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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Apr 25, 2017 12:56:36 GMT -5
Cliff Notes/Paraphrase from Nate's Inter-Issue Commentary
Although SP has continued to slide, in Nate’s opinion, there has been nothing to justify this price slide … but it may keep sliding. Nate considered the April 7th 8-K as a non-event. He said there already was a “Change of Control” with several of its top managers. This renewal includes the newly hired executives, since MNKD is transitioning from a manufacturing company to an actual pharmaceutical company. Also, considering the low SP, it may help with the possibility of a hostile takeover. In all, Nate suggests not reading too much into that 8-K. And as of now, there is no buyout offer on the table.
Nate reviewed the Deerfield debt obligations. Although the first $10m payments have been arranged, Nate suggested that the second round has put investors into panic-mode. Nate does not know what Matt’s plans are for that second round of debt payment. Nate spoke with Matt on the phone last Saturday, but Matt was not able to discuss much about that, but Nate offered some observations to put our minds at rest a little.
First, MNKD still owes Deerfield tens of millions of dollars, so Deerfield will want MNKD to succeed. Not only will a healthy, vibrant MNKD insure that Deerfield will get repaid their debt, there will also be significant upside of additional payments they will be entitled to if/when MNKD hits certain milestones for Afrezza sales. So, Deerfield will probably continue to work with, rather than against MNKD for as long as possible.
Second, since Matt is moving forward with the rollout and promotion of Afrezza on many fronts (and hiring many to accomplish that), so he seems to have his focus on the game plan of making Afrezza a success, rather than planning bankruptcy.
Finally, as time moves on, we get closer to hitting the “inflection point” where enough doctors finally feel comfortable enough with the results they have seen in a handful of their patients that they will start to more aggressively move the rest of their practice over to Afrezza.
Nate has been getting first-hand feedback from Afrezza patients that he knows along with the social-media feedback. He believes more strongly than ever that Afrezza really is all that we hoped it would be, and if the company can survive the near-term, the current market cap is WAY too low, which suggests that the stock should be bought hand over fist at these levels.
However, he understands that most of his readers (and us) are too deep into this investment, so, until we get some more clarity into the near-term financial outlook, he cautions to take a wait and see approach since “trends often go on for far longer than seems reasonable”. He said we are approaching the “extreme fear” end of the fear/greed spectrum or the pendulum swing. Although $.92 is a crazy SP, it could get cut in half again before cooler heads prevail.
So, hang in there.
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Post by kbrion77 on Apr 25, 2017 13:01:55 GMT -5
Cliff Notes/Paraphrase from Nate's Inter-Issue Commentary Although SP has continued to slide, in Nate’s opinion, there has been nothing to justify this price slide … but it may keep sliding. Nate considered the April 7th 8-K as a non-event. He said there already was a “Change of Control” with several of its top managers. This renewal includes the newly hired executives, since MNKD is transitioning from a manufacturing company to an actual pharmaceutical company. Also, considering the low SP, it may help with the possibility of a hostile takeover. In all, Nate suggests not reading too much into that 8-K. And as of now, there is no buyout offer on the table. Nate reviewed the Deerfield debt obligations. Although the first $10m payments have been arranged, Nate suggested that the second round has put investors into panic-mode. Nate does not know what Matt’s plans are for that second round of debt payment. Nate spoke with Matt on the phone last Saturday, but Matt was not able to discuss much about that, but Nate offered some observations to put our minds at rest a little. First, MNKD still owes Deerfield tens of millions of dollars, so Deerfield will want MNKD to succeed. Not only will a healthy, vibrant MNKD insure that Deerfield will get repaid their debt, there will also be significant upside of additional payments they will be entitled to if/when MNKD hits certain milestones for Afrezza sales. So, Deerfield will probably continue to work with, rather than against MNKD for as long as possible.
Second, since Matt is moving forward with the rollout and promotion of Afrezza on many fronts (and hiring many to accomplish that), so he seems to have his focus on the game plan of making Afrezza a success, rather than planning bankruptcy. Finally, as time moves on, we get closer to hitting the “inflection point” where enough doctors finally feel comfortable enough with the results they have seen in a handful of their patients that they will start to more aggressively move the rest of their practice over to Afrezza. Nate has been getting first-hand feedback from Afrezza patients that he knows along with the social-media feedback. He believes more strongly than ever that Afrezza really is all that we hoped it would be, and if the company can survive the near-term, the current market cap is WAY too low, which suggests that the stock should be bought hand over fist at these levels. However, he understands that most of his readers (and us) are too deep into this investment, so, until we get some more clarity into the near-term financial outlook, he cautions to take a wait and see approach since “trends often go on for far longer than seems reasonable”. He said we are approaching the “extreme fear” end of the fear/greed spectrum of the pendulum swing. Although $.92 is a crazy SP, it could get cut in half again before cooler heads prevail. So, hang in there. Deerfield will absolutely do what is best for Deerfield. If they believe gutting MNKD or driving them into bankruptcy for full ownership is what is best than that is what they will do. Kind of tired of people holding out that they hope Deerfield are "good guys".
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 25, 2017 13:05:44 GMT -5
mnkdismyretirementplan: Thank you! 10 thumbs up!! All negative Nancy's will be put on block:-))
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Post by silentknight on Apr 25, 2017 13:11:31 GMT -5
Cliff Notes/Paraphrase from Nate's Inter-Issue Commentary Although SP has continued to slide, in Nate’s opinion, there has been nothing to justify this price slide … but it may keep sliding. Nate considered the April 7th 8-K as a non-event. He said there already was a “Change of Control” with several of its top managers. This renewal includes the newly hired executives, since MNKD is transitioning from a manufacturing company to an actual pharmaceutical company. Also, considering the low SP, it may help with the possibility of a hostile takeover. In all, Nate suggests not reading too much into that 8-K. And as of now, there is no buyout offer on the table. Nate reviewed the Deerfield debt obligations. Although the first $10m payments have been arranged, Nate suggested that the second round has put investors into panic-mode. Nate does not know what Matt’s plans are for that second round of debt payment. Nate spoke with Matt on the phone last Saturday, but Matt was not able to discuss much about that, but Nate offered some observations to put our minds at rest a little. First, MNKD still owes Deerfield tens of millions of dollars, so Deerfield will want MNKD to succeed. Not only will a healthy, vibrant MNKD insure that Deerfield will get repaid their debt, there will also be significant upside of additional payments they will be entitled to if/when MNKD hits certain milestones for Afrezza sales. So, Deerfield will probably continue to work with, rather than against MNKD for as long as possible. Second, since Matt is moving forward with the rollout and promotion of Afrezza on many fronts (and hiring many to accomplish that), so he seems to have his focus on the game plan of making Afrezza a success, rather than planning bankruptcy. Finally, as time moves on, we get closer to hitting the “inflection point” where enough doctors finally feel comfortable enough with the results they have seen in a handful of their patients that they will start to more aggressively move the rest of their practice over to Afrezza. Nate has been getting first-hand feedback from Afrezza patients that he knows along with the social-media feedback. He believes more strongly than ever that Afrezza really is all that we hoped it would be, and if the company can survive the near-term, the current market cap is WAY too low, which suggests that the stock should be bought hand over fist at these levels.However, he understands that most of his readers (and us) are too deep into this investment, so, until we get some more clarity into the near-term financial outlook, he cautions to take a wait and see approach since “trends often go on for far longer than seems reasonable”. He said we are approaching the “extreme fear” end of the fear/greed spectrum or the pendulum swing. Although $.92 is a crazy SP, it could get cut in half again before cooler heads prevail. So, hang in there. That is certainly one way to look at it, but with all due respect, Nate's been wrong about MNKD for a long time. We all were, but I certainly wouldn't be urging folks to buy more if I had been so wrong for so long. Perhaps he's right about things this time, but I'll be holding off on investing another cent into MNKD until they can give me some indication, ANY indication, that my money will do anything other than disappear after I purchase more of their stock. It's tempting to try and average down, but I've fell into that trap before. All I end up doing is throwing good money after bad.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 25, 2017 13:26:51 GMT -5
mnkdismyretirementplan: Thank you! 10 thumbs up!! All negative Nancy's will be put on block:-)) Yikes. The pitchforks are going to be turned on the skeptics rather than management. Glad I can blend into my surroundings. Was nice knowing you Silent. Or wait, I really am you Actually I'm pretty much in line with Nate as to action... he recommends wait and see according to this.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 25, 2017 13:29:19 GMT -5
mnkdismyretirementplan: Thank you! 10 thumbs up!! All negative Nancy's will be put on block:-)) Yikes. The pitchforks are going to be turned on the skeptics rather than management. Glad I can blend into my surroundings. Was nice knowing you Silent. Or wait, I really am you Actually I'm pretty much in line with Nate as to action... he recommends wait and see according to this. I can't hear you!:-)
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Post by madog365 on Apr 25, 2017 13:30:59 GMT -5
I am still waiting on marketing to start....can only hope at this point i see it soon.
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 25, 2017 13:42:15 GMT -5
Cliff Notes/Paraphrase from Nate's Inter-Issue Commentary ... Although $.92 is a crazy SP, it could get cut in half again before cooler heads prevail. Was that "it could get cut in half again" part of what Nate wrote, or your own concluding summary point? And (this is just an observation, not specifically directed to you) I wonder if Nate's Commentary today is a significant part of why we are seeing positive price action today.
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Post by factspls88 on Apr 25, 2017 14:16:51 GMT -5
Thanks for posting. Good to read that he has spoken with Matt recently.
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Post by oldfishtowner on Apr 25, 2017 14:44:20 GMT -5
If Deerfield wanted to drive MNKD into bankruptcy to take over the company, the why the exchange of debt for stock? MNKD only has to come up with another $10 million to meets this year's payment of principal. In addition, after this payment, the Mann Group has about as much stake in MNKD as Deerfield with its debt and stock holdings. It will not sit by and see Deerfield render those worthless.
Not knowing what is going on behind the scenes is driving me crazy just as much as any of you, but there seems to be a chance that Deerfield is indeed trying to give MNKD some leeway. Looks to me like MNKD does not have the $10 million still due on the principal payment, but that it will have the money by the July due date, otherwise why pay only the $4 million now?
My take is that management is working on some means of funding and Deerfield is buying the story. Without having any idea of what the plan is, though, I am trying not to be too optimistic.
While I see the Deerfield deal as a positive, for the moment, we are not out of the woods yet.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2017 14:49:21 GMT -5
Heh :0}} strong buy at $5 once in a lifetime at current levels
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2017 14:51:25 GMT -5
Cliff Notes/Paraphrase from Nate's Inter-Issue Commentary Although SP has continued to slide, in Nate’s opinion, there has been nothing to justify this price slide … but it may keep sliding. Nate considered the April 7th 8-K as a non-event. He said there already was a “Change of Control” with several of its top managers. This renewal includes the newly hired executives, since MNKD is transitioning from a manufacturing company to an actual pharmaceutical company. Also, considering the low SP, it may help with the possibility of a hostile takeover. In all, Nate suggests not reading too much into that 8-K. And as of now, there is no buyout offer on the table. Nate reviewed the Deerfield debt obligations. Although the first $10m payments have been arranged, Nate suggested that the second round has put investors into panic-mode. Nate does not know what Matt’s plans are for that second round of debt payment. Nate spoke with Matt on the phone last Saturday, but Matt was not able to discuss much about that, but Nate offered some observations to put our minds at rest a little. First, MNKD still owes Deerfield tens of millions of dollars, so Deerfield will want MNKD to succeed. Not only will a healthy, vibrant MNKD insure that Deerfield will get repaid their debt, there will also be significant upside of additional payments they will be entitled to if/when MNKD hits certain milestones for Afrezza sales. So, Deerfield will probably continue to work with, rather than against MNKD for as long as possible. Second, since Matt is moving forward with the rollout and promotion of Afrezza on many fronts (and hiring many to accomplish that), so he seems to have his focus on the game plan of making Afrezza a success, rather than planning bankruptcy. Finally, as time moves on, we get closer to hitting the “inflection point” where enough doctors finally feel comfortable enough with the results they have seen in a handful of their patients that they will start to more aggressively move the rest of their practice over to Afrezza. Nate has been getting first-hand feedback from Afrezza patients that he knows along with the social-media feedback. He believes more strongly than ever that Afrezza really is all that we hoped it would be, and if the company can survive the near-term, the current market cap is WAY too low, which suggests that the stock should be bought hand over fist at these levels. However, he understands that most of his readers (and us) are too deep into this investment, so, until we get some more clarity into the near-term financial outlook, he cautions to take a wait and see approach since “trends often go on for far longer than seems reasonable”. He said we are approaching the “extreme fear” end of the fear/greed spectrum or the pendulum swing. A lthough $.92 is a crazy SP, it could get cut in half again before cooler heads prevail. So, hang in there. LOL- where was this logic pre r/s when he went all in?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2017 14:54:09 GMT -5
Yikes. The pitchforks are going to be turned on the skeptics rather than management. Glad I can blend into my surroundings. Was nice knowing you Silent. Or wait, I really am you Actually I'm pretty much in line with Nate as to action... he recommends wait and see according to this. I can't hear you!:-) I can't hear you I only count twitter reviews ok enough of my comedic relief I have to get back to work. Most of my posts will be deleted anyway.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 25, 2017 14:59:25 GMT -5
If Deerfield wanted to drive MNKD into bankruptcy to take over the company, the why the exchange of debt for stock? MNKD only has to come up with another $10 million to meets this year's payment of principal. In addition, after this payment, the Mann Group has about as much stake in MNKD as Deerfield with its debt and stock holdings. It will not sit by and see Deerfield render those worthless. Not knowing what is going on behind the scenes is driving me crazy just as much as any of you, but there seems to be a chance that Deerfield is indeed trying to give MNKD some leeway. Looks to me like MNKD does not have the $10 million still due on the principal payment, but that it will have the money by the July due date, otherwise why pay only the $4 million now? My take is that management is working on some means of funding and Deerfield is buying the story. Without having any idea of what the plan is, though, I am trying not to be too optimistic. While I see the Deerfield deal as a positive, for the moment, we are not out of the woods yet. Unless the Mann Group has money to bring to the table there isn't an awful lot they can do other than sit by if things indeed get to a point of bankruptcy... and they likely do not have money. As a creditor, they could end up with some equity stake in a restructured MNKD, but they wouldn't have a lot of leverage if Deerfield is there as the creditor willing to fund coming out of bankruptcy. The restructuring of debt may indeed indicate that Deerfield isn't in a rush for a takeover. Whether that is good or bad would be hard to know. If they are still waiting and seeing as to whether Afrezza is worth plowing in substantially more money it could make sense to get what cash they can out by this discounted equity (and immediately selling it). If that is the case, the question would be what they will do if/once they are convinced Afrezza is worth significant further investment... do it in a way that is friendly to current shareholders... or not. They might be nice, but I wouldn't put much confidence into that. The only thing that would then guarantee Deerfield playing nice if they wanted to bet on Afrezza would be if there are other entities that could save Mannkind that are also convinced and willing to act.
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Post by matt on Apr 25, 2017 15:34:56 GMT -5
The history on Deerfield is pretty clear and they do what is best for their investors as is their fiduciary duty; they don't act like Santa Claus. MNKD can definitely come up with $10 million in cash in July, either by borrowing it from the Mann Group or else Deerfield can take more discounted shares in an exchange transaction. Deerfield has been involved in a number of bankruptcies, including Dendreon, and by securing their note with the production facility they essentially lock up the company. Any buyer of the technology has to settle with Deerfield to get the manufacturing assets back.
Deerfield isn't looking to take over the company, they just want to get paid. They are a lender that gets some milestone-based upsides, which juices their return, but they like secured debt and their financing costs for THEIR balance sheet reflects that they take a secured debt level of risk, not equity risk. If they walk away whole or with a small loss they will be happy. Generally, they have not acted like a private equity firm that goes in and buys up a company so that it can be turned around. That is not their forte, and every company should stick to what they are good at.
Don't expect the Mann Group to act like a private equity fund either. The Mann trusts have to be run according to the trust documents Al Mann left behind, and the trustees have a legal obligation to follow those trust indentures for the benefit of the named beneficiaries. Unless Al specifically provided that the trusts could be drained for the benefit of keeping MNKD alive, and to the financial detriment of the other intended beneficiaries, then the trustees cannot let that happen. That is not likely.
We know that company has about $31 million in cash as of today, we know $10 million is owed to Deerfield in July, we know the burn rate is about $10 million a month, that the remaining Mann Group credit is $30 million, and that the number of unrestricted authorized shares available to issue absent a shareholder vote to authorize more is about 25 million shares, which would net between $10 and $14 million in cash proceeds depending on discounts and warrant coverage. Anybody with a calculator can figure out that crunch time has arrived.
Beyond that everything is speculation. Nobody knows if Matt is days away from pulling another rabbit from the hat or whether he has finally run out of bunnies.
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