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Post by cjm18 on Jul 8, 2017 0:00:59 GMT -5
Just going off what my endo friend told me. We are just suppose to believe what an endo friend told you? I quoted what my endo told me before launch in 2015 and I was villified. In 2015 he said? |
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Post by rossomalley on Jul 8, 2017 8:30:06 GMT -5
US scripts will not move the SP by November. They will certainly help if trends continue to point up. It has been proven in 2 years that without meaningful advertising the doctors are very slow to prescribe and there is no awareness to drive the demand. The sample packs are still in play and inflection point is not close. The real catalyst will be thousands of orders from UAE or Brazil per week. Even if UAE is the only real possibility by November it would still be enough to sustain the company IMO. There are millions of patients who want it and the insurance / doctors will not be an obstacle. Even at substantially lower price point the volume will help margins and provide enough revenue to break even. Once this is achieved, the international success will breed interest within US market on all fronts (investors, doctors, patients and insurance companies). 'Millions of patients' in UAE want Afrezza? How many people do you think live in UAE? And how many (or rather, how few) of them are citizens even covered by national health system? This is even more ridiculous than the idea that we're going to see a big bump in sales from ads on a half-assed reality tv show no one will watch. |
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 8, 2017 8:51:30 GMT -5
The UAE health minister has publicly stated that the country plans to be drawing patients from across the Middle East to UAE's cutting edge health centers. Regardless, international sales of Afrezza has to begin somewhere. UAE will be just the beginning, IMO.
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Post by bioexec25 on Jul 8, 2017 9:19:25 GMT -5
I would add do not undervalue the establishment of a cadence and process for managing Int'l sales and distribution. I actually like the idea of starting in a wealthy hub type market in the middle-east. Prob not near the complexities or regulations of the EU. Crawl - Walk - Run.
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Post by mbseeking on Jul 8, 2017 9:30:11 GMT -5
The UAE health minister has publicly stated that the country plans to be drawing patients from across the Middle East to UAE's cutting edge health centers. Regardless, international sales of Afrezza has to begin somewhere. UAE will be just the beginning, IMO. MN I rarely beg to differ, but I dont think your hypothesis flies this time. UAE wont sell anything to Qatar with current fracas over Al Jazeera and the rest. so flipping that maybe Saudi Arabia.. another Sunni country.. whoops reminds many of the rest of the region are majority Shites . Will they journey to Sunni UAE for Afrezza at this time? Dont think so. Sure Qatar want to get medical tourism going to get off the oil dependency.. and they have the oil money to build facilities.. but will they come? I'm in Bangkok at the moment.. needed a hospital visit.. amazing how many Middle Easters come here for their Western trained medical treatment. |
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Post by saxcmann on Jul 8, 2017 9:47:25 GMT -5
Just going off what my endo friend told me. We are just suppose to believe what an endo friend told you? I quoted what my endo told me before launch in 2015 and I was villified. For me, Yes. If someone has more time than me to check then fine be my guest. |
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 8, 2017 9:57:58 GMT -5
The UAE health minister has publicly stated that the country plans to be drawing patients from across the Middle East to UAE's cutting edge health centers. Regardless, international sales of Afrezza has to begin somewhere. UAE will be just the beginning, IMO. MN I rarely beg to differ, but I dont think your hypothesis flies this time. UAE wont sell anything to Qatar with current fracas over Al Jazeera and the rest. so flipping that maybe Saudi Arabia.. another Sunni country.. whoops reminds many of the rest of the region are majority Shites . Will they journey to Sunni UAE for Afrezza at this time? Dont think so. Sure Qatar want to get medical tourism going to get off the oil dependency.. and they have the oil money to build facilities.. but will they come? I'm in Bangkok at the moment.. needed a hospital visit.. amazing how many Middle Easters come here for their Western trained medical treatment. ME to Bangkok? That's quite a stretch to use for a comparison. I suggest that you read up on the centers in UAE which have been attracting patients from regional countries for years. Their planned new healthcare city simply adds on to what's already there. The UAE healthcare system has been operational for years.  |
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Post by traderdennis on Jul 8, 2017 12:34:28 GMT -5
We are just suppose to believe what an endo friend told you? I quoted what my endo told me before launch in 2015 and I was villified. In 2015 he said? He said the Endocrinology department of KP southern California would not be using Afrezza due to the group opposition of placing hormones into the pulmonary system. The department voted unanimously to oppose using Afrezza. Many of the users who said I was lying or full of shit ended up being booted off of proboards. You can see my posting history on this topic. |
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Post by traderdennis on Jul 8, 2017 12:36:30 GMT -5
We are just suppose to believe what an endo friend told you? I quoted what my endo told me before launch in 2015 and I was villified. For me, Yes. If someone has more time than me to check then fine be my guest. Statement is no better than FUD that is spread by those that are opposed to Afrezza. In your original message it sounded like you had stats to back it up. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Jul 8, 2017 13:28:54 GMT -5
Even if UAE is the only real possibility by November it would still be enough to sustain the company IMO. There are millions of patients who want it and the insurance / doctors will not be an obstacle. 'Millions of patients' in UAE want Afrezza? How many people do you think live in UAE? And how many (or rather, how few) of them are citizens even covered by national health system? This is even more ridiculous than the idea that we're going to see a big bump in sales from ads on a half-assed reality tv show no one will watch. I agree, certainly not millions. And most assuredly not by November! |
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Post by buyitonsale on Jul 8, 2017 15:15:11 GMT -5
1 million of diabetics in UAE. I will not speculate if neighboring countries will be able to gain access to Afrezza easily but once it's in the region I would assume that the
the door will be open for opportunity.
Mannkind needs $8 million a month to operate.
Current retail price per Rx is about $700. I do not know what the wholesale price for UAE would be but even at $200 per Rx we would need only 40K patients.
At $100 per Rx only 80K patients.
If there was an indication from the interested parties in UAE that Afrezza is wanted, then achieving these levels of patients is inline with population.
And most assuredly nobody here knows if it is possible by November or not... at least the possibility of approval and initial order.
Only management and Deerfield know what is behind the scenes and October 31 extension was picked for a reason...
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Post by derek2 on Jul 8, 2017 16:23:57 GMT -5
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 8, 2017 16:55:58 GMT -5
Figures from the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) revealed that, in 2015, 19.3%, almost one in five people, of the UAE population between the ages of 20 and 79 have type 2 diabetes. In 2015, there were over 1 million people living with diabetes in the UAE, placing the country 13th worldwide for age-adjusted comparative prevalence. It is important to note that diabetes is a regional affliction with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar all featuring in the top fifteen countries in terms of prevalence worldwide. One of the key areas of our research at Imperial College London Diabetes Centre is to develop an understanding about the high prevalence of diabetes and obesity in the UAE and wider region. This will enable us to create a strategy around prevention and cure of these conditions. Trends in 2015 also indicate that the prevalence of diabetes in the UAE is rising at a faster rate than both the MENA region and the rest of the world. Rapid economic growth, sedentary lifestyles and unhealthy diets characteristic to the UAE are all risk factors, leading to the number of people with diabetes expecting to double to 2.2 million by 2040. However, an increasing population and a greater understanding of the condition among the communities have also contributed to the increase in patients diagnosed with diabetes. Source: www.icldc.ae/about-us/p/UAE-Diabetes-Trends-And-Numbers |
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Post by traderdennis on Jul 8, 2017 18:40:35 GMT -5
The UAE health minister has publicly stated that the country plans to be drawing patients from across the Middle East to UAE's cutting edge health centers. Regardless, international sales of Afrezza has to begin somewhere. UAE will be just the beginning, IMO. MNholdem If there is a potential deal with the UAE, why is there so little traffic originating from the UAE on the afrezza.com website?  ?? so MNholdem, please explain why almost no traffic originates from the UAE over the last 30 and 90 days, but you so strongly believe that MNKD is going to announce a shipment there?Reasons why I believe it is not likely at all: To be listed as a top 11 country .45% of total traffic is the minimum amount. That would be 162 total visits or 44 unique monthly visitors both very low thresholds to make the list for a country preparing for a new drug. I signed up for a free trial and went back 3 months and still no UAE in the top 20 and the threshold would be about 130 visits over the last three months or .26% of total visits during the last 90 days. Only two countries are listed for investors.mannkind.com, USA and Ukraine. Ukraine is probably where the web developers reside for the third party investor website. pro.similarweb.com/?newSocialUser=true#/website/worldwide-overview/afrezza.com/*/999/1m?webSource=Total |
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Post by mnholdem on Jul 8, 2017 20:20:24 GMT -5
The UAE health minister has publicly stated that the country plans to be drawing patients from across the Middle East to UAE's cutting edge health centers. Regardless, international sales of Afrezza has to begin somewhere. UAE will be just the beginning, IMO. MNholdem If there is a potential deal with the UAE, why is there so little traffic originating from the UAE on the afrezza.com website? ?? so MNholdem, please explain why almost no traffic originates from the UAE over the last 30 and 90 days, but you so strongly believe that MNKD is going to announce a shipment there?[Remaining post clipped] Last year I read a fascinating article about how an investment firm made a killing by buying $millions of shares of a company who announced a M&A a few weeks later. How? The fund manager knew a large corporation was shopping for a company He also knew that this corporation had their own company jet and he began checking incoming flights at airports near several companies he figured the corporation was interested in. When he discovered that the corporate jet arrived and stayed at an airport in Europe for 2-3 weeks near one of the companies he identified as targets, he correctly assumed that negotiations were taking place and he was right. He got creative with his due diligence / fact-finding and became richer. I do quite a bit of research and see no reason why I shouldn't share my DD with fellow ProBoard-MNKD members. It's up to the reader to determine whether my posts are relevant to his/her investment strategy. To answer your bold faced question (above) I honestly don't know if there will be any announcement about a shipment. I continue to research and post information to questions occasionally posed by other members for which I have previously found the answer. Somewhere within this forum, I think I posted an article about UAE's plans. Others have posted Mike's video interview where he mentions wanting to get Afrezza to the UAE. To your point about lack of web traffic from the UAE, I believe there's a logical answer. The UAE utilizes a government run healthcare system of hospitals & clinics. They may not always share the plans for introducing new drugs with the general population or even physicians. I would think this is especially true if they are or have been negotiating with a pharmaceutical company. I public clamor for insulin that doesn't require needles from UAE doctors and patients may give MannKind some leverage on pricing, so wouldn't it be in the best interests of the ministry of health to keep a lid on potential negotiations? Some of my research and findings warrant sharing on ProBoards. I think that if MannKind has sent any shipments to the UAE, it would likely be samples for the ministry to test Afrezza. That is, of course, conjecture since there has been no proof of any shipment and I certainly do know how to find out if a UAE government jet has been at an airport near Danbury or the CA headquarters. I don't "strongly believe" in any imminent announcements, but I'll continue to dig and share what info I think may be interesting. Like all DD, some stuff may influence what I believe may happen, but I'd need tools that are not at my disposal to ever state emphatically what WILL happen. Thanks for asking! |
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