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Post by compound26 on Nov 11, 2016 14:19:10 GMT -5
Yes and let's not forget that Mnkd shareholders win... No dilution, a cleaned up balance sheet, no more talk of BK, RS etc (for now) and a runway extended to allow for plenty of opportunity to succeed... Big win as I see it... Nothing wrong with basking in it for a few days... Gd knows we and especially the Mnkd mgmt team has felt the pain for quite some time... Monday they go back to the business of making Mnkd/AFREZZA the success we all know it can be...  The future is bright and I do realize Mnkd is still very vulnerable but we have many things to look forward to within the next 12 months which we should be able to survive even with current financing only stated to last until 3rd Q 2017: Future Possible Opportunities:RLS Epi Partner (or Substantial Progress w FDA) Back above $1.00 (will make for better future financing if needed and above $1.50 warrants kick in for additional cash) More insurance coverage Label Change Increasing scripts which will lead to increasing revenue to offset cash burn Label Change Possible International Deal Results of pediatric studies Did I miss anything? The co-promotion opportunities mentioned by Mike. A few other trials mentioned by Ray that could provide Afrezza with "unofficial" superiority status and help Afrezza uers' initiation and titration and ultimately improve retention rate. Note that the trials will be run with CGMs (or the new Abbott Libre systemand) and conducted in three to five of the most well-respected institutions in the country. Even if a small group, say 30-50 trial participants. What if say 60-80% of them achieve A1C numbers close to or below 6.0%, with their CGM graphs look like what Sam Fina, Afrezzaguy, and other early adopters shared with us? And the results are published in a few journals?Below is what Ray said in the conference call: "We recently conducted an advisory board leading to identify ways to enhance and simplify the initiation of Afrezza in clinical practice. At the ad board they resoundingly felt that Afrezza differentiated pharmacokinetic profile made it an invaluable option for treatment of diabetes. Afrezza clearly offers advantage to keep patients within a tight glucose target range, potentially leaning to less hyper and hyperglycaemias episodes. To accomplish this, however, the proper dosing and titration of Afrezza is a paramount importance because this is one of the areas that we have seen where healthcare providers struggle. To address these issues we are planning a 12-week to 16-week time and range dose optimization study in type 1 diabetics using CGM with Dexcom or the new Abbott Libre system. This study will be conducted in three to five of the most well-respected institutions in the country, adding incredibility to the data and providing an immediate impact on clinical practice. We expect study start up to begin in the first quarter of 2017 where results sometimes in the fourth quarter. Additionally, we are planning a short pilot study for patients with type 2 diabetes that will allow us to simplify dosing initiation and titration. This will help patients get to the optimal dose quickly and effectively." seekingalpha.com/article/4021887-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-matthew-pfeffer-q3-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleAlso, let's not forget about VDEX. While I don't have any high expectation on them right now, as they perfect their model gradually, they could provide some boost to Mannkind and Afrezza. |
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Post by sweedee79 on Nov 11, 2016 15:53:17 GMT -5
These two posts right here are prime examples of how you might try to turn a little brightness from the conference call into a sh*t sandwich, although some portions are a bit more subtle than the rest. 1. agedhippie , how in the world do you know that SNY is expecting MNKD to go belly up? Did anyone in the C-suite tell you that? Do you have access to some internal memo? 2. agedhippie , how is it that the agreement to buy out the insulin put for $30 million amounts to "accelerating a loss they expect to take?!" If they had not done so, they would have otherwise received $30 million worth of insulin in exchange for $30 million. With this, however, they are out their $30 million, but have no insulin to show for it. 3. agedhippie , "Handing over Valencia was a nice gesture?" It wasn't a gesture at all, it was the security against the LT loan that they forgave. Nor, was having the LT loan forgiven a "nice trick," as matt says. It was the result of negotiations that Matt P had with SNY, which in the realm of Davids "negotiating" with Goliaths, means that there must have been some substantive strength/leverage supporting Matt P's position. (I guess the existence of the Arbitration provision didn't really gut MNKD's negotiating strength as greatly as you have suggested on this board on many occasions?) As you and others have continued to warn us naive investors, big business is a dog-eat-dog world and nobody plays nice, so we know SNY didn't do this out of the goodness of its heart. None of the rest of us know (although there have been numerous reasonable scenarios put forward on this board, with the likelihood that at least one was correct) what that leverage/strength may have been, but we all hope when you find out from your contact in the C-suite at SNY, that you share it with us. Now, does anyone here have any idea when we might see that BK PR? Your answers  1) What makes you think I have access to the Sanofi C-suite? Mannkind's future is tightly tied to Afrezza and Sanofi do not believe Afrezza has a future or they would have stayed in. Given that they don't think there is a future they don't expect to get repaid so writing off that debt now rather than waiting for Mannkind to default (as Sanofi's logic says they must) makes sense. 2) Matt covered this quite nicely before the deal was done. As to the insulin delivery - once they accelerated the insulin put they pretty much had to drop this since Mannkind would have had to produce $30 million of insulin that they had not yet bought. As to the insulin itself - I wonder if Sanofi have it as an API, if not then it's not a huge amount of use to them. To use it they would have to get the Amphastar insulin approved, plus they would have had to disrupt their insulin supply chain for a one time transaction and that's not good practice. 3) "It wasn't a gesture at all, it was the security against the LT loan that they forgave". Not true. It was a negotiation and I was quite surprised it went that way - I expected them to retain Valencia and forgive the balance of the debt. Look at what Sanofi conceded: - They settled the balance of their liability on the insulin puts ($30 +$10 million) - They forgave a debt that they didn't expect to collect on which means they can write it off now and shelter current profits rather than have it lying on the books. - They released the Valencia property ($20 million) What did Sanofi gain: - $100 million of losses that they can use now rather than years in the future - A release from Mannkind What did Mannkind get: - The Valencia property ($25 million?) - $30 million future income bought forwards - The elimination of a distant debt The market appears to see it differently than you.... it lengthened our runway and also cleaned up our balance sheet a bit.. that may not mean that much to you as inferred by your immediate assumptions and statements... Honestly I don't care what SNY "thinks" ... cuz they blew it .. plain and simple ..
It bought us a little more time... and as you can see MNKD isn't one to give up... nor am I .... cuz I know what Afrezza is ... and what it can do for people with diabetes....
I believe in what this company is trying to do... Those of you who only look at the more mundane side of things ... the fundamentals... the numbers... blah blah blah ... fine.. I read your posts and sometimes wonder if you are short or long.. I also consider what you have to say cuz sometimes there is useful information that I need to hear... however, I believe in MNKD... Mike C ... Matt P ... and so far nothing you have said has made me waiver from what I believe in .. Its a long shot yes... but I am risk taker... and its my risk.... a risk in something that is amazing!! And MNKD is still here!!!! At least for the next few 6 months or so... and as far as I can see they have no intention to fail .. and I'm in their boat.. and proud to be .. best wishes...
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Post by audiomr on Nov 11, 2016 16:20:56 GMT -5
PAHale partner Rev tiered 12-15% royalty (can be significant) in addition to milestones from RLS products now that many states passed medical and/or recreational MJ. Canada, China... Stay tuned... whats the chances of PAHale partner signing up before EPI hale partner since epi hale IND is the one in progress for now.? Now that Mannkind has a sales force, I doubt it will seek a partner for EpiHale. Matt has said previously that they intended to commercialize it themselves. Maybe some of the other products with longer runways and larger R&D and trial costs. |
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 11, 2016 17:45:25 GMT -5
The market appears to see it differently than you.... it lengthened our runway and also cleaned up our balance sheet a bit.. that may not mean that much to you as inferred by your immediate assumptions and statements... Honestly I don't care what SNY "thinks" ... cuz they blew it .. plain and simple ..
It bought us a little more time... and as you can see MNKD isn't one to give up... nor am I .... cuz I know what Afrezza is ... and what it can do for people with diabetes....
I believe in what this company is trying to do... Those of you who only look at the more mundane side of things ... the fundamentals... the numbers... blah blah blah ... fine.. I read your posts and sometimes wonder if you are short or long.. I also consider what you have to say cuz sometimes there is useful information that I need to hear... however, I believe in MNKD... Mike C ... Matt P ... and so far nothing you have said has made me waiver from what I believe in .. Its a long shot yes... but I am risk taker... and its my risk.... a risk in something that is amazing!! And MNKD is still here!!!! At least for the next few 6 months or so... and as far as I can see they have no intention to fail .. and I'm in their boat.. and proud to be .. best wishes... Sanofi is immaterial now because they are out of the picture entirely. My comments about Sanofi were in reply to the question about why did they do it and I just tried to come up with a rational explanation. Sanofi is constrained by confirmation bias so their actions are framed by their expectation that Mannkind will go bust. It really doesn't matter what the real answer is because that is what they expect. I don't think the market says I am wrong, I think it agrees (my confirmation bias!) as it has pushed the price up to 0.66 but not higher. If the market thought this was back on course now the price would be back where it was in the Sanofi days but instead it is back where it was in September. I think the price will go higher and may well hit $1.00 by year end. I believe in what the company is trying to do but unfortunately I do not have the money to invest on that basis, I need my investments to make money. Yes I am long but unlike a lot of people here I am not claiming to have huge amounts of stock, I have about 10k of Jan 2018 Calls which are underwater but I can live with that (I have bigger losses in biotech currently  ). Provided the original investment premise remains sound then in my view it's usually just a matter of time. My failing is that I find it difficult to keep quiet when I see people saying things I think are wrong or based on insufficient evidence. Sometimes it's not even that I disagree with them, but rather that I disagree with how they reached their conclusion. The path is as important as the conclusion because you need to know if you are building on sand (to mix my metaphors). Stay strong |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2016 18:21:28 GMT -5
agedhippie $10k worth or 10k calls? thats a huge bet for a type1 who is not even on Afrezza yet and not even tried samples after so many positive results.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 11, 2016 19:39:47 GMT -5
agedhippie $10k worth or 10k calls? thats a huge bet for a type1 who is not even on Afrezza yet and not even tried samples after so many positive results. I was just thinking that! That it was a good amount. |
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 11, 2016 22:55:20 GMT -5
agedhippie $10k worth or 10k calls? thats a huge bet for a type1 who is not even on Afrezza yet and not even tried samples after so many positive results. All things are relative , $10k is a half position for an investment so it's appropriate for a high risk investment with my investing pattern. |
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 11, 2016 22:58:48 GMT -5
agedhippie $10k worth or 10k calls? thats a huge bet for a type1 who is not even on Afrezza yet and not even tried samples after so many positive results. I was just thinking that! That it was a good amount. Compared with the people claiming to have invested $50k, $100k, and up I thought it was quite conservative! |
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 11, 2016 23:06:23 GMT -5
I was just thinking that! That it was a good amount. Compared with the people claiming to have invested $50k, $100k, and up I thought it was quite conservative! Yes good point. But it being in calls you will make out like you have a 100,000 in shares. |
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 11, 2016 23:31:32 GMT -5
Personally, I have made more since we dropped to .64 the day Sanofi announced they were tapping out then ever before in mnkd. I have a solid position that I don't touch, and a pile of shares that I trade every time I get the chance. I go back and forth between mnkd and hecla mining, (HL, the oldest Silver and Gold mining company in the world). I just sold my position in HL, the day before their 3Q cc for a nice profit, (@ 6.60/share), they then came out with a pr announcing a dividend, and that they pretty much broke every record as far as production and earnings. The stock jumped from $6.60 up over $7.30 for 2 days, and is trading now about $6. I used my profits to purchase 12 thousand shares of mnkd that I will eventually sell and re buy HL. I'm hoping to get back in between $5.50 and $5.75, then rinse and repeat. So far I've been able to use profits from one to buy the other.
Gotta love it when a plan comes together.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 12, 2016 13:41:33 GMT -5
Compared with the people claiming to have invested $50k, $100k, and up I thought it was quite conservative! Yes good point. But it being in calls you will make out like you have a 100,000 in shares. It's why I like options If it all works out I will have far more shares than I could have risked buying outright. I think this is going to take a while to resolve otherwise I would have sold puts at my entry point but that is only safe when the upward trajectory is established. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 12, 2016 13:48:49 GMT -5
Yes good point. But it being in calls you will make out like you have a 100,000 in shares. It's why I like options If it all works out I will have far more shares than I could have risked buying outright. I think this is going to take a while to resolve otherwise I would have sold puts at my entry point but that is only safe when the upward trajectory is established. My girl friend asked me the other day, Do you know any rich men? Lol. ( She knows I train rich clients.) I laughed and said, you have no idea how many soon to be rich men I know:-))) |
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Post by BlueCat on Nov 12, 2016 16:44:35 GMT -5
It's why I like options If it all works out I will have far more shares than I could have risked buying outright. I think this is going to take a while to resolve otherwise I would have sold puts at my entry point but that is only safe when the upward trajectory is established. My girl friend asked me the other day, Do you know any rich men? Lol. ( She knows I train rich clients.) I laughed and said, you have no idea how many soon to be rich men I know:-))) Here's hoping for a prosperous future for the long investors here. We could create "The Mannkind Club". Has a nice ring to it. Set up a golf course and spa say, somewhere around Rancho Mirage and club members own units. And I bet we all know someone on the board with the knowledge and local connections to make it happen 😉😉 |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2016 17:30:04 GMT -5
^^ i think this will get smacked down cos people seem to get back to old days - vegas party..etc.. when all it did was go down from 65 cents and then come back up to 65 cents... although company is in a better position than before
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Post by sophie on Nov 12, 2016 21:39:39 GMT -5
You might be right, but I'm betting it'll go back to its old ways of rallying right before the next CC, so if that happens, buy the big dip about a week before the call and you'll make out ok.
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). Provided the original investment premise remains sound then in my view it's usually just a matter of time.
