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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 10, 2016 15:02:21 GMT -5
Agreed that they need a more cash beyond what they have until 4th quarter 2017 and I said as much at the beginning of this thread. The idea that it will not break $1 by the end of next year is based on what? Your hunch? A feeling?MNKD management explicitly said in the call that they project that the listing issue will not be a problem at all by the time it becomes an important issue. I'm inclined to trust their sense of this given where they are and where you are. Calling for a reverse split in the next two months given what is happening in the next two months and where they are now is not a conservative idea but an ignorant and foolish one. You should check all the discussion of reverse splitting in previous posts and do a little DD about RS and youll see that given where the share price is a RS will be seen as an act of desperation. It would be an especially bad signal to the market now(more so than before), given what they have accomplished and announced yesterday. It would say to the market that management believes that they have no faith or ability to raise cash anyways else. It certainly would give a new direction:downwards. Matt P in the call put this nonsense to rest given where they are. I'm certainly more comfortable with their analysis about an RS than yours. As for the failed ? plan its not even really started or implemented yet; that's why they needed more cash to extend the runway. It doesnt seem you are paying attention to what transpired yesterday. My opinion is based upon having watched and being invested in this stock for literally much of the past 12 years. In that time I have seen the same mistakes repeated over and over by management. I have also seen investors repeatedly making the same mistake of listening to optimism from management rather than taking a pragmatic view of what is possible. When we were early in the process of trying to sell, there was some reason to think it might go differently. Now, there is a significant amount of evidence on the other side. My question would be, what would you base any other opinion on? That is a hunch or feeling if you ask me. At this present moment, the market is pricing the stock at $.64 which equates to roughly $300M market cap. This will decrease every month that the trajectory of sales does not increase and it shows no signs of doing so. It's not worth $1 if it never achieves positive operational margin (the balance of assets and liabilities aside). The market cap has increased approximately $85M since the announcement. That is the difference in value to the balance sheet for what was announced. Everything else is hot air and we can debate ad-nauseum about the value of such prospects. The market seems to be adding nothing for it. It doesn't seem like you are paying attention to what has transpired over the past 2 years. I wish you luck. I actually do. Afrezza is a game changing treatment for patients. Certainly we have seen that when combined with CGM it can dramatically improve clinical outcomes. It can save life and limb. It also is very likely that Afrezza would be the perfect early intervention for Type 2. There certainly have been many missteps by Mannkind in the past, but you shouldn't confuse the problems that we've faced as an indication that Afrezza is not useful and therefore marketable. There are stiff headwinds in the market, but as long as MNKD can extend the runway, the medical community will come around. |
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Post by matt on Nov 10, 2016 15:06:11 GMT -5
I am glad they got the insulin put accelerated, as that gives the company much needed runway and takes away the imminent danger of bankruptcy. Losing the Sanofi LT debt was a nice trick, one that I would be mighty upset about if I were a Sanofi shareholder (Matt gets lots of brownie points for that one), but it sure helps especially if they can now find a buyer for Valencia as that can probably provide another quarter of runway. Long term though, while it is nice to not have the Sanofi debt it wasn't due for another 7 years or so the cash situation is just back where it was in June or so.
So it comes down to what it has always come down to; growing scripts fast enough to incentivize the financial markets. That means getting pricing to stick without the large gross to net adjustments, driving unit volume, and getting the manufacturing cost in line so that the gross margin is positive. If they do that, Mannkind will survive and if they don't this was just a temporary reprieve.
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Post by compound26 on Nov 10, 2016 15:06:33 GMT -5
Folks may not like my opinion here, but I think MNKD needs much more than 1 year of cash runway to find success. I think the plan needs to extend out 2-3 years at this point. They need to demonstrate staying power and somehow deal with the label issues which might require additional testing. Something like an open label study with a different protocol could make a huge difference here. There is also the pending safety study. While I still think there is a case to be made for that study to be deferred, it is going to create a new overhang soon. I don't see much chance of the share price breaking $1.00 in the next year. MNKD really needs to be taking a conservative approach and swallow the reverse split and dilution to raise $100 - $150M. They should be doing this in the near future (30 - 60 days) while there is still some enthusiasm from this news to balance the steady drip of low scripts. They need to generate a new direction to give the market something to look forward to and the potential for some additional data could provide an emotional lift. All there is right now is some more cash to burn away on what looks to be a failed plan. The drug is too good for that. No signs that plan has failed yet. They just need to time to implement it and reap the benefit, and management has certainly pulled off extending the runway more than I thought they could without dilution. My confidence has been restored. I agree with you. I think Matt, Mike and Ray are getting more comfortable with their respective positions as CEO, CCO and CMO and they are improving themselves every day. I see them working as a great team right now. I think that's the best bet I have right now (of course, we all know Afrezza is a great product and TS is a great platform, that's given). As I stated in another post, I fully expect the management to be able to further extend the runway well into 2018 in the next few months with no significant dilution (via a combination of RLS milestones, Epi inhaler license, Afrezza international deal, ATM at a higher PPS, and proceeds from exercise of warranties when PPS is above $1.50). The fact that Mannkind has not elected to R/S and dilute or to tap the ATM by now indicates that management considers these measures to be too dilutive at the moment. I agree with the management on this point. IMHO, there is a high probability that the PPS will break $1.0 in the very near future and stay above that level for a long time (therefore address the de-listing concern) and there is a good chance that the PPS reaches $2-4 within the next 12 months. That's my feeling both before and after this conference call. I increased my exposure to Mannkind via leap by 1/2 in the few days before this conference call and may add some more later. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Nov 10, 2016 15:06:40 GMT -5
I'm not in this just for Afrezza but rather in for Epihale, RLS... Anyone of these three has big potential in the coming year to relatively quickly bring about changes to dwarf our current market cap. As the market is forward looking, I believe Epihale could very well take center stage in the coming six months or so. I don't know much about management in the past, but I'm very trusting and comfortable with the management of now.
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Post by sweedee79 on Nov 10, 2016 15:08:56 GMT -5
I don't think the scripts were being held down due to the cash situation. With that said, I don't know what's holding them down. Listening to Mike C. I got the sense the issue is much more complicated than we initially assumed. I'm hoping Mannkind takes advantage of the recent momentum and tries to sell off the drug. I still don't think they can do this on their own, though I would love to be proven wrong. IMO our expectations have been too high.. Any new drug that comes to market takes time to penetrate and gain momentum and we have certainly had our issues especially with what happened with SNY ...
www.mckinsey.com/industries/pharmaceuticals-and-medical-products/our-insights/the-secret-of-successful-drug-launches
I think the 2.0 launch and strategy is right on, and Mike C is amazing ... Matt seems to be doing a wonderful job as well. The reps are out there saying what they can say by FDA standards and what is allowed by label... we are working on a label change so we can really differentiate our product .... we are also working on insurance issues and making progress.. It sounds like the big DTC campaign wont start until mid 2017 .. IMO we wont see a large increase in scripts until Q3 of next year ... until then it will just be a slow and steady climb upward .. JMHO
We will need more cash for all of this... but I trust Matt will figure that out.. After yesterdays CC I feel more optimistic than ever... I believe in the product totally .. and while it is still a long shot I picked up 30K more shares today ..
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Post by surplusvalue on Nov 10, 2016 15:23:25 GMT -5
Agreed that they need a more cash beyond what they have until 4th quarter 2017 and I said as much at the beginning of this thread. The idea that it will not break $1 by the end of next year is based on what? Your hunch? A feeling?MNKD management explicitly said in the call that they project that the listing issue will not be a problem at all by the time it becomes an important issue. I'm inclined to trust their sense of this given where they are and where you are. Calling for a reverse split in the next two months given what is happening in the next two months and where they are now is not a conservative idea but an ignorant and foolish one. You should check all the discussion of reverse splitting in previous posts and do a little DD about RS and youll see that given where the share price is a RS will be seen as an act of desperation. It would be an especially bad signal to the market now(more so than before), given what they have accomplished and announced yesterday. It would say to the market that management believes that they have no faith or ability to raise cash anyways else. It certainly would give a new direction:downwards. Matt P in the call put this nonsense to rest given where they are. I'm certainly more comfortable with their analysis about an RS than yours. As for the failed ? plan its not even really started or implemented yet; that's why they needed more cash to extend the runway. It doesnt seem you are paying attention to what transpired yesterday. My opinion is based upon having watched and being invested in this stock for literally much of the past 12 years. In that time I have seen the same mistakes repeated over and over by management. I have also seen investors repeatedly making the same mistake of listening to optimism from management rather than taking a pragmatic view of what is possible. When we were early in the process of trying to sell, there was some reason to think it might go differently. Now, there is a significant amount of evidence on the other side. My question would be, what would you base any other opinion on? That is a hunch or feeling if you ask me. At this present moment, the market is pricing the stock at $.64 which equates to roughly $300M market cap. This will decrease every month that the trajectory of sales does not increase and it shows no signs of doing so. It's not worth $1 if it never achieves positive operational margin (the balance of assets and liabilities aside). The market cap has increased approximately $85M since the announcement. That is the difference in value to the balance sheet for what was announced. Everything else is hot air and we can debate ad-nauseum about the value of such prospects. The market seems to be adding nothing for it. It doesn't seem like you are paying attention to what has transpired over the past 2 years. I wish you luck. I actually do. After 12 years i would be more than skeptical as well and if I was taking a 12 year timeline I would probably see this as a failure as well of the company and my own investment. However, if you check my posts you'll see anything but fawning all over management;I have no trouble pointing out what has clearly been some horrendous decisions on their part. The last two years they placed all their trust in another company with no real oversight and no plan if it went south; just terrible which is an understatement. They have gone from a production and research company to a commercializing entity in a very short time (4 months) and despite that Mike has developed good metrics (look at the slides and explanations) over what has transpired in the last 4 months and they have accomplished much more relative to what Sanofi did. They have a pragmatic plan and are sticking to it but adjusting as they meet roadblocks and are paying attention to those weaknesses that are relevant to what they are trying to accomplish now. So I am basing my perspective on what has transpired and what is going on now; not fixated on a past or evidence that is more relevant to when they were just a research and production company. If you are always looking in the rear view mirror with all its baggage then you're not paying attention to the road ahead. Believe me I have both eyes open and make it a practice to carefully reserve positive judgment when its merited especially since this is not my first rodeo. It certainly was very poor judgment by management to let the cash situation get so out of hand but they have stepped back from the precipice just in time. Good luck to both of us as I think we will need it also but certainly wont only rely on it. |
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Post by alethea on Nov 10, 2016 15:27:51 GMT -5
I am glad they got the insulin put accelerated, as that gives the company much needed runway and takes away the imminent danger of bankruptcy. Losing the Sanofi LT debt was a nice trick, one that I would be mighty upset about if I were a Sanofi shareholder (Matt gets lots of brownie points for that one), but it sure helps especially if they can now find a buyer for Valencia as that can probably provide another quarter of runway. Long term though, while it is nice to not have the Sanofi debt it wasn't due for another 7 years or so the cash situation is just back where it was in June or so.So it comes down to what it has always come down to; growing scripts fast enough to incentivize the financial markets. That means getting pricing to stick without the large gross to net adjustments, driving unit volume, and getting the manufacturing cost in line so that the gross margin is positive. If they do that, Mannkind will survive and if they don't this was just a temporary reprieve. Don't forget that they receive $30 M by next January for insulin they do NOT even have to purchase. I view this as a new or fresh $30 million. (Not to mention the $10 MNKD will receive next month). So NO, I don't agree the cash situation is just where it was last June or so. And as you said, they will likely get in excess of $20 for the sale of the Valencia property. |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 10, 2016 15:33:20 GMT -5
I don't think the scripts were being held down due to the cash situation. With that said, I don't know what's holding them down. Listening to Mike C. I got the sense the issue is much more complicated than we initially assumed. I'm hoping Mannkind takes advantage of the recent momentum and tries to sell off the drug. I still don't think they can do this on their own, though I would love to be proven wrong. I have to disagree. While I do not think it was/is the only reason I know for sure that it has played a significant part. I had lunch last week with one of my close doctor friends who as many know happens to be one of the top 5 prescribers in the country and was a KOL for Sanofi and is now doing same for MannKind. He told me several times over the last few months he had stopped prescribing AFREZZA until he could figure out if they would be around. When I had lunch with him last week he was re-energized and very excited and told me he had started to prescribe again based on what he was now seeing from 2.0. |
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Post by isler45 on Nov 10, 2016 15:38:39 GMT -5
Was anything mentioned about a RLS milestone payment yesterday?
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Post by bighaus89 on Nov 10, 2016 15:48:06 GMT -5
Was anything mentioned about a RLS milestone payment yesterday? They mentioned Q4 2016 for some initial something. I don't recall exactly what it was. I also recall them saying previously that they expected a milestone before EOY 2016. |
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Post by compound26 on Nov 10, 2016 15:56:19 GMT -5
I am glad they go t the insulin put accelerated, as that gives the company much needed runway and takes away the imminent danger of bankruptcy. Losing the Sanofi LT debt was a nice trick, one that I would be mighty upset about if I were a Sanofi shareholder (Matt gets lots of brownie points for that one), but it sure helps especially if they can now find a buyer for Valencia as that can probably provide another quarter of runway. Long term though, while it is nice to not have the Sanofi debt it wasn't due for another 7 years or so the cash situation is just back where it was in June or so.So it comes down to what it has always come down to; growing scripts fast enough to incentivize the financial markets. That means getting pricing to stick without the large gross to net adjustments, driving unit volume, and getting the manufacturing cost in line so that the gross margin is positive. If they do that, Mannkind will survive and if they don't this was just a temporary reprieve. Don't forget that they receive $30 M by next January for insulin they do NOT even have to purchase. I view this as a new or fresh $30 million. (Not to mention the $10 MNKD will receive next month). So NO, I don't agree the cash situation is just where it was last June or so. And as you said, they will likely get in excess of $20 for the sale of the Valencia property. agree. It was much more than "the insulin put accelerated". For the $30 million to be received first quarter 2016, Mannkind has no obligation to deliver insulin to Sanofi. If it is just insulin put accelerated, Mannkind will need to come up with insulin that presumably worth about $30 million and deliver it to Sanofi. |
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Post by lakers on Nov 10, 2016 16:06:05 GMT -5
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 10, 2016 22:04:39 GMT -5
I am glad they got the insulin put accelerated, as that gives the company much needed runway and takes away the imminent danger of bankruptcy. Losing the Sanofi LT debt was a nice trick, one that I would be mighty upset about if I were a Sanofi shareholder (Matt gets lots of brownie points for that one), but it sure helps especially if they can now find a buyer for Valencia as that can probably provide another quarter of runway. Long term though, while it is nice to not have the Sanofi debt it wasn't due for another 7 years or so the cash situation is just back where it was in June or so. So it comes down to what it has always come down to; growing scripts fast enough to incentivize the financial markets. That means getting pricing to stick without the large gross to net adjustments, driving unit volume, and getting the manufacturing cost in line so that the gross margin is positive. If they do that, Mannkind will survive and if they don't this was just a temporary reprieve. Sanofi doesn't expect Mannkind to survive or at a minimum expect it to become one of the walking dead. That being the case writing off the debt lets them accelerate a loss that they expect to take in the future. Likewise the $30 million for the insulin put is accelerating a loss they expect to have to take. Handing over Valencia was a nice gesture and I am curious as to why they did that, maybe they could not take the loss if they held it. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 11, 2016 6:45:04 GMT -5
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Post by me on Nov 11, 2016 9:54:22 GMT -5
I am glad they got the insulin put accelerated, as that gives the company much needed runway and takes away the imminent danger of bankruptcy. Losing the Sanofi LT debt was a nice trick, one that I would be mighty upset about if I were a Sanofi shareholder (Matt gets lots of brownie points for that one), but it sure helps especially if they can now find a buyer for Valencia as that can probably provide another quarter of runway. Long term though, while it is nice to not have the Sanofi debt it wasn't due for another 7 years or so the cash situation is just back where it was in June or so. So it comes down to what it has always come down to; growing scripts fast enough to incentivize the financial markets. That means getting pricing to stick without the large gross to net adjustments, driving unit volume, and getting the manufacturing cost in line so that the gross margin is positive. If they do that, Mannkind will survive and if they don't this was just a temporary reprieve. Sanofi doesn't expect Mannkind to survive or at a minimum expect it to become one of the walking dead. That being the case writing off the debt lets them accelerate a loss that they expect to take in the future. Likewise the $30 million for the insulin put is accelerating a loss they expect to have to take. Handing over Valencia was a nice gesture and I am curious as to why they did that, maybe they could not take the loss if they held it. These two posts right here are prime examples of how you might try to turn a little brightness from the conference call into a sh*t sandwich, although some portions are a bit more subtle than the rest. 1. agedhippie, how in the world do you know that SNY is expecting MNKD to go belly up? Did anyone in the C-suite tell you that? Do you have access to some internal memo? 2. agedhippie, how is it that the agreement to buy out the insulin put for $30 million amounts to "accelerating a loss they expect to take?!" If they had not done so, they would have otherwise received $30 million worth of insulin in exchange for $30 million. With this, however, they are out their $30 million, but have no insulin to show for it. 3. agedhippie, "Handing over Valencia was a nice gesture?" It wasn't a gesture at all, it was the security against the LT loan that they forgave. Nor, was having the LT loan forgiven a "nice trick," as matt says. It was the result of negotiations that Matt P had with SNY, which in the realm of Davids "negotiating" with Goliaths, means that there must have been some substantive strength/leverage supporting Matt P's position. (I guess the existence of the Arbitration provision didn't really gut MNKD's negotiating strength as greatly as you have suggested on this board on many occasions?) As you and others have continued to warn us naive investors, big business is a dog-eat-dog world and nobody plays nice, so we know SNY didn't do this out of the goodness of its heart. None of the rest of us know (although there have been numerous reasonable scenarios put forward on this board, with the likelihood that at least one was correct) what that leverage/strength may have been, but we all hope when you find out from your contact in the C-suite at SNY, that you share it with us. Now, does anyone here have any idea when we might see that BK PR? |
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