|
|
Post by surplusvalue on Nov 10, 2016 10:48:42 GMT -5
Well, shut my mouth. ..they did time it perfectly for the CC. Bankruptcy off the table. Besides doing a great job of turning the company around which I noted before, Matt P. has redeemed himself in accomplishing the settlement with Sanofi and Amphastar. I have been critical of Matt P for not raising cash earlier and this was pretty close to the wire. Mike himself said that the volatility of the scripts was due in part to reluctance by people to prescribe/take Afrezza given
MNKD's precarious financial state. Glad to see this issue finally eliminated and that they have cash until 3rd quarter 2017. Solution without dilution.Glad to also see that they were also not considering an RS which came up repeatedly by some posters here and which I argued vehemently against.
Happy to see that my expressed view confirmed that MNKD had a longer timeline for scripts etc than 4 months. Mike said more than once that it takes a lot longer to commercialize a drug and that even sales personnel take about 6 months to get firm footing. This is why I stated repeatedly that the script development would take a lot longer than many were expecting and that we wouldnt have a sense of what was happening until December. Glad to see they are following the plan first endos and then rolling out patient demand through more DTC efforts including more print ads and placements and TV advertising in 2017. The cash issue was certainly important to provide the ability to carry out this second phase of DTC efforts. Titration and efficacy are still problematic and they are addressing this with new larger combination cartridge packs. Excellent that they are hiring Top notch full time sales in early 2017 to improve sales beyond touchpoint contract sales people. They are building this with an eye to a firm committed sales foundation and doing this after getting some of the kinks out of retention. Very smart.
I can see blue skies now for them to continue their plans for 2.0. With the runaway extended they still have alot of work to do with scripts which will build slowly and more effectively as things take hold and they expand the sales and marketing forces.
This said there is still a prospect of some milestone payment from RLS and once they move the shareprice to 1.50 they can raise more cash (besides the ATM/Mann group etc) . I for one would like to see them do this since they dont want to get themselves back into this corner again 4th quarter 2017. They have reduced costs but also no doubt will have increased costs for label change, pediatric study/submission etc and epi submission, most of which will be completed in 4th quarter 2017 so these important benefits (label change etc) will begin to kick in not until 2018 so they will need cash for 4th quarter 2017 and beyond. Matt P. has probably learned from this experience and he will not be able to rely on a Sanofi settlement next time as they will be gone (good riddance). Here's thinking that MNKD will now operate like other commercializing biotechs and raise cash when they can well in advance.
GLTA.
|
|
|
|
Post by slugworth008 on Nov 10, 2016 11:10:14 GMT -5
Well, shut my mouth. ..they did time it perfectly for the CC. Bankruptcy off the table. Besides doing a great job of turning the company around which I noted before, Matt P. has redeemed himself in accomplishing the settlement with Sanofi and Amphastar. I have been critical of Matt P for not raising cash earlier and this was pretty close to the wire. Mike himself said that the volatility of the scripts was due in part to reluctance by people to prescribe/take Afrezza given MNKD's precarious financial state. Glad to see this issue finally eliminated and that they have cash until 3rd quarter 2017. Solution without dilution.Glad to also see that they were also not considering an RS which came up repeatedly by some posters here and which I argued vehemently against. Happy to see that my expressed view confirmed that MNKD had a longer timeline for scripts etc than 4 months. Mike said more than once that it takes a lot longer to commercialize a drug and that even sales personnel take about 6 months to get firm footing. This is why I stated repeatedly that the script development would take a lot longer than many were expecting and that we wouldnt have a sense of what was happening until December. Glad to see they are following the plan first endos and then rolling out patient demand through more DTC efforts including more print ads and placements and TV advertising in 2017. The cash issue was certainly important to provide the ability to carry out this second phase of DTC efforts. Titration and efficacy are still problematic and they are addressing this with new larger combination cartridge packs. Excellent that they are hiring Top notch full time sales in early 2017 to improve sales beyond touchpoint contract sales people. They are building this with an eye to a firm committed sales foundation and doing this after getting some of the kinks out of retention. Very smart. I can see blue skies now for them to continue their plans for 2.0. With the runaway extended they still have alot of work to do with scripts which will build slowly and more effectively as things take hold and they expand the sales and marketing forces. This said there is still a prospect of some milestone payment from RLS and once they move the shareprice to 1.50 they can raise more cash (besides the ATM/Mann group etc) . I for one would like to see them do this since they dont want to get themselves back into this corner again 4th quarter 2017. They have reduced costs but also no doubt will have increased costs for label change, pediatric study/submission etc and epi submission, most of which will be completed in 4th quarter 2017 so these important benefits (label change etc) will begin to kick in not until 2018 so they will need cash for 4th quarter 2017 and beyond. Matt P. has probably learned from this experience and he will not be able to rely on a Sanofi settlement next time as they will be gone (good riddance). Here's thinking that MNKD will now operate like other commercializing biotechs and raise cash when they can well in advance. GLTA. Nice post Surplus...We both suspected (knew) that scripts were being hampered due to MNKD's cash situation. With that removed I believe we WILL see a steady rise in scripts. Great job by Matt and Mike. Whew........we needed that one. |
|
|
|
Post by dictatorsaurus on Nov 10, 2016 11:15:52 GMT -5
Nice post Surplus...We both suspected (knew) that scripts were being hampered due to MNKD's cash situation. With that removed I believe we WILL see a steady rise in scripts. Great job by Matt and Mike. Whew........we needed that one. I don't think the scripts were being held down due to the cash situation. With that said, I don't know what's holding them down. Listening to Mike C. I got the sense the issue is much more complicated than we initially assumed. I'm hoping Mannkind takes advantage of the recent momentum and tries to sell off the drug. I still don't think they can do this on their own, though I would love to be proven wrong. |
|
|
|
Post by surplusvalue on Nov 10, 2016 11:28:12 GMT -5
I don't think the scripts were being held down due to the cash situation. With that said, I don't know what's holding them down. Listening to Mike C. I got the sense the issue is much more complicated than we initially assumed. I'm hoping Mannkind takes advantage of the recent momentum and tries to sell off the drug. I still don't think they can do this on their own, though I would love to be proven wrong. Wrong and right. Listen to the call gain . Mike explicitly stated that the prospect of MNKD's dire financial situation leading to the prospect of MNKD going away did limit new scripts. No one stated that that was the only reason so yes it is a bit more complicated since it wasnt the only factor (hurricane, efficacy/titration, limited DTC efforts, too early into commercialization etc. ) We get it , you are a glass is half empty kind of guy, blues skies is an analogy...you cant get much done in the pouring rain. At least the blues skies allows you to get to work and move forward. Yes, MNKD still has alot of work to do. |
|
|
|
Post by comnkd on Nov 10, 2016 11:38:20 GMT -5
Re: hiring of FT Sales personnel in 2017... Novo just recently had a round of layoffs. Great opportunity to hire on knowledgeable reps with established relationships to reduce sales ramp time.
"Hello, Doctor."
"Do you know what pairs well with Tresiba?"
|
|
|
|
Post by karl on Nov 10, 2016 11:43:01 GMT -5
I did read somewhere a testimony in which the patient was told by the doctor that the reason he was not prescribing Afrezza is that it would soon cease to exist.
|
|
|
|
Post by lakers on Nov 10, 2016 12:01:07 GMT -5
Nate said there were warrants at $1.50 and higher. The owner may choose to convert to stock at $1.50; hence, another source of cash.
|
|
|
|
Post by slugworth008 on Nov 10, 2016 12:03:29 GMT -5
I don't think the scripts were being held down due to the cash situation. With that said, I don't know what's holding them down. Listening to Mike C. I got the sense the issue is much more complicated than we initially assumed. I'm hoping Mannkind takes advantage of the recent momentum and tries to sell off the drug. I still don't think they can do this on their own, though I would love to be proven wrong. Wrong and right. Listen to the call gain . Mike explicitly stated that the prospect of MNKD's dire financial situation leading to the prospect of MNKD going away did limit new scripts. No one stated that that was the only reason so yes it is a bit more complicated since it wasnt the only factor (hurricane, efficacy/titration, limited DTC efforts, too early into commercialization etc. ) We get it , you are a glass is half empty kind of guy, blues skies is an analogy...you cant get much done in the pouring rain. At least the blues skies allows you to get to work and move forward. Yes, MNKD still has alot of work to do. From this day forward - dictatorsaurus will be known as "eeyore". |
|
|
|
Post by surplusvalue on Nov 10, 2016 12:07:28 GMT -5
Nate said there were warrants at $1.50 and higher. The owner may choose to convert to stock at $1.50; hence, another source of cash. Yes , that is correct and exactly what I referred to above at the beginning of this thread. MNKD will need this and more. |
|
|
|
Post by james on Nov 10, 2016 13:31:04 GMT -5
Folks may not like my opinion here, but I think MNKD needs much more than 1 year of cash runway to find success. I think the plan needs to extend out 2-3 years at this point. They need to demonstrate staying power and somehow deal with the label issues which might require additional testing. Something like an open label study with a different protocol could make a huge difference here. There is also the pending safety study. While I still think there is a case to be made for that study to be deferred, it is going to create a new overhang soon. I don't see much chance of the share price breaking $1.00 in the next year. MNKD really needs to be taking a conservative approach and swallow the reverse split and dilution to raise $100 - $150M. They should be doing this in the near future (30 - 60 days) while there is still some enthusiasm from this news to balance the steady drip of low scripts. They need to generate a new direction to give the market something to look forward to and the potential for some additional data could provide an emotional lift. All there is right now is some more cash to burn away on what looks to be a failed plan. The drug is too good for that.
|
|
|
|
Post by surplusvalue on Nov 10, 2016 14:22:56 GMT -5
Folks may not like my opinion here, but I think MNKD needs much more than 1 year of cash runway to find success. I think the plan needs to extend out 2-3 years at this point. They need to demonstrate staying power and somehow deal with the label issues which might require additional testing. Something like an open label study with a different protocol could make a huge difference here. There is also the pending safety study. While I still think there is a case to be made for that study to be deferred, it is going to create a new overhang soon. I don't see much chance of the share price breaking $1.00 in the next year. MNKD really needs to be taking a conservative approach and swallow the reverse split and dilution to raise $100 - $150M. They should be doing this in the near future (30 - 60 days) while there is still some enthusiasm from this news to balance the steady drip of low scripts. They need to generate a new direction to give the market something to look forward to and the potential for some additional data could provide an emotional lift. All there is right now is some more cash to burn away on what looks to be a failed plan. The drug is too good for that. Agreed that they need a more cash beyond what they have until 4th quarter 2017 and that they need to continue to raise more cash as they go along like any other commercializing entity. I said as much at the beginning of this thread. The idea that it will not break $1 by the end of next year is based on what? Your hunch? A feeling?MNKD management explicitly said in the call that they project that the listing issue will not be a problem at all by the time it becomes an important issue. I'm inclined to trust their sense of this given where they are and where you are. Calling for a reverse split in the next two months given what is happening in the next two months and where they are now is not a conservative idea but an ignorant and foolish one. You should check all the discussion of reverse splitting in previous posts and do a little DD about RS and youll see that given where the share price is a RS will be seen as an act of desperation. It would be an especially bad signal to the market now(more so than before), given what they have accomplished and announced yesterday. It would say to the market that management believes that they have no faith or ability to raise cash anyways else despite what they recently accomplished. It certainly would give a new direction:downwards. Matt P in the call put this nonsense to rest given where they are. I'm certainly more comfortable with their analysis about an RS than yours. As for the failed ? plan its not even really started or implemented yet; that's why they needed more cash to extend the runway. With all due respect it doesnt seem you are paying attention to what transpired yesterday. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 10, 2016 14:36:46 GMT -5
Folks may not like my opinion here, but I think MNKD needs much more than 1 year of cash runway to find success. I think the plan needs to extend out 2-3 years at this point. They need to demonstrate staying power and somehow deal with the label issues which might require additional testing. Something like an open label study with a different protocol could make a huge difference here. There is also the pending safety study. While I still think there is a case to be made for that study to be deferred, it is going to create a new overhang soon. I don't see much chance of the share price breaking $1.00 in the next year. MNKD really needs to be taking a conservative approach and swallow the reverse split and dilution to raise $100 - $150M. They should be doing this in the near future (30 - 60 days) while there is still some enthusiasm from this news to balance the steady drip of low scripts. They need to generate a new direction to give the market something to look forward to and the potential for some additional data could provide an emotional lift. All there is right now is some more cash to burn away on what looks to be a failed plan. The drug is too good for that. No signs that plan has failed yet. They just need to time to implement it and reap the benefit, and management has certainly pulled off extending the runway more than I thought they could without dilution. My confidence has been restored. |
|
|
|
Post by james on Nov 10, 2016 14:44:14 GMT -5
Agreed that they need a more cash beyond what they have until 4th quarter 2017 and I said as much at the beginning of this thread. The idea that it will not break $1 by the end of next year is based on what? Your hunch? A feeling?MNKD management explicitly said in the call that they project that the listing issue will not be a problem at all by the time it becomes an important issue. I'm inclined to trust their sense of this given where they are and where you are. Calling for a reverse split in the next two months given what is happening in the next two months and where they are now is not a conservative idea but an ignorant and foolish one. You should check all the discussion of reverse splitting in previous posts and do a little DD about RS and youll see that given where the share price is a RS will be seen as an act of desperation. It would be an especially bad signal to the market now(more so than before), given what they have accomplished and announced yesterday. It would say to the market that management believes that they have no faith or ability to raise cash anyways else. It certainly would give a new direction:downwards. Matt P in the call put this nonsense to rest given where they are. I'm certainly more comfortable with their analysis about an RS than yours. As for the failed ? plan its not even really started or implemented yet; that's why they needed more cash to extend the runway. It doesnt seem you are paying attention to what transpired yesterday. My opinion is based upon having watched and being invested in this stock for literally much of the past 12 years. In that time I have seen the same mistakes repeated over and over by management. I have also seen investors repeatedly making the same mistake of listening to optimism from management rather than taking a pragmatic view of what is possible. When we were early in the process of trying to sell, there was some reason to think it might go differently. Now, there is a significant amount of evidence on the other side. My question would be, what would you base any other opinion on? That is a hunch or feeling if you ask me. At this present moment, the market is pricing the stock at $.64 which equates to roughly $300M market cap. This will decrease every month that the trajectory of sales does not increase and it shows no signs of doing so. It's not worth $1 if it never achieves positive operational margin (the balance of assets and liabilities aside). The market cap has increased approximately $85M since the announcement. That is the difference in value to the balance sheet for what was announced. Everything else is hot air and we can debate ad-nauseum about the value of such prospects. The market seems to be adding nothing for it. It doesn't seem like you are paying attention to what has transpired over the past 2 years. I wish you luck. I actually do. |
|
|
|
Post by bighaus89 on Nov 10, 2016 14:50:12 GMT -5
Folks may not like my opinion here, but I think MNKD needs much more than 1 year of cash runway to find success. I think the plan needs to extend out 2-3 years at this point. They need to demonstrate staying power and somehow deal with the label issues which might require additional testing. Something like an open label study with a different protocol could make a huge difference here. There is also the pending safety study. While I still think there is a case to be made for that study to be deferred, it is going to create a new overhang soon. I don't see much chance of the share price breaking $1.00 in the next year. MNKD really needs to be taking a conservative approach and swallow the reverse split and dilution to raise $100 - $150M. They should be doing this in the near future (30 - 60 days) while there is still some enthusiasm from this news to balance the steady drip of low scripts. They need to generate a new direction to give the market something to look forward to and the potential for some additional data could provide an emotional lift. All there is right now is some more cash to burn away on what looks to be a failed plan. The drug is too good for that. If they can't get scripts high enough a year from now with full scale marketing, educational endeavors, and fully deployed reps to cover their operating costs or be profitable, an extra year or two of cash on hand isn't going to make any difference. They bought the runway they needed to prove that Afrezza is a viable diabetes drug(with a soon to be improved label). Also, a partnership deal for EpiHale should add some nice up front cash to lubricate any squeaky wheels we see a year from now. |
|
|
|
Post by promann on Nov 10, 2016 14:59:26 GMT -5
Folks may not like my opinion here, but I think MNKD needs much more than 1 year of cash runway to find success. I think the plan needs to extend out 2-3 years at this point. They need to demonstrate staying power and somehow deal with the label issues which might require additional testing. Something like an open label study with a different protocol could make a huge difference here. There is also the pending safety study. While I still think there is a case to be made for that study to be deferred, it is going to create a new overhang soon. I don't see much chance of the share price breaking $1.00 in the next year. MNKD really needs to be taking a conservative approach and swallow the reverse split and dilution to raise $100 - $150M. They should be doing this in the near future (30 - 60 days) while there is still some enthusiasm from this news to balance the steady drip of low scripts. They need to generate a new direction to give the market something to look forward to and the potential for some additional data could provide an emotional lift. All there is right now is some more cash to burn away on what looks to be a failed plan. The drug is too good for that. If they can't get scripts high enough a year from now with full scale marketing, educational endeavors, and fully deployed reps to cover their operating costs or be profitable, an extra year or two of cash on hand isn't going to make any difference. They bought the runway they needed to prove that Afrezza is a viable diabetes drug(with a soon to be improved label). Also, a partnership deal for EpiHale should add some nice up front cash to lubricate any squeaky wheels we see a year from now. I have complete faith that MannKind will be profitable within 4 months and scripts will grow exponentionally from there |
|
