|
|
Post by BlueCat on Jul 6, 2017 11:47:43 GMT -5
IMO - price dropping according to combo of regular shenanigans combined with the tapping of the Mann funds. That was a core safety net.
There are others, but with more dilution. So glass half empty - where's the net? Half full - buying time because they (MNKD) are still bullish.
Truth is both.
Either way, holding til end. Sigh.
|
|
|
|
Post by InvesterSam on Jul 6, 2017 13:18:28 GMT -5
NRx (and TRx) data fluctuate week to week and it is hard to find a trend in the numbers. I tried 5 week moving average (the current week plus 2 weeks before and after) and could see clear changes in trend. Table below shows 2017 NRx numbers together with 5 week moving averages.
2017 NRx Data
Period 1) 1/6/ - 2/10/2017: 0.2 ct/wk in 5wk MA
NRx 5wk MA NRx
12/23/2016 130
12/30/2016 119
1/6/2017 107 115
1/13/2017 106 118
1/20/2017 111 118
1/27/2017 146 117
2/3/2017 120 118
2/10/2017 102 116
Period 2) 2/17 - 5/19/2017: 3.1 ct/wk in 5wk MA (r-square 94.4% = very strong trend)
NRx MA
2/17/2017 109 108 (maybe transition)
2/24/2017 105 109
3/3/2017 104 113
3/10/2017 125 118
3/17/2017 124 124
3/24/2017 133 128
3/31/2017 134 131
4/7/2017 123 130
4/14/2017 142 134
4/21/2017 117 136
4/28/2017 155 144
5/5/2017 141 145
5/12/2017 164 148
5/19/2017 149 142 (maybe another transition)
Period 3) 5/26 - 6/9/2017: 11.2 ct/wk in 5wk MA
NRx MA
5/26/2017 133 142
6/2/2017 121 155
6/9/2017 145 165
6/16/2017 226 176 (4wk MA)
6/23/2017 199 188 (3wk MA)
Until 2/17/2017, there was no change in NRx 5wk moving average. Then, NRx started grew about 3 counts/week until 5/12/2017. For the last 5 weeks, the trend has changed again once more and NRx grew about 11/wk, not enough but a significant improvement.
Projection if this trend continues:
NRx
6/30/2017 191 (to have the 5wk MA in line with the trend)
7/7/2017 177 (to have the 5wk MA in line with the trend)
If 11.2 ct/wk continues, we will have following NRx at the end of next couple years.
NRx
12/29/2017 490
12/28/2018 1072
What to look for tomorrow’s NRx?
If we get around 191 NRx, the increase rate of 5wk MA is the same as the previous 3 weeks (11.2/wk rate).
If we get around 230 NRx, the increase rate of 5wk MA would be 20/wk rate in comparison to previous week’s, probably a new trend (parabolic or exponential, of course we need more data to confirm).
Is NRx = 226 (81 weekly increase on 6/16/2017) real?
Spencer Osborne wrote that it was ADA Conference Bump in Seeking Alpha article. However, it may not be the case. I remember Mannkind had a lot more papers and presentations during 2016 ADA conference than this year’s and did not see any bump. In fact, NRx dropped in significant magnitude.
2016 ADA June 10-14
NRx
6/10/2016 106
6/17/2016 93
6/24/2016 88
2017 ADA June 9-13
NRx
6/9/2017 145
6/16/2017 226
6/23/2017 199
I believe 81 weekly increase in NRx is significant. In the past, there has been 20-40 usual fluctuation in NRx in week to week comparison. Until 6/16/2017, the highest weekly increase and drop in NRx happened 9/18/2015 (75 increase) and 11/27/2015 (130 drop). The 81 weekly increase in 6/16/2017 is the highest we ever saw and may well be the starting point of a new trend. Then, NRx at the end of 2017 and 2018 could be much higher than the numbers above.
My question to the board is how many NRx (or TRx) we need to convince the institutions to buy into MNKD. I am so curious to hear the opinions.
|
|
|
|
Post by madog365 on Jul 6, 2017 13:34:41 GMT -5
Your analysis does not take into account advertising which should disrupt any kind of trends of previous weeks and months. We have been waiting for DTC to start since the approval of Afrezza over 2?3? years ago and this July is the month it happens.
If Damon and Charles can reach large enough audiences with a compelling message, we could see NRX spike above 1,000 even at some point in Q3. Add in some positive developments on the international side in UAE or Brazil or even One Drop - and much of the value will be restored to the SP.
|
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Jul 6, 2017 15:28:07 GMT -5
NRx (and TRx) data fluctuate week to week and it is hard to find a trend in the numbers. I tried 5 week moving average (the current week plus 2 weeks before and after) and could see clear changes in trend. Table below shows 2017 NRx numbers together with 5 week moving averages. 2017 NRx Data
Period 1) 1/6/ - 2/10/2017: 0.2 ct/wk in 5wk MA NRx 5wk MA NRx 12/23/2016 130 12/30/2016 119 1/6/2017 107 115 1/13/2017 106 118 1/20/2017 111 118 1/27/2017 146 117 2/3/2017 120 118 2/10/2017 102 116 Period 2) 2/17 - 5/19/2017: 3.1 ct/wk in 5wk MA (r-square 94.4% = very strong trend) NRx MA2/17/2017 109 108 (maybe transition) 2/24/2017 105 109 3/3/2017 104 113 3/10/2017 125 118 3/17/2017 124 124 3/24/2017 133 128 3/31/2017 134 131 4/7/2017 123 130 4/14/2017 142 134 4/21/2017 117 136 4/28/2017 155 144 5/5/2017 141 145 5/12/2017 164 148 5/19/2017 149 142 (maybe another transition) Period 3) 5/26 - 6/9/2017: 11.2 ct/wk in 5wk MA NRx MA5/26/2017 133 142 6/2/2017 121 155 6/9/2017 145 165 6/16/2017 226 176 (4wk MA) 6/23/2017 199 188 (3wk MA) Until 2/17/2017, there was no change in NRx 5wk moving average. Then, NRx started grew about 3 counts/week until 5/12/2017. For the last 5 weeks, the trend has changed again once more and NRx grew about 11/wk, not enough but a significant improvement. Projection if this trend continues:
NRx 6/30/2017 191 (to have the 5wk MA in line with the trend) 7/7/2017 177 (to have the 5wk MA in line with the trend) If 11.2 ct/wk continues, we will have following NRx at the end of next couple years. NRx12/29/2017 490 12/28/2018 1072 What to look for tomorrow’s NRx?
If we get around 191 NRx, the increase rate of 5wk MA is the same as the previous 3 weeks (11.2/wk rate). If we get around 230 NRx, the increase rate of 5wk MA would be 20/wk rate in comparison to previous week’s, probably a new trend (parabolic or exponential, of course we need more data to confirm). Is NRx = 226 (81 weekly increase on 6/16/2017) real?
Spencer Osborne wrote that it was ADA Conference Bump in Seeking Alpha article. However, it may not be the case. I remember Mannkind had a lot more papers and presentations during 2016 ADA conference than this year’s and did not see any bump. In fact, NRx dropped in significant magnitude. 2016 ADA June 10-14 NRx 6/10/2016 106 6/17/2016 93 6/24/2016 88 2017 ADA June 9-13 NRx 6/9/2017 145 6/16/2017 226 6/23/2017 199 I believe 81 weekly increase in NRx is significant. In the past, there has been 20-40 usual fluctuation in NRx in week to week comparison. Until 6/16/2017, the highest weekly increase and drop in NRx happened 9/18/2015 ( 75 increase) and 11/27/2015 ( 130 drop). The 81 weekly increase in 6/16/2017 is the highest we ever saw and may well be the starting point of a new trend. Then, NRx at the end of 2017 and 2018 could be much higher than the numbers above. My question to the board is how many NRx (or TRx) we need to convince the institutions to buy into MNKD. I am so curious to hear the opinions. In my humble opinion, MNKD needs to be atleast to 50% cash flow break even to attract institutions. That would roughly be 2-2.5 Million dollars per week in sales since we keep about 40% of the revenue. Don't forget to add what the DTC budget will be, and my guess from selling subscription shoes/ fashion it will be north of 1-2 Million dollars per week. so I think once we get above 2500 scripts total per week, there will start to be more interest. |
|
|
|
Post by tomson1355 on Jul 6, 2017 15:41:30 GMT -5
Sam, are you using each week as the middle week in a 5 week average? I couldn't make sense of the numbers or why you had only 4 weeks and 3 weeks for the last two weeks, until I realized that was what you had done. I wonder if the numbers would have more clarity if you used the 5 trailing weeks for the moving average.
Thanks, though, for running those numbers, and pointing out that the rate of change is increasing.
|
|
|
|
Post by InvesterSam on Jul 6, 2017 16:17:42 GMT -5
Sam, are you using each week as the middle week in a 5 week average? I couldn't make sense of the numbers or why you had only 4 weeks and 3 weeks for the last two weeks, until I realized that was what you had done. I wonder if the numbers would have more clarity if you used the 5 trailing weeks for the moving average. Thanks, though, for running those numbers, and pointing out that the rate of change is increasing. Yes. I used the middle week as the time of 5-week moving average. If you use 5 trailing weeks, the moving average value will be the same. Only difference will be the corresponding week which will be the latest week in case of trailing average. For example, the average of the last 5 week's NRx is 165 [=(133+121+145+226+199)/5], I assigned the value to the middle week (6/9/2017). If trailing average is used, it will be assigned to (6/23/2017). I thought the middle week would relate to outside events (causal factors) better. Last transition in NRx happened 5/19 - 5/26 that was just after additional sales rep. And it might be the main reason for the trend change (from 3/wk to 11/wk). |
|
|
|
Post by promann on Jul 6, 2017 16:36:09 GMT -5
Personally I think it is impossible to estimate script numbers. I could be wrong but I think we are near a inflection point when doctors are starting to feel more comfortable prescribing and are beginning to see great results and its benefits. Once awareness coincides with doctors liking the results sky's the limit. We could see much higher numbers then investersam predicts..
|
|
|
|
Post by InvesterSam on Jul 6, 2017 16:48:23 GMT -5
My question to the board is how many NRx (or TRx) we need to convince the institutions to buy into MNKD. I am so curious to hear the opinions. In my humble opinion, MNKD needs to be atleast to 50% cash flow break even to attract institutions. That would roughly be 2-2.5 Million dollars per week in sales since we keep about 40% of the revenue. Don't forget to add what the DTC budget will be, and my guess from selling subscription shoes/ fashion it will be north of 1-2 Million dollars per week. so I think once we get above 2500 scripts total per week, there will start to be more interest. Thanks. If everything lined up perfect, TRx = 2500 could happen in a brink of an eye. Cheers! |
|
|
|
Post by goyocafe on Jul 6, 2017 17:49:16 GMT -5
In my humble opinion, MNKD needs to be atleast to 50% cash flow break even to attract institutions. That would roughly be 2-2.5 Million dollars per week in sales since we keep about 40% of the revenue. Don't forget to add what the DTC budget will be, and my guess from selling subscription shoes/ fashion it will be north of 1-2 Million dollars per week. so I think once we get above 2500 scripts total per week, there will start to be more interest. Thanks. If everything lined up perfect, TRx = 2500 could happen in a brink of an eye. Cheers! What a fitting typo! The brink of an eye, the brink of extinction, the brink of financial ruin. Why not? Perfect typo! Thanks for the inadvertent chuckle. |
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Jul 6, 2017 18:22:25 GMT -5
Personally I think it is impossible to estimate script numbers. I could be wrong but I think we are near a inflection point when doctors are starting to feel more comfortable prescribing and are beginning to see great results and its benefits. Once awareness coincides with doctors liking the results sky's the limit. We could see much higher numbers then investersam predicts.. " I could be wrong but I think we are near a inflection point when doctors are starting to feel more comfortable prescribing and are beginning to see great results and its benefits." That introductory clause should be mandatory on every post written on this Board!  |
|
|
|
Post by straightly on Jul 6, 2017 19:21:25 GMT -5
Personally I think it is impossible to estimate script numbers. I could be wrong but I think we are near a inflection point when doctors are starting to feel more comfortable prescribing and are beginning to see great results and its benefits. Once awareness coincides with doctors liking the results sky's the limit. We could see much higher numbers then investersam predicts.. "Once awareness coincides with doctors liking the results sky's the limit." You can say that again. |
|
|
|
Post by straightly on Jul 6, 2017 19:24:08 GMT -5
Personally I think it is impossible to estimate script numbers. I could be wrong but I think we are near a inflection point when doctors are starting to feel more comfortable prescribing and are beginning to see great results and its benefits. Once awareness coincides with doctors liking the results sky's the limit. We could see much higher numbers then investersam predicts.. "Personally I think it is impossible to estimate script numbers." I agree, but I am still expecting to see > 300 tomorrow. |
|
|
|
Post by straightly on Jul 6, 2017 19:33:26 GMT -5
Thanks. If everything lined up perfect, TRx = 2500 could happen in a brink of an eye. Cheers! What a fitting typo! The brink of an eye, the brink of extinction, the brink of financial ruin. Why not? Perfect typo! Thanks for the inadvertent chuckle. "Don't forget to add what the DTC budget" Personally, I believe MNKD made a conscious decision NOT to run a big DTC campaign on TV and I for one believe that was a wise choice. I believe we have just figured out a somewhat reliable way to get new patients, we are still figuring out how to keep patients. We are racing against cash burn but every prescription written is a little bit of longer run way. We simply cannot gamble on ONE hit and miss campaign. |
|
|
|
Post by falconquest on Jul 6, 2017 20:01:41 GMT -5
Thanks. If everything lined up perfect, TRx = 2500 could happen in a brink of an eye. Cheers! What a fitting typo! The brink of an eye, the brink of extinction, the brink of financial ruin. Why not? Perfect typo! Thanks for the inadvertent chuckle. Interesting perspective, I read it as an inadvertent reference to a Chinese deal. .......but I could be wrong. |
|
|
|
Post by slugworth008 on Jul 6, 2017 23:51:09 GMT -5
What a fitting typo! The brink of an eye, the brink of extinction, the brink of financial ruin. Why not? Perfect typo! Thanks for the inadvertent chuckle. Interesting perspective, I read it as an inadvertent reference to a Chinese deal. .......but I could be wrong. I was brinking the same thing. |
|
