2016 22:56:12 GMT -5
when was that conversation with your endo friend ? 3 months? 1 yr? is he well versed with Afrezza now ? any of his patients on Afrezza with the same unbelievable results ? he must be familiar with the CGM range of his current patients on injectables. Did he ever attempt to look around on Afrezza and all the anecdotal time in zone cgm shots? This conversation was well over a year ago. He has prescribed it to one patient. Their clinic has a total of 3 patients last time I heard. His patient stayed on it and is doing well on it; however, that patient was needle averse which is why it was prescribed to him. I have softly mentioned the REAL benefits that I have witnessed on social media of other users but do not want to sound like I am telling him what to do. I would much prefer he hear it from a professional in his field and make that conclusion himself. It holds much more merit.I ask questions periodically to get insight on their method of treatment and I hear the obvious gaps Afrezza can fill. The continuous response I get when I bring up Afrezza is "sounds great but its tough to take a risk without more long-term patient data". I try to explain all the clinical trials and how many are currently on it but that does not seem to hold much merit quite yet. Thats just bad personality. Its the words that matter not the person who tells it. it takes about a day to read papers published and see how Afrezza can be tuned for better control.
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Post by sweedee79 on Oct 13, 2016 10:21:41 GMT -5
I don't think the issue is that no one cares about hypos as my experience in speaking with many diabetics and doctors, including endos is that they do. I think it is more that there are still many issues that have not been clarified and that docs think anyone between 7.0 and 8.0 in general is under control. Issues in my opinion that still need to be resolved are as follows: 1. Lifetime best Hba1c without severe hypos is possible 2. Insurance coverage 3. Proper use and titration, (question of how to does and how much need to count carbs) 4. Real hard cost to patients That's sort of the whole point. What do the diabetics really care about and how does afrezza address those issues? If hypoglycemia isn't high on their list, then it doesn't seem to make much sense spending a lot of money advertising that aspect of afrezza. it does make sense... it seems to me at this point that is all they can say without label change and I'm surprised they can even claim less hypos.. it all depends on how educated the PWD patient is.... many have accepted their present situation as it is(brainwashing by docs and standard of care) .. they don't know there is something better .. I noticed this with my dad.. but these ads catch peoples attention .. is it going to be the BIG THING that we need? NO .. but it will help .. and yes this situation is nerve racking.. its going to take time .... time and money ... Mnkd is going to have to get more money from someplace... work on insurance issues .. etc etc .. and it seems to me that the SNY debacle did some damage that we have to catch up on .. I'm not looking at the script counts right now, becuz I think that its going to take TV ads to really get this thing rolling.. I believe it will be patient driven... and the insurance coverage and doc education needs to be there when the patients come ... even if the docs aren't totally in the game at least they will have heard of it..
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2016 10:42:03 GMT -5
We need more cash. End of story. No cash, no company.
Maybe Mike's team is now starting to run like a well oiled machine, he accomplished a lot in a short time period but we are where we are and NRx growth has been minimal and even if it starts to ramp a consistent 20% W/W starting this Friday, the story remains the same, we need cash.
Any hint of raising money in the equity markets will torpedo SP. If this thing has legs, $30mm from Mann Group couldn't hurt and with 20% W/W NRx growth along with strong TRx growth the $30mm could get sales and cash flow to a point where investors would have more confidence. Mann Group may or may not be convinced that V 2.0 has legs and if they believe its a slow roll with legs, $30 mm isn't nearly enough $$.
Receptor putting up $$? I am skeptical even though there is another 38+ page thread discussing the deal.
Part of the challenge investing in a company like MNKD is you never know with any certainty if the company is on the cusp so a battle of nerves ensues.
Regarding ProBoard Matt's comments, I'll assume if we don't hear about a money raise or adverse information between now and the Q release, it means they have some $$ coming from somewhere. Per ProBoard Matt's comments, MNKD execs and board cannot run the cash tank to 0 and then file - if they did that they would have some very serious personal problems.
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