|
|
Post by traderdennis on Jul 7, 2017 7:51:02 GMT -5
What a fitting typo! The brink of an eye, the brink of extinction, the brink of financial ruin. Why not? Perfect typo! Thanks for the inadvertent chuckle. "Don't forget to add what the DTC budget" Personally, I believe MNKD made a conscious decision NOT to run a big DTC campaign on TV and I for one believe that was a wise choice. I believe we have just figured out a somewhat reliable way to get new patients, we are still figuring out how to keep patients. We are racing against cash burn but every prescription written is a little bit of longer run way. We simply cannot gamble on ONE hit and miss campaign. I can understand the thinking, but the status quo is death by a 1000 cuts and the runway will only extend so far into November. |
|
|
|
Post by saxcmann on Jul 7, 2017 8:56:06 GMT -5
"Don't forget to add what the DTC budget" Personally, I believe MNKD made a conscious decision NOT to run a big DTC campaign on TV and I for one believe that was a wise choice. I believe we have just figured out a somewhat reliable way to get new patients, we are still figuring out how to keep patients. We are racing against cash burn but every prescription written is a little bit of longer run way. We simply cannot gamble on ONE hit and miss campaign. I can understand the thinking, but the status quo is death by a 1000 cuts and the runway will only extend so far into November. two ways of thinking...by November new ultra label and scripts increasing above 500 weekly and pps moves above $3 and mnkd gets no partner deal and dilutes shareholders as we get screwed again. (most likely scenario in my opinion) Other bet is MC get additional funding through partnership deal(s) by November with ultra label and scripts increasing. shorts will be squeezed if upfront cash deal extends runway 18-24 months or deal is with big pharma name. what is your bet? |
|
|
|
Post by straightly on Jul 7, 2017 9:25:29 GMT -5
I can understand the thinking, but the status quo is death by a 1000 cuts and the runway will only extend so far into November. two ways of thinking...by November new ultra label and scripts increasing above 500 weekly and pps moves above $3 and mnkd gets no partner deal and dilutes shareholders as we get screwed again. (most likely scenario in my opinion) Other bet is MC get additional funding through partnership deal(s) by November with ultra label and scripts increasing. shorts will be squeezed if upfront cash deal extends runway 18-24 months or deal is with big pharma name. what is your bet? Neither. I still think we haven't cracked the case for keeping patients. Last number show improvements, but lacking. Patience for patients will be my bet. |
|
|
|
Post by saxcmann on Jul 7, 2017 9:40:23 GMT -5
two ways of thinking...by November new ultra label and scripts increasing above 500 weekly and pps moves above $3 and mnkd gets no partner deal and dilutes shareholders as we get screwed again. (most likely scenario in my opinion) Other bet is MC get additional funding through partnership deal(s) by November with ultra label and scripts increasing. shorts will be squeezed if upfront cash deal extends runway 18-24 months or deal is with big pharma name. what is your bet? Neither. I still think we haven't cracked the case for keeping patients. Last number show improvements, but lacking. Patience for patients will be my bet. afrezza retention is comparable to humolog and novolog now... |
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Jul 7, 2017 11:17:16 GMT -5
Neither. I still think we haven't cracked the case for keeping patients. Last number show improvements, but lacking. Patience for patients will be my bet. afrezza retention is comparable to humolog and novolog now... Can you show a chart with similar refill rates for afrezza humolog and novlog? I don't believe that statement unless I can see some metrics. |
|
|
|
Post by saxcmann on Jul 7, 2017 11:28:00 GMT -5
afrezza retention is comparable to humolog and novolog now... Can you show a chart with similar refill rates for afrezza humolog and novlog? I don't believe that statement unless I can see some metrics. Just going off what my endo friend told me. |
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Jul 7, 2017 11:37:27 GMT -5
I can understand the thinking, but the status quo is death by a 1000 cuts and the runway will only extend so far into November. two ways of thinking...by November new ultra label and scripts increasing above 500 weekly and pps moves above $3 and mnkd gets no partner deal and dilutes shareholders as we get screwed again. (most likely scenario in my opinion) Other bet is MC get additional funding through partnership deal(s) by November with ultra label and scripts increasing. shorts will be squeezed if upfront cash deal extends runway 18-24 months or deal is with big pharma name. what is your bet? Going from 250 to 325+ in scripts has lowered the stock price off the top of my head 20%. 500 weekly is simply not going to be enough and will likely lower the price again, not have it go up to $3. I don't think you are wrong that a label change could be a catalyst. I am shouting at my lungs saying not doing anything will be the death of the company by November. 2500 weekly scripts getting cutting the cash burn rate in half might attract an investor for a massive dillutive financing. |
|
|
|
Post by saxcmann on Jul 7, 2017 12:01:29 GMT -5
two ways of thinking...by November new ultra label and scripts increasing above 500 weekly and pps moves above $3 and mnkd gets no partner deal and dilutes shareholders as we get screwed again. (most likely scenario in my opinion) Other bet is MC get additional funding through partnership deal(s) by November with ultra label and scripts increasing. shorts will be squeezed if upfront cash deal extends runway 18-24 months or deal is with big pharma name. what is your bet? Going from 250 to 325+ in scripts has lowered the stock price off the top of my head 20%. 500 weekly is simply not going to be enough and will likely lower the price again, not have it go up to $3. I don't think you are wrong that a label change could be a catalyst. I am shouting at my lungs saying not doing anything will be the death of the company by November. 2500 weekly scripts getting cutting the cash burn rate in half might attract an investor for a massive dillutive financing. You are correct, I should not attempt to guess mnkd stock price with shorts controlling things. Predicting future stock price is silly with 25 million shorts, 33+ days of naked shorting and borrow rates at all time highs 85%...who knows how things unfold! My bad, I stand corrected. My 500 scripts remark was hypothetical but if scripts trend continue to rise (even as slow as we are) WS will begin to take note way before 2500, imo. I still think MC gives us positive financial news before November. |
|
|
|
Post by thall on Jul 7, 2017 15:29:37 GMT -5
afrezza retention is comparable to humolog and novolog now... Can you show a chart with similar refill rates for afrezza humolog and novlog? I don't believe that statement unless I can see some metrics. It would be better to have refills steadily climbing than new scripts. Even if new scripts were stuck at 200 a week, if say 40% were staying on it then each week starting at 1 or 2 or 3 month intervals those people would need a refill. That need would recur in another 1 or 2 or 3 months over and over. In the meantime you would have recruited yet another 40% of what ever new scripts were filled and they would start needing refills at 1 or 2 or 3 months. Refill growth would be exponential even if new scripts never increased. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 7, 2017 17:05:36 GMT -5
Can you show a chart with similar refill rates for afrezza humolog and novlog? I don't believe that statement unless I can see some metrics. It would be better to have refills steadily climbing than new scripts. Even if new scripts were stuck at 200 a week, if say 40% were staying on it then each week starting at 1 or 2 or 3 month intervals those people would need a refill. That need would recur in another 1 or 2 or 3 months over and over. In the meantime you would have recruited yet another 40% of what ever new scripts were filled and they would start needing refills at 1 or 2 or 3 months. Refill growth would be exponential even if new scripts never increased. Actually that would yield linear increase in refills not exponential. But no reason to stick with the traditional "math" when expressing our faith in MNKD. As long as Amgen believes that is exponential we'll be ok, right? |
|
|
|
Post by buyitonsale on Jul 7, 2017 17:39:07 GMT -5
US scripts will not move the SP by November. They will certainly help if trends continue to point up. It has been proven in 2 years that without meaningful advertising the doctors are very slow to prescribe and there is no awareness to drive the demand. The sample packs are still in play and inflection point is not close.
The real catalyst will be thousands of orders from UAE or Brazil per week. Even if UAE is the only real possibility by November it would still be enough to sustain the company IMO. There are millions of patients who want it and the insurance / doctors will not be an obstacle. Even at substantially lower price point the volume will help margins and provide enough revenue to break even. Once this is achieved, the international success will breed interest within US market on all fronts (investors, doctors, patients and insurance companies).
|
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Jul 7, 2017 18:40:18 GMT -5
Sax said : "My 500 scripts remark was hypothetical but if scripts trend continue to rise (even as slow as we are) WS will begin to take note way before 2500, imo. I still think MC gives us positive financial news before November." So, it is up to MC to Hammer this home? www.youtube.com/watch?v=otCpCn0l4Wo&list=RDotCpCn0l4Wo#t=50 |
|
|
|
Post by comnkd on Jul 7, 2017 18:57:19 GMT -5
Do the script reporting services like Symphony record global prescription numbers?
|
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Jul 7, 2017 19:18:52 GMT -5
Do the script reporting services like Symphony record global prescription numbers? I heard that they do not. But I just asked a friend in the know. I don't have a link. |
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Jul 7, 2017 22:00:25 GMT -5
Can you show a chart with similar refill rates for afrezza humolog and novlog? I don't believe that statement unless I can see some metrics. Just going off what my endo friend told me. We are just suppose to believe what an endo friend told you? I quoted what my endo told me before launch in 2015 and I was villified. |
|
